Tom with
BTRTN’s latest on the race for control of Congress.
There are 46 days left until the mid-terms. The tickets are set for every race, and the
bell has rung for the traditional Labor Day sprint until November 6.
These have been an enormously consequential last 30 days in
American politics, and not a good one for Donald Trump and the GOP. We have witnessed the Manafort and Cohen
convictions, the Bob Woodward book and the anonymous New York Times op-ed, and
now the uproar over the Brett Kavanaugh nomination to the Supreme Court. Each has rocketed some horrific aspect of the
Trump presidency – the corruption, dysfunction, the assault on women – to daily
headline status. An already wretched
electoral environment for the GOP in the mid-terms has unarguably gotten worse.
And yet, there has been little material change in the
prospects for November outcomes. Since
our last “snapshot” a month ago, the headline remains the same: the Democrats have no more than an outside
chance to take over the Senate. But their
odds of taking over the House remain very high – and have risen in the last month -- and continue
to be extremely imposing at this point.
Our proprietary BTRTN models, which calculate the odds of
Democratic takeovers of each branch of Congress, peg the likelihood of each as
follows:
House
|
Senate
|
82%
|
12%
|
In the last month, the House odds of a Dem takeover have
jumped up from 76% to 82%, while the Senate odds, despite the toxicity around
the Trump Administration, have dropped from 16% to 12%. This reflects, among other factors, roughly
40 new polls in the contested Senate elections.
Remember: this is
just a “snapshot” – what would happen if the elections were held today. This is not
a “forecast” or a “prediction.” Not yet.
SENATE
We have changed three race ratings in the last month, and
none represent a change from one party to the other. Arizona and
Montana appear to be tightening up a bit,
while Joe Manchin is solidifying his lead in West
Virginia.
BTRTN RATING CHANGES
|
||
8/20/18
|
9/20/18
|
|
Arizona
|
D
Lean
|
D
Toss Up
|
Montana
|
D
Lean
|
D
Toss Up
|
W. Virginia
|
D
Lean
|
D
Solid
|
Despite the low odds, if Election Day were today, the Dems
would actually pick up a seat, bringing the Senate to the tightest of possible
splits, 50/50, with Vice President Mike Pence able to break partisan ties in
the GOP’s favor.
BTRTN SENATE RACK-UP
|
||
8/20/18
|
9/20/18
|
|
DEM TOTAL
|
50
|
50
|
Dem Holdover
|
23
|
23
|
Dem Solid
|
19
|
20
|
Dem Lean
|
4
|
1
|
Dem Toss-up
|
4
|
6
|
GOP Toss-up
|
2
|
2
|
GOP Lean
|
2
|
2
|
GOP Solid
|
4
|
4
|
GOP Holdover
|
42
|
42
|
GOP TOTAL
|
50
|
50
|
We have the Democrats flipping three seats as of now: Nevada, Arizona
and Tennessee. But the GOP would hold on to the “majority”
by flipping two of their own: Florida and North Dakota. Those five races are all basically
“toss-ups,” along with Missouri, where we
have incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill ahead by a nose (in large part due to
the presence of a Libertarian candidate in the race); Indiana,
where Joe Donnelley is slightly ahead; and Montana,
where Jon Tester maintains a tight lead.
These eight “toss-ups” essentially define the range of
possible outcomes. If the Democrats sweep them, they would emerge with a 52-48
majority, a prospect that leaves Mitch McConnell cold with fear. But if it goes the other way, and the GOP
takes them all, the GOP actually would build their razor thin majority to
56-44, which would eliminate the power that moderates Susan Collins and Lisa
Murkowsky hold today. This would be an
outright disaster for the Dems.
The odds of a Dem takeover are so low – 12% -- precisely
because of the difficulty of winning so many toss-ups. Odds makers would say that the eight races
should split 4-4; flip a coin eight times and that’s the most likely outcome. That would leave the GOP with a 52-48 majority, +1 seat versus now. For the Dems to take over they need that coin
to come up heads seven out of eight times.
