THE
LEAD
These
are the main headlines for the past month of the 2020 presidential campaign, from
mid-September to mid-October:
·
Joe Biden continues to lead in the national
polls, still holding at roughly 30% of Democrats.
·
But Elizabeth Warren made a huge jump, now alone in second place and closing fast on Biden.
·
The first three “early states” – Iowa, New
Hampshire and Nevada – are now all very close races. Warren is slightly ahead in Iowa, more so in
New Hampshire and Nevada is a three-way tie.
·
Biden continues to dominate South Carolina, the
only early state with a strong African-American presence, his strongest
demographic and his “firewall.”
·
Bernie Sanders suffered a heart attack while on
the road, bringing the age of all three leading candidates into sharp focus;
Sanders, while sidelined, lost some ground nationally and in Iowa.
,
·
Pete Buttigieg is rising in the polls in Iowa,
and is now effectively tied with Sanders for third in that crucial state, potentially
a major development if he continues to trend up.
·
It is too soon to tell if the October 15
debates will have any impact on the field either nationally or in the early
states, but the view here is “not likely” as Biden, Warren and Sanders –
looking well -- all had good nights.
Many others were strong as well – Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Booker and
Steyer had their moments – but not enough to move the needle.
THE
FIELD
The
Democratic field lost only one candidate in the last month, New York City Mayor
Bill deBlasio, and remains bloated at 19; the GOP field remains at four,
including President Trump.
THE
MONTH
The
month featured major stories around each of the three Top Tier candidates.
Joe
Biden found himself at the epicenter of the most damning and dangerous Trump
morass of them all, the Ukraine scandal.
Unlike the Russia scandal, with its myriad of charges, bit players, and
lack of a “smoking gun,” this one is crystal clear. Trump, with a great deal of help from Rudy
Giuliani, appears to have set up a shadow foreign policy with Ukraine with one goal: dig up dirt on Joe Biden, the Democratic
challenger Trump fears most. To achieve
that end, Trump dangled a White House meeting and the release of foreign aid,
and thus is now the subject of an impeachment inquiry for abuse of power for
personal gain. With the smoking gun discovered,
Democrats quickly coalesced behind, and quickly commenced, an impeachment inquiry. There has never been a whiff of evidence that
Biden (or his son, Hunter) committed any wrongdoing (the case was dropped), but
unfortunately, he will have to endure the constant mention of his name
throughout the impeachment proceedings.
It is
hard to predict the impact of the Ukraine matter on his presidential race. The polls have held up, it appears, and his
performance in last night’s debate defending himself and his son seemed to play
well. But Hunter Biden’s Ukraine board
role is an uncomfortable association for Biden, since it is clear the younger
Biden had no particular experience to offer the board, apart from his name.
Bernie
Sanders faced a blow of a different kind, a heart attack while
campaigning. For the oldest candidate in
the field, this might have been (and still could be) the end of a good run, as
Bernie must endure even closer scrutiny about his age and capability to
withstand the rigors of the White House.
(It doesn’t help Biden, either, who, while seemingly in great health, is
just two years younger than Sanders). Bernie
was already being elbowed aside by Elizabeth Warren in the progressive “lane”
that he invented in challenging Hillary Clinton four years ago. The heart attack truly added injury to
insult. Sanders’ supporters will surely
stick with him, but it is hard to imagine how he will expand his support in either
the short- or longer term, given Warren’s galloping pace on the road and in the
polls.
Warren
had been rising steadily in the polls since May, both nationally and in the “early”
states. But this past month, she jumped
mightily nationally and in Iowa and New Hampshire, so much so that she became the
primary target of “incoming” rather than Biden in the debate. She took a fair amount of heat for not
letting the words “yes, ‘Medicare For All’ will result in a tax increase for
everyone” (that is the clip the GOP desperately wants to see, for future ads),
but beyond that displayed her usual winning mix of detailed plans, personal
stories, fighting passion and sincere empathy.
But
there are two emerging stories that have gone largely unreported. One is the rise of Pete Buttigieg in
Iowa. The ground reports on Pete in the
Hawkeye State have been glowing for months, but none of that reported appeal
has turned into poll momentum (beyond his electric introduction last
spring. Mayor Pete has been stuck on
Mount Plateau ever since…until this past month, when three separate polls had
him in double digits and catching up to Sanders. If Mayor Pete – or anyone younger than 70 –
is able to snag a top three spot in the Iowa caucus, that would be a
significant development.
The
other story is Super Tuesday. With
everyone focused on Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, no one has
been focused on the true prize. The
early states have 155 delegates at stake, but Super Tuesday has 1,255. And the news is that, if Biden can survive
the first three contests and win South Carolina (where he continues to lead by
a mile), he is well positioned for a delegate haul on Super Tuesday. Among the
14 states which comprise that mega-date are many that are better-suited to his
core demographic appeal: southern and
western moderates and African-Americans.
The slate includes Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Oklahoma,
Utah and Arkansas, as well as Minnesota.
