The Democratic field is set and the first debates, the
first real event of the campaign, are just around the corner. Joe Biden is the frontrunner but the race is
tightening, with five “Tier 1” candidates out of the field of 23, and Biden is already displaying his vulnerabilities. It is a
long way to the Democratic Convention in Milwaukee on July 13, 2020.
THE FIELD
No one new entered the race in the past month, and it seems
highly likely that the field is set. We
have 23 Democrats (we exclude Mike Gravel from our count). The Democratic field now looks like this,
with the candidates ranked by the average of the national polls over the last
month.
Candidates
|
Age
|
Announcement Date
|
Credentials
|
Latest National Polls (May 16 to Jun 15)
|
|
Joe Biden
|
76
|
4/25/2019
|
Ex-VP, Ex-Senator, Delaware
|
34%
|
|
Bernie Sanders
|
77
|
2/19/2019
|
Senator, Vermont
|
17%
|
|
Elizabeth Warren
|
69
|
12/31/2018
|
Senator, Massachusetts
|
10%
|
|
Kamala Harris
|
54
|
1/18/2019
|
Senator, California
|
7%
|
|
Pete Buttigeig
|
36
|
1/22/2019
|
Mayor, South Bend, Indiana
|
7%
|
|
Beto O'Rourke
|
46
|
3/14/2019
|
Ex-Representative, Texas
|
4%
|
|
Cory Booker
|
49
|
2/1/2019
|
Senator, New Jersey
|
2%
|
|
Amy Klobuchar
|
58
|
2/10/2019
|
Senator, Minnesota
|
1%
|
|
Kirsten Gillibrand
|
51
|
1/15/2019
|
Senator, New York
|
1%
|
|
Julian Castro
|
44
|
1/10/2019
|
Ex-Secretary, HUD
|
1%
|
|
Andrew Yang
|
43
|
11/6/2017
|
Entrepreneur
|
1%
|
|
Michael Bennet
|
54
|
5/2/2019
|
Senator, Colorado
|
1%
|
|
Jay Inslee
|
67
|
3/1/2019
|
Governor, Washington
|
0%
|
|
John Hickenlooper
|
66
|
3/4/2019
|
Ex-Governor, Colorado
|
0%
|
|
Tulsi Gabbard
|
37
|
1/11/2019
|
Representative, Hawaii
|
0%
|
|
Tim Ryan
|
45
|
4/4/2019
|
Representative, Ohio
|
0%
|
|
John Delaney
|
55
|
7/28/2017
|
Representative, Maryland
|
0%
|
|
Marianne Williamson
|
66
|
1/28/2019
|
Self-help author
|
0%
|
|
Eric Swalwell
|
38
|
4/8/2019
|
Representative, California
|
0%
|
|
Wayne Messam
|
44
|
3/28/2019
|
Mayor, Miramar, Florida
|
0%
|
|
Seth Moulton
|
40
|
4/22/2019
|
Representative, Massachusetts
|
0%
|
|
Steve Bullock
|
52
|
5/14/2019
|
Governor, Montana
|
0%
|
|
Bill de Blasio
|
58
|
5/14/2019
|
Mayor, New York City
|
0%
|
Howard Schultz announced that he was “suspending” his
campaign (as an independent) due to back issues (he said he had had three back
surgeries over the past few months).
Look for him to completely disappear.
THE MONTH
Joe Biden continues to lead the field, albeit by (slightly)
narrowing margins, in a month (since our last 2020 Vision on May 15) headlined
by these developments:
Joe
Biden gets punched. Biden took
the first of many punches he will have to endure, with the initial blow more or
less self-inflicted. And this qualifies
as the rarely performed “triple flip flop,” the first known record of this
particular political gymnastic feat. Biden
has been a long-time supporter of the Hyde Amendment, which denies federal
funding for abortions. But he told a
representative of the ACLU on May 4 that he was in favor of rolling back the
Hyde Amendment: Flip One. But when this
video surfaced, his campaign team walked it back and reiterated his support of
Hyde:
Flip Two. And when the
blowback came on strong from his more progressive Democratic opponents, and he went
back to saying that he would seek to roll Hyde back: Flip Three! Paraphrasing John Kerry: “I was for it before
I was against it and then I was for it again before I was against it again.”
