BTRTN's Annual Major League Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions

At BTRTN, we predict things.  Most of the time, we are predicting the outcome of political elections, but occasionally we take a break from politics and turn our attention to the real national pastime:  baseball.  Each year, we take on the Ruthian task of predicting who will be elected to the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame.  The results of the voting will be announced on January 24, and we will see how we did then.

NOTE:  We realize that votes for the MLB Hall of Fame are being slowly and publicly tabulated, and that articles have already appeared on the early trends.  In preparing these predictions, we have avoided all of these tabulations and articles, so these are “pure” predictions guided only by our own statistical methods and judgment.

Each year we analyze the baseball Hall of Fame ballot to answer two questions:  1) who amongst the nominees deserves to be in the Hall of Fame? and 2) which of them will actually be elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the vote of the Baseball Writers Association of America (we also predict what percentage each nominee will receive). The two lists are never identical.  To answer the first question, we have developed a methodology to compare nominees to their predecessors to determine their HOF-worthiness.  For the second question, we use various statistical models to come up with an initial estimate of the percentage of the vote they will receive, and we use judgment to massage and finalize that estimate.

Last year we had a so-so year.  We were pretty much dead-on in predicting Jeff Bagwell (projected 87% of the vote, actual 86%) and Tim Raines (85/86) would join the Hall, as they did.  But we just missed on Trevor Hoffman…we thought he would also get into the HOF with 82%, but he just missed at 74%.  Where we really missed was Pudge Rodriguez; in his first year, we thought Pudge would be tainted by the same kind of steroid-usage rumors that kept the also-deserving Mike Piazza and Jeff Bagwell out of the HOF until their 4^th and 7^th ballot, respectively; we had Pudge at 40% for his Year 1, but he made it to the HOF by a nose with 76%.

It’s always difficult to predict first-timers, and while we were off with Pudge, we were correct that Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez and Jorge Posada – the other first-time candidates who had realistic shots -- would not make the HOF.  But we were wildly off with Vladdy on the percentage vote – we thought he would be overlooked and underappreciated, as he had been his whole career, and would get only 12% of the vote.  But he had much greater support than that, and came very close to the HOF with 72%. 

We did better on Manny, a clear steroid abuser who we had at 15% (our regression model has PED usage as a variable, and it works!) and he received 24% -- not bad.  We thought Jorge would make it to a second year with 11%, but he fell short at 4%.  Too bad, as he is one of the great offensive catchers of all time, but like Ted Simmons, he did worse than he deserved (we think both of them should be in the HOF).

We were quite close on most of the others on the ballot.

On to this year!  Let’s get to the answers to our two questions first, and then work through the various analyses that got us there.

BTRTN predicts that the MLB Hall of Fame will soon vote in FOUR new members:  Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman and Jim Thome.

BTRTN agrees that each of those four should be in the HOF, but that the ballot also includes eight players that also should be in the HOF, but will fall short in the balloting:  Jeff Kent, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mike Mussina, Scott Rolen, Curt Schilling, Billy Wagner and Larry Walker.

Bottom line:  we believe there are 12 qualified players on the ballot, but the voters will only do right by four of them this year.

Here is the summary chart:

2018	BALLOT YEAR	WAR	SHOULD BE IN HOF?	PROJECTED %(75% NEEDED)
Chipper Jones	1	85	YES	93
Vladimir Guerrero	2	59	YES	82
Trevor Hoffman	3	28	YES	80
Jim Thome	1	73	YES	76
Edgar Martinez	9	68	YES	63
Roger Clemens	6	140	NO (PED)	56
Mike Mussina	5	83	YES	56
Barry Bonds	6	162	NO (PED)	54
Curt Schilling	6	80	YES	48
Scott Rolen	1	70	YES	40
Manny Ramirez	2	69	NO (PED)	27
Fred McGriff	9	52	YES	26
Larry Walker	8	73	YES	23
Jeff Kent	5	55	YES	17
Andruw Jones	1	63	NO	15
Gary Sheffield	4	60	NO (PED)	11
Billy Wagner	3	28	YES	10
Jamie Moyer	1	50	NO	7
Omar Vizquel	1	45	NO	7
Sammy Sosa	6	58	NO (PED)	6
Johan Santana	1	51	NO	4
Johnny Damon	1	56	NO	4
Hideki Matsui	1	21	NO	4
Carlos Zambrano	1	45	NO	1
Chris Carpenter	1	35	NO	1
Jason Isringhausen	1	13	NO	1
Livan Hernandez	1	31	NO	0
Orlando Hudson	1	31	NO	0
Kevin Millwood	1	29	NO	0
Kerry Wood	1	28	NO	0
Carlos Lee	1	28	NO	0
Aubrey Huff	1	20	NO	0
Brad Lidge	1	8	NO	0