Among
these Super Tuesday states, Biden leads in Texas by +10, and in North Carolina
by +16 (he is tied in deep blue California and Massachusetts). More importantly, Biden’s campaign is well aware
of Super Tuesday’s potential, and, unlike other candidates, is building out his
organization there already.
Fundraising
for the quarter did not match the rankings.
Warren and Sanders led with $25 million each, Buttigieg hauled in
another $19 million, and Biden managed $16 million. Biden has never been a good fundraiser and
does not have much of a network, so his middling numbers are not terribly
surprising. But the others are machines
and at some point this could be a major factor, especially in building that
ground game.
THE
NUMBERS
The
national numbers have basically held for almost everyone, except Warren, who
jumped six points. Biden held at 28% and
Harris dropped again, and, if trends continue, she might join the Yang/O’Rourke/Booker
triumvirate on the fringes of the stage.
When
you break the numbers down a little further, in the last half of the month (essentially
October polls to date), fielded after Bernie’s heart attack – Warren actually rose
to 26%, and Bernie was at 15%. Warren is
clearly soaring now.
Average of National Polls for the Month at Mid-Month
|
||||||||||
Cand.
|
Feb
|
Mar
|
Apr
|
May
|
Jun
|
Jul
|
Aug
|
Sep
|
Oct
|
Chng from last month
|
Biden
|
29
|
29
|
31
|
37
|
34
|
30
|
30
|
28
|
28
|
0
|
Warren
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
8
|
10
|
13
|
15
|
17
|
23
|
6
|
Sanders
|
17
|
23
|
23
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
17
|
16
|
-1
|
Buttigieg
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
1
|
Harris
|
11
|
11
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
11
|
10
|
7
|
5
|
-2
|
Yang
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
O'Rourke
|
7
|
6
|
8
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
2
|
-1
|
Booker
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
Klobuch.
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Gabbard
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Castro
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Williams.
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Steyer
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Bennet
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Bullock
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
-1
|
Delaney
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Ryan
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Sestak
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Messam
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Other/NA
|
20
|
13
|
10
|
7
|
15
|
14
|
10
|
11
|
9
|
n/a
|
There
is a similar story in Iowa, with Warren on the rise. But Warren has caught Biden there (even
marginally ahead), as he slipped a bit after months in the 25% range. And Sanders fell as well, and now is
basically even with Buttigieg. This
race is wide open.
Iowa Polls
|
||||
Candidates
|
Jan/Feb/Mar
|
Apr/May/Jun
|
Jul/Aug
|
Sep/Oct
|
Warren
|
10
|
10
|
17
|
23
|
Biden
|
27
|
25
|
26
|
21
|
Sanders
|
21
|
18
|
16
|
14
|
Buttigieg
|
6
|
12
|
7
|
12
|
Harris
|
12
|
6
|
12
|
5
|
Klobuchar
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
Steyer
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
3
|
3
|
Booker
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
Gabbard
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
O'Rourke
|
5
|
4
|
1
|
2
|
Yang
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
Ryan
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
1
|
Williamson
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Bennet
|
n/a
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Castro
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
Delaney
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
Messam
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Warren
has taken the lead flat-out in New Hampshire, a neighboring state to her
Massachusetts and basically a must-win for her (also true for Bernie, another neighbor). Biden and Sanders are hanging in there, for
now, and Mayor Pete has a nice base if he can get a boost with a good showing
in Iowa. Harris has faded here as well,
squandering a good start.
There
are no recent polls in Nevada, so there is no read there on the Biden Ukraine
news, the Sanders heart attack or the Warren rise. South Carolina does have October polls, and
none of those happenings have made a dent here:
this is Biden country, and truly his firewall.
Average of NH Polls
|
Nevada Polls
|
Avg. of South Carolina Polls
|
|||||||||||
Cand.
|
Jul/
Aug (5)
|
Sep (6)
|
Oct (2)
|
Cand.
|
Gra.
8/16
|
Sep (3)
|
Cand.
|
J/A (4)
|
Sep (4)
|
Oct (3)
|
|||
Warren
|
16
|
22
|
29
|
Biden
|
29
|
25
|
24
|
Biden
|
43
|
40
|
39
|
||
Biden
|
22
|
24
|
24
|
Sanders
|
23
|
10
|
22
|
Warren
|
11
|
15
|
13
|
||
Sanders
|
17
|
19
|
20
|
Warren
|
12
|
15
|
18
|
Sanders
|
14
|
14
|
12
|
||
Buttig.
|
9
|
8
|
8
|
Harris
|
11
|
9
|
5
|
Harris
|
9
|
6
|
5
|
||
Harris
|
11
|
6
|
5
|
Buttigieg
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
Steyer
|
0
|
2
|
4
|
||
Yang
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
Steyer
|
1
|
6
|
3
|
Booker
|
4
|
2
|
4
|
||
Steyer
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
Yang
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
Buttigieg
|
8
|
4
|
2
|
||
Gabb.
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
Booker
|
3
|
3
|
2
|
||||||
Booker
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
||||||||||
Klob.
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
||||||||||
WHO IS
THE NUMBER TWO CHOICE?
