BTRTN: Local Heroes Stand Up to the Fraud Farce, While Biden Projects Calm

Tom with the BTRTN November, 2020 Month in Review, a month that simply has no precedent in American history.

We have faced epic times in our country’s history before, certainly: wars, depressions, threats of nuclear destruction and terrorist attacks on our homeland.  We have even lived through unfathomably close elections, candidates attempting to steal the presidency and, yes, a global pandemic.  But never all three at once.  The memory of this particular month, November 2020, will not recede readily, if ever, no matter how soothing we may find Joe Biden’s persona and how reassured we may be by his words and deeds, in particular in building a thoughtful, experienced and high integrity governing team.  Nor should we ever forget the harrowing travails of this month, when our democracy itself was assaulted.

The trauma here was how close we came to being upended.  The current president has been testing our norms all along, of course.  And he has discovered a deeply disturbing truth – that much of what we rely on to preserve our fragile democracy is dependent on customs, traditions and norms, not codified rules or specific laws.  And when laws do exist, they can be subverted or ignored when those elected to enforce them weigh that duty unfavorably against their reelection prospects.  There is no edge of the envelope to push, just as there is no edge of the universe to touch.  The only real power resides in the president's 90% approval rating among Republican voters, and the palpable fear among GOP politicians of becoming the target of a Twitter rant.  We have been waiting for four long years for principled and civic-minded Republican leaders -- other than John McCain, John Kasich, Jeff Flake, Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski and Ben Sasse -- to stand up and shout: “This is wrong!”  That moment has yet to arrive.

But by the end of this consequential month, in the aftermath of our elections, our institutions did hold up.  Not without some teetering along the way, and not without more fissures being exposed.  But our voting process emerged unscathed, with no whiff of fraud.  The courts vigorously swatted away specious claims of  electoral foul play.  And the votes are being certified, with the Electoral College tally expected to proceed as designed.  Our institutions held up because a small coterie of low profile state and local electoral officials and judges, many of them Republicans, or appointed by Republicans, did indeed say – enough.  They were the ones who stared down the president, putting their careers – and even their lives – on the line, and did what Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, Lindsay Graham and so many other GOP leaders refused to do.  They did the right thing.

This would have been an incredible election to pull off even without White House histrionics, given the pandemic.   Our electoral system was turned upside down, with more votes cast before Election Day than on it, and over 40% of the total by mail, sharp increases from the recent past.  A record turnout, while perhaps inspired mostly by the loving or loathing of the incumbent, was nevertheless a remarkable display of civic responsibility.  There were indeed “delays” in the vote counting, but only because several GOP state legislatures refused to allow the vote counters a head start on their jobs in light of the onslaught of early voting.  While there were a few protests here and there, by and large it was a peaceful exercise.  All in all, a remarkable performance.

The challenges began with the lawsuits – the White House's Plan A for delegitimizing the election -- putting our courts in the spotlight.  And the courts spoke with incredible clarity, and unanimity.  Over 40 cases have been filed in various swing states charging various forms of fraud, and only one resulted with a verdict favoring the president (an inconsequential one in Pennsylvania).  The rest of the president’s petitions were either denied, dismissed, withdrawn or upheld on appeal.  Most of the judges used blistering language that made clear the lack of any credible evidence to back the hysterical claims.  And they left no doubt about their collective disgust with the horrifically inept arguments that were brought to them by a collection of hack attorneys, the only ones willing to make such specious claims on behalf of the president.

And the certification process – the White House's Plan B -- while still underway, has lived up to the challenge as well.  There were various dramas that played out in Michigan in particular, and intense pressure brought to bear against local officials in Georgia and Pennsylvania.  But in the end, the certifications went forward, and with them, Joe Biden finally received long-overdue official clearance for the presidential transition by the General Services Administration.

There were many heroes in this process, and most will always be anonymous, the counters, the observers, the checkers, the overseers, the election officials charged with protecting the processes, the lawyers who defended them.  But a few shined so brightly in their one moment on the national stage, their moment to embody institutional safeguards, that we should recognize them. 

