BTRTN 2020 Snapshot: Dems Likely to Rock the House in November

Tom looks at the House races as of today – a “snapshot”, not a prediction.

OUR TRACK RECORD

This is our first BTRTN in-depth look at the House of Representative races in 2020.  The headline:  at this juncture we see almost no chance that the Democrats will lose control of the House.  Rather, if current race dynamics hold, they will likely pick up a significant number of seats and extend their majority.

The BTRTN track record in predicting House elections has been exceptionally strong.  Here are the predictions and outcomes in the last five elections: 

BTRTN PREDICTED VS. ACTUAL
Year	BTRTN Prediction	Actual Outcome
2010	R + 58	R + 63
2012	D + 4	D + 8
2014	R + 10	R + 13
2016	D + 5	D + 6
2018	D + 38	D + 41

THE MODEL

Our predictions are driven by our proprietary BTRTN House Prediction Regression Model (actually, four separate models), which use relevant predictive data compiled since the 1970 midterms (credit where credit is due:  the models have been created by my daughter, Allie).  

The model specifically predicts how many seats the Democrats will pick up or lose in the overall election.  Thus it is not a “race by race” analysis, which are covered by the various rating services (Cook, Politico and several others). 

The most important variable in the model is the so-called “generic ballot,” in which survey respondents are asked which party they would vote for in the coming House election, without naming any specific candidates (thus, “generic”).  This has proven time and again to be a crucial and highly predictive data point.

The other important variable in the model is the number of seats currently held by the Democratic party.  The more seats the Democrats hold – and they have a solid majority now, by virtue of the “Blue Wave” of 2018 -- the harder it will be to win more, simply because the seats they will have to now flip are likely to be more entrenched for the GOP (after all, they managed to stay red in 2018).   So even if the generic ballot in 2020 is similar to that of 2018 – and, as of now, it is – it will not likely result in a Blue Wave of similar proportion.

STATE OF PLAY

All 435 House seats are up for reelection, of course.  The Democrats currently hold 232 seats, while the GOP holds 201.  There are four vacancies, due to the death of John Lewis (D -GA 5); the moves of Mark Meadows (R - NC 11) and John Ratcliffe (R - TX 4) into positions in the Trump Administration; the resignation of Duncan Hunter (R - CA 50).  And then there is Justin Amash, who was elected to Michigan’s 3rd district as a Republican, but then left the GOP, first to become an independent, and then a Libertarian.

For the purposes of predicting Democratic gains or losses, it is convenient to think in terms of where those five seats “belong” and add them to the sitting representative totals – so there are 233 Democratic seats (232 sitting reps plus Lewis’s vacant seat) and 205 Republican seats (201 sitting GOP reps plus the Meadows, Ratcliffe, Hunter and Amash seats).  So we will be predicting how many seats the Dems will gain or lose from 233.

The generic ballot has been strongly in the Democrats’ favor since Trump’s election in 2016; the Dems have held a +4 to +9 advantage during that entire time.  At the time of the 2018 midterms the Dems led by +8 points, which translated directly to the Blue Wave, when the Dems flipped 41 seats from red to blue.

Right now, the Democrats again lead the generic ballot by +8 points, averaging all 18 polls that have been conducted since July 1.

Another factor in the Democrats favor is the number of retiring representatives.  It is harder to flip a seat held by an incumbent than a new candidate who is replacing a retiring one.  Fully 37 Republicans are not running for reelection, many of them tired of doing Trump’s bidding and not anxious for a bruising campaign.  Only 7 Democrats are not running for reelection.  (We should note that the aforementioned Libertarian Justin Amash is not running for reelection either.)

TODAY’S SNAPSHOT 

This BTRTN snapshot indicates that if Election Day were today, the Democrats would pick up somewhere in the range of +17 seats and extend control of the House to a mammoth margin of seats, 250 to 188.

