THE
LEAD
These
are the main headlines for the past month of the 2020 presidential campaign,
from mid-August to mid-September:
·
Joe Biden remains at the head of the field
nationally, with slightly lower support levels than last month, while Elizabeth
Warren continues to climb, and is now tied for second with Bernie Sanders.
·
But the race has tightened in three of the four
“early” states, with Biden in a virtual tie with Sanders in Iowa and Nevada,
and with Sanders and Warren in New Hampshire.
·
The remaining candidates continue to trail the
“big three” by considerable margins nationally and state-by-state. Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg remain a cut
above the rest, and they are the only other candidates with material support.
·
The third Democratic debate featured only ten
candidates, the rest failing to meet polling and/or donation thresholds. Joe Biden came out strong in the debate but
faded into gaffe mode, raising questions once again about the long term
sustainability of his campaign. But he
scored early on both Warren and Sanders over their “Medicare For All” plan, and
came out on the sympathetic end of a clumsy Julian Castro attack on his
age. But Beto O'Rourke's passionate plea to ban assault weapons was the most powerful moment of the night.
·
Three more candidates dropped out of the race,
leaving the Democratic field at a still unwieldy 20
·
Relative newcomer Tom Steyer, who failed to
qualify for the September debate, has now qualified for the October debates,
meaning that once again the field will likely be split across two nights.
·
There are now three Republicans challenging
Donald Trump for the presidency. While
each of the three has credible credentials, none represent meaningful threats
to Trump.
·
Howard Schultz officially dropped his
consideration of a run as a third party independent
THE
FIELD
The
Democratic field contracted, while the GOP field expanded.
Three
more Democrats dropped out of the race:
Kirsten Gillibrand, Seth Moulton and Jay Inslee. Gillibrand had the highest profile of the
three, but her candidacy, focused on women’s rights, never took, despite some
decent moments in the first debate.
Neither Moulton, a Massachusetts representative who was a relatively
late entrant, nor Inslee, the Governor of Washington, who focused his campaign
on climate change, ever rose above the 1% mark.
The Democrats now number 20 entrants, including a dozen who have fared
no better in the polls than those who have departed.
Three
Republicans have emerged to challenge Donald Trump in the GOP primary: former Massachusetts Governor William Weld, a
libertarian who announced months ago; former Representative Joe Walsh, who
achieved a modicum of fame by yelling “You lie!” in the midst of one of
President Obama’s State of the Union addresses; and former Governor and Representative
Mark Sanford of South Carolina, who is best known for his attempted cover-up of
a marital affair (in which he claimed his six-day disappearance was explained
by hiking in the Appalachians). This is
not a distinguished field and will not likely disturb Trump too much; the RNC
will almost certainly not sanction a debate amongst the four candidates or any
subset thereof.
At the
end of this article you will find a chart summarizing the entire field, both
parties, with each grouping ranked by the candidates standing in the national
polls for the last month, from mid-August to mid-September.
THE
MONTH
Joe
Biden continued to face the music as the frontrunner, the target of most of the
slings and arrows and the relentless focus of the media. This is unfortunate for Biden because he has a
very long record to pick on, with many controversial moments, and he is far
from a gifted campaigner. Every day seems
to bring a new gaffe, from conflating three different veteran’s stories into
one messy and almost completely inaccurate one, to a strange and meandering
response to a question in the debates about the legacy of slavery, an answer
that, besides questioning minority parenting skills, also included a beyond-dated
reference to a “record player.”
But the
third debate featured a feisty Biden out of the gate, for a change, attacking
Warren for supporting Sanders’ “Medicare For All” plan and getting off a strong
line versus Sanders as well (“For a socialist you got a lot more confidence in
corporate America than I do.”). The first half-hour or so of the night was a
pure policy debate on the leading issue of our time, health care, and Biden
seemed to win it rather handily, as Warren danced around the issue of whether
Medicare For All would require the tax increases for the middle class (it would,
but Warren refused to say that out loud, instead couching her response in the
rather nebulous construct of “total cost” -- accurate, perhaps, but not
particularly clear or direct).
