BTRTN: Our Annual Analytically-Based Major League Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions

Occasionally we take a break from politics and turn our attention to weightier matters, such as our annual prediction of who will be elected to the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame.  It is a Ruthian task, indeed.

This has been a horrendous year for everyone, of course, with COVID-19 disrupting the globe.  Major league baseball felt the impact as well, of course, and yet managed to stage a shortened season that offered some entertainment value, and the best team did win.

{Note on Jan 25, 2021: This article was originally published on December 17, 2020.}

But while baseball struggled through the pandemic, there was much devastating news off the field within the baseball family, with the loss of no fewer than six members of the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame.  First we lost Al Kaline, Tom Seaver and Lou Brock and then, in a brutal nine-day stretch in October, Bob Gibson, Whitey Ford and Joe Morgan.  These players were giants of my youth and staples of World Series rosters for three decades.  Collectively, they made 61 All-Star teams, won three MVP’s and six Cy Young Awards.  At least one of them appeared in 13 of the 19 World Series from 1958 to 1976, often shining in starring roles.  They won three World Series MVPs, two by Gibson, one by Ford.  Kaline could have easily won the honors in 1968 (which went, deservedly, to Mickey Lolich) and Brock could have as well in each of the two years Gibson won it for the Cards, in 1964 and 1967.  Seaver and Morgan had their postseason moments as well. 

This sense of loss took a poignant turn with the recent passing of Dick Allen.  Allen was a Hall of Famer in my book, but was passed over by the writers at least in part because he did not suffer fools gladly.  He was booed mercilessly in his home stadium in Philadelphia, and was forced to wear a helmet in the field to provide modest protection from thrown objects.  He was labeled a rebel, which, in the 1960s, was not terribly welcome in our society, especially from a Black man.  But Allen won an MVP in 1972 with the White Sox, and was a ferocious hitter, perhaps the best in his era.  From 1964 to 1974, his OPS+ (on base percentage plus slugging percentage for the player, divided by the league average) of 165 was higher than anyone else with 5,000 plate appearances, including Hall of Famers such as Hank Aaron, Willie McCovey, Frank Robinson, Willie Stargell and others.  And he was a solid clubhouse presence, most notably in his second stint with the Phillies, when he mentored a young team with a core of Mike Schmitt, Greg Luzinski and Garry Maddox that would go on (sans Allen) to win it all in 1980. 

It is “poignant” because the “Golden Era” Committee for players overlooked by the writers had to cancel their voting meeting this year due to COVID.  The last time Dick Allen was on the ballot, in the “Golden Era” meeting in 2014, he fell exactly one vote short.  There is widespread belief that Allen would have been voted in this year, and he likely will be in the future.  Too late for him, though.  The Phillies got tired of waiting and retired his number just three months ago – incredibly, the franchise had a policy of retiring only the numbers of Hall of Fame members, and thus Allen was doubly screwed by the writers’ folly.  Fortunately, the Phillies saw the light before Allen passed away and he was apparently extremely grateful for the belated, and much deserved recognition.

So we are wearing a metaphorical black armband in recognition of these times and those losses, as we offer our annual predictions for the Hall of Fame.  The new members – if any – will be announced on January 26, 2021.

We note that votes for the MLB HOF are again being publicly tabulated as sportswriters announce them by Ryan Thibonaux’s Tracker.  We have not looked at those tabulations.  Not that they are very helpful in predicting…the writers who reveal their votes publicly, especially in the early going, tend to differ from their more private counterparts.  Quite a few times, including last year with Curt Schilling, it seemed as if a candidate was headed to the Hall according to the early voting reported by the Tracker, only to see them slip under the 75% threshold in the final accounting.    

{Note on Jan 25, 2021:  Even though the Tracker now has over 170 published ballots, we believe our BTRTN predictions, made and published last December, will be more accurate than the current count.  "Private" ballots, as said, are often quite different than the published ones.}

Each year we analyzee HOF ballot to answer two questions:  1) which nominees will be elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the vote of the Baseball Writers Association of America (we also predict what percentage each nominee will receive), and 2) who amongst the nominees deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, based on our own analysis?  The two lists are never identical. 