BTRTN 2020 HOUSE SNAPSHOT
Party	Current	2020	Change	% Chance Dems Control House
Democrats	233	250	+17	99%
Republicans	205	188	-17

SPECIFIC RACES

At this juncture we see 86 races “in play.”  That is, we believe there are 192 Democratic seats that the Democrats can surely count on winning (“solid” in the parlance) and 157 GOP that fall in the same category.  The 86 seats are held evenly between the Democrats and Republicans, 43 apiece.  But we see the Dems holding each of their seats and flipping 17 of the GOP seats.   We have arrayed all the races as follows:

BTRTN HOUSE RATINGS SUMMARY
	Current	As of 8/10/2020	Flip
DEM TOTAL	233	250	17
Dem Solid		192	2
Dem Likely		16
Dem Lean		24	3
Dem Toss-up		18	12
GOP Toss-up		7
GOP Lean		9
GOP Likely		12
GOP Solid		157
GOP TOTAL	202	185	-17

And here is a breakdown of all 86 of the “in play” races as we see them in this snapshot, ranked in order of likelihood of winning the seat.

BTRTN RATINGS FOR 86 SEATS “IN PLAY”
State/District	Incumbent	Retiring	2018 Result	BTRTN Rating 8/10/20	Flip
California 10	Josh Harder (D)		52.3% D	D Likely
California 45	Katie Porter (D)		52.1% D	D Likely
New York 18	Sean Patrick Maloney (D)		55.5% D	D Likely
Florida 13	Charlie Crist (D)		57.6% D	D Likely
Illinois 6	Sean Casten (D)		53.6% D	D Likely
New Jersey 11	Mikie Sherrill (D)		56.8% D	D Likely
Washington 8	Kim Schrier (D)		52.4% D	D Likely
Florida 27	Donna Shalala (D)		51.8% D	D Likely
Michigan 11	Haley Stevens (D)		51.8% D	D Likely
Nevada 4	Steven Horsford (D)		51.9% D	D Likely
Pennsylvania 17	Conor Lamb (D)		56.3% D	D Likely
Minnesota 2	Angie Craig (D)		52.7% D	D Likely
Nevada 3	Susie Lee (D)		51.9% D	D Likely
New York 19	Antonio Delgado (D)		51.4% D	D Likely
Arizona 1	Tom O'Halleran (D)		53.8% D	D Likely
Pennsylvania 7	Susan Wild (D)		53.5% D	D Likely
California 39	Gil Cisneros (D)		51.6% D	D Lean
Kansas 3	Sharice Davids (D)		53.6% D	D Lean
Michigan 8	Elissa Slotkin (D)		50.6% D	D Lean
New Hampshire 1	Chris Pappas (D)		53.6% D	D Lean
Pennsylvania 8	Matt Cartwright (D)		54.6% D	D Lean
Illinois 14	Lauren Underwood (D)		52.5% D	D Lean
Texas 32	Colin Allred (D)		52.3% D	D Lean
Texas 23	Will Hurd (R)	Retiring	49.2% R	D Lean	Flip
California 48	Harley Rouda (D)		53.6% D	D Lean
Iowa 2	Dave Loebsack (D)	Retiring	54.8% D	D Lean
New Jersey 7	Tom Malinowski (D)		51.7% D	D Lean
California 21	TJ Cox (D)		50.4% D	D Lean
Florida 26	D. Mucarsel-Powell (D)		50.9% D	D Lean
Texas 7	Lizzie Fletcher (D)		52.5% D	D Lean
Virginia 2	Elaine Luria (D)		51.1% D	D Lean
Georgia 6	Lucy McBath (D)		50.5% D	D Lean
Iowa 3	Cindy Axne (D)		49.3% D	D Lean
