Tom with a look at the entire Democratic field
who may vie for the nomination in 2020.
Our countdown clock
has been reset from Election Day 2018 to the same in 2020, and it now stands, as
we publish this piece, at 704 days to go.
In that time, the Democrats will go through an absolutely gigantic
winnowing process, starting with perhaps the largest field ever, almost surely
larger than the 17 Republicans who faced off in 2015.
(Note: The 2018 midterms are not quite over
yet. There are still two House races, New
York 27 and California 21, that have yet to be called. We’ll be back when these races are over with
our full rundown of the midterms.
Suffice to say for now: BTRTN did
very well in our forecasts.)
Traditionally,
candidates make their launch announcements in the spring, roughly 18 months
before Election Day, with many visits to Iowa and New Hampshire behind them, a
team on board, and a few high money types in tow. But all that will be accelerated in
2019. With so many potentials afoot, few
will have the luxury of waiting, and the battle for political talent (e.g., operatives
to run campaigns, bundlers to raise money) is well underway. There has, indeed, already been one
announcement, by Representative John Delaney of Maryland, who doubtless acted
early precisely to get an extra mention in articles like these. And we suspect that more announcements will
come – many more – right after the New Year.
And we’ll make another
not-so-bold prediction: the Democratic
nominee for President in 2020 will be one of the 55 names on the list below
(and the Vice Presidential nominee as well).
But which one?
One way to approach this
challenge is to categorize the contenders based on a “theory” of the race. That is, what “type” of candidate should the
Democrats put forward as the “best” way to be rid of Donald Trump? We’ll go through the various theories and
list the potential candidates who meet the standard, and then we’ll come back
with our own answer to the question.
Theory 1: “Go with our known quantities, this is no time
for a rookie”
The theory here is
that Donald Trump is dangerous and the Dems must meet his formidable
campaigning skills with a big name who has played at this level for a long time. A well-known, experienced candidate who can shred Trump on policy, if
not pizazz, and will not wilt under the bright lights.
There's a short list
here, and it includes Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, for sure, and we would throw in
Elizabeth Warren (even though she has never run for President), as well as John
Kerry.
And there are two
other names that fit the “Big Names” category and don’t be surprised by
either: Hillary Clinton and Michelle
Obama. There are rumblings from
Clinton-land, and there is no more popular person in America than Obama.
Here they are,
with a thumbnail “pro” and “con" for each.
"Big Name"
|
Position
|
Age
|
Claim to Fame
|
Achilles Heel
|
Joe Biden
|
ex-VP, Sen
|
76
|
He can win back the Midwest
|
Two-time loser, will be 79 in ‘21
|
Hillary Clinton
|
ex-SoS, Sen
|
71
|
Longest resume on the list
|
Do I really need to cite them?
|
John Kerry
|
ex-SoS, Sen
|
74
|
Policy chops, global stature
|
2004 loser, dull as a fencepost
|
Michelle Obama
|
ex-First Lady
|
54
|
Clobbers Trump in polls
|
No actual experience at all
|
Bernie Sanders
|
Sen (Vt)
|
77
|
Galvanized the left in 2016
|
He’ll be 80! And he's a
socialist!
|
Elizabeth Warren
|
Sen (Mass)
|
69
|
Lefty darling with a message
|
(Only) ties Trump in polls now
|
Theory 2: “Enough with the Biden/Pelosi generation, we
need a new face”
These Democrats are
dying to be swept away by a new face, with an electric message. Move aside, Caucasian septuagenarians, give
me Kamala or Beto! The strong preference is for a woman or a minority; to make
this list as a white male, you have to be under 50, perhaps under 40.
There are plenty of contenders
in this category apart from those “one-name” rising stars, Kamala Harris and
Beto O’Rourke. Cory Booker, Kirsten
Gillibrand and Amy Klobuchar come to mind as perhaps the highest profile
Senators; Gina Raimondo is the top Governor in this pool; and a few U.S.
Representatives are sparking some interest, such as Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii and
Joe Kennedy III of Massachusetts. Longer
shots from more exotic backgrounds include Afghan War vet (and Rhodes Scholar)
Pete Buttigieg (the Mayor of South Bend, Indiana); ex-Planned Parenthood CEO
Cecile Richards; and ex-Acting Attorney General Sally Yates (the one who Trump
fired in the early days of his administration).