Biden has to decide whether he is going to toe the centrist
line (and hew to his win-the-Midwest-back strategy) or become a progressive
wannabee and, essentially, re-brand himself (at age 78). Sticking with Hyde certainly set him up for
criticism within the party, but it also would have doubled down on where he
stands within the party, firmly in the centrist “lane.” There are a whole host of issues that Biden
will have to navigate with care at some point, and this was a particularly
clumsy start on that journey.
It’s a
five-person race right now. Of
course the polls can change in the blink of a two-minute spiel in the upcoming
debates, but as of now, both in Iowa and nationally, there are only five
candidates with material support: Biden,
Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. We’ll get into the “whys” down below, as well
as why the others have been unable to gain traction or have lost whatever
traction they once had.
Iowa
race tightening. The
national polls are not where the action is….instead look at Iowa where the
candidates and the electorate are locked in the daily mating dance. National trends will follow Iowa, by and
large (and also New Hampshire as well, which differs little right now from
Iowa). And while Biden still leads in
Iowa, it looks more like a race there, with three other candidates (Sanders,
Warren and Buttigieg) all just about tied and within single digits of him (see
below).
Elizabeth
Warren coming on strong. Warren
is performing extremely well on the campaign trail, and with her authentic Oklahoma
lower middle class back story and her dazzling array (and command) of policy
positions, she is rising in the polls both in Iowa and nationally. She is now challenging Sanders for the lefty
wing of the party, and he is declining in Iowa, starting to feel a bit like yesterday’s
news.
Run-up
to the debates. Meanwhile,
at the other end of the field, Steve Bullock, Seth Moulton and Wayne Messam are
the odd men out of the first debates, although perhaps they are getting more
publicity for that than they have received as candidates. The other notable development was the rather
surprising revelation that the top five have been placed in lopsided fashion,
with Warren “alone” on the first night, and Biden, Bernie, Buttigieg and Harris
together on the second. How hard would
it have been to split them up?
THE NUMBERS
Biden is holding on to his lead both nationally and in Iowa,
for sure, though some more recent national polls may indicate some softness
there as well. As stated, Warren is on
the rise, as is Mayor Pete (in Iowa).
Harris is hanging in the top tier but treading water, at best. Sanders is dropping like a stone in Iowa.
Beto O’Rourke, Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar are
disappearing, squandering the name recognition and excitement they earned in
the 2018 election (Beto), the 2016 convention (Booker) and the Kavanaugh
hearings (Klobuchar and Booker). They
badly need powerful debate performances to get back in the dance before their
fundraising dries up.
As for the other 14, they are simply in the race by virtue
of an announcement and a qualifying resume.
They have not made a dent in the consciousness of America (or, more
troubling, in Iowa, where they have been practically living).
