THE
LEAD
The main headlines from the 2020 presidential campaign in the last month, since mid-July, are as follows:
·
Joe Biden remains at the head of the field,
nationally and in each of the four “early” states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada
and South Carolina), and his support levels have stabilized. Elizabeth Warren
continued her upward progress and pulled even with Bernie Sanders, while the
momentum of Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg stalled. None of the remaining candidates surged into
the “top tier” and one, John Hickenlooper, exited.
·
The second round of Democratic debates largely
involved sharp attacks on frontrunner Biden. The former VP was hardly a dynamo in his responses, but he did punch back aggressively, and the polls were
utterly unchanged pre- to post-debate.
· The Dayton and El Paso shootings thrust gun
control to the top of the national agenda, and provided an opportunity for Beto O’Rourke, who is from El Paso, to re-boot his flagging campaign.
· The economic slowdown in a
number of global markets, the inverted yield curve, and the China trade talk stalemate all signaled difficult economic times ahead, a huge threat to the primary rationale for a Trump
reelection.
THE
FIELD
This past month marked the first time the Democratic field has actually contracted. John Hickenlooper dropped out, narrowing the
field, if one may use that term with a straight face, from 24 to 23 candidates. Hickenlooper’s candidacy never took off,
despite his excellent record as Mayor of Denver and Governor of Colorado. There are 18 other candidates in the field whose candidacies
have also not “taken off” and their polling numbers remain in the 2% or less
range. But they persist, trudging on through Iowa’s 99 counties, one after
another. One wonders when the trickle of
departures (Eric Swalwell and Hickenlooper so far) will become a flood. There is simply no rationale at this point for
most of these candidacies; the pretenders have been on the stump for months now
and have ample evidence that they are simply not connecting.
At the
end of this article we have reprised our chart of the entire field, which still
looks like an eye chart, with the candidates ranked by the standing in the
national polls for the last month, from mid-July to mid-August. If you want to
amuse yourself, take a second to write down the names of as many candidates as you can
think of and see how close you come to naming the entire field.
THE
MONTH
The
last month was dominated by the July 30/31 debates, the second round that
featured 20 of the candidates. Steve Bullock replacing the departed Eric Swalwell
on the stage, joining the 19 holdovers.
This was the “Joe Versus the Volcano” debate, as Joe Biden took incoming
from, it seemed, almost every other candidate, each hoping to replicate the
“Kamala Bump” from the first debate, to drive their own fortunes and knock Uncle
Joe down closer to the pack.
But
Biden, while hardly compelling, was at least combative, and seemingly satisfied
his supporters. And his contenders
clearly overreached by attacking Biden for his Vice Presidential record, which
was tantamount to attacking the revered Barack Obama. This is truly an insane approach for any
Democrat, and the also-rans were heavily criticized for it. Biden has enough baggage from his Senate
years to pick apart, and it makes no sense to trash the popular former president, whose landmark presidency was generally successful in terms of economic recovery, diplomatic initiatives, and social progress.
When
all was said and done, the second round of debates had absolutely no impact on the race, which was a sure win for Biden.
On the
GOP side, former Governor Mark Sanford of North Carolina made some noise about
joining former Massachusetts Governor William Weld in officially challenging
Trump for the nomination, but neither candidacy has been or will be taken
seriously by the RNC and result in a face-to-face debate. That type of challenge can only be mounted by
a Mitt Romney or a John Kasich, and neither has uttered a peep, though both have
been occasionally critical of Trump.
The
national and international news continued to shape the campaign dynamics. The El Paso and Dayton shootings in
back-to-back days resulted in enough carnage to propel gun violence to the
front page. This is a weak issue for
Trump and the GOP, and with each shooting their go-to messaging on mental
health sounds even more off key. With Congress out
of session, Mitch McConnell was able to defer discussion on potential legislation until September, time enough to see if the issue loses steam. McConnell and Trump both paid lip service to consideration of universal background checks,
which has almost universal appeal among Americans of any party. Whether this goes any further remains to be
seen; you can be sure Trump will want something in return.