Now this is not exactly like flipping a coin. There is some possibility of that all races
could move one way or the other in unison due to some macro factor that
reflects well or poorly on one party.
Peace in North Korea on the one hand, or a movement of Russian troops
into a neighboring country on the other.
Regardless of candidate, events like these can move the undecideds as
one, or incent die-hards to go to the polls in outrage, or stay home.
In addition to those eight “toss-up” races, there are three
more we classify as “leans” (for a total of 11 truly competitive races): Texas, where
Beto O’Rourke is threatening to end Ted Cruz’s political future, and the two
special elections in Minnesota and Mississippi. These
races, ultimately, could go either way as well, though the incumbents are all
ahead. And we are watching several other
races that, theoretically, could become competitive, including West Virginia and New
Jersey.
Here is the race-by-race rundown. The 11 races that we consider to be truly
competitive are in the middle of the chart, between the two purple lines. Of course, these designations could change in
the coming weeks and more (or fewer) races might be deemed “competitive.”
SENATE SNAPSHOT
|
||||||||
State
|
Inc. Party
|
Incumbent
|
Democrat
|
GOP
|
2012 Margin
|
2016 Pres Margin
|
Recent Polls Avg
|
BTRTN Rating
|
CAL
|
D
|
Feinstein
|
Feinstein
|
de Leon (D)
|
D + 24
|
D + 30
|
D
Solid
|
|
VER
|
I
|
Sanders
|
Sanders
|
Paige
|
D + 46
|
D + 26
|
D/I Solid
|
|
NY
|
D
|
Gillebrand
|
Gillebrand
|
Farley
|
D + 45
|
D + 23
|
D
Solid
|
|
HAW
|
D
|
Hirono
|
Hirono
|
Curtis
|
D + 26
|
D + 32
|
D
Solid
|
|
MARY
|
D
|
Cardin
|
Cardin
|
Campbell
|
D + 28
|
D + 26
|
D
Solid
|
|
RI
|
D
|
Whitehouse
|
Whitehouse
|
Flanders
|
D + 30
|
D + 16
|
D
Solid
|
|
DEL
|
D
|
Carper
|
Carper
|
Arlett
|
D + 37
|
D + 11
|
D
Solid
|
|
MASS
|
D
|
Warren
|
Warren
|
Diehl
|
D + 8
|
D + 27
|
D
Solid
|
|
WASH
|
D
|
Cantwell
|
Cantwell
|
Hutchison
|
D + 20
|
D + 16
|
D
Solid
|
|
NJ
|
D
|
Menendez
|
Menendez
|
Hugin
|
D + 18
|
D + 14
|
D
Solid
|
|
MN
|
D
|
Klobuchar
|
Klobuchar
|
Newberger
|
D + 34
|
D + 2
|
D
Solid
|
|
CONN
|
D
|
Murphy
|
Murphy
|
Corey
|
D + 12
|
D + 14
|
D
Solid
|
|
MAINE
|
I
|
King
|
King (I)
|
Ringelstein (D), Brakey (R)
|
D + 22
|
D + 3
|
I Solid (D)
|
|
MICH
|
D
|
Stabenow
|
Stabenow
|
James
|
D + 21
|
R +
0.2
|
D
Solid
|
|
NMEX
|
D
|
Heinrich
|
Heinrich
|
Rich
|
D + 6
|
D + 8
|
D
Solid
|
|
VA
|
D
|
Kaine
|
Kaine
|
Stewart
|
D + 6
|
D + 5
|
D
Solid
|
|
PA
|
D
|
Casey
|
Casey
|
Barletta
|
D + 9
|
R +
1
|
D
Solid
|
|
WISC
|
D
|
Baldwin
|
Baldwin
|
Vukmir
|
D + 5
|
R +
1
|
D
Solid
|
|
OHIO
|
D
|
Brown
|
Brown
|
Renacci
|
D + 5
|
R +
8
|
D
Solid
|
|
WV
|
D
|
Manchin
|
Manchin
|
Morrisey
|
D + 25
|
R +
42
|
D
Solid
|
|
MN (SP)
|
D
|
T. Smith*
|
T. Smith
|
Housley
|
D + 10
|
D + 2
|
D +
7
|
D
Lean
|
IND
|
D
|
Donnelley
|
Donnelley
|
Braun
|
D + 6
|
R +
19
|
D +
4
|
D
TU
|
MONT
|
D
|
Tester
|
Tester
|
Rosendale
|
D + 4
|
R +
20
|
D +
2
|
D
TU
|
ARIZ
|
R
|
Flake (ret.)
