BTRTN: Pandemic's Box: Trump Drifts Towards Irrelevance

Tom with the BTRTN April 2020 Month in Review.

As of March 31, there were roughly 212,000 total cases of coronavirus in the United States, and the death toll had just edged over 5,000.  Now, one month later, we have passed the one million mark in cases, and the death toll has ballooned harrowingly to over 60,000 – more than was lost in Vietnam in our two-decade struggle there -- and still climbing fast.  The ultimate number of deaths is likely to surpass 100,000, even had there been no premature “re-openings,” which, of course, will almost certainly push the number even higher.  And a “second wave” is also on the horizon, come the fall when the virus reemerges.

In retrospect, we ended March with two moments that, at least in the main, unified the country.  The first was passage of the $2.1 trillion economic relief bill on March 27, on overwhelmingly bipartisan terms, the third and by far the largest of three coronavirus-inspired relief bills passed in March.  And the second was on March 29, when Trump finally came to grips with the folly of his “open-by-Easter, pews-will-be-full, rarin’-to-go beautiful-timeline” myth and extended the social distancing guidelines until April 30, per the advice of Dr. Anthony Fauci.

But by the end of April, these hard-won measures of national purpose had been shattered in so many different ways.  Protesters, first in Michigan, then in other red states, and finally in many states across the country, chafed at “shelter at home” orders that they felt restricted individual “freedom” and blunted economic renewals.  The protests over time morphed from non-socially distance gatherings to more disturbing ones features weapons, culminating by month's end with the nauseating sight of militia roaming the Michigan state capitol in Lansing, fully armed. 

Governors, heeding political winds instead of health advisors, began to split along traditional red/blue lines, and by month’s end a slew of GOP states were opening for business (albeit in phases).  These governors were even ahead of the Trump administration, as they began to open without achieving federal guidelines announced by the Coronavirus Task Force, which called for 14 consecutive days of declining new cases, which no state had achieved.

And the era of good feelings enjoyed by Congress finally ran out of steam, with little progress on a badly needed Phase 4 bill; even the fate of the House procedures were uncertain, as Republicans began to return to Washington to meet in person (as a show of support for the re-openings) while Democrats pushed for remote legislation in light of obvious health considerations.

And where was Donald Trump in all of this?  Seemingly everywhere and nowhere at the same time.  Quickly recognizing the ratings bonanza of the daily Coronavirus Task Force briefings, Trump commandeered them with a daily assault on anyone’s sense of leadership under duress.  A typical Trump “presser” includes most of the following elements:  an opening statement that consisted of a set of bullet points handed to him summarizing the Coronavirus Task Force meeting (which he rarely attends); off-script riffs on enemies to whom he assigns blames (China, the World health Organization, Democrats, Obama, the press and certain Democratic governors); alternative claims of absolute federal power and deference to state houses over the control of reopening decisions; bullying of the press; demands of praise for shutting down China flights; endless hyping of his administration’s track record in dealing with the crisis (one even included a Powerpoint presentation on this topic); praise of CEOs and big business; varying degrees of disagreement with the assessments of the experts; and fabrications about the state of testing.   

What his comments lack are any statements of empathy for the victims, any sense of a coherent national plan for dealing with the containment of the virus, any direction for reopening geographical areas, or how to address the various materials and testing gaps that have emerged (except for endless pounding about ventilators) – and any sense of overall responsibility for what has happened to date.

Trump then turns the podium over to Mike Pence, who dutifully ascribes any positive developments to the wisdom and action of the president.  Drs. Fauci and Birx make appearances, more Birx of late; she appears to be more willing and even eager to carefully modulate Trump’s statements and reconcile them with her own views.  Fauci, who at times cannot hide his disdain for Trump, and is less likely to obscure the truth, has been shunted aside at these confabs.  Various other aides grovel to Trump as they report on aspects of the saga he deems worth reporting.

The press conferences – which are little more than Trump rallies transferred to a new venue -- have hurt him for these defects, lies and omissions.  But one press conference stood out even in this morass – the astonishing one on April 23 in which Trump went rogue on the topics of disinfectants and intense light.  Both have been shown to be effective in killing the virus on surfaces, and, thus inspired, Trump mused on their potential as a cure if they could somehow be injected directly into the human body.  Yes, the President of the United Stated mused aloud, staring at his scientists, about the possibility of humans ingesting bleach or Lysol, which will kill you.