Beto
O’Rourke seized the spotlight in the aftermath of the El Paso tragedy, in his
hometown, and he skewered Trump and the GOP in no uncertain terms (and those
terms included some choice expletives).
Whether O’Rourke can translate this platform into renewed momentum for
his flagging campaign remains to be seen, but his rage provided the best
moments of what has so far been a desultory run.
Trump’s
campaign communications strategy may rest on his race-baiting and
fear-mongering, and his efforts to make "The Squad" the face of the “socialist”
Dems, but the backbone rationale for his reelection is his stewardship of the
economy. The U.S. economy's olid economic performance
may owe little to Trump (or be in spite of his volatility-inducing policies), but
the record is undeniable.
Having said that, the
drumbeat of a potential recession has never rung louder thus far in his presidency, with that pesky inverted yield curve that has foreshadowed a recession
each of the last five times the nasty shape has occurred.
Nothing
short of a Trump-triggered war would damage his campaign more than an ill-timed
economic downturn, and the next year will be crucial. Just check the history of George H.W. Bush,
who carried an 89% approval rating in 1991 in the wake of the successful
first Gulf War (per Gallup) only to see a flagging economy drive that number to 43% by November, 1992, and to defeat in his reelection campaign, to Bill Clinton.
THE
NUMBERS
Nationally,
Biden has fallen back to his pre-launch levels, but he has stabilized at the 30% preference level for the last two months.
Elizabeth Warren continues her steady rise and is now even with Bernie
Sanders in second place. Kamala Harris
failed to build on her first debate triumph, and Pete Buttigieg is holding at best. No one else is making a dent.
Average of National Polls
|
|||||||
Candidates
|
Jan 16 - Feb 15
|
Feb 16 - Mar 15
|
Mar 16 - Apr 15
|
Apr 16 - May 15
|
May 15 - Jun 15
|
Jun 16- Jul 15
|
Jul 16- Aug 15
|
Biden
|
29
|
29
|
31
|
37
|
34
|
30
|
30
|
Sanders
|
17
|
23
|
23
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
Warren
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
8
|
10
|
13
|
15
|
Harris
|
11
|
11
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
11
|
10
|
Buttigieg
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
O'Rourke
|
7
|
6
|
8
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
Booker
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
Yang
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
Klobuchar
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
Gabbard
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Castro
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
Delaney
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Bullock
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Williamson
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Steyer
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
1
|
DeBlasio
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Bennet
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
Gillibrand
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Inslee
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Ryan
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Messam
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Moulton
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Other/NA
|
20
|
13
|
10
|
9
|
16
|
14
|
9
|
At
this stage, however, the most important polls (and there are far fewer of them)
are in Iowa and, to a lesser extent, the other early states. In Iowa, there has been roughly one major
poll each month, which makes trends and conclusions harder to draw. Biden’s support is lower in Iowa than
nationally, which is almost certainly due to the tiny African-American
population in the state; that segment of the Democratic Party is extremely
loyal to Biden; while he is 30% nationally, he is ~50% among blacks.
But
Biden still leads in Iowa, and he has the support of roughly a quarter of the
electorate, and that figure has been stable.
Warren appears to be climbing in Iowa as well, while Bernie Sanders is
all over the map, and generally trending down.
Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg are well off their high polling marks
here and, again, no one else is making any kind of impact.