|
Sinema
|
McSally
|
R + 4
|
R +
4
|
D +
2
|
D
TU
|
NEV
|
R
|
Heller
|
Rosen
|
Heller
|
R + 1
|
D + 2
|
D +
2
|
D
TU
|
TENN
|
R
|
Corker (ret.)
|
Bredesen
|
Blackburn
|
R + 35
|
R +
26
|
D +
1
|
D
TU
|
MO
|
D
|
McCaskill
|
McCaskill
|
Hawley
|
D + 16
|
R +
19
|
D +
1
|
D
TU
|
FLA
|
D
|
Nelson
|
Nelson
|
Scott
|
D + 13
|
R +
1
|
R +
2
|
R
TU
|
NDAK
|
D
|
Heitkamp
|
Heitkamp
|
Cramer
|
D + 1
|
R +
36
|
R +
4
|
R
TU
|
MS (SP)
|
R
|
Hyde-Smith*
|
Espy
|
Hyde-Smith
|
R + 22
|
R +
18
|
R +
2
|
R
Lean
|
TEXAS
|
R
|
Cruz
|
O'Rourke
|
Cruz
|
R + 17
|
R +
9
|
R +
3
|
R
Lean
|
MS
|
R
|
Wicker
|
Baria
|
Wicker
|
R + 17
|
R +
18
|
R
Solid
|
|
NEB
|
R
|
Fischer
|
Raybould
|
Fischer
|
R + 16
|
R +
25
|
R
Solid
|
|
UTAH
|
R
|
Hatch (ret.)
|
Wilson
|
Romney
|
R + 35
|
R +
18
|
R
Solid
|
|
WYO
|
R
|
Barrasso
|
Trauner
|
Barrasso
|
R + 54
|
R +
46
|
R
Solid
|
|
* Tina Smith replaced Al Franken,
who resigned in 2018
|
||||||||
** Cindy Hyde-Smith replaced
Cochran, who resigned in 2018
|
||||||||
HOUSE
The Democrats continue to be in strong shape. The latest generic ballot – the single
biggest predictor of House seat gains and losses – continues to show a commanding
Democratic lead, at +5.5%, up +1.0 point from one month ago. Our BTRTN models, which have been highly
predictive in the past, and use the generic ballot as a key variable, indicate
a +39 seat gain for the Democrats, which would take them to a 233-202 majority. Again, we see the overall odds of the Dems taking
the House at 82%.
BTRTN HOUSE RACK-UP
|
||
8/20/18
|
9/20/18
|
|
DEM TOTAL
|
230
|
233
|
Dem Solid
|
181
|
182
|
Dem Likely
|
8
|
8
|
Dem Lean
|
10
|
13
|
Dem Toss-up
|
31
|
30
|
GOP Toss-up
|
11
|
0
|
GOP Lean
|
6
|
23
|
GOP Likely
|
26
|
28
|
GOP Solid
|
162
|
151
|
GOP TOTAL
|
205
|
202
|
Using an average the eight rating services (Cook, Sabato,
CNN, RCP, IE, 538, Politico and Daily Kos), there are 102 competitive races
among the total of 435 (in the chart above, the middle six rows). Of these 102, a whopping 89 of them are held by GOP incumbents (including vacancies
previously held by the GOP). The
Democrats only need to flip 23 of them – or, more precisely, net +23, to take control of the House.