·        There was Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger, a Republican, who in the face of calls for his resignation by the state’s two GOP Senators (both up for reelection), and direct pleas from Lindsay Graham to find Biden votes that could be tossed out, steadfastly defended the fraud-free election process he ran that resulted in a narrow Biden win. 

·        And Aaron Van Langevelde, the Republican Vice Chair of Michigan’s Board of State Canvassers, who sided with two Democrats to certify the election (while another Republican abstained).  His understated delivery of the verdict was the epitome of integrity:  “The board’s duty today is very clear.  We have a duty to certify this election based on these returns. That is very clear. We are limited to these returns. I’m not going to argue that we’re not.” 

·        And finally, Circuit Judge Stephanos Bibos, appointed by the president in 2017, who did not disguise his outrage in dismissing one of the many Pennsylvania lawsuits:  "Free, fair elections are the lifeblood of our democracy. Charges of unfairness are serious. But calling an election unfair does not make it so. Charges require specific allegations and then proof. We have neither here." 

And what reward have these paragons of civic duty received for their efforts?  Death threats and other forms of harassment from the crazed followers of the president.  We can only hope that none of these are acted upon, and all of those who stood tall in this crisis can return to normal lives as soon as possible, with the knowledge that the verdict of history has already been rendered in their favor.

Joe Biden was elected by virtue of over 80 million popular votes (and counting), a 4-point victory margin, and 306 electoral votes.  While the counting process made it appear to be a "comeback" from a deep abyss, the votes that put him over the top were actually the first ones cast, the mail-in votes dominated by Democrats who ignored the president and were rightly motivated to avoid crowded polling stations.  

Well before the GSA acted to enable his transition, Biden began to reacquaint America with the very norms that had been so bruised in the prior four years.  He largely stayed out of the fraud fray, instead allowing the institutions to do their work while he began to put his new Administration in place.  Through a series of calming speeches, briefings and appointments, he made it clear that science is back, experience is back, the rule of law is back – indeed, his mantra became, “America is back.”  Though facing the largest challenges of any incoming president since FDR, with the pandemic raging anew, the fading economy and our devastated image abroad, Biden projected strength, compassion, experience and calm.  For a man famous for gaffes, he hit every note correctly and seemed completely at ease and in command.

Biden will be the first President-Elect since Bill Clinton in 1992 to come into office without both houses of Congress in his party’s control (unless, of course, the Democrats manage to sweep two Senate runoff elections in Georgia in January).  His new partner, Nancy Pelosi, will only have a razor thin majority to work with in the House.  He will also govern under the cloud of a Supreme Court likely hostile to his agenda. 

Nevertheless, the early signals of his “first hundred days” plan point to energetic action to set a new course on health care, climate change, immigration, COVID management and more.  We all will find out if even a vestige of Joe Biden’s Washington, DC remains.  Biden embodies the across-the-aisle, find-a-compromise, pass-the-bill-fix-the-bill way of doing business.  Expect him to have frequent conversations with Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Joe Manchin, the swing votes who will define the limits of his legislative ambitions, perhaps even if he gets a majority (Manchin, the most conservative Democrat, will be the 50th vote and thus all powerful in that event).

One thing Biden will have going for him is positive news on the COVID vaccine front, which could be rolled out as early as December, with the potential for a return to normalcy in mid-to-late 2021.  Perhaps his greatest challenge will be in convincing enough Americans to actually get the vaccine, no small task and a necessary one.

The less said about the incumbent, the better.  He will remain on the scene until the day he dies.  That 90% approval rating among Republicans ensures that.  He has already indicated an interest in pursuing the 2024 GOP nomination, a musing that puts the brakes on the many would be successors who have already endured four years of sycophancy to maintain their 2024 prospects.  One can only imagine what Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley must be thinking at this point.  His erratic behavior in these final days has surprised no one, as he telegraphed his plan to delegitimize the voting process and upend the transition, which have made a mockery of two of the most treasured aspects of our grand experiment.  The firings of those who opposed him, the abrupt withdrawal of troops from dangerous theaters, the assassination of high visibility enemies, the pardons of his cronies, and whatever else ensues, are moves designed to maintain the spotlight and undercut the Biden Administration, no more, no less. 

