BTRTN SaturData Review: Trump's Approval Rate Rises – But Pre-Wolff, So We’ll See

Tom with the “SaturData Review” which updates key political indicators and highlights other pertinent info from the week.

As you read this, in the wake of a half-week of “Fire and Fury” madness, it may surprise you to learn that President Trump’s approval rating went up -- markedly -- in the last two weeks (we skipped a week here at SaturData as some pollsters took the holiday week off).  You should carefully note the matter of timing…the polls we use to track Trump’s current approval rating largely covered the time period before the New York magazine excerpts of Michael Wolff’s incredible new book were published on Wednesday, January 3.  We shall have to wait for the next round of polls to fully assess whether the most complete inside picture of the self-proclaimed “stable genius” (and all the attendant questions about his mental state) has any effect on his standing with the nation.

The improvement of +4 full points, from 39% to 43%, is real, and almost certainly reflects two factors:  the passage of the GOP tax law, and the relative quiet (ah, yes, there was quiet, remember?) over the holiday period before the book story broke.  The one lesson Trump never seems to learn in his endless quest to dominate the news is that his approval rating invariably goes up when he takes a break.

(A note on methodology: BTRTN calculates our weekly approval ratings using an average of the four pollsters who conduct daily or weekly approval rating polls: Gallup, Rasmussen, Reuters/Ipsos and You Gov/Economist. This provides consistent and accurate trending information and does not muddy the waters by including infrequent pollsters.  The outcome tends to mirror the RCP average but, we believe, our method gives more precise trending. 

For this update, only the Rasmussen polling window touched the post-Wolff period, and then for only a single day, hardly enough to register any movement that may result.)

The “generic ballot” also saw sharp improvement for the GOP, from a Democratic lead of +11 points to “only” a +7.  This is still a very dangerous zone for the GOP, but, of course, does demonstrate clear evidence that the passage of the tax law was a win for the GOP.  We’ll see how it goes as the details become better known and the law itself takes effect.

SaturData Review	Jan 2017   Post-Inaug.	Wk ending   Dec 23	Wk ending   Jan 6	Change vs. Dec 23	Change vs. Jan 2017
Trump Approval	48%	39%	43%	+4 pp	-9 pp
Trump Disapproval	44%	57%	54%	-3 pp	+13 pp
Trump Net Approval	+4 pp	-19 pp	-11 pp	+8 pp	-22 pp
Generic Ballot Dem - Rep	D + 6	D + 11	D + 7	-4 pp	+5 pp
Trumpometer	0%	+20%	+18%	-2 pp	+18%
Unemployment Rate	4.7	4.1	4.1	0%	13%
Consumer Confidence	114	130	122	-6%	7%
Price of Gas	2.44	2.57	2.64	-3%	-8%
Dow-Jones	19,732	24,754	25,296	2%	28%
Most recent GDP	2.1	3.2	3.2	0%	52%

The economy remains a powerful story for Trump, albeit in the “taking credit” department (most Wall Street analysts dismiss any government role in the stock market surge, pointing instead to strong economic fundamentals that were in place long before Trump took office).  The Dow continued to roar, now up over 25,000, and new jobs data showed the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%.  On the other hand, the Consumer Confidence index took a surprising drop from 130 to 122, and the price of gas rose.

POLITICAL STAT OF THE WEEK

The topic of today’s stat is “turnover,” that is, the percentage of Trump’s senior team that left office within his first year in office, by whatever means (either being fired or resigning).  In Trump’s first year, fully 34% of his senior team departed, 22 out of 64 officials.  They would include such familiar names as Steve Bannon, Reince Preibus, Sean Spicer and Anthony Scaramucci. 

This is the highest turnover rate on record.  The previous high in recent times was under Ronald Reagan; 17% of the Gipper’s team left by the Year One mark – just about half of Trump’s rate.

The rate for Barack Obama’s team was 9%; for George W. Bush, 6%; and for Bill Clinton, 11%.

Wait until Year Two, when the scores may really change.