Tier
|
Candidates*
|
Iowa Polls
|
Average of National Polls
|
Tier
|
|||||
DM Reg/CNN Mar 3-6
|
Mar 16 - Apr 15 (2 polls)
|
DM Reg/CNN Jun 2-5
|
Mar 16 - Apr 15
|
Apr 16 - May 15
|
May 16 - Jun 15
|
||||
Tier 1
|
Biden
|
27
|
26
|
24
|
31
|
37
|
34
|
Tier 1
|
|
Sanders
|
25
|
20
|
16
|
23
|
18
|
17
|
|||
Warren
|
9
|
9
|
15
|
6
|
8
|
10
|
|||
Buttigeig
|
0
|
11
|
14
|
3
|
7
|
7
|
|||
Harris
|
7
|
10
|
7
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
|||
Tier 2
|
O'Rourke
|
5
|
5
|
2
|
8
|
5
|
4
|
Tier 2
|
|
Klobuchar
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
|||
Booker
|
3
|
6
|
1
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
|||
Castro
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
|||
Inslee
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|||
Gabbard
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|||
Delaney
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
|||
Yang
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
|||
Bennet
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
1
|
n/a
|
1
|
1
|
|||
Gillibrand
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
|||
Hickenlooper
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|||
Williamson
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|||
Ryan
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
n/a
|
1
|
0
|
|||
Swalwell
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
|||
Messam
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
|||
Moulton
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
n/a
|
0
|
0
|
|||
DeBlasio
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
|||
Bullock
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
0
|
|||
THE “WHYS”
There are reasons why the candidates are where they are
(and are not), and let’s look at each Tier 1 candidate in turn:
Joe
Biden. Biden has four
extremely powerful strengths going for him: 1) he is the best known candidate,
after 40 years in the public eye,
2) he is perhaps the most
experienced candidate ever, easily
topping a recent claimant of that title, Hillary Clinton, with his 36 years in
the Senate, chairmanship of both the powerful Judiciary and Foreign Relations
committees, two prior presidential runs and, of course, eight years as Vice President,
3) he has a simple, straight-line strategy for beating Trump, simply taking
back the lost Midwest states, and 4) he is absolutely clobbering Trump in
head-to-head polls, by an average of +12 points on average in two June polls. Beyond simply leading the Democratic polls, he
is well ahead of Warren in her home state of Massachusetts, Kamala in her home
state of California, Bernie in next-door New Hampshire and Mayor Pete in
next-door Iowa. Finally, Biden can point
to a “Silent Majority” of his own, with a Gallup poll showing that 54% of
Democrats want the party to move in a more moderate direction, versus 41%
wanting it to move further left.
Weaknesses? Oh yes,
he’s got a few. No one is truly
passionate about Joe Biden. He is the
comfortable old sweater, dependable, to be sure, but will the Indivisible
machine really go all out for him? The
youth vote? He has a track record as
long as he is old, primed for attack (Anita Hill, Iraq War vote, crime bill,
need I go on?) and he is remarkably out of touch with the activists who seem to
be driving the Democratic agenda. He is
a gaffe machine who has already shown that slip-ups are still par for the
course. He is a time-bomb waiting to
implode and his strategy – run against Trump and minimize appearances – is not
built to last, and that approach could be revised during (or after) the
debates.
Bernie
Sanders. Bernie was the one
person willing to take on Hillary Clinton, and he darn near pulled it off. His policies seemed so offbase for his time
in 2016, but actually he may have simply been ahead of the curve. His ideas, roundly dismissed in Democratic
leadership circles, are now at the core of the AOC agenda. He is a stirring speaker on the campaign
trail, blunt and energizing, and has pursued the goal of curing income
inequality and challenging the elites for decades. He is as authentic as they come.
But…but…but…has Bernie’s time come and gone? From a policy standpoint, Bernie is more bumper-sticker
than wonk, and Warren run rings around him in the details. His stubborn insistence on wearing the
“Democratic Socialist” label sounds more defensive these days, and you can
still imagine Trump having a field day with him in 2020, and relishing the gift
of that positioning.
Elizabeth
Warren. As stated, Warren
is killing it on the trail, going the unusual route of publishing detailed
policy papers on everything from an ultra-millionaire tax to free college
tuition to breaking up Big Tech and many, many others. And she is the real deal – she lives and
breathes this stuff, and will answer any question on any subject with professorial
expertise and passion. It’s a strange
analogy, but on the GOP side in 2012, I long felt that Rick Santorum was the
true blue conservative who just might emerge to challenge Mitt Romney, and sure
enough, he did – he was deeply imbued with conservative values and policy
positions and made the Herman Cains and Rick Perrys sound like the lightweights
they were (Santorum won 11 primaries, ultimately). Warren is like that. She embodies the aspirations of the left with
the heft of her positions (“I have a plan for that”), and is a fresher face
than Bernie (and, even at 69, far younger, too.)
Ah, the left. That is her issue. She, like Sanders, is running unabashedly for
the support of the progressive wing of the party, and that may not even be a
good strategy for the primaries (Iowa?
New Hampshire?), much less the general election (forgive college
debt…how will that play in Michigan?
Wisconsin? Pennsylvania?). Warren scares the heck out of the party
traditionalists who can’t bring themselves to believe a true progressive can
win. When has one ever won? Certainly JFK, Carter, Obama and Clinton were
centrists, and LBJ was a special circumstance on many, many fronts.