For the first question, we use various statistical models to come up with an initial estimate of the percentage of the vote they will receive, and we use judgment to massage and finalize that estimate.  For the second question, we have developed a methodology to compare nominees to their predecessors to determine their “Hall-worthiness.”

HOW DID WE DO LAST YEAR?

We rather immodestly bill ourselves as “The Best MLB Hall of Fame Predictors” (we may well be the only ones) and last year did nothing to hurt our claim to that title!

We predicted accurately that first-timer Derek Jeter would be elected, really going out on a limb there!  Actually, we did predict that Jeter, unlike his teammate Mariano Rivera the year before, would not be elected unanimously, and we were correct on that prediction. 

We did a fine job with Larry Walker, correctly predicting he would make the HOF by a very slim margin; we forecast he would get 76% of the vote and he actually received 77%.  But we missed on Curt Schilling; we thought there would be enough votes that moved to him in his 8th year on the ballot to push him over the top, but that was not the case.  Instead of the 76% we predicted, Schilling received only 70%.  Perhaps being a first-class jerk is holding him back.

We thought the Twin-PED (performance enhancing drugs) users Roger Clemons and Barry Bonds would make progress but fall short, and that was true….but they made less progress than we predicted, garnering only 61% of the vote (each) versus our predicted of 68% (each).  And we did well with Omar Vizquel, off a single point with our prediction of 54%. 

We had more trouble with the next batch of players after this “top six.”  That was because we thought the writers would collectively make only 6.0 HOF selections per ballot, but they actually made more than that -- 6.6 in fact.  These “extra” votes tended to help a bunch of players who were well above the 5% cutoff but far from the 75% threshold, as you can see below.   We were particularly surprised – shocked? – by the big showing made by Gary Sheffield, for no discernible reason.  He beat our forecast by +19 percentage points, and made the biggest jump from his 2019 vote total, from 14% to 31%.  Most of the others also beat our forecast (and last year’s totals) but by lesser amounts.

Overall, we were off by an average of 3.8 percentage points per nominee, not quite as good as in 2019, when we had our best showing at 3.3, but still among our top performances. 

Here are last year’s results for each nominee, including our assessment of whether they deserve to be in the HOF, which you will read about below.  The “PED” guys are, in our view, not worthy, and thus they are branded with those letters.

 

2020	Year on Ballot	Should be in HOF?	BTRTN Prediction %	Actual %	Act vs Proj  pp diff.
Derek Jeter	1	Yes	99.0	99.7	1
Larry Walker	10	Yes	76	77	1
Curt Schilling	8	Yes	76	70	6
Roger Clemens	8	PED	68	61	7
Barry Bonds	8	PED	68	61	7
Omar Vizquel	3	No	54	53	1
Scott Rolen	3	Yes	25	35	10
Billy Wagner	5	Yes	24	32	8
Gary Sheffield	6	PED	12	31	19
Todd Helton	2	Yes	19	29	10
Manny Ramirez	4	PED	22	28	6
Jeff Kent	7	Yes	25	28	3
Andruw Jones	3	Yes	7	19	12
Sammy Sosa	8	PED	6	14	8
Andy Pettitte	2	PED	6	11	5
Bobby Abreu	1	No	7	6	2
Paul Konerko	1	No	0	3	3
Jason Giambi	1	PED	2	2	1
Alfonso Soriano	1	No	0	2	2
Cliff Lee	1	No	5	1	5
Eric Chavez	1	No	1	1	1
Rafael Furcal	1	No	1	0	1
Josh Beckett	1	No	1	0	1
Brian Roberts	1	No	0	0	0
Carlos Pena	1	No	0	0	0
Chone Figgins	1	No	0	0	0
Raul Ibanez	1	No	0	0	0
Brad Penny	1	No	0	0	0
Adam Dunn	1	No	0	0	0
J.J. Putz	1	No	0	0	0
Jose Valverde	1	No	0	0	0
Heath Bell	1	No	0	0	0
Total variance >>>			605	660	116
			# players on ballot		31
			avg. off per player		3.8

 

WHO WILL BE ELECTED?  THIS YEAR’S PREDICTIONS

On to this year!  And here is our most important prediction:  BTRTN predicts that the writers will elect just one new member to the MLB Hall of Fame:  Curt Schilling. 

