THE
LEAD
·
Bernie Sanders, despite managing only a
squeaker of a win in New Hampshire (next door to his native Vermont) over Pete
Buttigieg, is in a commanding position in the race. He’s the odds-on leader in Nevada, in the top
tier in South Carolina, and well-positioned in Super Tuesday polling.
·
Mike Bloomberg loomed large over the field as the geyser-spending mystery guest for months, but when he finally made a live
appearance in the Nevada debates, he proved to be tentative, uninspiring, and
shockingly under-prepared to defend his very obvious soft spots.
·
The centrists are now scrambling to coalesce
around a candidate from among Bloomberg, Joe Biden, Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar
and stop the suddenly zooming Sanders’ express train to the Democratic Convention.
·
Elizabeth Warren may have revived her candidacy
with her skewering of Bloomberg, which could help slow down Sanders.
·
But the field is already game-planning for a
brokered convention, with only Sanders believing that the candidate with the
most delegates should definitively get the nomination
THE
FIELD
A
total of 28 Democrats (that is, legitimate national figures) have made a run
for the presidency in the 2020 cycle, a staggering number. The field has now narrowed to eight, still
large by post-New Hampshire standards.
Recent departures include Andrew Yang and a sweep-up of candidates who
never made a mark and stayed a bit too long at the party: Michael Bennet, John Delaney and Deval
Patrick.
The
Republican field, such as it is, dwindled to two with Joe Walsh’s departure,
leaving Trump with only William Weld offering nominal intra-party competition.
STATE
OF THE RACE
In a
“normal” year, given the results thus far, the storyline coming out of the
Iowa/New Hampshire contests would have been Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg
locked in a neck-and-neck struggle over party supremacy, with the rest of the
field licking their wounds, folding their tents, and lining up with one of the
candidates in the hopes of a prominent place in the new president’s
administration, perhaps even the vice-presidency.
But
nothing is normal this year, and for a variety of reasons, the storyline is, on
the one hand, simpler and, on the other, more complex. Simpler, because Buttigieg’s success – and he
actually has more delegates than Sanders – has been almost completely
discounted, perhaps because of Sanders’ presumed imminent win in Nevada. The simple fact is the race is Sanders’ to
lose at this point.
But it
is not quite that simple, because the other candidates have legitimate reasons
to believe they can prevail, as well as the resources and opportunities to do
so:
·
Joe Biden’ has a credible claim that voters of
color, the backbone of his support, were wildly underrepresented in the first
two contests and he will do better when the race goes south and west.
·
Amy Klobuchar pulled off a surprisingly close
third place finish in New Hampshire after a strong debate, breathing life into
a campaign that many thought would end in the Granite State
·
Michael Bloomberg, despite a disastrous debate
performance, cannot be written off given his saturation spending in Super Tuesday
states, and his chance for an improved performance in the South Carolina debate
·
Tom Steyer is doing reasonably well in Nevada
and South Carolina polling, which, combined with his own unlimited resources, makes
him a late-breaking factor as well
·
The debates, which occur frequently, have
proven to be capable of catapulting a laggard into contention, as Amy Klobuchar
did in New Hampshire and Elizabeth Warren did in Nevada
·
And the non-billionaires, except for Biden, all
have relatively flush war chests, which means they can all hang around for at
least the next few weeks
Having
said all that, Sanders is in a formidable position because of these four facts:
·
He finished in a virtual tie for first in Iowa and won New Hampshire.
·
He will almost certainly win in Nevada (see
below).
·
He will do respectably in South Carolina, and
may even win there.
·
He appears to be doing extremely well in
California, which is a Super Tuesday state and will provide a motherlode of
delegates for him (and he is well-positioned in other races that day as well).
The gusher
of delegates that could very well come his way in California alone, where he is
comfortably ahead, could give him a lead will be brutally difficult to overcome
even if a single centrist emerges in the aftermath of Super Tuesday to go
head-to-head with him. Sanders himself,
in 2016, and Clinton herself, in 2008, both found themselves behind Obama and
could not catch him, despite winning a surprising number of primaries and
caucuses over the entire course of the race.
Remember, Democratic primaries are NOT winner-take-all, and proportional
allocation makes it hard to secure the bushels of delegates it takes to
overcome a decent-sized lead.
This
is not a prediction, just a set of factual statements that, when you add them
up, lead to the conclusion that the centrists better start figuring out how to
deny Bernie a majority within the primary process, and get ready for a
second-ballot brawl at the convention.
