This
will be our final BTRTN midterms’ “snapshot” before we are back Monday night
with our race-by-race predictions.
There
are 50 races that will define America for at least the next two years, races
that will be decided well into the wee hours on election night, and possibly
for days after. We have listed them at
the end of this article. Regardless of
your political persuasion, if you have a dollar to give, a minute to make a
call, or an hour to canvass a neighborhood, these are the 50 races that you
should be targeting. If the Democrats
win most of those races, they will win the House, keep the Senate close, and
hold the majority of state houses across the land. More importantly, they will have succeeded in
exploding the Trump myth that he can win any election he puts his mind to, send
him a clear signal that he is extremely vulnerable in 2020, put a stop to
Trump-inspired legislation -- and kick-start a slew of subpoena-stoked House
investigations.
If
today were Election Day, the point estimate would look like this, with the Dems
taking the House handily, picking up a slew of state houses, and holding serve
in the Senate.
House
|
Senate
|
Governors
|
|
%
chance D takeover
|
76%
|
8%
|
n/a
|
D/R
Split
|
230/205
|
49/51
|
26/24
|
Dem
gain
|
D + 36
|
No change
|
D + 10
|
We
have them winning, as of now, 34 of the 50 races we have highlighted, which
comprise:
· Thirty-three “toss-up” races in the House; the Dems need to win a mere 11
of them to seize control, and as of this moment – which could change by the
time we make our final predictions on Monday night – we have the Democrats
ahead in 23 of them; thus the odds of a Dem house takeover are very high, at
76%, as of now
· Six “toss-up” races in the Senate, plus Texas and Tennessee, which are
leaning to the GOP as of now, but last minute cash and canvassing could still turn
them into all-nighters; winning one of them may represent the only
pathway to the Dems’ long-shot chances of taking the Senate
· Nine “toss-up” gubernatorial races; if the Democrats win six of them,
they will pick up an amazing 10 state houses and achieve a nationwide majority
BTRTN FINAL SNAPSHOT: 11/2/2018
|
|||||||
HOUSE
|
SENATE
|
GOVERNOR
|
|||||
DEM TOTAL
|
230
|
DEM TOTAL
|
49
|
DEM TOTAL
|
26
|
||
Dem Solid
|
185
|
Dem Holdover
|
23
|
Dem Holdover
|
7
|
||
Dem Likely
|
17
|
Dem Solid
|
21
|
Dem Solid
|
7
|
||
Dem Lean
|
5
|
Dem Lean
|
0
|
Dem Lean
|
6
|
||
Dem Toss-up
|
23
|
Dem Toss-up
|
5
|
Dem Toss-up
|
6
|
||
GOP Toss-up
|
10
|
GOP Toss-up
|
1
|
GOP Toss-up
|
3
|
||
GOP Lean
|
9
|
GOP Lean
|
2
|
GOP Lean
|
3
|
||
GOP Likely
|
24
|
GOP Solid
|
6
|
GOP Solid
|
11
|
||
GOP Solid
|
162
|
GOP Holdover
|
42
|
GOP Holdover
|
7
|
||
GOP TOTAL
|
205
|
GOP TOTAL
|
51
|
GOP TOTAL
|
24
|
||
We
will keep our analysis brief so we (and, hopefully, you) can get back on those
phones!
THE HOUSE
The
GOP has more or less given up on the House.
The Democrats held a nearly 2:1 spending margin heading into the final
week of the campaign; voter “enthusiasm” continues to favor the Dems; and the
biggest weapon of all, Donald Trump, was nowhere to be found on the campaign
trail in competitive House districts.
Trump’s final week itinerary included Florida, Missouri, West Virginia,
Montana, Georgia, Tennessee – all states with close Senate and/or Governor
races, but only a smattering of key House races.
Having
said that, there are an awful lot of close races out there, enough to give the
GOP a slim hope, a 1 in 4 shot by our models.
At this juncture, we see the Dems picking up in the neighborhood of +36
seats when all is said and done.