It is worth noting that the HOF has slimmed down the ballot considerably this year, from 34 players last year (which is more the norm) to only 25 this year.  This is a welcome change, because in past years the ballot has been unnecessarily stuffed with players who simply have not come close to being Hall-worthy.  Last year, for instance, there were seven players who received no votes, and several who, just to pick one metric, had a WAR (Wins Above Replacement player, a measure of the value of a player versus a substitute) under 20.  

The HOF voting has finally gotten through the glut of worthy players who were constrained by the limitations of only 10 votes per writer.  This constraint became a big problem in the steroids era, when the ballot was clogged with tainted PED users who lingered on the ballot, stuck in a purgatory of their own making.  Over the last three years the dam has been broken, with 10 new stars elected, helped by a new rule reducing the years a candidate can be on the ballot from 15 to 10 years., which forced some “long timers” off the ballot five years sooner than before.

This year’s ballot still has a number of PED-tainted players – six, in fact.  They, and the other holdovers on the list, have an opening this year to move up in the balloting.  That is because there are no obvious vote-grabbing first-ballot candidates, such as Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, Chipper Jones and Jim Thome (just to name the ones over the past three years).  In fact, it is entirely possible that this year’s rookie class – the weakest in years – may never yield a Hall of Famer.   The best of the newcomers are Torii Hunter, Mark Buehrle and Tim Hudson, who all have “borderline candidate” (at best) written all over them – fine players, but certainly not first-ballot material. 

So will last year’s top returning vote-getters, Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds, all in their 9^th year, finally make it to the HOF?  Might Omar Vizquel make the jump?  Part of the dilemma is trying to figure out how many “votes per ballot” a writer might make.  In the “glut” years, writers averaged 7.5 to 8.5 votes per ballot (you have to wonder why it was not closer to 10).  But last year that figure dropped to 6.6, and, without Jeter, it could drop even lower this year.  We don’t see a good reason why it should increase given the lack of first-ballot juice; we actually see it dropping further, to 6.2. 

(By the way, it would be wonderful to say that the PED era is over, or nearly over with the fate of Clemens and Bonds to be decided one way or the other either this year or next -- but, alas, next year we will see the arrival of Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz to the ballot.  Sigh.) 

So, what’s the answer?  Here’s the summary chart of this year’s ballot, including our predictions.  We see good upward movement from a number of holdover candidates from last year, especially the non-PEDS like Schilling, who will get over the 75% threshold, and Omar Vizquel and Scott Rolen.  But Clemens and Bonds will make some progress, too – setting up a tension-filled year next year, which will be their last on the ballot by the 10-year rule.

 

2021	Year on Ballot	Should be in HOF?	Last Year %	BTRTN Prediction %
Curt Schilling	9	Yes	70	78
Omar Vizquel	4	No	53	67
Roger Clemens	9	PED - No	61	66
Barry Bonds	9	PED - No	61	66
Scott Rolen	4	Yes	35	49
Billy Wagner	6	Yes	32	42
Gary Sheffield	7	PED - No	31	41
Todd Helton	3	No	29	39
Jeff Kent	8	Yes	28	38
Manny Ramirez	5	PED - No	28	32
Andruw Jones	3	Yes	19	25
Sammy Sosa	9	PED - No	14	19
Andy Pettitte	3	PED - No	11	12
Tim Hudson	1	No	n/a	11
Bobby Abreu	2	No	6	9
Torii Hunter	1	No	n/a	9
Aramis Ramirez	1	No	n/a	7
Mark Buehrle	1	No	n/a	4
Dan Haren	1	No	n/a	2
Michael Cuddyer	1	No	n/a	0
LaTroy Hawkins	1	No	n/a	0
Shane Victorino	1	No	n/a	0
Barry Zito	1	No	n/a	0
A.J. Burnett	1	No	n/a	0
Nick Swisher	1	No	n/a	0

 

WHO SHOULD BE IN THE HALL OF FAME?

The second question we ask annually is this:  putting aside what the writers think, who on the ballot do we think is “Hall-worthy”? 

We agree that Schilling should be in the HOF (although we are hardly a fan); and we think the ballot also includes four other players that should be in the HOF, but will fall short in this year’s balloting:  Scott Rolen, Billy Wagner, Jeff Kent and Andruw Jones. 

