The first few weeks of Joe Biden’s long-awaited 2020
campaign were always going to be utterly crucial to his prospects. Out of the spotlight for some time, would the
76-year-old look too frail or aged to potential voters? Long a poor fundraiser, with neither big-time
Wall Street connections nor a small money Main Street online donor network,
would he disappoint with his initial numbers?
And would he resume his persona as the “Gaffing Groper” on the campaign
trail, master of 20th century retail politics but woefully out of
touch with 21st century sensibilities?
No, no and no. Joe
Biden has passed the early tests of his candidacy – demonstrating vitality,
clout and adaptability -- and has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the
Democratic sweepstakes, dominating a swelling field that now numbers 23, and
may still be growing.
THE FIELD
In the last month, there were yet another five entrants
into the record-shattering field.
Montana Governor Steve Bullock, Massachusetts
Representative Seth Moulton, Colorado Senator Michael Bennet and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio
all joined the race, along with, Biden, of course. It has long been said that there is little
downside to running for president. It’s
a relatively risk free way to raise name recognition for future runs, increase
the odds for a career enhancer such as a cabinet post, a possible path to the
Vice Presidency and, who knows, the longshot chance of the nomination
itself. All you risk is a little wear
and tear and a viral gaffe that haunts you forever. What politician thinks they will utterly
fail?
So open the door on a campaign with neither an incumbent
nor a natural heir, and in comes a herd.
And we still may not be
done. Stacey Abrams,
who narrowly lost the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial race, is still mulling a run
(and she recently announced she would not run for the Senate in 2020, a blow to
those who thought she just might flip a badly needed seat). And former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz
is considering an independent run.
The Democratic field now looks like this, with the
candidates ranked by the average of the national polls over the last month, led
by the two septuagenarians in the field.
Candidates
|
Age
|
Announcement Date
|
Credentials
|
|
Joe Biden
|
76
|
4/25/2019
|
Former VP, Former Senator, Delaware
|
|
Bernie Sanders
|
77
|
2/19/2019
|
Senator, Vermont
|
|
Kamala Harris
|
54
|
1/18/2019
|
Senator, California
|
|
Elizabeth Warren
|
69
|
12/31/2018
|
Senator, Massachusetts
|
|
Pete Buttigieg
|
36
|
1/22/2019
|
Mayor, South Bend, Indiana
|
|
Beto O'Rourke
|
46
|
3/14/2019
|
Former Representative, Texas
|
|
Cory Booker
|
49
|
2/1/2019
|
Senator, New Jersey
|
|
Amy Klobuchar
|
58
|
2/10/2019
|
Senator, Minnesota
|
|
Jay Inslee
|
67
|
3/1/2019
|
Governor, Washington
|
|
Kirsten Gillibrand
|
51
|
1/15/2019
|
Senator, New York
|
|
John Hickenlooper
|
66
|
3/4/2019
|
Former Governor, Colorado
|
|
Julian Castro
|
44
|
1/10/2019
|
Former Secretary, HUD
|
|
Andrew Yang
|
43
|
11/6/2017
|
Entrepreneur
|
|
Tulsi Gabbard
|
37
|
1/11/2019
|
Representative, Hawaii
|
|
Tim Ryan
|
45
|
4/4/2019
|
Representative, Ohio
|
|
Michael Bennet
|
54
|
5/2/2019
|
Senator, Colorado
|
|
John Delaney
|
55
|
7/28/2017
|
Representative, Maryland
|
|
Marianne Williamson
|
66
|
1/28/2019
|
Self-help author
|
|
Eric Swalwell
|
38
|
4/8/2019
|
Representative, California
|
|
Wayne Messam
|
44
|
3/28/2019
|
Mayor, Miramar, Florida
|
|
Seth Moulton
|
40
|
4/22/2019
|
Representative, Massachusetts
|
|
Steve Bullock
|
52
|
5/14/2019
|
Governor, Montana
|
|
Bill de Blasio
|
58
|
5/14/2019
|
Mayor, New York City
|
(We’ve decided to exclude Mike Gravel from the “official”
BTRTN count. While perfectly
well-credentialed as a former Senator from Alaska, Gravel is now 88 years old
and in our view is running a bit of an quixotic campaign that does not have
winning the nomination as a goal, no matter what he claims.)