"New Breed"
|
Position
|
Age
|
Claim to Fame
|
Achilles Heel
|
Cory Booker
|
Sen (NJ)
|
49
|
Dem Conv speech, Kav hearings
|
Too cloying by half?
|
Pete Buttigeig
|
Mayor (S.B.)
|
36
|
Ex-Marine mayor of South Bend, Ind.
|
A virtual unknown
|
Julian Castro
|
Ex-Mayor,HUD
|
44
|
National profile; push Texas blue?
|
More realistically a VP
|
Tulsi Gabbard
|
U.S. Rep (Haw)
|
37
|
Iraq War vet; first Hindu Rep
|
Meeting with Assad
|
Eric Garcetti
|
Mayor (LA)
|
47
|
Strong on tech/green issues
|
A virtual unknown
|
Kirsten Gillibrand
|
Sen (NY)
|
51
|
Big win on "don't ask, don't tell"
|
Backlash on Franken
|
Kamala Harris
|
Sen (CA)
|
54
|
Political natural; strong resume
|
From Cal, not the Midwest
|
Maggie Hassan
|
Sen (NH)
|
60
|
Beat Kelly Ayotte in NH
|
A virtual unknown
|
Eric Holder
|
ex-AG
|
67
|
Very close to Obama
|
Has a long list of enemies
|
Jason Kander
|
ex-SoS of Mo.
|
37
|
Self-confidence? Lightest resume
|
A virtual unknown
|
Joe Kennedy III
|
US Rep (Mass)
|
38
|
Blood relative of JFK/RFK!
|
Like others <40, very young
|
Amy Klobuchar
|
Sen (MN)
|
58
|
Red-county wins in Senate race
|
What's not to like?
|
Seth Moulton
|
US Rep (Mass)
|
40
|
3 Harvard degrees; 4 Iraq tours
|
Pelosi challenge misplay?
|
Chris Murphy
|
Sen (CT)
|
45
|
Gun control leader post-Newtown
|
A virtual unknown
|
Beto O'Rourke
|
US Rep (TX)
|
46
|
Almost won Texas, RFK lookalike!
|
Probably running for VP
|
Deval Patrick
|
ex-Gov (Mass)
|
62
|
Axelrod wants him
|
Very quiet since 2015
|
Gina Raimondo
|
Gov (RI)
|
47
|
Moderate with RI revival story
|
A virtual unknown
|
Cecile Richards
|
ex-CEO PP
|
61
|
National profile and charismatic
|
Most polarizing on the list
|
Tim Ryan
|
US Rep (OH)
|
45
|
Midwest rep with “yoga plan”
|
A virtual unknown
|
Brian Schatz
|
Sen (HW)
|
46
|
Climate change leader
|
A virtual unknown
|
Eric Swalwell
|
US Rep (CA)
|
38
|
Grew up in Iowa
|
A virtual unknown
|
Sally Yates
|
ex-Acting AG
|
58
|
Ultimate cred: Trump fired her!
|
Light resume
|
Andrew Yang
|
Vent. for Amer.
|
43
|
Unique social entrepreneur
|
A virtual unknown
|
Theory 3: “Play it safe, we need a seasoned, boring,
non-controversial white male.”
The Dems playing in
this bucket look at it from a completely different perspective, arguing that
the best way to win is to offer up someone who contrasts sharply with Trump,
yet is completely non-threatening.
Someone who will restore our prestige, say all the right things, and
bring the country together. Please, no
women or minorities to stir up the far right.
Give me a central-casting-worthy 20th-century-era President…a.k.a.,
a square-jawed white male over 50.
There are (still)
many, many men who fill this slot, basically almost every past or present
Governor or Senator. The ideal pick
might be from the Midwest or a red state (or both), someone like Sherrod Brown,
Steve Bullock or Roy Cooper, but a garden variety moderate (say, Mark Warner)
or liberal (how about Jeff Merkley) might work just as well. If you want a little pizazz from this
colorless group, just a tad, try good old boy Mitch Landrieu, the tainted Al
Franken or CNN darling Adam Schiff. If
Tim Kaine had performed better as Hillary’s sidekick in 2016, he might have
filled the slot and even been the presumptive favorite.
"Conventional"
|
Position
|
Age
|
Claim to Fame
|
Achilles Heel
|
Jerry Brown
|
ex-Gov (CA)
|
80
|
Was a maverick before McCain
|
He'll be 83!
|
Sherrod Brown
|
Sen (OH)
|
66
|
Winner in the Midwest
|
A virtual unknown
|
Steve Bullock
|
Gov (MON)
|
52
|
Strong red state guv
|
A virtual unknown
|
Lincoln Chafee
|
ex-Gov/Sen (RI)
|
65
|
Has been GOP, Ind and Dem
|
Big zero in 2016 Prez bid
|
Roy Cooper
|
Gov (NC)
|
61
|
Beat "Bathroom Bill" McCrory
|
A virtual unknown
|
Andrew Cuomo
|
Gov (NY)
|
60
|
Big name centrist; top speaker
|
Gruff; has had image issues
|
Bill DeBlasio
|
Mayor (NYC)
|
57
|
Highly rated NYC populist mayor
|
Very close to Hillary
|
John Delaney
|
U.S. Rep (MD)
|
55
|
1st to declare; in Iowa every day
|
A complete unknown
|
Al Franken
|
ex-Sen (MN)
|
67
|
Charismatic; rebounding from...
