THE
LEAD
These
are the main headlines for the past month of the 2020 presidential campaign, from
mid-October to mid-November:
·
It’s a four-candidate race in Iowa, with Pete
Buttigieg nudging ahead of the field, followed (very) closely by Elizabeth
Warren, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.
·
But recent polls show that Warren’s upward dash in Iowa and New Hampshire may have peaked, as she comes under attack for her “Medicare
for All” policy, which is now defining her campaign (oddly, since it is the only policy plan that she did not author herself, instead she endorsed Sanders’ plan).
·
Biden continues to show resiliency in the face
of an uneven run, maintaining the same lead in the national polls he has
enjoyed for months, still holding at roughly 30% of Democrats. He also continues to be the strongest
candidate versus Trump in head-to-head polling, particularly in the key red
states that must be flipped on the “path to 270” in 2020.
·
Those rumblings of dissatisfaction with the
state of the field you heard turned out to be the footsteps of Deval Patrick,
who entered the race, and Mike Bloomberg, who met a filing deadline for Alabama,
though remains undeclared.
·
Heretofore minor candidates are showing the
slightest signs of life here and there, and our eyes are on Amy Klobuchar – is
she entering the radar screen in Iowa?
THE
FIELD
The
Democratic field lost two candidates, notably Beto O’Rourke and, less notably,
Mike Ryan, to winnow the field to 17, but then added Deval Patrick, the former
governor of Massachusetts. So we are now
at 18, still a remarkably unwieldy number at this juncture. And Michael Bloomberg, the former Mayor of
New York City, met a filing deadline for early primaries and indicated a full
decision to enter the race would be made quite soon. Both indicated they would likely skip Iowa,
and Bloomberg might actually take a pass on all four early races and make a
play for Super Tuesday.
The
Republican field, such as it is, dwindled from four to three with the departure
of Mark Sanford, the former Governor of South Carolina.
THE
MONTH
The
race, with 77 days to go before the Iowa caucuses, is wide, wide open. The “top tier” contenders in Iowa are bunched
within seven percentage points, and yet another new face, Pete Buttigieg, is at
the top of the polls. If Iowa is wide
open, then so is the entire race.
But
that’s not all. Might some of the other
candidates, long plodding in the nether regions of polling, be making moves, at
long last? Amy Klobuchar has hit the 5%
mark in Iowa, a modest milestone, to be sure, but perhaps indicative of an
opening for her in the “moderate” lane.
Andrew Yang has hit 4% in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and Tom Steyer
has done the same in South Carolina.
And
who knows…Deval Patrick could make a mark in neighboring (from his home base in
Massachusetts) New Hampshire. And then
there is Mike Bloomberg, unannounced and with no real toehold in the crowded
field, but a big-name billionaire with strong moderate credentials.
The
Democrats have not had a race this wide open since 1992, when the virtual
unknown Bill Clinton took the nomination, after having won neither Iowa (which
went to favorite son Tom Harkin) nor New Hampshire (which went to next-door
Senator Paul Tsongas).
Let’s
take a look at the frontrunners.
Pete
Buttigieg has jumped to the lead in Iowa, based on three recent polls by
respectable pollsters. (Keep in mind
that polls in Iowa do not translate to outcomes as easily as in primary states,
because the caucus process is so cumbersome compared to traditional primary
balloting.) Pete is benefitting from his
own effortless acumen and charisma, in both the debates and on the campaign
trail. He has focused like a laser on
Iowa, which has helped, and he is a fundraising darling. And, perhaps most importantly, he has
positioned himself successfully as a viable alternative to the aging,
gaffe-prone Biden and the probably-too-bold-for-the-Midwest Warren (and
Sanders). Pete’s Achilles’ heel remains
his lukewarm (at best) support in the African-American community, a weakness
that will not be revealed in either lily-white Iowa or New Hampshire but could hurt
him down the road.
Elizabeth
Warren just may have peaked too soon.
Her electric run straight up the polls over the last six months has
ended in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and she has made no progress – at all –
against Biden in South Carolina and not much in Nevada. Warren’s dream is a “knockout blow,” to win
both Iowa and neighboring New Hampshire, but her policies may prove too hot for
either of these purplish states. The
best issue for the Democrats – the one that fueled their 2018 House-flipping
blue wave – is health care, and Warren’s call for Medicare for All is, at best,
an unneeded complication, and at worse, a scary vote-repelling alternative in
the swing states the Democrats need to win in a general election. Clearly, having earned the frontrunner
spotlight over the past few months, she took some heat (Klobuchar landing
solidly in the latest debate), and doubt is emerging that her bold (and
expensive) progressive policies are right for the times.