THE MONTH
The month was dominated by the entrance of Biden into the
race on April 25, and his rather flawless performance since. The prelude to the announcement was far less
auspicious, featuring Biden’s unsuccessful “clear the air” sort-of-apology to
Anita Hill, who did not go along with the script, instead stating that she
“cannot be satisfied” with the apology, and could not be until there was “real
change and real accountability and real purpose.”
However, once launched, the race dynamics changed
quickly. Unlike any of the other
candidates, Biden made it clear he was running against Trump, invoking
Charlottesville and ignoring the Democratic field. Suddenly Democrats were reminded that while
progressives have been the loudest voices within the party of late, clamoring
for change, the dominant voting bloc remains more mainstream centrists. And practical geographic considerations also
were revived, with the Biden boomlet reminding the party that the easiest way to
dump Trump would be to simply reclaim the lost Midwest, where Biden is
strongest.
Biden has done well in his first weeks of campaigning, with
only one gaffe (confusing British Prime Minister Theresa May with Margaret
Thatcher) and showing, ahem, a less physical style of retail politics. He also raised $6.3 million in the newest
barometer of political might – the immediate 24 hours after the launch –
surpassing Beto O’Rourke for the record on this metric. And his polling numbers have been strong, as
we will describe below.
The other candidates more or less disappeared in the Biden
shadow. Spring sensation Pete Buttigieg
continued to impress, but his upward trajectory was halted. Beto O’Rourke attempted to address the
critique of the vagueness of his policies with a – hold your breath - $5
trillion environmental proposal. Kamala
Harris continued to deliver mixed performances, looking uncomfortable and
equivocal in a CNN Town Hall (her answer to every policy question seemed to be
“we should have a conversation about that”) but tough and solid in her
prosecution of Attorney General Bill Barr on Capitol Hill. Elizabeth Warren continued to unveil bold
policy proposals, most recently to address the opioid crisis and forgive the
college debt of 42 million Americans.
And Bernie Sanders did a splendid job in a FOX News Town Hall,
confounding his inquisitors by drawing, at times, enthusiastic cheers from the
audience.
All of it made for excellent policy chatter in the wonk
community and grist for close campaign followers, but not one bit of it made a
dent where it counts, in the polls, in the face of the Biden blitz.
THE NUMBERS
The easiest way to see the impact of the Biden launch is to
look at the national polling numbers before and after his April 25
announcement. (There has been no new
polling since that date in Iowa, the best barometer of all.) As you can see, Biden jumped a full +10
percentage points, and is now supported by a commanding 40% of Democrats
voters.
Pre/Post Biden Launch
|
|||
National Polls
|
April
1-24
|
April
25 - May 15
|
Change
|
Biden
|
30
|
40
|
10
|
Sanders
|
23
|
17
|
-6
|
Harris
|
9
|
8
|
-1
|
Buttigieg
|
7
|
7
|
0
|
O'Rourke
|
7
|
4
|
-3
|
Warren
|
7
|
8
|
2
|
Booker
|
4
|
2
|
-1
|
Klobuchar
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
Other/NA
|
13
|
13
|
0
|
It may surprise you to see that Biden’s ideological
counterpart, lefty Bernie Sanders, took the biggest hit, losing -6 points. You might have thought Biden might have hurt
his fellow centrists more. But this is
still largely a name recognition game at this point, and polling to date has
consistently shown that Biden and Bernie are the #2 choice of the others’
supporters. Voters are not as close to
the policy positions of the pair (or anyone) as you might think. And Biden now leads Bernie by +23 points, up
from +7.