Here is a list of those 102 seats, with columns for the incumbent
party, the 25 GOP districts that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016, as well as
our current BTRTN ratings, which are ranked from most likely to be won by the
Democrats to the least likely. You can
use this chart to determine which districts to focus on with your
volunteer efforts.
State
|
Dist.
|
Incumbent Party
|
GOP districts won by HRC in '16
|
BTRTN Rating as of
9/20/18
|
102
|
89 R / 13 D
|
25
|
||
New Jersey
|
2
|
R
|
D Likely
|
|
California
|
7
|
D
|
D Likely
|
|
New Jersey
|
5
|
D
|
D Likely
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
6
|
R
|
HRC
|
D Likely
|
Minnesota
|
7
|
D
|
D Likely
|
|
Florida
|
7
|
D
|
D Likely
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
8
|
R
|
D Likely
|
|
Arizona
|
1
|
D
|
D Likely
|
|
Nevada
|
4
|
D
|
D Lean
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
17
|
D
|
D Lean
|
|
Florida
|
27
|
R
|
HRC
|
D Lean
|
New Hampshire
|
1
|
D
|
D Lean
|
|
Nevada
|
3
|
D
|
D Lean
|
|
Virginia
|
10
|
R
|
HRC
|
D Lean
|
Arizona
|
2
|
R
|
HRC
|
D Lean
|
California
|
49
|
R
|
HRC
|
D Lean
|
Iowa
|
1
|
R
|
D Lean
|
|
New Jersey
|
11
|
R
|
D Lean
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
7
|
R
|
HRC
|
D Lean
|
Colorado
|
6
|
R
|
HRC
|
D Lean
|
Minnesota
|
3
|
R
|
HRC
|
D Lean
|
Michigan
|
11
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Minnesota
|
2
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
North Carolina
|
9
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
California
|
25
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Washington
|
8
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
California
|
48
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Kentucky
|
6
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
New York
|
22
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
California
|
10
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
California
|
39
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
California
|
45
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Iowa
|
3
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
New Jersey
|
3
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
New Jersey
|
7
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
New York
|
19
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Kansas
|
2
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Kansas
|
3
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Minnesota
|
1
|
D
|
D TU
|
|
Minnesota
|
8
|
D
|
D TU
|
|
Ohio
|
1
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Texas
|
7
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Illinois
|
6
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Michigan
|
8
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Florida
|
26
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Illinois
|
12
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Maine
|
2
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Virginia
|
7
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Texas
|
23
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Texas
|
32
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Virginia
|
2
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
West Virginia
|
3
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Nebraska
|
2
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
New Mexico
|
2
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Ohio
|
12
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
1
|
D
|
HRC
|
R Lean
|
North Carolina
|
13
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Washington
|
5
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Illinois
|
13
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Utah
|
4
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Virginia
|
5
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Wisconsin
|
1
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Montana
|
1
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Arkansas
|
2
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
California
|
50
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Georgia
|
7
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Illinois
|
14
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
North Carolina
|
2
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Washington
|
3
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
California
|
21
|
R
|
HRC
|
R Lean
|
Florida
|
16
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Michigan
|
7
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
New York
|
11
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Georgia
|
6
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
New York
|
27
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
10
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Florida
|
15
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Florida
|
25
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
New York
|
24
|
R
|
HRC
|
R Likely
|
Ohio
|
14
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
16
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
California
|
4
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Florida
|
6
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Florida
|
18
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Michigan
|
6
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
New York
|
1
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Texas
|
21
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Wisconsin
|
6
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Colorado
|
3
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Indiana
|
2
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
S. Carolina
|
1
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Texas
|
31
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Arizona
|
8
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Alaska
|
1
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Iowa
|
4
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Michigan
|
1
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Arizona
|
6
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
California
|
22
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Indiana
|
9
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Ohio
|
7
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Missouri
|
2
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
North Carolina
|
8
|
R
|
R Likely
|
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