The first Presidential debates of the 2020 campaign season will be held in Miami on Wednesday, June 26 and Thursday, June 27. Steve provides predictions about how the two nights will unfold.
The heat is on, baby. Don Johnson’s in a t-shirt and a
turquoise blazer, the orange groves are flush, and the Dems are here in ground
zero for global warming. It’s Miami, and it’s showtime! Enough of those
CNN town hall love fests, Iowa corn-dog photo-ops, and cute candidate Instagram
posts. We’re Democrats -- let’s get ready to grumble!
Everything changes this Wednesday and Thursday in Miami. That’s
when the Democratic race finally breaks beyond the Axios addicts and MSNBC main-liners.
That’s when we finally see the twenty leading candidates – ten each night -- together
on a stage before a live audience on a big-three television network.
For an event happening a full sixteen months before the 2020
election, these debates actually have startlingly high stakes. We expect record-breaking viewership for an
opening debate, as Democrats across the land are already at Def Con One in
their urgent search for a sure winner, the candidate who is most certain to soundly
thump Trump in November, 2020.
It is that urgency that makes this debate so important. You
can only make one first impression, and in a field of 23 candidates, it’s not
wise to assume you will even get the chance to make a second. For that matter,
it’s not a certainty that subsequent debates will be anywhere near the ratings bonanza
that the opening two promise to be. Sure, it’s just the first debate – well
over a year before election – but for some, it’s now or never. Some candidates are
going to get squeezed hard in this Miami Vise.
Today, we discuss which candidates have the most at
stake in Miami, and how these debates are likely to effect their campaigns.
One factor that will weigh heavily on the outcome of these
debates has already been decided: the Democratic National Committee has
assigned ten candidates to each of the two nights through a process that was
intended to ensure that the eight candidates faring best in the polls (that is,
over two percent) would be divided evenly between the two evenings. The outcome,
however, was that four of the five candidates who have had the most success to
date – Biden, Sanders, Harris, and Buttigieg – are all appearing on the same
stage on Thursday night. Of the five in
the top tier, only Elizabeth Warren will be on the stage on Wednesday night… which
is both good news and bad news for her. Sure, she’ll enjoy more focus as the
lone Wednesday star, but she will not be in the mix for what is likely to be
the sharper-elbowed Thursday night brawl of the top-tier.
In fact, the Wednesday night candidates are at a distinct
disadvantage. It’s likely that viewership could actually
be lower on the first night than on the second night, as all the news services
make much of the fact that all the bold-faced candidates are on the second night.
More problematic: all of these candidates want to be taking direct shots at front-runners
Biden and Sanders, but it’s very tough to do that if they are not even on the
stage to defend themselves.
So who wins and who loses? We’ll make some bold
predictions.
Does Biden go for the avuncular or the jugular?
The central drama of the two-night play is whether Joe
Biden will live up to the expectations he has raised in decisively seizing the
status of front-runner in the race. If Biden is judged to have had an exceptional
evening, you can bet that MSNBC’s prime time line-up will start doing segments
on potential running mates by the following Monday. Biden has big lead in the
polls, and if he does well on the debate stage, there will be a yearning to coronate, coalesce, unify, and get on with
the business of beating Trump. But the odds of that actually happening are slim.
Biden has a deep well of support in the party, but polling
data indicates that his early preference numbers are soft, and largely a
reflection of name awareness. Moreover, it will be the first time that many
voters have focused on Biden as a 76 year-old candidate, and his age will be
accentuated by the relative youngsters who will surround him on the stage. Chastened
by criticism of his touchy-feely style, Biden seemed to be trying to be more cautious,
but his historic penchant for self-destructive gaffes has already begun to
re-surface on the campaign trail.
This will be the essential drama of the debates, and it is
Biden’s Miami Vise. Will Biden attempt to play it safe and project the
aspect of his personality that is wise, measured, cautious, above the fray, and
presidential – and risk appearing to be low-T, saggy old Grandpa Faux Pas?
Or will he bound onto the stage, bursting with sass and wreaking ‘tood, all in
a calculated effort to show that he can still mix it up with the kids and has the
moxy to take it to the Insulter-in-Chief next fall?