This
would amount to a Trump repudiation by any standard and worthy of a “wave”
designation. Such a GOP loss would be in
line with that experienced by most recent first-term presidents in their midterms,
including Reagan in 1982 (-26), Clinton in 1994 (-54) and Obama in 2010
(-63). (Both Bush 41 and 43 managed to
avoid such a fate due to surges in their personal popularity in the aftermath
of the Gulf War and 9/11, respectively).
THE SENATE
While
the Dems’ odds of taking the House are impressive, the situation in the Senate
is quite the reverse. The Dems need to
pull off a political miracle that would outstrip Trump’s triumph in 2016. By our calculations, they have a less than a 10%
chance of taking the Senate, roughly the same odds the Dodgers faced last week
when they trailed the Red Sox by three games to one in the World Series. And we know how that turned out.
Once
Democrat Doug Jones beat Roy Moore in the Alabama Senate special election last
December, the Dems had one path to winning the Senate: holding all of their seats (including 10 in
states Donald Trump carried in 2016) and picking off the only two GOP seats
that were seen as truly vulnerable, Arizona and Nevada.
That
plan might have had a chance of working out had it not been for North
Dakota. Incumbent Democratic Senator
Heidi Heitkamp’s vote against Brett Kavanaugh may been courageous, but it also
may have cost her her seat. And given
that North Dakota now seems out of reach, the Dems still need to defend their
other seats and now would have to take one in Texas or Tennessee. But in both of those races, the GOP is
stubbornly holding on to a 6-7 point lead.
So
keep an eye on the eight toss-up races, noting that the Dems need to win seven
of those eight to take back the Senate.
Those eight include four seats they currently hold, Indiana, Missouri, Montana and Florida and four that the GOP
holds, Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee and Texas. It would take a miracle to win seven of those
eight races.
But
even if winning is difficult, minimizing the losses is crucial – every seat
matters. The Democrats would do well to maintain their current complement
of 49 seats. That margin makes life very
difficult for the GOP. Losing the House
gives the GOP only one area of total influence, that of confirming judges (the
House has no role in that process), and a one-seat margin is certainly too thin
for comfort. Even with the death of John
McCain and the retirements of Jeff Flake and Bob Corker, there are still cats
to herd in the GOP, notably the omnipresent moderates Susan Collins and Lisa
Murkowski, plus perhaps Ben Sasse of Nebraska, who routinely threatens to leave
the GOP. This
is why Trump is campaigning in Senate tossup states – he wants the breathing
room that netting 1-2 more seats would give him in pushing those judges
through.
GUBERNATORIAL RACES
The
races for state house control are overall looking very positive for the Dems,
with the likely range being a pickup of +4 to + 13 governorships, with the mode
at +10. The +10 would give the Dems 26 governors,
more than half, to the GOP’s 24. And
thus when the 2020 census is taken, the Democrats will be far better positioned
to win the ensuing redistricting wars and come out ahead on
gerrymandering. Watch out for those
nine toss-up races noted below.
THE 50 RACES THAT WILL DEFINE AMERICA
Here
they are…pick a few to work on this weekend.
HOUSE SNAPSHOT
|
|||
State
|
Dist.