If the
debate had ended after an hour, Biden would have won it hands down. When Julian Castro staged an inartful attack
on Biden’s age (“are you forgetting what you just said two minutes ago?”),
Biden survived it easily (the audience gasped), but the contretemps allowed
other candidates an entry point on the delicate issue of Biden’s competence,
which took up a fair amount of post-debate oxygen. And, Biden’s “record player” reference was
certainly one of the most replayed moments of the night.
Neither
Warren nor Sanders brought their “A” game to the proceedings, either, and thus
the evening, strangely, ended up being more of a showcase for the rest of the
candidates. Some fared well in this unexpected
spotlight, notably Cory Booker, showing his trademark flashes of humor and
passion, and Amy Klobuchar, who finally articulated a coherent centrist
message. Some swung for the fences – notably
Castro, with his attack dog strategy (maybe trying to show-off his VP potential?)
and Andrew Yang, who offered a pint-sized, game show version of his trademark
minimum income pitch (“10 viewers will received $1,000 a month!”). Neither of the “next tier” rivals, Pete
Buttigieg and Kamala Harris, did any harm but Harris remains an inconsistent
performer and Buttigieg, the 37-year old, continues to sound like the adult in
the room – mature and thoughtful amidst the fray, but not particularly dynamic.
And
then there was Beto O’Rourke. O’Rourke’s
indifferent and disappointing campaign received the kind of boost that no one
wants with the mass killings in his hometown of El Paso. O’Rourke performed powerfully on the campaign
trail in the immediate aftermath of the tragedy, finding his voice in the pain
with his empathy on the one hand and his strident calls for gun control
measures on the other. In the debate, he
took it one step further with his clarion call for reclaiming assault weapons
(“Hell yes, we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47!”), the applause line of
the night. And yet, O’Rourke drew a
blunt attack from Senator Chris Coons for the giving the pro-gun forces a video
clip for the ages, and potentially upsetting any chance that more modest and
universally appealing measures, such as universal background checks, now being
debated, might actually find their way to Trump’s desk and be signed into law.
It
seems unlikely that this debate will shake up the polls in any meaningful way. That sets up the next debate (or debates) in
October, which will feature a new face, billionaire Tom Steyer, who qualified
for them with a 2% showing in a fourth major poll, enough to vault him to the
stage. Steyer is not a riveting
performer but he has achieved a level of support already (through the power of
the wallet) that many others have failed to reach.
But
there was a signal shift in the
debate, and that was Biden on the offensive, and attacking Warren directly, a
first thus far. Warren to date has
achieved more or less a free pass, and to the extent she keeps rising in the
polls (see below), this honeymoon will end.
And we will see how she fares in the glare of those attacks.
And
the overarching question remains….is Biden built to last, or will his campaign
die a death of a thousand gaffes? He has
a huge reservoir of goodwill, for sure.
But that might not be enough.
But the
Democrats got a break when Howard Schultz formally dropped his exploration of a
third party run. No matter who wins the
Democratic nomination, a Schultz candidacy would have helped Trump, of that
there can be little doubt.
THE
NUMBERS
Biden
continues to command a little less than one-third of Democratic voter
preference nationally, now at 28% on average for the 21 national polls that
were conducted over the last 30 days. This
is a modest decline from the 30% level he has enjoyed in the two prior months,
and too early to call a trend. His
support levels remains where they have been since before he announced.
Meanwhile,
Warren continues her steady climb, up another two points to 17%, her fifth
straight month of improvement from her low of 6% back in March/April. Bernie Sanders is also at 17%, roughly the
same level he has been at for the last five months. Kamala Harris was the big loser for the
month, dropping three more percentage points from 10% to 7%, while Pete
Buttigieg held at 5%.
