Tom with the latest BTRTN “snapshot” on the state of the races.
This is our last “snapshot” before we make our BTRTN Final Predictions on Monday at 5 PM ET. (We also reserve the right to look at late-breaking polls on Tuesday, Election Day, and make any revisions we see fit by Tuesday at 5 PM ET).
Not much has changed, and that is news in and of
itself. Hillary Clinton was showing
signs of fading at this point in 2016, but Joe Biden has not. A few Senate races are tightening up but the
odds still favor a Democratic takeover.
The Dems will almost surely pick up seats in the House, leaving the GOP with the sole consolation of likely flipping one governor seat.
So, here are the latest BTRTN odds, based on a brand new
run of our models.
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BTRTN ELECTION DASHBOARD AS OF 10/20 |
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|
BTRTN Election Odds of Democrats' Winning/Controlling |
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|
Presidency |
Senate |
House |
|
87% |
72% |
99% |
|
335 Biden/203 Trump |
51 DEM / 49 GOP (D+4) |
248 DEM/190 GOP (D +15) |
These odds have been inching upwards for the Democrats all year (with the exception of the House odds, which have remained at 99% the entire time), reflecting ever-more favorable polls and conditions for the Democrats. But we’ve shaved a few points off the Senate odds in this last iteration.
|
CHANGES IN BTRTN ODDS |
||||||||||
|
Date >>> |
5/9 |
5/28 |
7/1 |
8/24 |
9/8 |
9/15 |
9/23 |
10/7 |
10/18 |
10/28 |
|
Presidency |
n/a |
73% |
82% |
81% |
79% |
81% |
82% |
83% |
87% |
87% |
|
Senate Control |
59% |
59% |
59% |
62% |
65% |
65% |
67% |
71% |
74% |
72% |
|
House Control |
99% |
99% |
99% |
99% |
99% |
99% |
99% |
99% |
99% |
99% |
And again, we offer our two standard warnings:
WARNING: No matter how good the numbers look
at any given time, the Democrats will not win any election unless they work
hard to earn it – registering voters, calling, texting, donating – up to and
including Election Day.
WARNING: Remember, this is a snapshot, not a prediction. Even with only
four days to go, and over 77 million votes already cast, anything can happen between
now and when the final votes are counted.
THE RACES
The
Presidency: Donald Trump continues on his superspreader
tour, in the face of record levels of COVID-19 new cases and growing death
tolls. Joe Biden continues his
brilliantly understated campaign, letting Trump scald himself while spreading
empathy, experience and warmth in his messaging – and talking about COVID every
chance he can get. And Barack Obama has
joined the party, stumping in Pennsylvania and Florida to get out the vote, and
he will join Biden in Michigan on Saturday in their first join appearance.
Trump’s odds of winning remain at 1 in 8. He has to win all the toss-up states – and Biden nominally leads in most of them. And then Trump needs to pick-off at least one state in which he has trailed the entire campaign by a solid margin. For that is focused on Biden’s native state, Pennsylvania, to be that state. Biden’s lead in Michigan has swelled to near double digits, and Trump appears to have given up on Wisconsin. We have moved those latter two races from Lean Biden to Likely Biden. But we now consider Arizona, where the race is tightening, to be a Biden Toss Up (it had been a Biden Lean).
Trump needs a catalyst to change the race dynamics. A slew of rallies – a dubious strategy in and of itself, given the absurd COVID optics – will not do it. The cratering stock market (down 7% in a week) is certainly not helping him. He needs a true October Surprise, and he needs it fast, because half of American voters have already spoken. Trump may hope the just-released GDP report might be that catalyst, with its “record growth.” But Americans are more likely to see through the headline and get to the heart of the matter, which the numbers also show – that the economy remains much worse than pre-pandemic levels. And that with the surge, whatever resurgence is occurring, will be slowed.
The
Senate: The
Democrats maintain solid leads in target flip races in Arizona,
Colorado and Maine. But they need to flip one more seat to
overcome the presumed loss of Alabama
and get to the required 50 seats for control, assuming a Biden win. Their leads in Iowa and
North Carolina have narrowed, but between
those two and all the other toss-up races, they still appear likely to take
control of the Senate. The dynamics down
the stretch – all that Dem donor money, all those calling and texting
volunteers, all those cases of COVID-19 – seem to favor last-minute “persuadables”
tilting blue down the stretch.
