We take a break from our political coverage to check in on Jeremy Lin, with this third annual installment on his remarkable saga. The first was published exactly two years ago. It was titled "The Strange and Badly Misunderstood Career of Jeremy Lin" and examined the many twists and turns Lin's career had taken from his Linsanity days with the Knicks until that time, February, 2015, when Lin was in the midst of a lost year with the Lakers.
The second, published a year ago, was titled "The Jeremy Lin Saga Continues...JLin Strikes Back as a Hornet," a hopeful chapter that covered
the second half of his Laker madness -- when he came out strong from the
All-Star break, sustained solid play for the balance of the year and, quite remarkably,
ultimately returned to Byron Scott’s starting lineup – through his signing and
strong early performance as a role player with the Charlotte Hornets.
The central thesis of these articles is that while
Lin’s play and reputation have never regained the heights of his Knick days,
this was more a consequence of circumstances than his level of play. That Linsanity player still exists, and
emerges every dozen games or so, but he has never been given a consistent chance
to prove that he is a legitimate NBA starting point guard, with the keys to the
offense firmly in his hands.
The story – Part III -- picks up from a year ago, covering
the remainder of his Hornets tour, through the signing with the Nets and his
maddening, injury-laced time with them.
The twists and turns of his remarkable saga have, if at all possible,
intensified with the Nets, and thus he still remains the controversial enigma
that sparks the full gamut of emotions from NBA fans.
The Hornets Post All-Star Break
Whatever becomes of Jeremy Lin’s career from this point
forward, his single year stint in Charlotte will be viewed as an important
inflection point. Having found both
Houston and, in particular, Los Angeles nearly intolerable environments –
terrible coaches, a constantly shifting role, dominant stars usurping his nominal
role as point guard – Charlotte was a godsend.
Lin had signed a below-market deal with Charlotte, and had
no chance to dislodge franchise-face Kemba Walker as the starting point
guard. Charlotte was a small-market team
on the rise, in a friendly city. They
had a terrific coach, Steve Clifford, who actually coached – that is, he had coherent, team-oriented systems,
instilled a terrific culture, was defense-oriented and, most importantly, he
developed his players. While Lin would
have no chance to find his ceiling with Walker ahead of him, he would have a
defined role in which to rebuild his confidence. As chronicled in last year’s article, Lin
thrived early on in Charlotte – it was clear that through his adversity in
Houston and Los Angeles, he had matured as a player, broadened his skill set as
both a point guard and a shooting guard, did whatever was asked, and more.
Playing time might possibly have been an issue in
Charlotte. Apart from Walker, the
Hornets had newly-acquired Nicolas Batum at the two, and Batum was a budding
star also capable of superb playmaking.
Jeremy Lamb was looking to unlock his potential in the backup shooting
guard role. Thus this would be a
four-guard rotation, unlike Houston where Lin received roughly 30 minutes per
game whether he started alongside James Harden or subbed in as the third guard
behind Patrick Beverly.
But Lin also got a break, perhaps his first since
Linsanity. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, a
defensive genius in the three spot, went down with an injured shoulder in
preseason, and ultimately played in only seven games all year. This loss resulted in the 6’8” Batum
splitting his time between the two and the three, opening up solid minutes for
Lin. He used those minutes well, spearheading
the “Bench Force One” second unit of Charlotte, which quickly became one of the
best in the NBA.
And so we pick up Lin’s saga after the All-Star break,
during which the rising Hornets made a sensational trade, dumping two marginal
players, Brian Roberts and the puzzling starter-by-default P.J. Hairston to
pick-up veteran guard Courtney Lee, an unselfish, energetic defender who could
knock down the open three. Lee became
the starting shooting guard, Batum swung to the three full-time, and Lin faced
playing time pressure once again.
And indeed, Lin went through an indifferent stretch after
the All-Star break. For the next 15
games, Lin struggled for playing time, averaging a mere 22 minutes. He shot poorly, 31% from the floor and 26%
from the three-point line. But the Hornets, with Lee clearly a huge upgrade
over Hairston, thrived, going 12-3. It
certainly looked like the narrative would be that Lin would play out the string
and face the prospect of solid off-season free agent interest in him as a role
player, but not necessarily having shown enough to warrant starter interest.
