BTRTN Gubernatorial Election Snapshot: Good News for the Dems?

Tom on the races to control state houses.

The races for Governor are not as high profile as those of the houses of Congress, perhaps because a majority does not constitute “control” in the same sense.  But governors, of course, play crucial roles in governing our country, for many reasons.   With our current federal government intent on championing “states’ rights,” power is flowing to those states, and governors work with state legislatures to use that power in many ways.  Just for starters, in the area of health care alone, states have created laws that limit access to abortion, have rejected federal funds for Medicaid expansion and created myriad other obstacles to the implementation of the Affordable Care Act.

And, of course, the governors and their legislatures control the district reapportionment process, and the GOP electoral successes in this decade owe significantly to the gerrymandering frenzy undertaken in the wake of the 2010 census.   The next census is just around the corner, in 2020, and so the races for the state houses are of monumental significance this time around.

Finally, today’s governors are future presidential candidates, and because of their executive experience and presumed distance from Washington, D.C., they come to the process with inherent advantages.  It is no wonder that governors have been more successful than Senators in reaching the Oval Office; in recent times, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush held the office in their state.  Since Richard Nixon left office 44 years ago, only Barack Obama among his successors came from the Senate.

And what a fulsome gubernatorial election cycle this is, with fully 36 of our 50 governorships on the line in November.   The GOP dominates state houses now, with 33 governors, while the Democrats have only 16, with one Independent (in Alaska).   So, the Dems have opportunities they don’t have with the Senate playing field – of the 36 seats on the ballot, 26 of them are held by the GOP.

As of this snapshot – not a prediction, but if the elections were held today – the Democrats are in line to flip a net of 9 seats, to even the state house battle to 25/25, which would be a huge gain.   Keep in mind, though, that 16 of these races are currently “in play,” and half of those are “toss-ups” with the polling in the current margin of error.  The GOP could still come out with far fewer losses.  But as of now, the Dems are doing well, and they even have a path to take a majority – which has no legislative meaning per se but would be quite a statement heading into the 2020 census – and presidential election.

BTRTN GOVERNOR SNAPSHOT			BTRTN GOVERNOR SNAPSHOT
	10/18/18			Current	Projected	Change
DEM TOTAL	25		Dem	16	25	9
Dem Holdover	7		GOP	33	25	-8
Dem Solid	7		Ind	1	0	-1
Dem Lean	6
Dem Toss-up	5
GOP Toss-up	3
GOP Lean	2
GOP Solid	13
GOP Holdover	7
GOP TOTAL	25

The chart below lays it all out on a state-by-state basis; the races are ranked in order of the strength of the Democrat on the ballot.   As you can see, the nine states that the Dems are on track to flip are Illinois, Michigan, Maine, New Mexico, Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio and South Dakota.  In three other races, the GOP is holding on to the narrowest of leads: Nevada, Georgia and Kansas.  The GOP is not on track to flip any state house, though it could take control of Alaska by defeating Independent Bill Walker.  The Dems have decent leads (5 to 10 points) in four of their seats that are in play:  Rhode Island, Colorado, Connecticut and Oregon.

GOVERNOR SNAPSHOT
State	Inc. Party	Incumbent	Democrat	GOP	Recent Polls Avg	BTRTN Rating
NY	D	Cuomo	Cuomo	Molinaro		D Solid
CAL	D	Brown	Newsom	Cox		D/I Solid
HAW	D	Ige	Ige	Tupola		D Solid
PENN	D	Wolf	Wolf	Wagner		D Solid
ILL	R	Rauner	Pritzker	Rauner		D Solid
MINN	D	Dayton	Walz	Johnson		D Solid
MICH	R	Snyder	Whitmer	Scheutte		D Solid
RI	D	Raimando	Raimando	Fung	D + 9	D Lean
MAINE	R	LePage	Mills	Moody	D + 8	D Lean
NMEX	R	Martinez	Grisham	Pearce	D + 7	D Lean
COL	D	Hickenlooper	Polis	Stapleton	D + 7	D Lean
CONN	D	Molloy	Lamont	Stefanowski	D + 7	D Lean
OR	D	Brown	Brown	Beuhler	D + 5	D Lean
FLA	R	Scott	Gillum	DeSantis	D + 4	D TU
IOWA	R	Reynolds	Hubbell	Reynolds	D + 4	D TU
WISC	R	Walker	Evers	Walker	D + 4	D TU
OHIO	R	Kasich	Cordray	DeWine	D + 3	D TU
SD	R	Daugaard	Sutton	Noem	D + 3	D TU
NEV	R	Sandoval	Sisolak	Laxalt	R + 1	R TU
GA	R	Deal	Abrams	Kemp	R + 1	R TU
KAN	R	Colyer	Kelly	Kobach	R + 1	R TU
OKL	R	Fallin	Edmondson	Stitt	R + 5	R Lean
NH	R	Sununu	Kelly	Sununu	R + 5	R Lean
ALASKA	I	Walker*	Begish	Dunleavy		R Solid
ARI	R	Ducey	Garcia	Ducey		R Solid
MARY	R	Hogan	Jealous	Hogan		R Solid
SC	R	McMaster	Smith	McMaster		R Solid
TENN	R	Haslam	Dean	Lee		R Solid
VER	R	Scott	Hallquist	Scott		R Solid
IDA	R	Otter	Jordan	Little		R Solid
ALAB	R	Ivey	Maddox	Ivey		R Solid
ARK	R	Hutchinson	Henderson	Hutchinson		R Solid
MASS	R	Baker	Gonzalez	Baker		R Solid
NEB	R	Ricketts	Krist	Ricketts		R Solid
TEX	R	Abbott	Valdez	Abbott		R Solid
WYO	R	Mead	Throne	Mead		R Solid
*  Walker is also on the ballot as a Independent