Beto O’Rourke also took a hit, perhaps less about Biden
than his own troubles on the trail, as he has failed to translate his Texas-size
charisma into a national following. The
other candidates basically held serve, though Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar slipped
ever closer to the irrelevant pack.
As mentioned, there have been no recent polls in Iowa (the
pre-Biden-launch April polls had Biden up 23/18 on average over Sanders, with
Buttigieg in third with 12%), but there have been post-Biden-launch May polls
in New Hampshire and South Carolina, the number two and three stops on the 2020
caucus/primary trail. Biden holds a
healthy lead in both of them. His
dominance is South Carolina is particularly noteworthy because it demonstrates
his strength among the Africa-American community there (who comprise about
two-thirds of voting Democrats; Iowa and New Hampshire are lily white). This in turn reveals how the schedule plays
well for Biden, as he can use South Carolina to seal the deal (if he wins in
Iowa and NH), establish momentum (if he splits), or turn things around (if he
loses both).
May Polls
|
NH
|
SC
|
Biden
|
36
|
46
|
Sanders
|
18
|
15
|
Buttigieg
|
9
|
8
|
Warren
|
8
|
8
|
Harris
|
6
|
10
|
Booker
|
2
|
4
|
Klobuchar
|
2
|
1
|
O'Rourke
|
2
|
2
|
Yang
|
1
|
2
|
Other/NA
|
16
|
4
|
Biden’s strong start sets up a far different dynamic than was
anticipated. Essentially it is Biden’s
nomination until he stumbles, and he will continue to run against Trump until (and
unless) he has to address a real challenge.
Trump is helping carry Biden’s water considerably, tweeting (or
re-tweeting) about Biden in a frenzy after the launch, clearly reflecting of
the Trumpian view that Biden is the only real threat he faces.
What the rest of the field needs is a catalyst to shake
Biden off his perch, and there are three ways this could happen: 1) the gaffe, 2) the revelation, or 3) the
debates. For Biden, the next gaffe is
always just around the corner (though what is a gaffe in Trump’s America?). The “revelation” is unlikely for a man who
has been in the public eye for four decades; what else could be unearthed?
As for the debates, they are fast approaching. The first two debates will be carried on June
25 and 26 by NBA, MSNBC and Telemundo, from Miami, the two nights featuring a
split field. The criterion for inclusion
in the debates consists of national polling levels and donor requirements, and
most of the field should be eligible, though Wayne Messam, Marianne Williamson
and Seth Moulton may be on the bubble.
The debates can expose Biden, churning up weak spots in his
past (Anita Hill, the crime bill, etc.), exposing his less progressive stance
on issues, putting the spotlight on his propensity for gaffes and his age gap
with most of his next-generation rivals.
Biden does not have much to gain in the debates and plenty to lose. Look for him to try to rise above the field,
tout his experience, reinforce his ties to Barack Obama and not engage with the
others on the rostrum.
WHO CAN BEAT TRUMP?
Democrats have indicated in polling that they are more likely
to back the candidate they think is most likely to beat Trump, rather than the
one that best matches their own views, by roughly a 2/1 margin.
And the candidate they think has the best chance of beating
Donald Trump is…Joe Biden. A recent
Quinnipiac poll shows that 57% of Democrats believe just that, well ahead of
Sanders (12%), with none of the rest exceeding 4%. Even 38% of “very liberal” Democrats believe
that Biden is the best chance to beat Trump, over Sanders (12%).
And head-to-head polling bears this belief out, at this
stage. Two brand new head-to-head polls
by Emerson and Quinnipiac show Biden crushing Trump by 10 points. However, they also show Sanders doing quite
well versus Trump, +8, which is a change from a month ago. The other four candidates included in the
surveys are within the margin of error.
May Polls
|
Dem
Vs Trump
|
Biden
|
+10
|
Sanders
|
+8
|
Warren
|
+3
|
Buttigieg
|
+1
|
Harris
|
+1
|
O'Rourke
|
+1
|
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