This, of course, followed weeks of Trump’s beyond dubious claims about the effectiveness of an anti-malarial drug, hydroxychloroquine, which he had been touting as a cure, over the advice of virtually any scientific or medical expert.  While testing of that drug is still early and inconclusive, one study concluded that those who were given hydroxychloroquine in trials suffered a higher mortality rate than those who were given a placebo.

The look on Dr. Birx’s face was priceless as Trump directly these thoughts at her.  The CEO of Reckitt Benckiser, the maker of Lysol, immediately issued a statement sternly warning consumers of his product to not, uh, consume his product.  Ultimately, Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland revealed that his state’s hotline has received over a hundred calls asking about the advisability of swallowing disinfectants to battle the virus.  In the aftermath, Trump’s advisors ramped up their calls for him to abandon, or at least shorten the briefings, advice Trump rather haltingly followed in the ensuing week.

Apart from the press conferences, Trump of course has been active on Twitter, and in no way more astonishing than his apparent support of the protesters as they ramped up.  His April 17 tweets to “LIBERATE MICHIGAN!”, “LIBERATE MINNESOTA!” and “LIBERATE VIRGINIA” were hard to believe in and of themselves, but particularly since those states were all following his own guidelines.

The net effect of all of this – the utter lack of leadership Trump has brought to the crisis, the disdain of science, the irresponsible statements, the refusal to use the power of the federal government to commandeer procurement of needed supplies or allocate scarce materials, and the deferral of all decision making to governors – has strangely rendered Trump more or less irrelevant in the management of this crisis, stuck in a pandemic's box of his own making.  It is a stunning turn of events that has no ready analogy, except, perhaps, the inaction of James Buchanan before the Civil War or Herbert Hoover in the early years of the Depression.  Even Neville Chamberlain and Lyndon Johnson doggedly pursued their ill-fated strategies; they neither shirked their responsibilities nor blamed others for their plights.  Both stepped down voluntarily when their follies became crystal clear.

Clearly this has become the moment for the governors.  Andrew Cuomo of New York has become a national superstar, the anti-Trump of crisis management.  GOP governors Hogan (Maryland) and DeWine (of Ohio) have achieved bi-partisan praise for their non-partisan leadership.  Governor Whitmer of Michigan has become a Vice-Presidential contender, while governors Kemp of Georgia and DeSantis of Florida have become laughingstocks.

But we are thus operating with the chaos of 50 different plans, ranging from the meticulously cautious) New York’s plan) to the absurdly casual (Georgia’s).  There is nothing about the various approaches that is coordinated, apart from some task forces created by Northeast and Northwest governors.  Most states do not have any detailed plans for the pillars of reopening:  adequate testing capability and contact tracing procedures and resources required to contain the second wave.  Perhaps the absurdity is best reflected by the following data point:  the states that have reopened actually were experiencing higher daily new case growth rates, in the week before they reopened, than the states that remain restricted (4% versus 3%).

Nevertheless, one can be sure Trump will claim full credit if the crisis ends (no matter when or at what cost), and will put the blame on the governors if it lingers unabated or their actions prompt a second wave.  He will continue to blame China for the virus’s onset, WHO for its initial laxity, Obama for those so-called empty stockpiles, and the governors for everything else.

One thing is unambiguously clear:  the US has failed to bring down the number of new cases as well as other large countries.  A direct comparison of the US with the combined totals of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK – who have a total population just about equal to that if the US – bears this out.  While Europe was hit with the virus first, the US has since surpassed the Big Five in total cases.  And of late, the US has labored to drive total daily new cases down, stuck in the 25,000 to 30,000 range, while Europe, using more aggressive and disciplined national shutdown strategies, has driven daily cases from roughly that same range 25,000 – 30,000 range to about 12,000.