And then it all changed.
The turnaround began with a solid game against Denver, in which Lin
regained his shooting touch and went for 16 points in 24 minutes. But the head-turner came the next game
against the perennial stand-out San Antonio Spurs.
The Spurs utterly dominated the game at the outset. Lin had entered the game at the 4-minute mark
in the first quarter, when the Spurs were already up 22-6, and they ran the
lead up to 30-7 early in the second period.
The game had blowout written all over it.
But if ever a game had a clear turning point, it came at
the 11-minute mark, when Lin hit a spectacular 27-foot bomb from the top of the
key as he was flattened by David West.
Sure, the four-pointer only cut the lead to 19, but the Spurs’ momentum
was stopped in its tracks. Lin scored 8 more in the quarter, including three
driving layups (two reverses) and a floater at the half, plus a perfect
three-quarter court bomb to Frank Kaminsky for a lay-up. By the half the Spurs lead was still 15, but
the Hornets had hung tough.
If Lin’s second quarter was excellent, the second half was
pure Linsanity. The Hornets had done
well in cutting the lead to a mere five by the time Lin re-entered the game with
three minutes to go in the third quarter.
Lin proceed to score 15 points in those last 15 minutes, a stunning
array of 3-pointers, floaters and fadeaways, the last putting the Hornets ahead
for good at 89-88 with 48 seconds to go.
Lin hit two free throws to finish the Spurs off in what was clearly the
best comeback of the year in the NBA.
Lin had 29 points on 11-18 shooting, 4-4 from the three, 3-3 from the
foul line, plus seven rebounds, two assists and a steal, all in just 31 minutes…and
inspiring another round of “Linsanity Returns” headlines on the highlight
shows.
Lin continued to be more than solid down the stretch. For the last 13 games, including Denver and
San Antonio, Lin found his game, averaging 28 minutes, 14 points and a stellar
shooting slash line of 45%/45%/80%, plus four rebounds and three assists. He scored 21 against Brooklyn the next night,
and later torched both Boston and Toronto.
And it was noticed.
The Hornets were clearly a team on the rise, earning the 6th
slot in the NBA East, and actually tied at 48-34 with the three teams ahead of
them. One of those teams, the Miami
Heat, would be the Hornets’ first-round opponent in the playoffs.
The first two games were a disaster for the Hornets, first getting
crushed by 32 and then losing by12 in Miami, with Lin contributing little as
the entire team underperformed. But Lin
responded when the stakes were highest, with two exceptional games in
Charlotte, leading the team with 18 in game three, the clear sparkplug in the
comeback win, and playing sidekick to Kemba Walker in game four, with 21 to
Walker’s 34 in a tight game where Charlotte prevailed 89-85. Game five, another close win, featured
another solid, if unspectacular Lin performance, with 11 points, 6 rebounds and
7 assists in 34 minutes.
But the Heat took the last two, with Lin limited by fouls
in game six. Game seven saw him reduced
inexplicably to 19 minutes, despite fine offensive output (4-8 from the floor),
and Hornet fans were left wondering why Coach Clifford never turned to
Linsanity in a game where Kemba Walker was simply awful, shooting 3-16 in 36
minutes on the brightest stage of his career.
The season in Charlotte rehabilitated Lin’s reputation, and
the playoffs showcased his game and solidified the personal turnaround that the
season represented. He had excelled in
his role, was a crucial cog in a rising team, improved his defense – never as
bad as his detractors would have it, but better under Clifford – to the point
where Clifford relied on it. And Lin
flat out carried the team on multiple occasions (most remarkably and notably in
the Cleveland and San Antonio games) in true Linsanity fashion.
This was one of those amazing cases where the eye test told
the story. Because you could not find it
in the statistics. Compare his stats
with the Lakers and the Hornets.