But despite his massive following and guaranteed place on the national scene, he will be far, far less powerful out of the Oval Office.  He is already losing scads of airtime to Biden, and that trend will continue, ever more sharply.  We will see if he can maintain his death grip on his followers and the GOP when he is out of the White House.  It is not a given.

TRUMP APPROVAL RATING

Trump’s approval rating remained in the same typical range for the month of November, at 42%.  This marks the 35rd consecutive month that Trump’s approval rating fell in the 40-45% range.  We have been saying from the outset that Trump needed to improve this mark, at least to the upper 40% range, to have a chance at reelection.  He never did – never really tried to reach out to potential supporters in the so-called middle – and paid the price. 

TRUMP APPROVAL RATING
	2017		2018		2019		2020
	1H	2H	1H	2H	1H	2H	J	F	M	A	M	J	J	A	S	O	N
App	44	39	42	43	42	43	43	44	45	45	44	41	41	43	43	43	42
Dis	50	56	54	53	54	54	54	54	53	53	53	57	57	56	55	56	55
Net	-6	-17	-12	-10	-12	-11	-10	-11	-8	-8	-9	-15	-15	-13	-12	-13	-12

 

TRUMP’S HANDLING OF THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS

Approval of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus continued in a range just a tick mark below his overall approval rating at 42%.     

TRUMP HANDLING OF CORONAVIRUS
	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Approve	48	46	43	41	39	40	42	40	42
Disapprove	47	51	54	56	58	57	56	57	55
Net	1	-5	-11	-15	-19	-17	-14	-16	-14

 

TRUMPOMETER

The Trumpometer remained in historically disastrous territory in November at -110.  The -110 Trumpometer reading means that, on average, our five economic measures are an astounding 110% lower than they were at the time of Trump’s Inauguration, per the chart below (and with more explanation of methodology below).  

This level is slightly improved versus the -116 index from the previous month.  There was no new GDP information.  Both consumer confidence and the price of gas dropped marginally.  The unemployment rate dropped significantly to 6.9%.  But the big move was by the stock market, which rose by 13% in the month fueled by the good news on the vaccine and, if anything, enthusiastic over the Biden win.

The “Trumpometer” was designed to provide an objective answer to the legendary economically-driven question at the heart of the 1980 Reagan campaign:  “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”  The Trumpometer now stands at -110, which of course means things are far worse than that, even worse than the -53 recorded at the end of George W. Bush’s time in office, in the midst of the Great Recession. 

Presidents >>>	Clinton	Bush	Obama	Trump
Measures	End Clinton  1/20/2001	End Bush 1/20/2009	End Obama 1/20/2017 (Base = 0)	Trump 10/31/2020	Trump 11/30/2020	% Chg. Vs. 1/20/2017 Inaug.  (+ = Better)
Trumpometer >>>	25	-53	0	-116	-110	-110%
Unemployment Rate	4.2	7.8	4.7	7.9	6.9	-47%
Consumer Confidence	129	38	114	101	96	-15%
Price of Gas	1.27	1.84	2.44	2.23	2.19	-10%
Dow Jones	10,588	8,281	19,639	26,502	29,910	50%
GDP	4.5	-6.2	2.1	-9.0	-9.0	-529%

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Notes on methodology: 

BTRTN calculates our monthly approval ratings using an average of the four pollsters who conduct daily or weekly approval rating polls: Gallup Rasmussen, Reuters/Ipsos and You Gov/Economist. This provides consistent and accurate trending information and does not muddy the waters by including infrequent pollsters.  The outcome tends to mirror the RCP average but, we believe, our method gives more precise trending. 

For the generic ballot (which is not polled in this post-election time period), we take an average of the only two pollsters who conduct weekly generic ballot polls, Reuters/Ipsos and You Gov/Economist, again for trending consistency. 

The Trumpometer aggregates a set of economic indicators and compares the resulting index to that same set of aggregated indicators at the time of the Trump Inaugural on January 20, 2017, on an average percentage change basis... The basic idea is to demonstrate whether the country is better off economically now versus when Trump took office.  The indicators are the unemployment rate, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, the Consumer Confidence Index, the price of gasoline.