Biden’s performance will be further magnified by the fact
that many of the candidates will be playing Biden Go Seek. It is the burden
of being the front-runner: any number of competitors will seek to elevate their
standing and stature by knocking Biden down. This means Biden will spend the evening
taking incoming from all sides and on virtually any topic… from his handling of
the Anita Hill hearings to his support of the 1994 Crime bill, from his vote in
favor of the Iraqi war to the plagiarism that ended his 1988 campaign, from his very
recent real-time triple axel flippity-floppity-flu on the Hyde amendment to his easy-to-misinterpret
comment about working well with segregationist Senate colleagues. If Joe Biden
were a ship, it would be named the Gaffe Spree.
To date, Biden has aimed his guns directly at Donald Trump,
thereby attempting to rise above the partisan bickering of the lesser known
candidates. But he will take withering assaults – if not from other candidates,
then certainly from the broadcast journalists who have drawers full of “gotcha”
questions ready for the big dog. Should he respond to these attacks, or attempt
to dismiss it all off with a vague Papal wave? Come Thursday night, we’ll find
out whether we are seeing Biden 1.0, 2.0, or some entirely new and buggy software
release.
We suspect that Biden – typically – will try to
split all the differences, attempting to project gravitas and thoughtful wisdom
to one question, and rakish, youthful charm and energetic charisma to the next.
One minute he will be projecting his salt-of-the-earth, gritty Pennsylvania
roots, and the next moment he will try to define his identity by stapling himself directly to Barack
Obama. One minute he will attempt to dismiss a direct attack with the back of his hand, the next minute
he will go full machismo by taking it right back at some unknown Congressman
who wanted to score debate points at his expense. This Sybil Strategy is
dangerous. Yes, Biden is familiar, but he is not necessarily known.
More than anything, he must project authenticity and consistency....a sense of being
completely comfortable in his own skin.
The existential risk of being the front runner is that
there is only one way to go… down. If Biden does not put forth a decisive show
of command and strength in these debates, it throws a bucket of cold water on
his momentum and inevitability. The reality is that cable networks get higher
ratings if there is an exciting race, so they will reflexively gravitate to the
shiny new objects that emerge over the two nights. The Democrats so crave a
candidate that can beat Donald Trump that they would have no qualms about moving
away from Biden if he is perceived to be damaged goods. It will open the doors
for other candidates to get further consideration.
Our bet: Biden will get merely passing grades for a solid,
workmanlike performance, but it is impossible to deliver a knock-out punch to
22 opponents. He will leave the door open for a fresh face to burst through.
And there are a host of fresh faces chomping at the bit.
Warren Factions: Elizabeth Ascending, Bernie Fading
Thursday night will also be a critically important night
for Bernie Sanders, largely because the mojo in his segment of the
party is swinging big time to Elizabeth Warren. Sanders and Warren are competing
for the most progressive and ideological wing of the party, and that town ain’t
big enough for the two of them. Both have a strong enough following to make it to
the primaries, but they will face an epic confrontation in New Hampshire, which
neighbors both candidates’ home states. At that point, one – or both – goes home.
It doesn’t appear that the shift in momentum to Warren is
because of anything that Bernie is doing wrong… it’s mostly that the Massachusetts
Senator has been on a roll. In a party that usually must chose between a policy
wonk and a charismatic, Elizabeth Warren is threading the needle, presenting
herself as both. She lights up her town
halls with fiery attacks on the elite, the entitled, and the establishment, and
yet her simple but effective mantra (“I have a plan for that!”) demonstrates
that she has the 3-D Excel spreadsheets to back up the soaring rhetoric.
Here’s what’s particularly problematic for Bernie:
Elizabeth Warren is the only A-list star in the Wednesday night debate. So
before Bernie even steps behind his podium on Thursday, Warren could well have
stoked her own momentum with a killer performance against nine dwarfs.
Bernie must also anticipate that he will be a target for
the journalists who pose the debate questions – and he can expect to be aggressively
questioned about whether his branding of “democratic socialism” is a gift to Donald
Trump. He will be put on the defensive, and
other candidates will pounce.
Talk about a Miami Vise: to Bernie’s left is a younger,
female, high-energy ascending rock star who has stolen his thunder as the party’s leftist policy wonk,
and to Bernie’s right is another craggy over-75-year-old white guy who is
crushing him in the early polls. Below
him are people like Eric Swalwell and Kristin Gillibrand, who are eager to
score a solid punch on a vulnerable front runner.