Note that the steroids-tainted players are slowly working their way through the ballot.  Clemens, Bonds and Sosa are in their 6^th year, more than halfway through their ballot  life (which was shortened last year for all nominees from 15 years to 10); Gary Sheffield is in his fourth year and Manny his second.  Last year the first four all made a bit of a jump, perhaps related to changes in the composition of the voters, as a number of older (and presumably more “traditional”) writers retired, and were replaced by younger voters.  We don’t foresee a similar jump occurring again this year; we predict we will (merely) see the “typical” year-to-year uplift we often see among those who are on the ballot for two or more years.  We will stipulate that the steroid-fivesome’s stats are HOF-worthy, and also that we believe their actions are disqualifying, and we will not mention them again in our analysis. 

We will also ignore that those on the ballot who have no business being there, by and large those with WAR’s under 40; what follows are assessments of the nominees we deem worthy to be “in the conversation,” by position.

We compare each player to Hall of Famers at his position across a number of key statistics, both traditional (hits, homers, RBI’s and batting average) and non-traditional (OPS+ and WAR).  We show the average statistics for all the Hall of Famers at his position, and then divide the Hall of Famers into halves, separately (using WAR) the top half of the HOF from the bottom half.  And we also include these stats for the “next ten,” the ten players at the position who have the highest WARs but are not in the HOF.  These latter two groups define the so-called “borderline.”

Our general feeling is that a candidate, to be worthy of the HOF, must be at least as good as the “average” HOF’er at his position across these stats.  Borderline won’t do.  As you will note, the “lower half” HOF’ers are really indistinguishable from the ones who just missed, the “next 10.”  To make the HOF, in our view, you have separate yourself from the “lower halfers” and the “not-quites.”

First Base

Jim Thome is a clear Hall of Famer, and we project he will get in on the first ballot.  Thome has 612 homers: greater than 500 is a credential on its own (27 players have hit 500 homers, and all of them who are eligible are in the HOF except the known steroid abusers).  On top of that, Thome’s RBI total surpasses even the top half HOF’ers and his OPS+ and WAR are above the average group.  He’s a must, in our view; whether he makes it in on the first ballot is the only question.  He was never an MVP (though he was Top 10 four times) and he batted only .211 in 71 postseason games (albeit with 17 homers), and those factors might hurt him.

Fred McGriff has always been a very tough call for us, but we have convinced ourselves that he belongs in the HOF.  His home run and RBI totals make a strong case – the homers are way above the greats of the position, and his RBI total right with them.  On the minus side, his WAR and OPS+ are right with the bottom half folks and the next 10.  But on balance, he is better than those groups and deserves to be in the HOF.

FIRST BASE	Avg.	Hits	HR	RBI	OPS+	WAR
Top Half	0.315	2587	340	1578	153	84
Avg HOF	0.308	2398	303	1439	143	67
Bottom Half	0.301	2210	265	1300	133	50
Next 10 non-HOF	0.290	2162	261	1172	130	52
Jim Thome	0.276	2328	612	1699	147	73
Fred McGriff	0.284	2490	493	1550	134	52

Second Base

Jeff Kent is the all-time leading home run hitter among second baseman, and is third in RBIs behind Rogers Hornsby and Napoleon Lajoie.  He also won an MVP once, was a Top 10 in the MVP balloting three other times, and he hit three homers and had seven RBI’s in his only World Series.  He was simply one of the greatest power-hitting second basemen ever and the greatest of modern times.  His WAR may be a bit low, but there is no question he deserves to be in the HOF.  He ticked off a few sportswriters in his time, and we hope that is not being held against him; this is his fifth time on the ballot. 

SECOND BASE	Avg.	Hits	HR	RBI	OPS+	WAR
Top Half	0.314	2780	181	1259	132	90
Avg HOF	0.298	2442	160	1089	120	69
Bottom Half	0.283	2103	139	920	107	48
Next 10 non-HOF	0.285	2051	133	889	116	52
Jeff Kent	0.29	2461	377	1518	123	55

Shortstop

Omar Vizquel is on the ballot for the first time, and while he deserves to be in consideration, we don’t think he will be elected, nor do we think he should.  With an OPS of only 82 – that means 18% worse than the league average over his career – he is well below both the bottom half and the Next 10.  He is almost the definition of a borderline candidate.   The main thing going for him is his 2,877 hits, a testament to his longevity – he did play 24 years.  We do think Omar will exceed the 5% standard and get to a second year, but that might be it for him.