Iowa Polls
|
||||||
Candidates
|
Mar 16 - Apr 15 (2 polls)
|
DM Reg/CNN Jun 2-5
|
CBS/YG May 31-Jun 12
|
USA/Suff
Jun 28 - Jul 1
|
CBS 7/9-18
|
Monmouth
8/1-4
|
Biden
|
26
|
24
|
30
|
24
|
24
|
28
|
Warren
|
9
|
15
|
12
|
13
|
17
|
19
|
Harris
|
10
|
7
|
5
|
16
|
16
|
11
|
Sanders
|
20
|
16
|
22
|
9
|
19
|
9
|
Buttigieg
|
11
|
14
|
11
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
Klobuchar
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
4
|
3
|
Steyer
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
2
|
3
|
Yang
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
Gillibrand
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
Booker
|
6
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
Gabbard
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
Delaney
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
O'Rourke
|
5
|
2
|
4
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
Castro
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
Bennet
|
n/a
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
Bullock
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Inslee
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Hickenlooper
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Williamson
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Ryan
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Messam
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Moulton
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
DeBlasio
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
After
Iowa’s caucus next February will come New Hampshire’s primary, Nevada’s caucus
and the South Carolina primary – and then Super Tuesday, now with
California. Biden leads in all of these
states, ahead of both Sanders and Warren in their backyards in New Hampshire,
leading Sanders in Nevada, and crushing all comers in South Carolina.
Average of NH Polls
|
Nevada Polls
|
Average of S. Carolina Polls
|
||||||||
Candidates
|
Apr/ May/ Jun
|
Jul/ Aug
|
Candidates
|
Candidates
|
May/ Jun
|
Jul/ Aug
|
||||
Biden
|
26
|
22
|
Biden
|
36
|
29
|
Biden
|
43
|
37
|
||
Sanders
|
19
|
17
|
Sanders
|
13
|
23
|
Sanders
|
14
|
14
|
||
Warren
|
9
|
16
|
Warren
|
19
|
12
|
Harris
|
9
|
12
|
||
Harris
|
6
|
11
|
Harris
|
6
|
11
|
Warren
|
11
|
11
|
||
Buttigieg
|
11
|
9
|
Buttigieg
|
7
|
6
|
Buttigieg
|
8
|
4
|
||
Gabbard
|
1
|
2
|
O'Rourke
|
2
|
3
|
Booker
|
4
|
3
|
||
Yang
|
1
|
2
|
Yang
|
2
|
3
|
Steyer
|
n/a
|
1
|
||
Steyer
|
n/a
|
2
|
Booker
|
2
|
3
|
O'Rourke
|
3
|
1
|
||
Klobuchar
|
2
|
2
|
Castro
|
1
|
2
|
Delaney
|
0
|
1
|
||
O'Rourke
|
4
|
1
|
Klobuchar
|
1
|
1
|
Klobuchar
|
1
|
1
|
||
Booker
|
3
|
1
|
Steyer
|
n/a
|
1
|
Yang
|
2
|
1
|
||
Castro
|
0
|
1
|
Gabbard
|
0
|
1
|
|||||
Gillibrand
|
1
|
1
|
Ryan
|
0
|
1
|
|||||
WHERE
MIGHT THIS RACE GO?
The
last two times a large group of candidates faced off for a major party
nomination followed startlingly different results. In 2012, a field of eight vied for the GOP
nomination, in a topsy-turvy process that saw many contenders lead the field
(Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum) before Mitt Romney finally
secured the nomination. In 2016, on the
other hand, Donald Trump led almost wire-to-wire in taming a field of 16 GOP
contenders.
Which
kind of race will the Democrats emulate?
Thus
far, this race is similar to both in that the early frontrunner, Joe Biden, is
the establishment darling, much like Romney in 2012 and Jeb Bush in 2016. Both of them faltered, but Romney recovered
after the various flavors of the month were tasted and discarded, while Bush was
gone for good after Trump took control.
But
from there? It is way too early to
forecast an outcome. But we will offer
some sense of the future purely based on intuition, which could, of course, be completely wrong. This race seems poised to follow a
different pattern than either 2012 with its flavors or 2016 with Trump dominating. We could instead be very well be headed – ultimately -- for a one-on-one showdown between Joe Biden
and Elizabeth Warren, a classic confrontation between the centrist and
progressive wings of the party, more like Hillary versus Bernie in 2016. The key
assumptions that inform that intuition are:
·
Biden seems
to have solid support in the centrist wing of the party and there is no clear centrist alternative. While
hardly an ideal candidate, Biden has a core 30% support level that has survived his slow-footedness during the debates and gaffes
on the campaign trial. There is much to
like about Biden: his centrist
positioning; his deep experience; his authenticity and likeability; and his standing versus Trump, whom he routinely trounces in head-to-head
polls. And Biden faces no strong rival in the centrist lane; the only ones who truly embrace this “lane” are a rather
boring group of white men from the West, who show no sign of rising. Biden has the look of a survivor. And even if he falters a bit in lily white
Iowa and/or New Hampshire, his firewall is South Carolina, with its heavy
African-American presence, the core group supporting Biden.