Iowa 1	Abby Finkenauer (D)		51.0% D	D Lean
Virginia 7	Abigail Spanberger (D)		50.3% D	D Lean
New Jersey 3	Andy Kim (D)		50.0% D	D Lean
California 25	Mike Garcia (R)		54.9% R	D Lean	Flip
New Mexico 2	Xochitl Torres Small (D)		50.9% D	D Lean
Utah 4	Ben McAdams (D)		50.1% D	D Lean
Texas 22	Pete Olson (R)	Retiring	51.4% R	D Lean	Flip
Georgia 7	Rob Woodall (R)	Retiring	50.1% R	D Toss-up	Flip
Maine 2	Jared Golden (D)		50.5% D	D Toss-up
Minnesota 7	Collin Peterson (D)		52.1% D	D Toss-up
New York 22	Anthony Brindisi (D)		50.8% D	D Toss-up
South Carolina 1	Joe Cunningham (D)		50.6% D	D Toss-up
New York 11	Max Rose (D)		53.0% D	D Toss-up
Texas 24	Kenny Marchant (R)	Retiring	50.6% R	D Toss-up	Flip
Oklahoma 5	Kendra Horn (D)		50.7% D	D Toss-up
Texas 21	Chip Roy (R)		50.2% R	D Toss-up	Flip
Illinois 13	Rodney Davis (R)		50.4% R	D Toss-up	Flip
Indiana 5	Susan Brooks (R)	Retiring	56.8% R	D Toss-up	Flip
Missouri 2	Ann Wagner (R)		51.2% R	D Toss-up	Flip
Nebraska 2	Don Bacon (R)		51.0% R	D Toss-up	Flip
Pennsylvania 10	Scott Perry (R)		51.3% R	D Toss-up	Flip
Arizona 6	David Schweikert (R)		55.2% R	D Toss-up	Flip
New Jersey 2	Jeff Van Drew (R)		52.9% D	D Toss-up	Flip
New York 2	Peter T. King (R)	Retiring	53.1% R	D Toss-up	Flip
Ohio 1	Steve Chabot (R)		51.3% R	D Toss-up	Flip
Michigan 3	Justin Amash (L)	Retiring	54.4% R	R Toss-up
Minnesota 1	Jim Hagedorn (R)		50.1% R	R Toss-up
Pennsylvania 1	Brian Fitzpatrick (R)		51.3% R	R Toss-up
Texas 10	Michael McCaul (R)		51.1% R	R Toss-up
New York 24	John Katko (R)		52.6% R	R Toss-up
Florida 15	Ross Spano (R)		53.0% R	R Toss-up
North Carolina 8	Richard Hudson (R)		55.3% R	R Toss-up
Michigan 6	Fred Upton (R)		50.2% R	R Lean
Washington 3	Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)		52.7% R	R Lean
Montana at-large	Greg Gianforte (R)		50.9% R	R Lean
New York 1	Lee Zeldin (R)		51.5% R	R Lean
Virginia 5	Denver Riggleman (R)		53.2% R	R Lean
Alaska-at-Large	Don Young (R)		53.1% R	R Lean
Arkansas 2	French Hill (R)		52.1% R	R Lean
Colorado 3	Scott Tipton (R)		51.5% R	R Lean
Texas 2	Dan Crenshaw (R)		52.8% R	R Lean
Florida 16	Vern Buchanan (R)		54.6% R	R Likely
Kentucky 6	Andy Barr (R)		51.0% R	R Likely
Ohio 10	Mike Turner (R)		55.9% R	R Likely
Texas 25	Roger Williams (R)		53.5% R	R Likely
Texas 3	Van Taylor (R)		54.3% R	R Likely
Texas 31	John Carter (R)		50.6% R	R Likely
Kansas 2	Steve Watkins (R)		47.6% R	R Likely
Ohio 12	Troy Balderson (R)		51.4% R	R Likely
Florida 18	Brian Mast (R)		54.3% R	R Likely
New York 21	Elise Stefanik (R)		56.1% R	R Likely
North Carolina 9	Dan Bishop (R)		50.7% R	R Likely
Texas 6	Ron Wright (R)		53.1% R	R Likely