NEVADA
PREVIEW AND PREDICTION
Nevada
has 48 delegates, similar in size to Iowa, and 36 of them will be allocated
based on the results of the caucuses.
Yes, Nevada is a caucus state, just like…Iowa.
And
the sad fact is, the Nevada State Democratic Party, try as they might, might
have just as much trouble as their counterparts in Iowa in actually off pulling
the contest competently, and delivering results promptly and efficiently. Nevada was planning to use the very same
Shadow app that caused all the problems in Iowa. The fact that they have switched to Google
Forms, running on some 2,000 IPads, with just weeks to go does not provide much
comfort. There have already been
grumblings about the level of training on the IPads.
When
it comes to getting a handle on the race, or predicting the outcome, caucuses
are much more difficult than primaries.
Polling can only take you so far; you have to adjust the results. The complications include early voting in
Nevada (there was no early voting in Iowa), so the final polls were fielded
after a healthy portion of the votes had already been cast (very healthy, in
fact, nearly 75,000 Nevadans voted early, not far from the total turnout in
2016, which was roughly 84,000). Second,
as in Iowa, there is a 15% threshold at the precinct level that a candidate
must achieve, otherwise supporters are released to make another choice. It is very difficult for polls to accurately
account for “second choices.” Third, the
polls do not account for the “getting out the vote” capability of the
organizations, which matters even more in a caucus, which demands far more time
and commitment than simply going to a voting booth. And finally, the debate and its aftermath
coverage will likely have a difficult-to-measure late-breaking impact on the
outcome.
Having
said that, it does not take much, given these many factors, to predict a winner
in Nevada, so we might as well get it out of the way. BTRTN predicts that Bernie
Sanders will win the Nevada caucuses by a healthy margin, though he will fall
far short of a majority.
There
have been three public polls in Nevada in February. The results from Iowa and New Hampshire have
amped the fortunes of Sanders, as well as Buttigieg and Klobuchar, as might be
expected; each roughly doubled their level of support, give or take. Biden fell a bit from January levels, and
Warren, Steyer and Gabbard stayed about the same.
Average of Nevada Polls
|
|||
Candidates
|
O/N (4)
|
Jan (2)
|
Feb (3)
|
Sanders
|
20
|
18
|
30
|
Biden
|
29
|
21
|
16
|
Warren
|
20
|
12
|
14
|
Buttigieg
|
7
|
7
|
14
|
Steyer
|
4
|
10
|
10
|
Klobuchar
|
2
|
3
|
10
|
Gabbard
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
Apart
from the gaping lead in the polls, Sanders went virtually untouched in the
debates – as the rest of the field either ganged up on Bloomberg or, in the
case of Buttigieg and Klobuchar, went after each other. Plus, Sanders has an extremely strong ground
game, rivalled perhaps only by Buttigieg and Warren. And finally, Bernie has money, the most of
any non-billionaire, so he can keep up with any airwave war, except for that of
Steyer, who has spent heavily here.
The
main question in Nevada is where will the others, with five of them incredibly
tightly bunched (Bloomberg is not on the ballot), place behind Sanders? Joe Biden’s own campaign has said he needs to
finish second to provide the required platform for a necessary South Carolina win. And the fact is that a fifth or sixth place
finish will be damaging to any of the candidates.
We foresee
Buttigieg and Warren outperforming their polls based on their ground game, poll
momentum and debate performance. Biden
and Klobuchar essentially fall the other way.
Steyer is a wild card, but has been steady in the polls at 10%. Both Klobuchar and Steyer could get shut out
in a number of precincts because of those polling levels, which could mean they
underperform the polls.
Nevada
|
Final
Polls % (Momentum)
|
BTRTN
Prediction %
|
Sanders
|
30
+
|
34
|
Buttigieg
|
14
+
|
18
|
Warren
|
14
=
|
17
|
Biden
|
16
=
|
16
|
Steyer
|
10
=
|
8
|
Klobuchar
|
10
=
|
7
|
Gabbard
|
2 =
|
0
|
Other
|
n/a
|
0
|
Bloomberg
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
LOOKING
AHEAD TO SOUTH CAROLINA
Next
up will be the South Carolina primary, on Saturday, February 29, with its 54
delegates and pivotal position in the race, the last contest before Super
Tuesday. This is, of course, Biden’s
infamous “firewall,” and he is still holding the lead in recent polling, albeit
a slim one with Sanders coming on strong. Steyer is in third place in the
polls, and this primary is crucial for him as well. Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar are all doing
rather tepidly in South Carolina, in the 10% or under range. This is a major problem for them – beyond simply
winning or losing here --- as it underscores their inability, as yet, to light
a fire under African-American voters, who comprise roughly 60% of likely
primary voters, and are, of course, a pivotal segment of the Democratic
coalition.