The
only perceptible movement from the lesser candidates was another point up for
Andrew Yang; he has now risen to 3%, tied with Beto O’Rourke. Cory Booker held at 2%, which leaves a
remarkable dozen candidates at either 1% or 0%.
Why they have not faced the music and realized that they are serving no
useful purpose in carrying on is beyond me (with the exception of Steyer, who
will get his chance on the stage now that he has bought earned it).
Average of National Polls
|
|||||||||
Candidates
|
Jan 16 - Feb 15
|
Feb 16 - Mar 15
|
Mar 16 - Apr 15
|
Apr 16 - May 15
|
May 16 - Jun 15
|
Jun 16- Jul 15
|
Jul 16- Aug 15
|
Aug 16 - Sep 15
|
Change last month
|
Biden
|
29
|
29
|
31
|
37
|
34
|
30
|
30
|
28
|
-2
|
Sanders
|
17
|
23
|
23
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
17
|
1
|
Warren
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
8
|
10
|
13
|
15
|
17
|
2
|
Harris
|
11
|
11
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
11
|
10
|
7
|
-3
|
Buttigieg
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
5
|
0
|
O'Rourke
|
7
|
6
|
8
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
Yang
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
Booker
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
Klobuch.
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Gabbard
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Castro
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Bullock
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Williams.
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Steyer
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
DeBlasio
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Bennet
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Delaney
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
-1
|
Ryan
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Sestak
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Messam
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
At
this stage, however, the most important polls (and there are far fewer of them)
are in Iowa and, to a lesser extent, the other early states. In Iowa, there has been roughly one major
poll each month, which makes trends and conclusions harder to draw.
Biden
leads in Iowa, and his 29% support level is impressive given the absolute
absence of his strongest constituency, African-Americans, in the state. Biden has the support of roughly 40% of
Democratic African-Americans nationally, but that group comprises less than 5%
of Iowa caucus voters (and an even lower percentage of primary voters in New
Hampshire).
But
Biden is being challenged in Iowa now by Sanders. The polling has been very bumpy for Sanders,
showing absolutely no consistency, but we tend to favor the CBS/YouGov poll
over the Monmouth one (below), which has Sanders nipping at Biden’s heels at
26%. Warren remains in the mix in the
third slot, and Buttigieg and Harris trail with the same levels as in the
national polls and, again, no one else is making a dent.
Iowa Polls
|
|||||||
Candidates
|
3/16 - 4/15 (2 polls)
|
DMR /CNN 6/2-5
|
CBS/YG 5/31-
6-12
|
USA/Suff 6/28 - 7/1
|
CBS/YG
7/9-18
|
Mon
8/1-4
|
CBS/YG
8/28-
9/4
|
Biden
|
26
|
24
|
30
|
24
|
24
|
28
|
29
|
Sanders
|
20
|
16
|
22
|
9
|
19
|
9
|
26
|
Warren
|
9
|
15
|
12
|
13
|
17
|
19
|
17
|
Buttigieg
|
11
|
14
|
11
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
7
|
Harris
|
10
|
7
|
5
|
16
|
16
|
11
|
6
|
Klobuchar
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
Steyer
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
Booker
|
6
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
O'Rourke
|
5
|
2
|
4
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
Yang
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
1
|
Gabbard
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Delaney
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
Castro
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
Bennet
|
n/a
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Bullock
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Williamson
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Ryan
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Messam
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
DeBlasio
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
In the
campaign schedule, after Iowa’s caucus next February will come New Hampshire’s
primary, Nevada’s caucus and the South Carolina primary (in that order) – and
then Super Tuesday, which will include California for the first time. Biden is facing a stiff challenge from both
Warren and Sanders in New Hampshire, not surprising given both the demographic
makeup of the state (few African-Americans) and the fact that both Warren and
Sanders are neighbor state Senators.
Keep in mind that Sanders won New Hampshire by a whopping 22 points in
2016 over Hillary Clinton (60% to 38%).