In the end, Bernie’s raspy, acerbic,
stick-it-to-the-establishment outrage was perfect as a lone voice in the wilderness
taking on the party’s anointed Hillary Clinton in 2016, but now it may just
sound like a cranky, angry, alienating, risky old fart to a party that only wants
to find a candidate who is certain to beat Donald Trump. Bernie has to figure
out how to navigate this Miami Vise, or he is going to limp out of Florida with
a hyooooooge problem.
Our bet: Miami is the beginning of the end for Bernie. If
Warren continues to close the polling gap with Sanders, she could be on a
trajectory to a spot on the national ticket.
The Not-So-Wild Card: Buttigieg May Steal the Show
People who are still pooh-poohing that a 37 year old gay
mayor of a tiny city could be running for President need to come out from under
their rock. Pete Buttigieg is not simply exceeding expectations, he is consistently
and dramatically outperforming his Democratic rivals. Wake up, Dems… Mayor Pete is the real deal. He is a category five phenomenon who has an uncanny ability to unfurl gracefully
constructed paragraphs in real time on any topic that is thrown his way. If he
wasn’t flustered on Rachel Maddow, Bill Maher, or Fox News, it’s hard to see
why it would be any different on a debate stage.
It’s a strange thing to say about a guy who is half the age
of both of the front-runners, but Buttigieg consistently comes across as the
most mature, measured, and thoughtful person in the entire field. Other candidates talk about being unifiers. Buttigieg unifies.
A 37-year-old gay mayor of a tiny town who decides to run
for President does not lack for chutzpah. Don’t be surprised if Buttigieg elegantly
but deliberately goes after Biden, goading the front-runner into a direct
exchange. Pete is not going to do this in a nasty or snarky way -- that would be off-brand -- but Buttigieg is
shrewd, and knows that the best place for him to take polling points is directly
from Biden. Mayor Pete would want nothing more than endless Youtube video loops
of a pitched exchange between him and Biden.
On the campaign trail, Mayor Pete has gone after Biden on
the age issue, which is definitely an edgy thing to do if you are a part
of your very own oppressed and much-aggrieved minority. To be clear: Buttigieg
is not saying Biden is not qualified because he is old, but because the “old normal”
no longer works. Buttigieg believes that 2020 is a generational election, and
that younger leadership is essential to see new solutions. But the message is
clear… are we really going to beat their 73 year old with our 76 year old? It
will be interesting to see how Biden handles it, because we can tell you right
now, Joe… that fastball is coming at you, hard and inside.
Many Americans will be seeing Buttigieg for the first time on
Thursday night, and you can fully expect that a large percentage will be as charmed by him as
those who have followed him closely on cable news. The bet here is that while
Biden’s performance is considered solid, Buttigieg is the next morning’s lead
story. And that is a problem for…
Kamala Harris: Time to Get Moving
The Miami Vise facing Kamala Harris is that she has yet to
live up to her apparent potential as a candidate. She is undoubtedly a powerful,
serious person of great substance, but of the top tier candidates, she has yet
to provide the clear, unique, and compelling rationale for her candidacy. She
has staying power, is well-funded, and will make it to the primaries. But there
are only two “new generation” candidates in the top tier… Harris and Buttigieg.
If – as we anticipate – he is perceived to be the exciting newcomer in the
debate, that is a serious blow to her desire to be the candidate of generational
change. Harris needs to have a break-out performance, but she has not demonstrated
her ability to accomplish this on the campaign trail or the cable news circuit.
Still, we're betting that she will come out ahead for the evening. The networks love rising stars, and Harris has the poise, camera presence, and gravitas to impress.
The Vulnerables
The conventional wisdom is that there is “no downside to
running for President.” That theory holds that a run is great for name recognition,
visibility, and can set you up for a cabinet post or even the VP nod.
However, it is hard to see how that theory is holding up for
any of Kirsten Gillibrand, Beto O’Rourke, Cory Booker, or Amy Klobuchar.
Start with Gillibrand, who set her campaign off on the
decidedly wrong foot by announcing her candidacy on The Late Show with
Stephen Colbert. Hey, we love Colbert, but this is not the season
for a Democrat to declare their desire to help America’s struggling and downtrodden
from the glitzy interview couch of an A-List zillionaire comedic celebrity. Barely
a blip in the polls, Gillibrand may emerge from this experience viewed as a far
less serious player in the party than if she’d just sat on the sidelines. Gillibrand
could well view these debates as do or die, and swing wildly for the fences
with big new policy promises or very sharp attacks on front runners. It is possible
that a candidate can salvage a flat-lining campaign with a single brilliant
moment, but we haven’t seen anything resembling that from Gillibrand so far.
Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar were also expected to be much
more formidable candidates than they have appeared to date. Neither has done
well in the polls, neither has developed a powerful message, and neither has
demonstrated an aptitude for fundraising.
Both will benefit from appearing on Wednesday night, and therefore not
fighting for camera time with Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, or Harris. You can
count on a Lester Holt or Rachel Maddow to smack these two in the nose by
asking them to explain their lackluster performance. The good news – and the
bad news -- is that they have each had plenty of time and reason to ponder how to answer this question.
Each needs a big night. Booker has far more capacity for the big charismatic
moment than Klobuchar, and Booker is far more willing to deliver a hard punch
at Biden than the reserved Minnesota Senator. Both could be gasping for oxygen
by mid-July.
It was not long ago that Beto O’Rourke was the great young
white hope, the Bobby Kennedy doppelgänger who almost took down Ted Cruz in
Texas. Then Pete Buttigieg showed up. O’Rourke has been wobbly since his campaign
launch, and is not landing solid punches with his policy statements. O’Rourke will benefit from the fact that he is
on Wednesday night, where he may well be the second most recognizable figure
after Elizabeth Warren. He also is well funded and therefore has staying power
that others may not. Expect a great deal of energy and passion from Beto, and we
suspect he will get a boost from a strong night.
Ain’t No Starting Us Now: Who is (fill in blank), and why is
that Person Running for President?
Below the two tiers noted above are what we might call the
total unknowns and the unloved knowns. The latter – Castro, de Blasio, Ryan,
Swalwell, Hickenlooper – have a glimmer of recognition because they hold serious
offices, spend way too much time on cable news programming, have a twin brother
that makes them appear more ubiquitous than they really are, or have a weird,
memorable name.
Bill de Blasio’s quixotic run for the White House has most
people simply perplexed, as it feels like the Second Avenue Subway has been
open for longer than he has been Mayor of New York. His mantra is that being
Mayor of NYC is the “second toughest job in the country,” which serves only to
raise the point that he should prove that he can do the second toughest
job before he runs for what is actually the toughest job.
If anyone in this group is able to significantly raise
their stature, our bet is on Swalwell. This guy is on MSNBC so often he must sleep
on a cot in their studio, and he is an appealing, youthful, telegenic presence.
He just came out for impeachment, and he could make that his issue. Swalwell’s
big advantage? He appears on Thursday night, with all the big names. He is
smart and a policy wonk, so he might see his golden opportunity as being known
as the guy who tripped up Biden.
And then there are a bunch of people you’ve never heard of: Yang,
Bennet, Inslee, Delaney, Gabbard, Williamson. Their presence on the debate
stage is the functional equivalent of a small advertiser placing a gigantic bet
by running a single ad on the Superbowl. These people know that they have one
chance and one chance only to elevate their non-existent stature. Look for
these people to be heaving improvised explosive rhetorical devices at the front-runners,
hoping that they score the direct hit that wounds a major candidate and ends up
being shared fifty million times on Instagram.
Just for sport, we’ll bet that from this group, it is spiritual
advisor and frequent Oprah guest Marianne Williamson gets the big “better than
expected” seal of approval from cable networks. Again, a key factor is simple
television presence: Williamson is a seasoned performer, and she – like Swalwell
-- is appearing on the target-rich Thursday stage that includes Biden, Sanders,
Harris, and Buttigieg.
In sum, here’s our scorecard:
Overall
Winner:
Pete Buttigieg
Those
who will be judged to have done very well and who will gain in the polls:
Warren
Harris
O’Rourke
Those who
will hold serve:
Biden
Booker
Castro
Those who will outperform expectations, but it won’t matter on the long run:
Swalwell
Williamson
Those who need to make an impact but won't.
Ryan
Inslee
Hickenlooper
Bennet
Delaney
Yang
Gabbard
Those
who will be declared “Losers:”
Gillibrand
Sanders
De
Blasio
Klobuchar
Cue
that theme song, and let’s see Sonny Crockett in shades. It's must see tv,
everybody. Game time, candidates. Take your podiums, and get ready for Miami
Vise.
Let's see who get squeezed.
Steve will be back Friday with his post-debate scorecard on the winners, the losers, and the gaffers.
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