To arrive at our conclusions, we use the following analytic methodology.  We compare each player to Hall of Famers at his position across a number of key statistics, both traditional (hits, homers, RBI’s and batting average) and non-traditional (OPS+ and WAR).  We show the average statistics for all the Hall of Famers at his position, and then divide the Hall of Famers into halves, separating (using WAR) the top half of the HOF from the bottom half.  And we also include these stats for the “next ten,” the ten players at the position who have the highest WARs but are not in the HOF.  These latter two groups define the so-called “borderline.” 

Our general feeling is that a candidate, to be worthy of the HOF, must be at least as good as the “average” HOF’er at his position across these stats.  Borderline won’t do.  As you will note, the “lower half” HOF’ers are really indistinguishable from the ones who just missed, the “next 10.”  This is because there are more than a few players in the HOF who simply don’t deserve to be so enshrined.

We also give some consideration to how many All-Star teams a player was named to, and how many times a player was in the Top 10 in MVP voting (or Cy Young voting for pitchers).  And postseason play can certainly be a factor as well.  We try to keep it completely objective.  Both of these last two factors come into play when assessing a certain bloody- or ketchup-soaked-socked World Series star, as you will see.

Note that because we don’t think that PED-tainted players should be in the HOF, we have omitted them from the following analysis (most have Hall-worthy credentials, although Jason Giambi, Andy Pettitte and Sammy Sosa are subject to debate).

BY POSITION ANALYSIS

Note that the players we consider “Hall-worthy” are highlighted in yellow, and the others are not.

Catcher

There is not a single catcher on the ballot this year.

First Base 

Todd Helton is one of those exceptionally difficult cases – the hardest one on the ballot, in our view.  You have to take into account the “Coors Field” high altitude effect that inflates Rockie player stats.  WAR is a park adjusted figure, and Helton's 52 falls between the average HOF and the borderlines.  His OPS+ is down with the borderlines, and if you break this down further, Helton’s home/road OPS’s are 1.048/.855.  That .855 is a problem – a fine number but not HOF-esque.  We think Helton is a tough pass – a very tough pass. 

FIRST BASE	Avg.	Hits	HR	RBI	OPS+	WAR
Top Half	0.311	2566	363	1588	152	83
Avg HOF	0.306	2395	316	1450	143	67
Bottom Half	0.301	2210	265	1300	133	50
Next 10 non-HOF	0.290	2162	261	1172	130	52
Todd Helton	0.316	2519	369	1406	133	61

Second Base 

Jeff Kent is the all-time leading home run hitter among second baseman, and is third in RBIs behind Rogers Hornsby and Napoleon Lajoie.  He also won an MVP once, was a Top 10 in the MVP balloting three other times, and a five-time All Star.  He hit three homers and had seven RBI’s in his only World Series.  He was simply one of the greatest power-hitting second basemen ever and the best in modern times.  His WAR may be a bit low, but it is better than the borderline groups, and his OPS+ is above the average HOF second basemen.  If he had been a little nicer to sportswriters over the years, he might be doing better in the voting to date.  But he is unquestionably a Hall of Famer.  (By the way, for you Helton fans smarting over our snub, Kent’s home/away OPS splits are .853/.857 – in other words, he has a higher OPS than Helton on the road, while occupying a middle infielder position.)

 

SECOND BASE	Avg.	Hits	HR	RBI	OPS+	WAR
Top Half	0.314	2780	181	1259	132	90
Avg HOF	0.298	2442	160	1089	120	69
Bottom Half	0.283	2103	139	920	107	48
Next 10 non-HOF	0.285	2051	133	889	116	52
Jeff Kent	0.290	2461	377	1518	123	55

Shortstop 

Omar Vizquel has done well in the balloting in his first three years, establishing a track record (37% in his first year, 43% in his second, 53% in his third) that will likely leading to enshrinement.  Our feeling is that while Omar deserves strong consideration, we don’t think he is quite HOF-worthy.  His OPS+ of only 82 is well below both the bottom half of HOF shortstops and the Next 10. The main thing going for him is his 2,877 hits, a testament to his longevity – he did play 24 years.  He was a fine player defensively, with 11 Gold Gloves, but no Ozzie Smith or Mark Belanger, with 129 runs saved in his career versus their 239 and 241, respectively.  (Craig Counsell had 127.)  He made only three All-Star teams and was never a Top Ten finisher in the MVP balloting.  We pass on Omar.