While
Sanders’ supporters are among the most loyal, it is perhaps instructive to see
where they might go if he were to drop out at some point. The conventional wisdom, of course, is that
they will go to his ideological soulmate, Warren. But facts are a pesky thing, and the data
shows otherwise.
According
to Morning Consult, the latest “second choice” polling data indicates that the
second choice among Sanders’ supporters is split evenly between Biden (29%) and
Warren (28%) with Harris a poor third (6%).
Those who simply add up Warren and Sanders and assume the sum of the two
would crush Biden might want to re-think that basic assumption.
WHO
CAN BEAT TRUMP?
This
is the core measure of “electability” and thus far has been the calling card of
Joe Biden’s campaign (“I can beat Trump”).
Biden combines exceptional head-to-head polling numbers with a simple
path to 270 – taking back the Midwest – and on these pillars lays his claim to electability.
But
this month, Biden’s advantage in the head-to-head narrowed. While he still impressively clobbers Trump in
such polling, both Sanders and Warren are showing more strength on this
measure.
Average
of National Polls
|
||
Trump Vs:
|
Sep
|
Oct
|
Biden
|
Biden +10
|
Biden +9
|
Sanders
|
Sanders +5
|
Sanders +7
|
Warren
|
Warren +4
|
Warren +7
|
Biden’s electability factors holds on a state-by-state
basis as well, as demonstrated by a number of recent (October) polls. But Warren and Sanders are also, by and
large, consistently ahead of Trump in swing states:
Head-to-Head October State Polls Dems Versus Trump
|
|||
State
Poll
|
Biden
|
Warren
|
Sanders
|
Maine
|
Biden +12
|
Warren +10
|
Sanders +10
|
North
Carolina
|
Biden +4
|
Trump +1
|
Sanders +1
|
North
Carolina
|
Biden +5
|
Warren +3
|
Sanders +3
|
Wisconsin
|
Biden +9
|
Warren +4
|
Sanders +5
|
Average
|
Biden +8
|
Warren +4
|
Sanders +6
|
THE
GOP RACE
Is
there a GOP race? Not really. There have been eight national polls since
Labor Day of the full GOP field, and for those hoping that the GOP will find a
credible foe for Trump, better face a reality check. On average those polls have Trump at 88% and
the other three candidates – Weld, Walsh and Sanford – each at 2%.
THE
FULL FIELD
Here are
the entire Democratic and Republican fields as of today.
Democratic Candidates
|
Age
|
Announce. Date
|
Credentials
|
Latest national polls
(9/16 - 10/15)
|
|
Joe Biden
|
76
|
4/25/2019
|
Ex-VP and Ex-Senator, Delaware
|
28%
|
|
Bernie Sanders
|
77
|
2/19/2019
|
Senator, Vermont
|
23%
|
|
Elizabeth Warren
|
69
|
12/31/2018
|
Senator, Massachusetts
|
16%
|
|
Kamala Harris
|
54
|
1/18/2019
|
Senator, California
|
6%
|
|
Pete Buttigieg
|
36
|
1/22/2019
|
Mayor, South Bend, Indiana
|
5%
|
|
Beto O'Rourke
|
46
|
3/14/2019
|
Ex-Representative, Texas
|
3%
|
|
Andrew Yang
|
43
|
11/6/2017
|
Entrepreneur
|
2%
|
|
Cory Booker
|
49
|
2/1/2019
|
Senator, New Jersey
|
2%
|
|
Amy Klobuchar
|
58
|
2/10/2019
|
Senator, Minnesota
|
1%
|
|
Julian Castro
|
44
|
1/10/2019
|
Ex-Secretary, HUD
|
1%
|
|
Tulsi Gabbard
|
37
|
1/11/2019
|
Representative, Hawaii
|
1%
|
|
Steve Bullock
|
52
|
5/14/2019
|
Governor, Montana
|
1%
|
|
Marianne Williamson
|
66
|
1/28/2019
|
Self-help author
|
1%
|
|
Tom Steyer
|
62
|
7/9/2019
|
Billionaire hedge fund manager
|
1%
|
|
Michael Bennet
|
54
|
5/2/2019
|
Senator, Colorado
|
0%
|
|
John Delaney
|
55
|
7/28/2017
|
Representative, Maryland
|
0%
|
|
Tim Ryan
|
45
|
4/4/2019
|
Representative, Ohio
|
0%
|
|
Wayne Messam
|
44
|
3/28/2019
|
Mayor, Miramar, Florida
|
0%
|
|
Joe Sestak
|
67
|
6/23/2019
|
Ex-Representative, Pennsylvania
|
0%
|
|
Republican Candidates
|
Age
|
Announce. Date
|
Credentials
|
Latest national polls
(9/16 - 10/15)
|
|
Donald Trump
|
73
|
6/18/2019
|
President
|
87%
|
|
William Weld
|
74
|
4/15/2019
|
Ex-Governor, Massachusetts
|
2%
|
|
Joe Walsh
|
57
|
8/25/2019
|
Ex-Representative, Illinois
|
2%
|
|
Mark Sanford
|
59
|
9/8/2019
|
Ex-Governor, Rep, South Carolina
|
2%
|
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