Joe
Biden continues to show modest declines in Iowa and New Hampshire but
resiliency in Nevada and his personal firewall in South Carolina. Is “comfortable Joe” in fact everyone’s Plan
B at this point, the one who might only be embraced once others are carefully
examined and discarded? We have all
known Joe Biden for years, whereas the other candidates, even Bernie Sanders,
are relatively new. They are undergoing
intense examination now and will be found either appealing or lacking. If they pass the scrutiny, they will soar
past Biden, but if they falter, he is there, as always, a ready, willing,
capable, experienced and likable centrist nominee. Biden’s strongest credential is his
“electability,” as demonstrated by his head-to-head polling versus Trump, which
continues to lead the field both nationally and in the swing states. And from an early state strategy standpoint,
he needs to survive intact until South Carolina, where he remains dominant due
to African-American support. Joe needs a
Top Three finish in both Iowa and New Hampshire, at the very least, and he can
perhaps even get away with a tightly bunched fourth-place finish (New Hampshire
is Sanders and Warren country).
As for
Bernie Sanders, the good news is that he emerged from his heart attack more or
less intact. He is doing better
physically (feeling better than ever and taking better care of himself on the
trail) and surprisingly well in the polls, where he has shown no slippage. The problem is, he has never been able to
expand his support beyond his exuberant core, and he still trails Warren in the
progressive “lane.” And it is difficult
to see how he changes either dynamic, in particular as progressive boldness is
being challenged. New Hampshire is
looming as a showdown between the two progressive neighbors, Warren and
Sanders.
Other
candidates are showing signs of life.
Amy Klobuchar, as noted, had a terrific performance in the last debate,
finally giving a coherent counter to Warren’s in-your-face let’s-dream-big
policy pitch. If Klobuchar is going to
make a move, this is the time. Tom
Steyer and Andrew Yang are the non-politician curiosities in the field, and
they too are showing signs of life. So too
is the mysterious Tulsi Gabbard, whom Hillary Clinton inexplicably brought to
the headlines by suggesting the Russians were grooming her for a third-party
run. Gabbard was slow to support
impeachment, and seems to be carving out a niche of support among conservative
Democrats – an exceedingly small, nearly oxymoronic group, but a toehold, nonetheless.
Kamala
Harris, Cory Booker and Julian Castro have all pretty much been forgotten. Harris’s numbers have dropped across the
board, Booker’s as well except for South Carolina, and Castro will not even be
on the stage for the next debate. Castro
has sunk to the levels of Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, John Delaney, Marian
Williamson and Joe Sestak, who all carry on for no sensible reason.
Deval
Patrick entered the race but it is hard to see him making a dent. While his political base of Massachusetts is
next door to New Hampshire, he will have to battle Warren and Sanders for home field
advantage and, needless to say, they have strong head starts. And his deep ties to Bain Capital, and to
corporate life in general, do not bode well in these progressive times.
Michael
Bloomberg has wealth, a solid track record, and a centrist positioning, but he
is essentially a man without a party.
While Donald Trump, another billionaire (perhaps) who has dabbled in all
parties, found a way to hijack the GOP for his purposes, it is hard to see
Bloomberg doing the same with the Democrats (no matter how often he denounces
his own Dem-detested “stop and frisk” policy).
His 2% showing in Iowa polls, and 4% nationally, are not indicative of a
party viewing him as their savior. And
his strategy of dumping the early states and making his bid on Super Tuesday is
dubious, to say the least. Camping out
in Nevada and saturating its airwaves might be the better approach.
There
is an upcoming debate on November 20 in Atlanta, and ten candidates have
qualified: the Big Four plus Booker,
Gabbard, Harris, Klobuchar, Steyer and Yang.
They are running out of time to make a difference, and you may see them
turning their sites on Mayor Pete – a difficult target and one who has
demonstrated a smooth and effective counterpunch already.
Despairing
Democrats, who fear this set of candidates does not have what it takes to take
down Trump, should take heart in the outcomes of the few elections that were
held in November. The Democrats,
astonishingly, defeated the incumbent Republican Governor of deep red Kentucky,
the widely (and wildly) disliked Matt Bevin; flipped both chambers of the
Virginia Legislature to achieve a trifecta in that increasingly blue state;
defended another Deep South gubernatorial seat in Louisiana by re-electing John
Bel Edwards; and across the country, in particular Pennsylvania, made blue
inroads in local elections. These
elections, along with prior special elections in 2017, 2018 and 2019 as well as
the midterms, all point to a repudiation of Donald Trump. This long-running performance needs a grand
finale on November 3, 2020.