SHORTSTOP	Avg.	Hits	HR	RBI	OPS+	WAR
Top Half	0.290	2597	173	1241	116	76
Avg HOF	0.286	2336	120	1053	109	63
Bottom Half	0.282	1997	51	809	100	46
Next 10	0.276	1995	92	903	105	49
Omar Vizquel	0.272	2877	80	951	82	45

Third Base

Chipper Jones is certain first-ballot HOF’er, one of the greats at his position of all time.  All of his stats except WAR exceed the average of the top half of HOF third basemen.  After Mike Schmitt, you could argue that he is the second best third basemen of all time, and have a nice bar room debate about it with fans of Eddie Matthews and George Brett.  He’s certainly ahead of everyone else.  Chipper is in this year, for sure.

Scott Rolen should have avoided retiring the same year as Chipper Jones.  In fact, he should have avoided overlapping his entire career in the same league as Chipper.  And, maybe he should have avoided playing third base, a position the HOF is not kind to (!).   Rolen was a terrific, if underrated player.  Chipper may dominate Rolen in every category, but Rolen in turn is solidly above the average third base HOF’er in all the power categories, and he was a great fielder, too.  We believe Rolen should be in the HOF, but he might not get in for quite a few years, if at all.  (Voters might say, he’s not much better than Graig Nettles, who never made the HOF, which is true – except Nettles should be in the HOF as well.)

THIRD BASE	Avg.	Hits	HR	RBI	OPS+	WAR
Top Half	0.288	2712	353	1403	132	90
Avg HOF	0.296	2352	228	1203	124	67
Bottom Half	0.303	2052	124	1037	117	47
Next 10 non-HOF	0.270	2086	256	1103	117	56
Chipper Jones	0.303	2726	468	1623	141	85
Scott Rolen	0.281	2077	316	1287	122	70

Outfield/DH

We put the DHs in with the outfielders because there are not enough retired mostly-DH’s to evaluate separately. 

Larry Walker’s candidacy suffers from “Coors Field Syndrome,” s critics devalue his otherworldly home OPS of 1.068 and focus instead on his very-good-but-not-HOF-worthy .865 on the road.  In Walker’s defense, players generally do better at home than on the road (even if not quite to Walker’s extent).  And his 73 WAR is already park-adjusted, and his overall stats are pretty much on the mark of an average HOF outfielder.  Walker is on our ballot.

Edgar Martinez gets dissed because he was mostly a full-time DH (68% of his games), but with an extremely healthy WAR of 68 and OPS+ of 147, he deserves to be in the HOF.  There are not enough DH’s at this point to compare him to, but in comparing him to the outfielders, you can see that his stats dominate those of the bottom half in every respect.  He’s on our ballot.

Andruw Jones is an interesting case, with those 434 homers and a 63 WAR that also reflects his outstanding defensive skills (the defense part of that WAR is 24).  We don’t those positives will be enough to offset his tepid (and below the bottom half and next 10) OPS+ of 111.  We have him getting 15% of the vote, but he could surprise on the upside.  Nevertheless, we do not think he is HOF-worthy.

Vladimir Guerrero brings his monster stats to the ballot for the second time and he is very deserving.  He will almost certainly be elected this year, given his 72% support last year, his first time on the ballot.  Clearly traditional stats still reign, as his WAR is on the low side.  But those homers and RBI stats are top half, and he will deserve his election.

Johnny Damon, like all speedsters, gets undervalued by traditional and less traditional stats.  But there is no escaping that shockingly low 104 OPS+.  Apart from that, he is not too dissimilar from Tim Raines, who finally made the HOF last year.  But Raines stole twice as many bases (808 versus 408) and a higher WAR (65 versus 56).  Damon was also a dismal defender (a defense WAR of -3).  We don’t think Johnny deserve to be in the HOF, and we think he will fall short of the 5% standard as well. 

Hideki Matsui is another interesting case.  He came to MLB at age 29, with a full 10-year career in Japan behind him, where he became “Godzilla” on the strength of a .995 OPS.  Voters would have to consider that phase of his career to put him in consideration for the HOF (unlike Ichiro, who can stand for the HOF on just his MLB credentials).  We’ve put Matsui’s total (US and Japan) stats on a separate line to get a sense of what he accomplished in his entire career.  But we think Matsui will not get any credit for Japan, and will not get to 5%, though he will get a few votes (some will remember his World Series MVP performance in 2009, “The Return of Godzilla,” when Matsui went 8-13 with three homers and eight RBIs.)

OUTFIELD/DH	Avg.	Hits	HR	RBI	OPS+	WAR
Top Half	0.317	2922	310	1496	145	92
Avg HOF	0.313	2567	239	1283	136	70
Bottom Half	0.309	2175	161	1047	127	46
Next 10 non-HOF	0.282	2096	241	1052	126	59
Larry Walker	0.313	2160	383	1311	141	73
Edgar Martinez	0.312	2247	309	126`1	147	68
Andruw Jones	0.254	1933	434	1289	111	63
Vladimir Guerrero	0.318	2590	449	1496	140	59
Johnny Damon	0.284	2769	235	1139	104	56
Hideki Matsui	0.282	1253	175	760	118	21
Hideki Matsui	0.293	2655	508	1654	n/a	n/a

Starting Pitchers

Mike Mussina, in our view, was a stronger candidate than Tom Glavine when they were both on the ballot together in 2014, each for the first time.  Mussina has a better ERA+, won-loss percentage and WAR than Glavine, but the votes for Glavine demonstrated the mystical power of the 300-win mark.  It was ludicrous that Glavine received 92% of the votes to Mussina’s 20%.  It is entirely possible that no one will ever win more than Moose’s total of 270 again.  Moose deserves to be in the HOF.