Biden’s
campaign is, not surprisingly, lowering expectations in Iowa, New Hampshire and
Nevada, pinning its “must win” play on his South Carolina firewall. African-Americans comprise more than half of
the Democrats in South Carolina, and Biden’s lead there is solid.
But
the fact is, it will be extremely troubling if Biden does not win any of the
first two (or three) states, and I suspect that ultimately his campaign will
pull out all the stops in Iowa. Iowa’s
arcane caucus procedure is incredibly difficult to predict, so no doubt this is
a risky approach. But batting Warren and
Sanders in their backyard is perhaps even more difficult.
Average of NH Polls
|
Nevada Polls
|
Average of South Carolina Polls
|
|||||||||||
Candidate
|
Apr/May
/Jun
|
Jul/ Aug
|
Sep
|
Candidate
|
MC 7/1-21
|
Grav
8/16
|
CBS/YG
8/28-
9/4
|
Candidate
|
May/Jun
|
Jul/ Aug
|
Sep CBS
/YG
|
||
Biden
|
26
|
22
|
24
|
Sanders
|
23
|
10
|
29
|
Biden
|
43
|
37
|
43
|
||
Sanders
|
19
|
17
|
22
|
Biden
|
29
|
25
|
27
|
Sanders
|
14
|
14
|
18
|
||
Warren
|
9
|
16
|
22
|
Warren
|
12
|
15
|
18
|
Warren
|
11
|
11
|
14
|
||
Buttigieg
|
11
|
9
|
8
|
Harris
|
11
|
9
|
6
|
Harris
|
9
|
12
|
7
|
||
Harris
|
6
|
11
|
7
|
Buttigieg
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
Buttigieg
|
8
|
4
|
4
|
||
Gabbard
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
O'Rourke
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
Booker
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
||
Yang
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
Castro
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
||||||
Booker
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
Steyer
|
1
|
6
|
2
|
||||||
Delaney
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
||||||||||
WHO IS
THE NUMBER TWO CHOICE?
With
such a large field, and about 30% of the voters backing lesser candidates, it
is interesting, and perhaps even instructive, to look at what might happen once
the field winnows out. Morning Consult,
which conducts an excellent weekly poll, asks the question directly: who is your second choice?
Last
month we speculated that barring some unforeseen change in the trajectory of
the race, as of now we are moving toward a Biden-Warren showdown, two
candidates who represent the two wings of the party, two different styles,
levels of experience, genders, you name it.
So, based in the Morning Consult work, how might the race shake out if
it came down to the two of them?
The
chart below does the math. Surprisingly,
if Sanders were to drop out, his supporters split evenly between Biden and
Warren as a second choice, and the same goes for Buttigieg supporters. Only Harris supporters clearly favor Warren
as a second choice. When all the math is
complete, Biden is ahead of Warren by a 56/44 margin.
Per
Morning Consult 9/15
|
Own
Polling Level
|
From
Sanders
|
From
Harris
|
From
Buttigieg
|
Estimate
from all others
|
Total
|
Biden
|
32
|
6
|
1
|
1
|
16
|
56
|
Warren
|
18
|
6
|
2
|
1
|
17
|
44
|
Do not
put too much stock in this analysis. It
is a hypothetical built on a hypothetical.
Having said that, you should pay attention to the main takeaway: simply because Warren and Sanders come from
the same wing of the Democratic Party does not mean, necessarily, that if one
drops out, the other will zoom ahead of Biden.
WHO
CAN BEAT TRUMP?
Democrats
have indicated in polling that they are more likely to back the candidate they
think is most likely to beat Trump, rather than the one that best matches their
own views, by roughly a two-to-one margin. And thus the head-to-head polls of leading
Democrats versus Trump bear a close watch.
There
were four head-to-head polls pitting Trump against the leading Dem contenders
in the last month, and, in each instance, on average, the Democrat beat
Trump. Joe Biden commanded the largest
margin, a stunning +13, while Pete Buttigieg edges by Trump by +2.