	USA			BIG FIVE EUROPE
Week Ending	Avg. Daily	Cum	Cum % Change	Avg. Daily	Cum	Cum % Change
17-Mar	47	353	8%	1,034	8,366	46%
14-Mar	353	2,825	35%	4,203	37,786	24%
21-Mar	2,984	23,710	36%	11,876	120,915	18%
28-Mar	13,914	121,105	26%	22,450	278,066	13%
4-Apr	26,682	307,876	14%	27,678	471,814	8%
11-Apr	31,080	525,436	8%	23,729	637,919	4%
18-Apr	28,467	724,705	5%	19,592	775,064	3%
25-Apr	29,856	933,698	4%	15,775	885,488	2%
2-May	27,589	1,126,822	3%	12,147	970,518	1%

Meanwhile, the economy is in a shambles.  The GDP declined by 4.8% in the first quarter alone, and that was only the beginning of the crisis.  More than 30 million jobless claims have been filed in the last six weeks; the unemployment report that will be filed this Friday will be devastating.  The economic packages to date will doubtless mitigate even worse effects, but each have been sloppy in their own ways. 

The stimulus checks have been slow to get to needy Americans.  The Payroll Protection Plan somehow found its way to the Los Angeles Lakers, a franchise that is worth more than $4 billion and generated more than $100 million in operating profit last year, and many other large, publicly-traded companies.  And the intended target, small businesses, have been either unable to get them (due to systems snafus that make the Obamacare start-up look like the model of efficiency) or cannot use them (since it would require them to re-hire laid-off employees to make products for which there is no demand).

There is no longer any rational debate about whether Trump has handled the crisis well.  Even a healthy subset of the GOP – in polling -- thinks he was too slow off the mark is reacting to the threat of the virus and is not a credible source of information.  The blue half of the country is contemptuous of his efforts with plenty of facts to support the critique.

The only question is whether this epic fail will cost him the election in November.  And that, indeed, remains an open question. 

MONTHLY MADNESS

What more can be said?

“I see the disinfectant that knocks it out in a minute, one minute.  And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside, or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets inside the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that.” 

TRUMP’S HANDLING OF THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS

The presidential playbook for dealing with an epic crisis is clear:  soar above partisanship and unify the entire country against the scourge; balance the cold hard facts with determined optimism; and rally the country to make the sacrifices required to conquer the evil.  You don’t have to be much of a student of history to recall those moments when presidents past made their marks: FDR in fighting first the Depression and then the Nazis, JFK and the Cuban Missile Crisis, George H.W. Bush and the Gulf War, George W. Bush and 9/11.  Each found the proper notes, each were rewarded with sky high approval ratings.

Um, that hasn’t happened here.  Not a bit.  No cold hard facts, no call for sacrifice, no soaring above the fray.  And Trump has not been rewarded by bipartisan support.  Instead, he has veered from minimizing the threat, to embracing it, to rejecting it again and finally the low mark, the insanity of the Call for Lysol, which plunged his “handling the crisis” ratings back down to the low 40% range.

TRUMP HANDLING OF CORONAVIRUS
Week ending	3/7	3/14	3/21	3/28	4/4	4/11	4/18	4/25	5/2
Approve	41	44	50	51	45	46	47	46	42
Disapprove	48	51	45	45	47	51	51	51	53
Net	-7	-7	5	6	-2	-5	-4	-5	-11

Some deeper perspective on Trump’s performance is given in this chart, from Morning Consult, which covers a range of metrics.  Trump fails to clear 50% approval on any measure, but comes closest on economic matters.  He falls particularly short – below 40% -- on such measures as providing accurate information, adequate testing and developing a vaccine.  He barely does better – at the 40% mark – for managing the spread of the virus and ensuring hospitals are properly equipped.  This is a hideous scorecard for the crisis of our times – and many governors of both parties are doing far better.

TRUMP APPROVAL RATING

But while his handling of the coronavirus approval levels have risen and fallen over the duration of the crisis, his overall approval rating has been as placid as a pond in New Hampshire on a lazy summer’s day.  It has risen modestly in the face of the crisis, and held at 45% through the month of April.

April became the 28^th consecutive month that his approval rating was in the 40-45% range. 

That’s a long way from the maximum levels of bi-partisan support enjoyed by JFK in the Cuban Missile crisis (67%), George H.W. Bush in the Gulf War (86%) and George W. Bush after 9/11 (also 86%).