Curt Schilling’s ERA+ is a sterling 127 and his WAR is a hefty 81, both up there with the top halfers.  And if you like postseason performances, his stats are phenomenal:  11-2 with a 2.23 ERA.  We’re not fans of his off the field, but Schilling would be on our Hall of Fame ballot.

Jamie Moyer is the ultimate “longevity” candidate, a “stat compiler” by virtue of the sheer volume of pitching for 25 seasons.  The big clue here is his “ERA+” of only 103 – meaning his career ERA was only 3% better than the average for the league over his time.  You can see the average starting pitcher in the HOF had an ERA+ of 122.  Having said that, his 269 wins (one short of Mussina) will also likely never be matched again, and that will drive some support, enough, in our projection, to get him over the 5% mark.

STARTING PITCHERS	W	W-L PCT.	ERA	ERA+	WAR	IP
Top Half	314	0.592	2.96	124	89	4735
Avg HOF	267	0.598	2.97	123	70	3998
Bottom Half	221	0.605	2.97	122	50	3260
Next 10 non-HOF	237	0.568	3.07	116	64	3758
Mike Mussina	270	0.638	3.68	123	83	3562
Curt Schilling	216	0.597	3.46	127	80	3261
Jamie Moyer	269	0.563	4.25	103	50	4074

We did not given Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter or Carlos Zambrano any consideration.  Each was a fine pitcher, but the Hall of Fame has never inducted a starting pitcher with less than 150 wins, and we doubt they would start with any of these three.

Relief Pitchers

There is not an extensive history of relief pitchers, so we have changed the comparison categories accordingly.  Here we compare the four “pure” relievers in the HOF (Gossage, Fingers, Sutter and Wilhelm – that is, we’re excluding Dennis Eckersley) with the 13 relievers who reached 300 or more saves but were turned aside on the first ballot by HOF voters (none met the 5% threshold).  

What is interesting is that the top group averaged fewer saves than the non-HOF group and both had near identical ERA+.  Three things distinguish the HOF quartet:  their lower WHIP (1.16 versus 1.27), higher WARs (35 versus 18) and, perhaps most revealing, their higher innings pitcher per game (1.8 versus 1.2).  The HOF relievers were NOT “one inning wonders”; they averaged nearly two innings per outing. 

RELIEF PITCHERS	Saves	IP	ERA+	WHIP	WAR	IP/G
Avg. HOF (ex-Eck)*	295	1702	131	1.16	35	1.8
Non-HOF 300+ Saves	341	1021	130	1.27	18	1.2
Trevor Hoffman	601	1089	141	1.06	28	1.1
Billy Wagner	422	903	187	1.00	28	1.1
Jason Isringhausen	300	1008	115	1.33	12	1.4
* Gossage, Fingers, Sutter, Wilhelm

Hall voters seemed to be saying that the one-inning wonders need to do much more than merely reach 300+ saves to warrant HOF status.  They want more saves (many more) and lower WHIPs than the two-inning legends.  In other words, you’ve got to be really dominant one-inning reliever to make it – like Mariano Rivera (who will be eligible for the HOF next year and will be voted in on that first ballot – you heard it here first!). 

Against that backdrop, let’s evaluate our three legitimate candidates. 

Trevor Hoffman.  So you want more saves?  How about over 600?  Lower WHIP?  How is 1.06?  Hoffman received 74% of the vote last year, his second, so his accomplishments were noted.  He will make the HOF this year, and he deserves to.

Billy Wagner may be a headscratcher to some, but his statistics are incredible, and some keen voters – too few -- have noticed this because he has made it to a third year on the ballot.  He has well over 400 saves and a 1.00 WHIP that is equal to that of the hallowed Mariano Rivera (and better than Hoffman’s 1.06).  His WAR is the same as Hoffman’s.  He’s on our ballot, too, though we don’t see him getting much more support than in the past (10%).

Jason Isringhausen recorded 300 saves, so he is in the conversation.  He was a starter early in his career, and that accounts for his higher (1.4) innings per outing.  As a reliever his WHIP was 1.24, and his reliever stat line is basically right in line with the non-HOF 300+ save group.  He will not be elected, nor should he.

That’s it!  Come back on January 24^th and see how we did!