|
... #MeToo resignation
|
J. Hickenlooper
|
Gov (CO)
|
66
|
Strong Denver mayor/Col guv
|
A virtual unknown
|
Jay Inslee
|
Gov (WA)
|
67
|
Battled Trump travel on ban
|
A virtual unknown
|
Tim Kaine
|
Sen (VA)
|
60
|
Dem VP candidate in 2016 but…
|
…outperformed by Pence
|
Mitch Landrieu
|
ex-Mayor (NO)
|
58
|
Prog Mayor rebuilt Big Easy
|
A virtual unknown
|
Terry McAuliffe
|
ex-Gov (VA)
|
61
|
Legendary money raiser
|
Way close to Hillary and Bill
|
Jeff Merkley
|
Sen (OR)
|
62
|
Leader in family separation fight
|
A virtual unknown
|
Martin O'Malley
|
ex-Gov (MD)
|
55
|
Acquitted himself well in 2016
|
Just another contender in ‘20
|
Adam Schiff
|
U.S. Rep (CA)
|
58
|
High profile on House Intel Com
|
Really after a Cabinet slot?
|
Mark Warner
|
Sen (VA)
|
63
|
Moderate option from key state
|
A virtual unknown
|
Theory #4: “Enough of these politicians, we need our own
Trump.”
Didn’t Trump prove
that politicians are poison? America
doesn’t care about political resumes or appearing “presidential,” we need to
counter with a better version of Trump, someone who is richer, more successful,
more competent, but still unconventional and colorful.
The two big names here
are Oprah Winfrey and Michael Bloomberg (who, of course, has solid political
chops from his long run as mayor of New York).
Tom Steyer has spent his way into the mix here (full disclosure – he’s a
classmate of mine from business school).
America’s best known CEO’s make this list as well, Bill Gates, Howard
Schultz, Bob Iger and Jamie Dimon. Mark
Cuban is the most “Trump-esque” as a personality (that is, he’s a jerk). Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg would
have been on this list once, but I think they have incinerated their chances at
this point.
"Our Trump"
|
Position
|
Age
|
Claim to Fame
|
Achilles Heel
|
Michael Bloomberg
|
ex-Mayor (NYC)
|
76
|
Strong cross-party credentials
|
The lefty-driven primaries
|
Mark Cuban
|
Entrepreneur
|
60
|
Truly "our Trump"; a nut
|
Truly "our Trump"; a nut
|
Jamie Dimon
|
CEO, JPMorgCh
|
62
|
Global financial guru
|
Ugh, who likes bankers?
|
Bill Gates
|
Microsoft founder
|
63
|
He certainly has the money
|
Dull; money can't buy love
|
Bob Iger
|
CEO, Disney
|
67
|
Top CEO of an iconic brand
|
Leaving Disney? Now?
|
Howard Schultz
|
CEO, Starbucks
|
65
|
Ex-CEO of iconic brand
|
Too focused on nat’l debt
|
Tom Steyer
|
Business
|
61
|
Big on impeachment
|
Unknown beyond ads
|
Oprah Winfrey
|
She's Oprah!
|
64
|
She's Oprah! Beats Trump in polls.
|
Polarizing and very liberal
|
BTRTN View
There are other ways to categorize the field, and other theories,
most notably across the centrist/leftist perspective.
But, the fact is, we at BTRTN reject all of these theories. Presidential nominations simply do not work
that way. No one has ever said, and
certainly not since we left smoke-filled rooms behind in 1972, “we need an X”
and then systematically set about finding “X.”
It will take the long, long campaign to identify the candidate who, as
President Obama recently said, “speaks directly to the times.” It all gets down
to the individual – not the check boxes.
So let’s wait until we see who actually throw their hat in the
ring, and then watch them perform. This
large field will, of course, winnow down, and often in unpredictable ways. The last three Democratic winners, Jimmy
Carter, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, were virtual unknowns in the years
before their inaugurations, and each entered the fray as the longest of long
shots. Carter was a one-term ex-Governor
of Georgia, Clinton was the long-winded blowhard who bombed in 37 painfully
long minutes at the 1988 Democratic convention, and Obama was 30+ points behind
the all-but-anointed Hillary Clinton when he entered in 2007.
These candidates knew their time was ripe, and, indeed, spoke to
the times. Carter was the high-integrity
antidote to the slime-filled, Watergate era Washington, D.C., running against
Gerry Ford and his Nixon pardon. Clinton
was the empathetic pragmatist who countered George H. W. Bush’s tone-deaf
response to the human pain of economic decline.
And Obama was truly the symbol of hope and change as George W. Bush’s
failing presidency hurtled to a close with the Giant Recession underway.
We don’t know now what “the times” ahead will demand. It’s easy to say that the Democrats need a
positive message, and someone who can stand up to Trump. But what will
the environment be in the fall of 2019 and winter and spring of 2020? Will we be in recession? At war?
What will the Mueller report bring? Will there be a constitutional crisis over
Democratic demands in House committee investigations? Will 2019 bring a dramatic increase in environmentally-driven
disasters? Who knows?
Our purpose here was simply to define the field as it looks
now. The answers to these questions (and
others) will dictate “the times” to which these candidates will attempt to
speak. Let’s see first who stands up to
the mic – and then see who grabs it.
