BTRTN 2020 Election Snapshot: No Loss of Momentum As Yet For Biden and Dems Down the Stretch

Tom with the latest BTRTN “snapshot” on the state of the races. 

This is our last “snapshot” before we make our BTRTN Final Predictions on Monday at 5 PM ET.  (We also reserve the right to look at late-breaking polls on Tuesday, Election Day, and make any revisions we see fit by Tuesday at 5 PM ET).

Not much has changed, and that is news in and of itself.  Hillary Clinton was showing signs of fading at this point in 2016, but Joe Biden has not.  A few Senate races are tightening up but the odds still favor a Democratic takeover.  The Dems will almost surely pick up seats in the House, leaving the GOP with the sole consolation of likely flipping one governor seat.

So, here are the latest BTRTN odds, based on a brand new run of our models.

BTRTN ELECTION DASHBOARD AS OF 10/20
BTRTN Election Odds of Democrats' Winning/Controlling
Presidency	Senate	House
87%	72%	99%
335 Biden/203 Trump	51 DEM / 49 GOP (D+4)	248 DEM/190 GOP (D +15)

These odds have been inching upwards for the Democrats all year (with the exception of the House odds, which have remained at 99% the entire time), reflecting ever-more favorable polls and conditions for the Democrats.  But we’ve shaved a few points off the Senate odds in this last iteration.

CHANGES IN BTRTN ODDS
Date >>>	5/9	5/28	7/1	8/24	9/8	9/15	9/23	10/7	10/18	10/28
Presidency	n/a	73%	82%	81%	79%	81%	82%	83%	87%	87%
Senate Control	59%	59%	59%	62%	65%	65%	67%	71%	74%	72%
House Control	99%	99%	99%	99%	99%	99%	99%	99%	99%	99%

And again, we offer our two standard warnings:

WARNING:  No matter how good the numbers look at any given time, the Democrats will not win any election unless they work hard to earn it – registering voters, calling, texting, donating – up to and including Election Day.

WARNING:  Remember, this is a snapshot, not a prediction.  Even with only four days to go, and over 77 million votes already cast, anything can happen between now and when the final votes are counted.

 

THE RACES

The Presidency:  Donald Trump continues on his superspreader tour, in the face of record levels of COVID-19 new cases and growing death tolls.  Joe Biden continues his brilliantly understated campaign, letting Trump scald himself while spreading empathy, experience and warmth in his messaging – and talking about COVID every chance he can get.  And Barack Obama has joined the party, stumping in Pennsylvania and Florida to get out the vote, and he will join Biden in Michigan on Saturday in their first join appearance.

Trump’s odds of winning remain at 1 in 8.  He has to win all the toss-up states – and Biden nominally leads in most of them.  And then Trump needs to pick-off at least one state in which he has trailed the entire campaign by a solid margin.  For that is focused on Biden’s native state, Pennsylvania, to be that state. Biden’s lead in Michigan has swelled to near double digits, and Trump appears to have given up on Wisconsin.  We have moved those latter two races from Lean Biden to Likely Biden.  But we now consider Arizona, where the race is tightening, to be a Biden Toss Up (it had been a Biden Lean).

Trump needs a catalyst to change the race dynamics.  A slew of rallies – a dubious strategy in and of itself, given the absurd COVID optics – will not do it.  The cratering stock market (down 7% in a week) is certainly not helping him.  He needs a true October Surprise, and he needs it fast, because half of American voters have already spoken.  Trump may hope the just-released GDP report might be that catalyst, with its “record growth.”  But Americans are more likely to see through the headline and get to the heart of the matter, which the numbers also show – that the economy remains much worse than pre-pandemic levels.  And that with the surge, whatever resurgence is occurring, will be slowed. 

The Senate:  The Democrats maintain solid leads in target flip races in Arizona, Colorado and Maine.  But they need to flip one more seat to overcome the presumed loss of Alabama and get to the required 50 seats for control, assuming a Biden win.  Their leads in Iowa and North Carolina have narrowed, but between those two and all the other toss-up races, they still appear likely to take control of the Senate.  The dynamics down the stretch – all that Dem donor money, all those calling and texting volunteers, all those cases of COVID-19 – seem to favor last-minute “persuadables” tilting blue down the stretch.

Both Georgia races are of note.  The regular race, between incumbent Republican David Perdue and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff, could result in a run-off if neither candidate achieves 50% of the vote.  And the Georgia special election is a “jungle primary” on November 3, which will also result in a runoff if no one clears the 50% hurdle (far more likely than the regular election).  The Democrat Raphael Warnock leads the primary, but that is because current Senator Kelly Loeffler and challenger Doug Collins are splitting the GOP vote.  But the most recent poll has Warnock tied with the combined Loeffler/Collins vote.  We have moved this to a toss-up. 

The House.  The “generic ballot” continues to show the Dems with a +9 point lead over the GOP, which should translate to a pick-up of roughly 20 seats, enabling the Democrats to further tighten their grip in the House with a huge majority of well over 60 seats. 

The Governors.  There are 11 governor races and only two are competitive.  We expect the GOP to flip Montana and otherwise all incumbent parties will retain control of their state houses. 