Pete
Buttigieg. Mayor Pete is the darling
of 2020 thus far, at 37 less than half the age of Biden and Sanders, a generation-and-a-half
younger. He has scored with an incredible
something-for-everyone gay-military-Rhodes Scholar trifecta of a resume, and a
thoughtful, articulate, personable, low-key-yet-charismatic demeanor on the
trail. Like Warren, he speaks in whole paragraphs,
and seems to make perfect sense whenever he opens his mouth, with a sly wit
that echoes JFK and Obama. Everyone
likes him, and he is getting even better on the trail day by day. He keeps rising in polls in Iowa, which means
that the more people see him, the better the word of mouth. Pete is the only “no name” candidate to have
made the jump into the first tier.
But do people really take Pete seriously as a presidential
candidate? He’s a small town Mayor, he’s
37 and he’s gay. In all respects he is
utterly unique as a presidential candidate (Mayor Wayne Messam aside). Is he really in it to score a high profile
Cabinet post, since he would have a difficult path to gaining higher office in his
home of, conservative Indiana? Can Pete
convince America that he is ready, and is America really ready for him?
Kamala
Harris. Kamala Harris has
not hit her stride as a candidate yet, but, to borrow a sports phrase, she has
a “high ceiling” – she is smart, accomplished, well-spoken and telegenic, with
a great backstory, and Democrats seem to want
her to succeed. If she can find her
groove on the campaign trail – or in the debates – she could move up
considerably.
But…she is “Kama-Kama-Kama-Kama-Kama chameleon,” and she
truly does come and go. She has
performed unevenly, great at one Town Hall, terrible the next. She has been vague on the issues (“we should
have a conversation about that”) and tough to pin down, walking the fine line with her prosecutor background, between the moderates of both parties, to whom it appeals (who she needs for the general election), and the progressives among the Dems, who dislike law and order types who they believe have put
too many minorities in jail.
Booker,
Castro, Gillibrand, Klobuchar and O”Rourke. These were the other so-called “names” in the
race, and they have simply failed to connect on the larger stage. In the case of Booker, Castro and O’Rourke,
they all seem to be more flash than substance, and suffer from appearing to
lack both authenticity as well as clear positions on the issues. Klobuchar may suffer, instead, from too much authenticity, as she truly is
too centrist for the progressives and, shall we say, quite undynamic. She can put people to sleep when they want to
be inspired, and the charges of her mistreating her staff, whether earned or
not, dogged her in the early part of the campaign. Gillibrand simply never got started out of
the gate, perhaps because New Yorkers are not terribly popular in Iowa. (Memo to Bill de Blasio: New York City mayors, even less so.)
The
rest. We are waiting for someone out of this group
to follow Buttigieg to prime time, but the eclectic mix of earnest but dull western
governors (Hickenlooper, Inslee and Bullock), unknown representatives (Delaney,
Gabbard, Moulton, Ryan and Swalwell) and unconventional types (Williamson,
Yang, Messam) are hard to take seriously.
They will all get about five minutes of air time next week and what they
do with it may seal their fate. Look for
them to swing for the fences and either breakthrough (unlikely) or look
extremely silly (get ready for a potential viral moment from this group). If I had to pick a few who just might make
strong impressions, I would go with Yang and his universal basic income big idea,
or Montana’s Bullock, the blue guv in a red state.
WHO CAN BEAT TRUMP?
Democrats have indicated in polling that they are more likely
to back the candidate they think is most likely to beat Trump, rather than the
one that best matches their own views, by roughly a 2/1 margin. This is one of Biden’s key calling cards and
he is stronger than ever, +12 in two polls (on average) in June. But Sanders does surprisingly well, also, versus
Trump, and the others in the big five are gaining on this measure.
Dem
Vs Trump
|
||
May
|
June
|
|
Biden
|
+10
|
+12
|
Sanders
|
+8
|
+9
|
Warren
|
+3
|
+5
|
Harris
|
+1
|
+4
|
Buttigieg
|
+1
|
+3
|
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