TRUMP APPROVAL RATING
	2017		2018		2019		2020
	1H	2H	1H	2H	1H	2H	J	F	M	A
Approve	44	39	42	43	42	43	43	44	45	45
Disapprove	50	56	54	53	54	54	54	54	53	53
Net	-6	-17	-12	-10	-12	-11	-10	-11	-8	-8

TRUMP VERSUS BIDEN HEAD-TO-HEAD

Joe Biden continues to hold a commanding lead over Trump in national head-to-head polls.  However, it should be noted that due to the GOP’s structural advantages in the Electoral College (which essentially boils down to California being underrepresented), Biden +3 would be considered “even.” 

TRUMP VS BIDEN HEAD-TO-HEAD
NATIONAL
	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Biden	50	50	50	48
Trump	45	46	43	42
Diff	5	5	6	6

Biden is showing some daylight in aggregated swing state polling, now +3 versus Trump.

TRUMP VS BIDEN HEAD-TO-HEAD
SWING STATE
National	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Biden	48	46	47	48
Trump	45	47	45	45
Diff	3	-1	2	3
Swing states: AZ,FL,GA, IA, ME, MI, MN, NC, NV, OH, PA, TX, WI

GENERIC BALLOT

The Democrats continued to hold a healthy lead in the generic ballot, which is a very strong predictor of November performance.  If the Democrats continue to hold a 7-point lead come Election Day, they stand to pick up 15-20 more seats to add to their overwhelming majority in the House.

GENERIC BALLOT
	2019							2020
	Jn	Jl	A	S	O	N	D	J	F	M	A
Dems	45	46	47	47	47	47	48	45	47	49	46
GOP	39	38	38	39	39	39	41	41	40	40	39
Net	7	8	9	8	7	7	8	5	6	9	7

TRUMPOMETER

The Trumpometer sharply dropped from March to April, from +7 to -14, as the impact of the coronavirus began – though it is clear this number will go much lower in the coming months.  The -14 Trumpometer reading means that, on average, our five economic measures are 14% lower than they were at the time of Trump’s Inauguration, per the chart below (and with more explanation of methodology below). 

The Dow actually increased last month with the positive effect of all the stimulus packages, though it is down from its peak level.  Consumer confidence dropped sharply, not surprisingly, from 120 to 86.  Gas prices continued their free fall with the near-complete drop in demand.  This actually helps the index – low gas prices are better than high ones, but it is rather meaningless for house-bound consumers.  The GDP fell to -4.8% in the first quarter.  Only the unemployment rate has yet to see an impact, and that is only because the latest report has not come out yet (but will on May 8, and it will be a doozie).

The “Trumpometer” was designed to provide an objective answer to the legendary economically-driven question at the heart of the 1980 Reagan campaign:  “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”  The Trumpometer now stands at -14, which means that Donald Trump cannot make that claim, and pretty soon it will be at George W. Bush levels. 

	Clinton	Bush	Obama	Trump
TRUMPOMETER	End Clinton  1/20/2001	End Bush 1/20/2009	End Obama 1/20/2017 (Base = 0)	Trump 3/31/2020	Trump 4/30/2020	% Chg. Vs. Inaug. (+ = Better)
Trumpometer	25	-53	0	7	-14	-14%
Unemployment Rate	4.2	7.8	4.7	4.4	4.4	6%
Consumer Confidence	129	38	114	120	87	-24%
Price of Gas	1.27	1.84	2.44	2.10	1.87	23%
Dow Jones	10,588	8,281	19,732	21,917	24,346	23%
GDP	4.5	-6.2	2.1	2.1	-4.8	-100%

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Notes on methodology:

BTRTN calculates our monthly approval ratings using an average of the four pollsters who conduct daily or weekly approval rating polls: Gallup Rasmussen, Reuters/Ipsos and You Gov/Economist. This provides consistent and accurate trending information and does not muddy the waters by including infrequent pollsters.  The outcome tends to mirror the RCP average but, we believe, our method gives more precise trending.

For the generic ballot (which is not polled in this post-election time period), we take an average of the only two pollsters who conduct weekly generic ballot polls, Reuters/Ipsos and You Gov/Economist, again for trending consistency.

The Trumpometer aggregates a set of economic indicators and compares the resulting index to that same set of aggregated indicators at the time of the Trump Inaugural on January 20, 2017, on an average percentage change basis... The basic idea is to demonstrate whether the country is better off economically now versus when Trump took office.  The indicators are the unemployment rate, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, the Consumer Confidence Index, the price of gasoline, and the GDP.