·
Warren
seeming to be cruising by Sanders in the battle for the progressive wing in the
party. Warren
has displayed the full trifecta: she has been a superb debater, has inspired on
the campaign trail, and is a policy wonk’s wonk with her “I have a plan for
that” positioning. She has caught up to
Bernie in the polls and shows no sign of slowing up, while every day Bernie
looks more like yesterday’s news. Bernie
may have brought the progressive agenda to the fore in 2016, but Warren has the
beef that gives it substance.
·
No one
else will emerge. Both
Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg, the other two top tier contenders, are
showing signs of being a bit past their peak.
While each earned an early pop – Pete in getting on the map at all, the
only unknown to break through, and Kamala with her first debate TKO of Biden –
neither has continued their ascent and each has even fallen back just a
bit. None of the rest of the field have
popped even once. Only three of the
other candidates appear to be capable of a jump: O’Rourke given the visibility he received
from the El Paso shootings; Tom Steyer as a new candidate with his unlimited
resources; and Andrew Yang, who generates interest with his non-political
background and “$1,000 a month minimum guaranteed income” platform.
IS
THERE AN ALTERNATIVE?
Many
Dems are disappointed with this field, or even view it with alarm. These Democrats believe that each top tier candidate has an obvious flaw (or two): Biden is viewed by some as too old, past his prime, and/or too out
of touch to inspire massive turnout; Warren and Sanders are seen as too progressive;
Harris, a black woman, and Buttigieg, a gay man who is only 37, are feared to
be too different. If Biden cannot survive the marathon, then none of the others are viewed as acceptable to swing voters in Wisconsin,
Pennsylvania and Michigan, and other electoral paths that they might navigate (through Florida, North Carolina and
Arizona, for example) are unproven and risky.
Are
the Democrats willing to play out this hand and go with the winner, or is there
a pining for another candidate to emerge and truly electrify the field? If this same dynamic is still in place in
December – or if Biden fades – will some old Dem hands begin to make some
frantic calls?
There
are four, and only four, potential candidates would could enter the race as late as December and immediately become a factor. Four candidates with the visibility and
stature to offer a different, credible option.
Can
you name them? Think about it, and then
read on.
Here
they are:
·
Hillary
Clinton. You think it could
never happen? Guess again. Can’t you just see Hillary and Bill
hopscotching through the Midwest, yes, even Wisconsin this time, to rescue the
Dems from certain defeat? I’m sure there
is a detailed strategy sitting in John Podesta’s top drawer right now, and a
copy has been hand-delivered (not emailed, though) to Chappaqua.
·
Michelle
Obama. Ah, the ultimate silver
bullet! Michelle Obama is, hands down,
the most popular American alive, the epitome of dignity, graciousness, warmth –
the best of us personified. If Michelle
ever decided to run, the Dems would hand over the nomination in a
heartbeat. Might she ride in at the
eleventh hour? All signals point to “no
way: and she would personally rip up any memo outlining such a plan – but might
appeals to her based on the fate of her country change her mind?
·
Oprah
Winfrey. What more needs to
be said? Oprah has more charisma than
the entire Democratic field, and if business moxie is a qualifier, who has
more? And she has the big bucks to fund
a run.
·
Michael
Bloomberg. It’s always been
hard to envision Mike chowing down corn dogs in Iowa, or slogging from Keeme to Dixville Notch and back in January, just like any other candidate. But if he strode on the stage alone in
December, as a white knight, that we could see. And who better to straighten out the Democrats
than the ultimate fixer, a man who exudes competence and post-partisan
gravitas? Plus he too can bankroll his
whole run.