THE
NUMBERS
Iowa: Pete takes his turn at the top; Warren
stumbles under harsh scrutiny of Medicare for All; Biden slips a nit again;
Sanders holds serve after his heart attack; Klobuchar takes a small step up to
the 5% mark. The top four are quite
bunched and the race is truly wide open.
Average of Iowa Polls
|
|||
Candidates
|
J/A/S (7)
|
Oct (5)
|
Nov (3)
|
Buttigieg
|
9
|
14
|
22
|
Warren
|
19
|
22
|
18
|
Biden
|
24
|
19
|
17
|
Sanders
|
14
|
15
|
15
|
Klobuchar
|
4
|
3
|
5
|
Harris
|
9
|
4
|
3
|
Steyer
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
Gabbard
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
Yang
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
New Hampshire: Biden, Warren and Sanders are
tied, with Pete on the rise, and Gabbard and Yang show strengthening pulses.
Nevada: Biden remains ahead, with Warren and Bernie
now tied for second. Pete is moving up,
and Steyer and Yang show modest signs of life.
South Carolina. Still a Biden stronghold, with no real
movement by the others, except perhaps Steyer and Booker (who is focusing here
at this point). Pete is actually fading
here, a troubling sign for him.
(Note
the columns on these charts vary from state to state, depending upon the
availability of polls.)
Average of NH Polls
|
Nevada Polls
|
Average of South Carolina Polls
|
|||||||||||
Candidates
|
J/A/S (11)
|
Early Oct (2)
|
Lt.O/ Nov (2)
|
Candidates
|
A/M/J (2)
|
J/A/S (5)
|
Nov (3)
|
Candidates
|
A/M/J (3)
|
J/A/S (8)
|
Oct (5)
|
||
Biden
|
23
|
24
|
18
|
Biden
|
31
|
25
|
28
|
Biden
|
43
|
40
|
39
|
||
Warren
|
19
|
29
|
17
|
Warren
|
15
|
16
|
20
|
Warren
|
11
|
15
|
13
|
||
Sanders
|
18
|
20
|
17
|
Sanders
|
18
|
20
|
19
|
Sanders
|
14
|
14
|
12
|
||
Buttigieg
|
8
|
8
|
13
|
Buttigieg
|
6
|
4
|
7
|
Harris
|
9
|
6
|
5
|
||
Gabbard
|
3
|
2
|
5
|
Harris
|
8
|
7
|
4
|
Steyer
|
0
|
2
|
4
|
||
Yang
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
Steyer
|
n/a
|
3
|
4
|
Booker
|
4
|
2
|
4
|
||
Harris
|
8
|
5
|
3
|
Yang
|
3
|
2
|
4
|
Buttigieg
|
8
|
4
|
2
|
||
Steyer
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
||||||||||
Klobuchar
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
||||||||||
National.
The picture looks
more stable on the national level.
Buttigieg is making very modest progress but likely needs the exposure
of an Iowa win (or even Top Three finish) to break through. Biden has stabilized, Warren flattened after
a six-month rise, and Sanders has been undisturbed by either his health issue
or the publicity around it. No one else
is showing any movement at the national level – to the extent that
matters. The real challenge is to make
an impact in the early states and use that momentum to build delegates
throughout the primary process in 2020.
Average of National Polls for the Month at Mid-Month
|
||||||||||
Candidates
|
Feb
|
Mar
|
Apr
|
May
|
Jun
|
Jul
|
Aug
|
Sep
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Biden
|
29
|
29
|
31
|
37
|
34
|
30
|
30
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
Warren
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
8
|
10
|
13
|
15
|
17
|
23
|
21
|
Sanders
|
17
|
23
|
23
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
17
|
16
|
17
|
Buttigieg
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
Harris
|
11
|
11
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
11
|
10
|
7
|
5
|
5
|
Yang
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
Booker
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
Klobuchar
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
Gabbard
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
Castro
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
Steyer
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
Bennet
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
Bullock
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
Delaney
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Williamson
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Sestak
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Messam
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
WHO
CAN BEAT TRUMP?
This
is the core measure of “electability” that thus far has been the calling card
of Joe Biden’s campaign (“I can beat Trump”).
Biden combines exceptional head-to-head polling numbers with a simple
path to 270 – taking back the Midwest – and on these pillars lays his claim to
electability.
Sanders
and Warren both do very well versus Trump nationally. But in swing state head-to-head polls, Biden
is ahead by a good +4 margin on average, which looms large when you consider
that 10 states were decided by four points or less in 2016. Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg hold only
narrow margins over Trump.