Average of South Carolina Polls
|
|||
Candidates
|
N/D (3)
|
Jan (3)
|
Feb (3)
|
Biden
|
35
|
33
|
25
|
Sanders
|
15
|
16
|
21
|
Steyer
|
4
|
17
|
16
|
Buttigieg
|
8
|
5
|
10
|
Warren
|
16
|
10
|
8
|
Klobuchar
|
1
|
2
|
7
|
Gabbard
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
AND TO
SUPER TUESDAY
Super
Tuesday will be on Tuesday, March 3, just 11 days from today, comprising 14
states plus American Samoa and Democrats Abroad, totaling a whopping 1,357
delegates. This is 29% of the entire
delegate pool of 4,750. Needless to say,
this will be a monumentally consequential day.
Much may be settled based on Super Tuesday results – the fate of several
candidacies, the viability of Bloomberg and the inevitability of Sanders will
all likely be determined. The shape of
the race, whatever it may be, will be clearer.
The field will certainly narrow.
Sanders
is also well-positioned in Super Tuesday states, and bear in mind these polls,
while recent, came before Bloomberg’s excruciating debate performance and two
days of appallingly bad debate coverage of him.
(Note that there have been only one or two polls in each state.)
Super
Tuesday
|
Cal (415)
|
Tex (228)
|
NCar
(110)
|
|||||
Sanders
|
27
|
24
|
23
|
21
|
25
|
22
|
21
|
14
|
Bloomberg
|
15
|
14
|
21
|
12
|
14
|
22
|
9
|
20
|
Biden
|
15
|
21
|
18
|
14
|
12
|
18
|
9
|
12
|
Warren
|
11
|
15
|
11
|
20
|
9
|
5
|
16
|
8
|
Buttigieg
|
11
|
7
|
11
|
15
|
16
|
11
|
10
|
11
|
Klobuchar
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
9
|
4
|
9
|
27
|
6
|
Gabbard
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
4
|
0
|
Steyer
|
4
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Apart
from Sanders’ strength, of note in these polls is the reasonably solid platform
Biden has if he actually manages to win in South Carolina. Buttigieg and Klobuchar clearly are still fighting
for name recognition. And, even if
Steyer manages strong efforts in Nevada and/or South Carolina, he has basically
zero presence in the Super Tuesday races.
These
Super Tuesday observations are supported by the national polling numbers, which
is not a surprise. Many Super Tuesday
voters are not terribly different from others who have primaries later in the
year, not terribly plugged in as yet.
Average of National Polls for the Month (last 12 months)
|
||||||||||||
Candidates
|
M
|
A
|
M
|
Jn
|
Jl
|
A
|
S
|
O
|
N
|
D
|
J
|
F
|
Sanders
|
23
|
23
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
17
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
19
|
26
|
Biden
|
29
|
31
|
37
|
34
|
30
|
30
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
29
|
19
|
Bloomberg
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
4
|
6
|
15
|
Warren
|
7
|
6
|
8
|
10
|
13
|
15
|
17
|
23
|
21
|
16
|
15
|
13
|
Buttigieg
|
0
|
3
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
10
|
7
|
10
|
Klobuchar
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
6
|
Gabbard
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
Steyer
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
WHO
CAN BEAT TRUMP?
In
five polls in February that measure Trump head-to-head versus the leading Democratic
candidates, both nationally and in five swing states (assuming one considers
Texas a swing state), Biden, Sanders and Bloomberg are the field and more or
less in the same place, with Biden and Bloomberg perhaps slightly better positioned
in the swing states. Buttigieg,
Klobuchar and Warren do not do as well, and are also tightly packed.
Keep
in mind these polls preceded the Nevada debate, but all followed the Iowa and
New Hampshire contests. Thus, as poorly
as Biden did in the contests, he has not been hurt in the head-to-heads in the
swing states (or nationally). He can
continue to make the “electability” claim, but he cannot claim to have much of
an advantage here, if any, over Sanders.
Head-to-Head Polls Dems Vs Trump
|
||
Feb 2020 Polls
|
National
|
Swing state (polls in FL, MICH, PA, TX, WIS)
|
Bloomberg
|
+ 5
|
+
0.8
|
Biden
|
+ 5
|
+
0.4
|
Sanders
|
+ 5
|
0
|
Warren
|
+ 2
|
-
1.6
|
Buttigieg
|
+ 2
|
-
2.4
|
Klobuchar
|
+ 2
|
-
2.4
|
CAN
BERNIE BE DERAILED?