These scenarios
seem wildly unlikely, but these are desperate times, and Democrats are a
notoriously skittish bunch. If the Democrats never fall in love with anyone, and remain unconvinced that the top tier candidates can win, who knows what could happen.
WHO
CAN BEAT TRUMP?
Democrats
have indicated in polling that they are more likely to back the candidate they
think is most likely to beat Trump, rather than the one that best matches their
own views, by roughly a two-to-one margin. And thus the head-to-head polls of leading
Democrats versus Trump bear a close watch.
And
Joe Biden remains a clear winner here, and Bernie Sanders as well. Warren and Harris afre reasonably well, and
differ in the order of magnitude in comparing the two polls. Pete Buttigieg was included in only one of
the two polls and trailed Trump.
Survey
USA
|
FOX
News
|
|
Trump Versus:
|
Aug 1-5
|
Aug 13-15
|
Biden
|
Biden + 8
|
Biden + 12
|
Sanders
|
Sanders + 8
|
Sanders + 9
|
Warren
|
Warren + 2
|
Warren + 7
|
Harris
|
Harris + 1
|
Harris + 6
|
Buttigieg
|
Trump + 2
|
n/a
|
****************************
As
promised, here is the entire Democratic field as of today.
Candidates
|
Age
|
Announcement Date
|
Credentials
|
Latest national polls (Jul 16 to Aug 15)
|
|
Joe Biden
|
76
|
4/25/2019
|
Ex-VP and Ex-Senator, Delaware
|
30%
|
|
Bernie Sanders
|
77
|
2/19/2019
|
Senator, Vermont
|
16%
|
|
Elizabeth Warren
|
69
|
12/31/2018
|
Senator, Massachusetts
|
15%
|
|
Kamala Harris
|
54
|
1/18/2019
|
Senator, California
|
10%
|
|
Pete Buttigieg
|
36
|
1/22/2019
|
Mayor, South Bend, Indiana
|
5%
|
|
Beto O'Rourke
|
46
|
3/14/2019
|
Ex-Representative, Texas
|
3%
|
|
Cory Booker
|
49
|
2/1/2019
|
Senator, New Jersey
|
2%
|
|
Andrew Yang
|
43
|
11/6/2017
|
Entrepreneur
|
2%
|
|
Amy Klobuchar
|
58
|
2/10/2019
|
Senator, Minnesota
|
1%
|
|
Julian Castro
|
44
|
1/10/2019
|
Ex-Secretary, HUD
|
1%
|
|
Tulsi Gabbard
|
37
|
1/11/2019
|
Representative, Hawaii
|
1%
|
|
Steve Bullock
|
52
|
5/14/2019
|
Governor, Montana
|
1%
|
|
John Delaney
|
55
|
7/28/2017
|
Representative, Maryland
|
1%
|
|
Marianne Williamson
|
66
|
1/28/2019
|
Self-help author
|
1%
|
|
Bill de Blasio
|
58
|
5/14/2019
|
Mayor, New York City
|
1%
|
|
Tom Steyer
|
62
|
7/9/2019
|
Billionaire hedge fund manager
|
1%
|
|
Kirsten Gillibrand
|
51
|
1/15/2019
|
Senator, New York
|
0%
|
|
Michael Bennet
|
54
|
5/2/2019
|
Senator, Colorado
|
0%
|
|
Jay Inslee
|
67
|
3/1/2019
|
Governor, Washington
|
0%
|
|
Tim Ryan
|
45
|
4/4/2019
|
Representative, Ohio
|
0%
|
|
Wayne Messam
|
44
|
3/28/2019
|
Mayor, Miramar, Florida
|
0%
|
|
Seth Moulton
|
40
|
4/22/2019
|
Representative, Massachusetts
|
0%
|
|
Joe Sestak
|
67
|
6/23/2019
|
Ex-Representative, Pennsylvania
|
0%
|
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