Here are all the relevant numbers: 

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: NATIONAL POLLS
Head-to-Head	As of 10/7	As of 10/28
Biden	51	51
Trump	43	43
Spread (D - R)	8	9 (rounding)
PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Electoral College	As of 10/7	As of 10/28
BIDEN - TOTAL	335	335
Biden - Solid	212	216
Biden - Likely	14	36
Biden- Lean	63	27
Biden - Tossup	46	56
Trump - Tossup	78	78
Trump - Lean	0	0
Trump - Likely	0	0
Trump - Solid	125	125
TRUMP - TOTAL	203	203
PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: SWING STATE POLLS
State by State (EV)	Latest Polls	BTRTN Rating
CAL, COL, CT, DC, DEL, HA, ILL, ME, ME 1st, MASS, NH, NM, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA, WAS (216)	N/A	D Solid
Michigan (16)	Biden + 9	D Likely (Flip)
Wisconsin (10)	Biden + 8	D Likely (Flip)
Minnesota (10)	Biden + 7	D Likely
Nebraska 2nd District (1)	Biden + 7	D Lean (Flip)
Nevada (6)	Biden + 6	D Lean
Pennsylvania (20)	Biden + 4	D Lean (Flip)
Maine 2nd District (1)	Biden + 4	D Toss Up (Flip)
Arizona (11)	Biden + 3	D Toss Up (Flip)
Florida (29)	Biden + 1	D Toss Up (Flip)
North Carolina (15)	Biden + 1	D Toss Up (Flip)
Georgia (16)	Biden + 2	R Toss Up
Iowa (6)	Biden + 1	R Toss Up
Ohio (18)	Trump + 1	R Toss Up
Texas (38)	Trump + 2	R Toss Up
ALA, ALASK, ARK, ID, IND, KS, KY, LA, MISSP, MO, MON, NEB, NEB 1ST, NEB 3RD, ND, OKL, SC, SD, TENN, UT, WV, WYO (125)	N/A	R Solid
PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: STATE BTRTN RATING CHANGES
State (Electoral Votes)	As of 10/7	As of 10/28
Michigan (16)	D Lean (Flip)	D Likely (Flip)
Arizona (11)	D Lean (Flip)	D Toss Up (Flip)
Wisconsin (10)	D Lean (Flip)	D Likely (Flip)
SENATE SNAPSHOT
Senate	As of 10/14	As of 10/28
DEM TOTAL	51 (+4)	51 (+4)
Dem Holdover	35	35
Dem Solid	10	9
Dem Likely	2	3
Dem Lean	4	2
Dem Toss-up	0	2
GOP Toss-up	4	5
GOP Lean	2	1
GOP Likely	3	3
GOP Solid	10	10
GOP Holdover	30	30
GOP TOTAL	49 (-4)	49 (-4)
SENATE SNAPSHOT:  STATE BY STATE
Senate By State	Latest Polls	BTRTN Rating
DE, IL, MASS, NH, NM, NJ, OR, RI, VA		D Solid
Colorado	Hickenlooper + 8	D Likely (Flip)
Arizona	Kelly + 6	D Likely (Flip)
Minnesota	Smith + 6	D Likely
Michigan	Peters + 6	D Lean
Maine	Gideon + 4	D Lean (Flip)
N. Carolina	Cunningham + 2	D Toss Up (Flip)
Iowa	Greenfield + 2	D Toss Up (Flip)
Georgia (Reg)	Perdue + 1	R Toss Up
S. Carolina	Graham + 3	R Toss Up
Montana	Daines + 3	R Toss Up
Kansas	Marshall + 4	R Toss Up
Georgia (Spe)	n/a	R Toss Up
Alaska	Sullivan + 5	R Lean
Mississippi	Hyde-Smith + 5	R Likely
Kentucky	McConnell + 9	R Likely
Alabama	Tuberville + 12	R Likely (Flip)
ARK, ID, LA, NE, OK, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY		R Solid
SENATE SNAPSHOT: STATE BTRTN RATING CHANGES
State	As of 10/7	As of 10/14
Iowa	D Toss Up (Flip)	D Lean (Flip)
Minnesota	D Solid	D Likely
N. Carolina	D Lean (Flip)	D Toss Up (Flip)
Iowa	D Lean (Flip)	D Toss Up (Flip)
Georgia (Spe)	R Lean	R Toss Up
HOUSE SNAPSHOT
House	As of 10/20	As of 10/28
Generic Ballot	Dem + 8	Dem + 9
Democrats	251 (+ 18)	252 (+ 19)
Republicans	187 (- 18)	186 (- 19)
GOVERNOR SNAPSHOT
Governors	As of 10/14	As of 10/28
DEM TOTAL	23	23
Dem Holdover	20	20
Dem Solid	3	3
Dem Likely	0	0
Dem Lean	0	0
Dem Toss-up	0	0
GOP Toss-up	0	0
GOP Lean	1	1
GOP Likely	1	1
GOP Solid	6	6
GOP Holdover	19	19
GOP TOTAL	27	27
GOVERNOR SNAPSHOT:  STATE BY STATE
Senate By State	Latest Polls	BTRTN Rating
DEL, NC, WASH		D Solid
Missouri	Parson + 5	R Lean
Montana	Gianforte + 8	R Likely (Flip)
NH, IN, ND, UT, VT, WV		R Solid