Sanders
is in a compelling position, to say the least.
But there are at least a few plausible ways one can see this turning.
·
Buttigieg could dramatically outperform in
Nevada, closing the gap with Sanders (yet again), badly beating Biden (yet
again), and Klobuchar as well -- thus laying a strong claim to the centrist
mantle and turning it into a two person race.
Pete is a “straight A” debate performer with a strong likability factor,
and Bernie’s constant rage could work against him at a time when America may
prefer calm progress over a fiery revolution.
·
Biden could win South Carolina and turn the
race into the Bernie/Biden match-up many had long expected.
·
Bloomberg could recover in the South Carolina
debate, and his boosters – intent only on beating Trump with what they view as
the best option available -- may overlook not only his debate debacle, but also
the warts it uncovered, and rally to their man on Super Tuesday.
·
Warren could outperform in Nevada based on her
outstanding debate night, and cut into Sanders’ margin considerably, throwing
the progressive lane back into the mix.
·
Steyer’s performances in Nevada and South
Carolina could not only put him back in the mix, but hurt Sanders. Steyer is not a centrist; he is a flat-out
progressive and he does well among minority voters. This could put a dent in the Sanders
bandwagon, especially since Steyer can stay in the race and outspend Sanders at
will.
It is
hard to see Klobuchar emerging at this point; she simply did not have a good night
at the debates and is back to her perilous pre-New Hampshire position, trailing
a crowded centrist field in Nevada.
To the
extent that we head on to a contested convention, the key issue there will be
the extent of Sanders’ plurality (assuming he has one). If he is the dominant player in a large
field, leading in percentage of delegates by, say 40% to a bunch of 10-15%
counts for various others, it would be hard to deny him the nomination. But if it is closer – say, Sanders at 30% and
several other centrists in the 15-20% range who add up to a majority, then we
can see the superdelegates – 700+ strong who can vote in the second ballot –
coalescing around a centrist candidate.
The party regulars who comprise that superdelegate pool fear a Sanders’
candidacy, believing feeding a socialist (even a “Democratic” one) to Trump is
not only a loser for the presidency but could also hurt the party down the
ballot, as the GOP would ensure that every candidate bears the socialist label.
One
telling question at the debate, raised by Chuck Todd, was whether the
candidates believe that the delegate leader should get the nomination even if
they fell short of a majority after the first ballot; all the candidates said
the party should stick “with the process” rather than simply anoint the leader –
except Sanders.
THE
GOP RACE
Trump has
accumulated 61 delegates thus far, of the 1,732 he needs to be
re-nominated. His only challenger,
Williams Weld, actually managed to pick one up.
Having said that, this is not exactly a nail-biter, and don’t look for
Weld to join Trump on any debate stage before the GOP convention.
THE
FULL FIELD
Here
are the entire Democratic and Republican fields as of today, ranked by the most
recent national polls.
Democratic Candidates
|
Age
|
Announcement Date
|
Credentials
|
Latest national polls (Feb 2020)
|
|
Bernie Sanders
|
78
|
2/19/2019
|
Senator, Vermont
|
26%
|
|
Joe Biden
|
77
|
4/25/2019
|
Ex-VP and Ex-Senator, Delaware
|
19%
|
|
Michael Bloomberg
|
77
|
11/24/2019
|
Ex-Mayor of New York City
|
15%
|
|
Elizabeth Warren
|
70
|
12/31/2018
|
Senator, Massachusetts
|
13%
|
|
Pete Buttigieg
|
38
|
1/22/2019
|
Ex-Mayor, South Bend, Indiana
|
10%
|
|
Amy Klobuchar
|
59
|
2/10/2019
|
Senator, Minnesota
|
6%
|
|
Tulsi Gabbard
|
38
|
1/11/2019
|
Representative, Hawaii
|
2%
|
|
Tom Steyer
|
62
|
7/9/2019
|
Billionaire hedge fund manager
|
2%
|
|
Republican Candidates
|
Age
|
Announcement Date
|
Credentials
|
Latest national polls
|
|
Donald Trump
|
73
|
6/18/2019
|
President
|
86%
|
|
William Weld
|
74
|
4/15/2019
|
Ex-Governor, Massachusetts
|
2%
|
If you would like to be on the Born To Run The
Numbers email list notifying you of each new post, please write us at borntorunthenumbers@gmail.com.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Leave a comment