Head-to-Head October/November Polls Dems Versus Trump
|
||||
Nat'l/State
Polls
|
Biden
|
Warren
|
Sanders
|
Buttigieg
|
National
|
Biden
+10
|
Warren
+7
|
Sanders
+8
|
Buttigieg
+2
|
Avg.
Swing State
|
Biden
+4
|
Warren
+1
|
Sanders
+2
|
Buttigieg
+0.2
|
The
chart below shows the data swing state by swing state, ranked by blue to red
(according to the margin of Clinton/Trump in 2016). Biden does best in this states, beating Trump
in many states that went for Trump in 2016, in some cases by wide margins. Sanders does reasonably well, but Warren and
Buttigieg fare relatively poorly, particularly in those red states that must be
flipped on the path to 270.
State
|
2016 Margin
|
Versus Trump
|
|||
Biden
|
Warren
|
Sanders
|
Buttigieg
|
||
MAINE
|
+3
|
+12
|
+10
|
+10
|
+9
|
MINN
|
+2
|
+12
|
+11
|
+9
|
n/a
|
NEV
|
+2
|
+3
|
+1
|
+4
|
0
|
MICH
|
-0.2
|
+7
|
+2
|
+9
|
n/a
|
FL
|
-1
|
+4
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
PA
|
-1
|
+5
|
+2
|
+2
|
n/a
|
WISC
|
-1
|
+5
|
+1
|
+3
|
-2
|
AZ
|
-4
|
+2
|
-1
|
-3
|
n/a
|
NC
|
-4
|
+3
|
-1
|
0
|
-2
|
GA
|
-5
|
+8
|
+3
|
+4
|
+3
|
IOWA
|
-9
|
-2
|
-5
|
-1
|
-4
|
TX
|
-9
|
-7
|
-7
|
-5
|
n/a
|
OHIO
|
-11
|
+6
|
+4
|
+6
|
n/a
|
THE
GOP RACE
Is
there a GOP race? Not really. Recent polls – yes, someone is doing them -- have
Trump at 87%. Williams Weld is at 2% and
Joe Walsh at 1%.
THE
FULL FIELD
Here
are the entire Democratic and Republican fields as of today.
Democratic Candidates
|
Age
|
Announcement Date
|
Credentials
|
Latest national polls
(10/16 - 11/15)
|
|
Joe Biden
|
76
|
4/25/2019
|
Ex-VP and Ex-Senator, Delaware
|
28%
|
|
Bernie Sanders
|
78
|
2/19/2019
|
Senator, Vermont
|
23%
|
|
Elizabeth Warren
|
70
|
12/31/2018
|
Senator, Massachusetts
|
16%
|
|
Kamala Harris
|
55
|
1/18/2019
|
Senator, California
|
6%
|
|
Pete Buttigieg
|
37
|
1/22/2019
|
Mayor, South Bend, Indiana
|
5%
|
|
Andrew Yang
|
44
|
11/6/2017
|
Entrepreneur
|
2%
|
|
Cory Booker
|
50
|
2/1/2019
|
Senator, New Jersey
|
2%
|
|
Amy Klobuchar
|
59
|
2/10/2019
|
Senator, Minnesota
|
1%
|
|
Julian Castro
|
45
|
1/10/2019
|
Ex-Secretary, HUD
|
1%
|
|
Tulsi Gabbard
|
38
|
1/11/2019
|
Representative, Hawaii
|
1%
|
|
Steve Bullock
|
53
|
5/14/2019
|
Governor, Montana
|
1%
|
|
Marianne Williamson
|
67
|
1/28/2019
|
Self-help author
|
1%
|
|
Tom Steyer
|
62
|
7/9/2019
|
Billionaire hedge fund manager
|
1%
|
|
Michael Bennet
|
54
|
5/2/2019
|
Senator, Colorado
|
0%
|
|
John Delaney
|
56
|
7/28/2017
|
Representative, Maryland
|
0%
|
|
Wayne Messam
|
45
|
3/28/2019
|
Mayor, Miramar, Florida
|
0%
|
|
Joe Sestak
|
67
|
6/23/2019
|
Ex-Representative, Pennsylvania
|
0%
|
|
Deval Patrick
|
63
|
11/13/2019
|
Ex-Governor, Massachusetts
|
0%
|
|
Republican Candidates
|
Age
|
Announcement Date
|
Credentials
|
Latest national polls
(10/16 - 11/15)
|
|
Donald Trump
|
73
|
6/18/2019
|
President
|
86%
|
|
William Weld
|
74
|
4/15/2019
|
Ex-Governor, Massachusetts
|
2%
|
|
Joe Walsh
|
57
|
8/25/2019
|
Ex-Representative, Illinois
|
1%
|
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