Both Georgia races are of note. The regular race, between incumbent Republican David Perdue and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff, could result in a run-off if neither candidate achieves 50% of the vote. And the Georgia special election is a “jungle primary” on November 3, which will also result in a runoff if no one clears the 50% hurdle (far more likely than the regular election). The Democrat Raphael Warnock leads the primary, but that is because current Senator Kelly Loeffler and challenger Doug Collins are splitting the GOP vote. But the most recent poll has Warnock tied with the combined Loeffler/Collins vote. We have moved this to a toss-up.
The House. The “generic ballot” continues to show the Dems with a +9 point lead over the GOP, which should translate to a pick-up of roughly 20 seats, enabling the Democrats to further tighten their grip in the House with a huge majority of well over 60 seats.
The Governors. There are 11 governor races and only two are competitive. We expect the GOP to flip Montana and otherwise all incumbent parties will retain control of their state houses.
Here are all the relevant numbers:
|
PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: NATIONAL POLLS |
||
|
Head-to-Head |
As of 10/7 |
As of 10/28 |
|
Biden |
51 |
51 |
|
Trump |
43 |
43 |
|
Spread (D - R) |
8 |
9 (rounding) |
|
PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: ELECTORAL COLLEGE |
||
|
Electoral College |
As of 10/7 |
As of 10/28 |
|
BIDEN - TOTAL |
335 |
335 |
|
Biden - Solid |
212 |
216 |
|
Biden - Likely |
14 |
36 |
|
Biden- Lean |
63 |
27 |
|
Biden - Tossup |
46 |
56 |
|
Trump - Tossup |
78 |
78 |
|
Trump - Lean |
0 |
0 |
|
Trump - Likely |
0 |
0 |
|
Trump - Solid |
125 |
125 |
|
TRUMP - TOTAL |
203 |
203 |
|
PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: SWING STATE POLLS |
||
|
State by State (EV) |
Latest Polls |
BTRTN Rating |
|
CAL, COL, CT, DC, DEL, HA, ILL, ME, ME 1st, MASS, NH, NM, NJ,
NY, OR, RI, VT, VA, WAS (216) |
N/A |
D Solid |
|
Michigan (16) |
Biden + 9 |
D Likely (Flip) |
|
Wisconsin (10) |
Biden + 8 |
D Likely (Flip) |
|
Minnesota (10) |
Biden + 7 |
D Likely |
|
Nebraska 2nd District (1) |
Biden + 7 |
D Lean (Flip) |
|
Nevada (6) |
Biden + 6 |
D Lean |
|
Pennsylvania (20) |
Biden + 4 |
D Lean (Flip) |
|
Maine 2nd District (1) |
Biden + 4 |
D Toss Up (Flip) |
|
Arizona (11) |
Biden + 3 |
D Toss Up (Flip) |
|
Florida (29) |
Biden + 1 |
D Toss Up (Flip) |
|
North Carolina (15) |
Biden + 1 |
D Toss Up (Flip) |
|
Georgia (16) |
Biden + 2 |
R Toss Up |
|
Iowa (6) |
Biden + 1 |
R Toss Up |
|
Ohio (18) |
Trump + 1 |
R Toss Up |
|
Texas (38) |
Trump + 2 |
R Toss Up |
|
ALA, ALASK, ARK, ID, IND, KS, KY, LA, MISSP, MO, MON, NEB, NEB
1ST, NEB 3RD, ND, OKL, SC, SD, TENN, UT, WV, WYO (125) |
N/A |
R Solid |
|
PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: STATE BTRTN RATING CHANGES |
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|
State (Electoral Votes) |
As of 10/7 |
As of 10/28 |
|
Michigan (16) |
D Lean (Flip) |
D Likely (Flip) |
|
Arizona (11) |
D Lean (Flip) |
D Toss Up (Flip) |
|
Wisconsin (10) |
D Lean (Flip) |
D Likely (Flip) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
SENATE SNAPSHOT |
||
|
Senate |
As of 10/14 |
As of 10/28 |
|
DEM TOTAL |
51 (+4) |
51 (+4) |
|
Dem Holdover |
35 |
35 |
|
Dem Solid |
10 |
9 |
|
Dem Likely |
2 |
3 |
|
Dem Lean |
4 |
2 |
|
Dem Toss-up |
0 |
2 |
|
GOP Toss-up |
4 |
5 |
|
GOP Lean |
2 |
1 |
|
GOP Likely |
3 |
3 |
|
GOP Solid |
10 |
10 |
|
GOP Holdover |
30 |
30 |
|
GOP TOTAL |
49 (-4) |
49 (-4) |
|
SENATE SNAPSHOT: STATE
BY STATE |
||
|
Senate By State |
Latest Polls |
BTRTN
Rating |
|
DE, IL, MASS, NH, NM, NJ, OR, RI, VA |
|
D Solid |
|
Colorado |
Hickenlooper + 8 |
D Likely (Flip) |
|
Arizona |
Kelly + 6 |
D Likely (Flip) |
|
Minnesota |
Smith + 6 |
D Likely |
|
Michigan |
Peters + 6 |
D Lean |
|
Maine |
Gideon + 4 |
D Lean (Flip) |
|
N. Carolina |
Cunningham + 2 |
D Toss Up (Flip) |
|
Iowa |
Greenfield + 2 |
D Toss Up (Flip) |
|
Georgia (Reg) |
Perdue + 1 |
R Toss Up |
|
S. Carolina |
Graham + 3 |
R Toss Up |
|
Montana |
Daines + 3 |
R Toss Up |
|
Kansas |
Marshall + 4 |
R Toss Up |
|
Georgia (Spe) |
n/a |
R Toss Up |
|
Alaska |
Sullivan + 5 |
R Lean |
|
Mississippi |
Hyde-Smith + 5 |
R Likely |
|
Kentucky |
McConnell + 9 |
R Likely |
|
Alabama |
Tuberville + 12 |
R Likely (Flip) |
|
ARK, ID, LA, NE, OK, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY |
|
R Solid |
|
SENATE SNAPSHOT: STATE BTRTN RATING CHANGES |
||
|
State |
As of 10/7 |
As of 10/14 |
|
Iowa |
D Toss Up (Flip) |
D Lean (Flip) |
|
Minnesota |
D Solid |
D Likely |
|
N. Carolina |
D Lean (Flip) |
D Toss Up (Flip) |
|
Iowa |
D Lean (Flip) |
D Toss Up (Flip) |
|
Georgia (Spe) |
R Lean |
R Toss Up |
|
|
|
|
|
HOUSE SNAPSHOT |
||
|
House |
As of 10/20 |
As of 10/28 |
|
Generic Ballot |
Dem + 8 |
Dem + 9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
251 (+ 18) |
252 (+ 19) |
|
Republicans |
187 (- 18) |
186 (- 19) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GOVERNOR SNAPSHOT |
||
|
Governors |
As of 10/14 |
As of 10/28 |
|
DEM TOTAL |
23 |
23 |
|
Dem Holdover |
20 |
20 |
|
Dem Solid |
3 |
3 |
|
Dem Likely |
0 |
0 |
|
Dem Lean |
0 |
0 |
|
Dem Toss-up |
0 |
0 |
|
GOP Toss-up |
0 |
0 |
|
GOP Lean |
1 |
1 |
|
GOP Likely |
1 |
1 |
|
GOP Solid |
6 |
6 |
|
GOP Holdover |
19 |
19 |
|
GOP TOTAL |
27 |
27 |
|
GOVERNOR SNAPSHOT: STATE
BY STATE |
||
|
Senate By State |
Latest Polls |
BTRTN
Rating |
|
DEL, NC, WASH |
|
D Solid |
|
Missouri |
Parson + 5 |
R Lean |
|
Montana |
Gianforte + 8 |
R Likely (Flip) |
|
NH, IN, ND, UT, VT, WV |
|
R Solid |