 

SHORTSTOP	Avg.	Hits	HR	RBI	OPS+	WAR
Top Half	0.290	2597	173	1241	116	76
Avg HOF	0.286	2336	120	1053	109	63
Bottom Half	0.282	1997	51	809	100	46
Next 10	0.276	1995	92	903	105	49
Omar Vizquel	0.272	2877	80	951	82	46

Third Base 

Scott Rolen should have avoided retiring the same year as Chipper Jones.  In fact, he should have avoided overlapping his entire career with Chipper, and in the same league, no less.  And, maybe he should have avoided playing third base, a position the HOF does not favor (there are fewer third basemen in the HOF than any other position).  Rolen was a terrific, if underrated player.  Chipper may dominate Rolen in every category, but Rolen in turn is solidly above the average third base HOF’er in all the power categories, right in line with the average HOF third basemen in OPS+ and WAR, and he was a great fielder, too.  Not to mention seven All Star selections.  We believe Rolen should be in the HOF.

Aramis Ramirez is a very interesting candidate.  He too played in Chipper Jones’ shadow, with a largely losing team (the Cubs), unlike Jones (Atlanta) and Rolen (the Cards).  In terms of traditional statistics, he is a slightly more impressive candidate than Rolen, with more homers and RBI’s, as well as more hits and a tad higher batting average.  But he falls off in the more advanced stats; Rolen has a significantly higher OPS and far outpaces Ramirez in WAR.  (Essentially, Rolen was better on getting on base -- he walked more -- and was a far better fielder than Ramirez.)  Ramirez’s OPS+ and WAR are lower than both the “bottom half” HOF third basemen as well as the next ten third-sackers who are not in the HOF.   Ramirez also only made three All-Star squads, though he did outpace Rolen with three Top Ten MVP ballots versus one.  Neither of them lit it up in postseason play.  So, for us, Rolen is in, Ramirez misses the cut.

 

THIRD BASE	Avg.	Hits	HR	RBI	OPS+	WAR
Top Half	0.290	2715	372	1403	134	89
Avg HOF	0.296	2383	248	1203	125	68
Bottom Half	0.303	2052	124	1037	117	47
Next 10 non-HOF	0.270	2086	256	1103	117	56
Scott Rolen	0.281	2077	316	1287	122	70
Aramis Ramirez	0.283	2303	386	1417	115	32

Outfield/DH

Andruw Jones is an interesting case, with those 434 homers and a 63 WAR that also reflects his outstanding defensive skills.  He had 253 "runs saved," an astounding number exceeded only by Brooks Robinson.  That is truly impressive.  His relatively low 111 OPS+ is the big knock, but we think the power, defense and WAR – plus five All-Star selections and two Top Ten MVP vote totals -- add up to a Hall of Famer.

Bobby Abreu is an another exceptionally difficult case.  His power stats are above average for a HOF outfielder, but his OPS+ and WAR are borderline.  And when you throw in the fact that he only made two All Star games in his career (though he did put on quite a display in the Home Run Derby in one of those years) and never once was a Top 10 MVP vote getter, it’s hard to make a case that he was one of the very best players of his generation.  No HOF for Bobby.

Torii Hunter is a very similar candidate to Andruw Jones, in that both were excellent fielders and solid hitters.  Jones had more power, while Hunter hit better for average.  But while Hunter was a fine fielder and won 9 Gold Gloves, Jones was, as noted, among the greatest defensive players of all time.  Hunter trails Jones in WAR as well, largely due to the defensive gap.  Jones was also the superior postseason player; both have extensive postseason resumes.  We can find room for Jones in the HOF because of his defensive prowess, but Hunter should end up on the outside looking in.

Shane Victorino, Nick Swisher and Michael Cuddyer each made an All-Star game or two, and each deserve the honor of making an appearance on the ballot.  But it only takes a cursory glance at the comparison chart to conclude they each fall well short of serious HOF consideration.