Average
of four polls
|
|
Trump Versus:
|
8/16 - 9/15
|
Biden
|
Biden +13
|
Sanders
|
Sanders +8
|
Warren
|
Warren +6
|
Harris
|
Harris +5
|
Buttigieg
|
Buttigieg +2
|
THE
GOP RACE
Is
there a GOP race? Not really. There were two national polls in the last
month featuring Trump versus Bill Weld, and in one Trump led 90% to 5%, and the
other 84% to 16%. There has not been any
polling featuring Walsh or Sanford, but it is unlikely to show anything
dissimilar.
And,
for those of you wondering whether Weld might fare better in New Hampshire, a neighboring
state from his Massachusetts days, there was such a poll just last week, and
Trump commanded 88% of the New Hampshire GOP, versus 3% for Weld and 1% for
Walsh (Sanford was not included).
THE
FULL FIELD
Here
are the entire Democratic and Republican fields as of today.
Democratic Candidates
|
Age
|
Announce Date
|
Credentials
|
Latest national polls
(8/16 - 9/15)
|
|
Joe Biden
|
76
|
4/25/2019
|
Ex-VP and Ex-Senator, Delaware
|
28%
|
|
Bernie Sanders
|
77
|
2/19/2019
|
Senator, Vermont
|
17%
|
|
Elizabeth Warren
|
69
|
12/31/2018
|
Senator, Massachusetts
|
17%
|
|
Kamala Harris
|
54
|
1/18/2019
|
Senator, California
|
7%
|
|
Pete Buttigieg
|
36
|
1/22/2019
|
Mayor, South Bend, Indiana
|
5%
|
|
Beto O'Rourke
|
46
|
3/14/2019
|
Ex-Representative, Texas
|
3%
|
|
Andrew Yang
|
43
|
11/6/2017
|
Entrepreneur
|
3%
|
|
Cory Booker
|
49
|
2/1/2019
|
Senator, New Jersey
|
2%
|
|
Amy Klobuchar
|
58
|
2/10/2019
|
Senator, Minnesota
|
1%
|
|
Julian Castro
|
44
|
1/10/2019
|
Ex-Secretary, HUD
|
1%
|
|
Tulsi Gabbard
|
37
|
1/11/2019
|
Representative, Hawaii
|
1%
|
|
Steve Bullock
|
52
|
5/14/2019
|
Governor, Montana
|
1%
|
|
Marianne Williamson
|
66
|
1/28/2019
|
Self-help author
|
1%
|
|
Bill de Blasio
|
58
|
5/14/2019
|
Mayor, New York City
|
1%
|
|
Tom Steyer
|
62
|
7/9/2019
|
Billionaire hedge fund manager
|
1%
|
|
Michael Bennet
|
54
|
5/2/2019
|
Senator, Colorado
|
1%
|
|
John Delaney
|
55
|
7/28/2017
|
Representative, Maryland
|
0%
|
|
Tim Ryan
|
45
|
4/4/2019
|
Representative, Ohio
|
0%
|
|
Wayne Messam
|
44
|
3/28/2019
|
Mayor, Miramar, Florida
|
0%
|
|
Joe Sestak
|
67
|
6/23/2019
|
Ex-Representative, Pennsylvania
|
0%
|
|
Republican
Candidates
|
Age
|
Announce Date
|
Credentials
|
Latest national polls
(8/16 - 9/15)
|
|
Donald Trump
|
73
|
6/18/2019
|
President
|
87%
|
|
William Weld
|
74
|
4/15/2019
|
Ex-Governor, Massachusetts
|
11%
|
|
Joe Walsh
|
57
|
8/25/2019
|
Ex-Representative, Illinois
|
n/a
|
|
Mark Sanford
|
59
|
9/8/2019
|
Ex-Governor, Rep, South Carolina
|
n/a
|
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