|
Latest Polls
|
BTRTN Rating 11/2
|
Florida
|
27
|
D +
7
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
Illinois
|
6
|
D +
5
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
California
|
10
|
D +
5
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
California
|
45
|
D +
5
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
New York
|
19
|
D +
5
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
Michigan
|
11
|
D +
3
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
Pennsylvania
|
16
|
D +
4
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
Iowa
|
3
|
D +
2
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
Minnesota
|
1
|
D +
2
|
D
TU
|
Pennsylvania
|
1
|
D +
2
|
D
TU
|
Washington
|
8
|
D +
1
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
New York
|
22
|
D +
1
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
California
|
39
|
D +
1
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
Maine
|
2
|
D +
1
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
New Jersey
|
3
|
D +
1
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
Virginia
|
7
|
D +
1
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
Florida
|
26
|
D +
1
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
Virginia
|
5
|
D +
1
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
Florida
|
15
|
Tie
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
Texas
|
7
|
R +
1
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
Kansas
|
2
|
R +
1
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
Kentucky
|
6
|
R +
2
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
California
|
48
|
R +
2
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
Alaska
|
1
|
D +
1
|
R
TU
|
New Mexico
|
2
|
Tie
|
R
TU
|
Michigan
|
8
|
R +
1
|
R
TU
|
North Carolina
|
9
|
R +
1
|
R
TU
|
Texas
|
32
|
R +
1
|
R
TU
|
Pennsylvania
|
10
|
R +
1
|
R
TU
|
North Carolina
|
13
|
R +
3
|
R
TU
|
Virginia
|
2
|
R +
3
|
R
TU
|
Montana
|
1
|
R +
3
|
R
TU
|
California
|
25
|
R +
4
|
R
TU
|
SENATE SNAPSHOT
|
||||||
State
|
Inc. Party
|
Incumbent
|
Democrat
|
GOP
|
Recent Polls Avg
|
BTRTN Rating 11/2
|
Dem Seats not up for reelection in
2018 (23)
|
||||||
Solid Dem (21): CA, CT, DE, HA,
MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MN (sp), NJ, NM, NY, OH, PA, RI, VA, VT, WA, WV, WI
|
||||||
MONT
|
D
|
Tester
|
Tester
|
Rosendale
|
D +
3
|
D
TU
|
FLA
|
D
|
Nelson
|
Nelson
|
Scott
|
D +
3
|
D
TU
|
ARIZ
|
R
|
Flake (ret.)
|
Sinema
|
McSally
|
D +
1
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
IND
|
D
|
Donnelley
|
Donnelley
|
Braun
|
D +
1
|
D
TU
|
NEV
|
R
|
Heller
|
Rosen
|
Heller
|
D +
1
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
MO
|
D
|
McCaskill
|
McCaskill
|
Hawley
|
R +
2
|
R
TU (Flip)
|
TEXAS
|
R
|
Cruz
|
O'Rourke
|
Cruz
|
R +
6
|
R
Lean
|
TENN
|
R
|
Corker (ret.)
|
Bredesen
|
Blackburn
|
R +
7
|
R
Lean
|
Solid GOP (6): MISS, MISS (SP), NDAK (flip), NE, UT, WY
|
||||||
GOP seats not up for reelection in
2018: (42)
|
||||||
GOVERNOR SNAPSHOT
|
||||||
State
|
Inc. Party
|
Incumbent
|
Democrat
|
GOP
|
Recent Polls Avg
|
BTRTN Rating
|
Dem Seats not up for reelection in
2018 (11)
|
||||||
Solid Dem (7): CAL, HAW, ILL (Flip), NY, MICH (Flip), MINN, PA
|
||||||
Lean Dem (6): COL, CT, ME, NMEX, OR, RI
|
||||||
FLA
|
R
|
Scott
|
Gillum
|
DeSantis
|
D +
4
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
IOWA
|
R
|
Reynolds
|
Hubbell
|
Reynolds
|
D +
4
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
OHIO
|
R
|
Kasich
|
Cordray
|
DeWine
|
D +
3
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
WISC
|
R
|
Walker
|
Evers
|
Walker
|
D +
2
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
SD
|
R
|
Daugaard
|
Sutton
|
Noem
|
D +
1
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
KAN
|
R
|
Colyer
|
Kelly
|
Kobach
|
D +
1
|
D
TU (Flip)
|
GA
|
R
|
Deal
|
Abrams
|
Kemp
|
R +
1
|
R
TU
|
NEV
|
R
|
Sandoval
|
Sisolak
|
Laxalt
|
R +
2
|
R
TU
|
ALASKA
|
I
|
Walker*
|
Begish
|
Dunleavy
|
R +
1
|
R
TU
|
Solid GOP (11): MD, SC, TN, VT,
ID, ALA, ARK, MASS, NEB, TEX, WYO
|
||||||
Lean GOP (3): ARI, NH, OKL
|
||||||
GOP seats not up for reelection in
2018: (7)
|
||||||
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