 

OUTFIELD/DH	Avg.	Hits	HR	RBI	OPS+	WAR
Top Half	0.317	2898	314	1496	145	91
Avg HOF	0.313	2560	242	1286	136	70
Bottom Half	0.309	2175	161	1047	127	46
Next 10 non-HOF	0.282	2096	241	1052	126	59
Andruw Jones	0.254	1933	434	1289	111	63
Bobby Abreu	0.291	2470	288	1363	128	60
Torii Hunter	0.277	2452	353	1391	110	51
Shane Victorino	0.275	1274	108	489	102	32
Nick Swisher	0.249	1338	245	803	113	21
Michael Cuddyer	0.277	1536	197	794	113	18

Starting Pitchers 

Curt Schilling’s ERA+ is a stirling 127 and his WAR is a hefty 80, both up there with the top half of HOF starting pitchers.  And you also have to consider his postseason performances, bloody sock (or not) and all, which were phenomenal:  11-2 with a 2.23 ERA.  Hate him or hate him, Schilling is a Hall of Famer.

Mark Buehrle and Tim Hudson are, along with Schilling, members of a dying breed, the 200+ career win pitcher.  Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke are the only two active pitchers who have achieved that milestone, and they may be joined by a few others (Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer), but then it will likely be a stat of the past.  In a few years we will surely drop wins as a stat to consider for the HOF.  You can make a case for both Buehrle and Hudson as HOF-worthy; both have stats that match up well with the “bottom half” of HOF pitchers, each made 4-5 All Star teams and Hudson has 4 Top Ten Cy Young finishes (though neither ever won one).  We are generally tough on borderline candidates, so we say “no” now – but their candidacies may age well, and we may reconsider them if they achieve the 5% threshold to stay on the ballot.

Dan Haren, Barry Zito and A.J. Burnett may also look like giants a decade from now, but it is far easier to nix them as of now.  Each had an ERA+ under 110 and a WAR no higher than 35, and those markers are well below HOF standards.

 

STARTING PITCHERS	W	W/L Pct	ERA	ERA+	WAR	IP
Top Half	313	0.593	2.98	124	89	4700
AVG HOF	267	0.599	2.99	123	69	3989
Bottom Half	222	0.604	3.00	122	50	3277
Next 10 non-HOF	237	0.568	3.07	116	64	3758
Curt Schilling	216	0.597	3.46	127	80	3261
Mark Buehrle	214	0.572	3.81	117	59	3283
Tim Hudson	222	0.625	3.49	120	58	3127
Dan Haren	153	0.539	3.75	109	35	2420
Barry Zito	165	0.536	4.04	105	32	2577
A.J. Burnett	164	0.511	3.99	104	29	2731

Relief Pitchers 

There is not an extensive history of relief pitchers, so we have changed the comparison categories accordingly.  Here we compare the seven “pure” relievers in the HOF (Rivera, Gossage, Fingers, Hoffman, Smith, Sutter and Wilhelm, but excluding Dennis Eckersley who started many games before becoming a reliever) with the 15 relievers who reached 300 or more saves but were turned aside on the first ballot by HOF voters (none met the 5% threshold).   

Billy Wagner’s statistics are amazing, and some keen voters – too few -- have noticed this because he has made it to a fourth year on the ballot.  He has well over 400 saves and a 1.00 WHIP that is – incredibly – equal to Rivera’s (and better than Trevor Hoffman’s 1.06).  His stats compare favorably to the big seven.  Wagner is on our ballot – he is simply one of the greatest relievers ever.

LaTroy Hawkins’s statistics are not amazing.  In fact, he is the only player on this year’s ballot who simply does not deserve even that honor. 

 

RELIEF PITCHERS	Saves	WHIP	ERA+	WAR	IP	IP/G
Avg HOF (ex-Eck)	416	1.14	143	35	1496	1.5
Non-HOF 300+ Saves	331	1.27	129	18	1004	1.2
Billy Wagner	422	1.00	187	28	903	1.1
LaTroy Hawkins	127	1.41	4.31	18	1467	1.4

That’s it!  We’ll be back after Tuesday, January 26, 2021, when the selections will be announced and see how we did!