Team
|
MIN
|
FG%
|
3P%
|
FT%
|
REB
|
AST
|
STL
|
BLK
|
TOV
|
PTS
|
|
|
25.8
|
0.424
|
0.369
|
0.795
|
2.6
|
4.6
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
2.2
|
11.2
|
|
|
26.3
|
0.412
|
0.336
|
0.815
|
3.2
|
3.0
|
0.7
|
0.5
|
1.9
|
11.7
|
How could one year be viewed as a disaster and the other a
rebirth? One could argue that his
Lakers’ line is a bit better than what he complied in Charlotte, with
marginally better shooting stats and more assists (the latter, though,
doubtless reflecting Lin playing far more shooting guard than point guard with
Charlotte). Obviously, Lin was a similar
player, but the Byron Scott/Kobe Bryant histrionics, the benching of Lin in
favor of the journeyman Ronnie Price, the DNP, the tanking, the utter
dysfunction of the Lakers organization – all took their toll on Lin’s reputation,
which was already sliding due to the Houston experience. But Lin, clearly, was largely the same player
in each stop, with the exception of being a stronger defender under Clifford’s
tutelage.
With low-key Charlotte -- and a lower salary, a substitute
role, a more stable team on the rise and a far better coach -- Lin’s
contributions were viewed as exceeding expectations, for the first time since
Linsanity.
But however favorable the Charlotte experience, that chapter
once again failed to answer the overriding question of Jeremy Lin’s strange
career – what was he really capable of? Had
he proven in Charlotte that he was indeed capable of stellar play as a starting
NBA point guard, if given the chance, or merely reinforced the notion that his best
fit was as a role player, an ideal sixth man?
After six NBA seasons with five teams, he continued to be a
12 point/4 assist player in 27 minutes per game – extremely solid, and for a
sixth man, quite exceptional. But those
stats translate to 16/6 on a per-36 basis – which would put him (based on
2015/16 stats) solidly in with the Goran Dragic, Darren Collison, Deron
Williams and even Derrick Rose, just outside the Top Ten among point
guards. Lin fans were more convinced
than ever that if he ever got that chance, he would achieve that or even better,
and thus validate the Linsanity label once and for all.
The Offseason Decision
Unlike the year before, Lin’s performance with Charlotte,
especially down the stretch and in the playoffs, ensured that he would be in
demand as a free agent, and he knew it.
He exercised his player option for a second season (there was no way he
was going to play again for $2 million a year) and waited for July 1,
presumably confident that he would be busy at midnight and not have to scramble
for a deal as in 2016.
Point guard has become the glamour position in the
NBA. Those of us who have followed the
NBA for 50+ years have seen eras of dominant centers (Wilt, Russell and Jabbar
and then later Robinson, Ewing, Olajuwon and O’Neill) and of wondrous position-transcending
legends (Jordan, Magic and Bird). But
the modern NBA, with its emphasis on ball movement, spread floors and
three-point shooting, both demands and reflects the plethora of stellar point
guards who can shoot, penetrate, finish or kick-out, the engines of offensive
shows. Along with LeBron James, Kevin
Durant and Anthony Davis, the best players in the league are point guards,
starting with the “Fab Four” of reigning MVP Steph Curry, likely 2016/17 MVP
Russell Westbrook, his main competition for that honor, James Harden and the
veteran Chris Paul, perhaps having his best season until being bitten by the
injury bug.
The point guard talent run does not stop there. Kyrie Irving – knocking on the door of the
top echelon with his superb playoff run with the champion Cavs – the aforementioned Kemba Walker, the
pint-sized scoring machine Isiah Thomas, the incredibly athletic John Wall and
Damon Lillard, and quiet superstar Mike Conley round out an elite Top Ten. Based on his last two seasons, late bloomer Kyle
Lowry belongs with that group too. And
it continues, with Goran Drajic, Jeff Teague, George Hill, Eric Bledsoe, Jrue
Holiday, Darren Collison and Reggie Jackson in the next tier of solid talents,
all capable of All-Star play. There are
some potential stars on the way up (Dennis Schroder of Atlanta, DeAngelo
Russell of the Lakers) and a few veterans squeezing out some final productive
years, notably Tony Parker of the Spurs and Deron Williams of Dallas. (Derrick Rose is only 28 but is clearly
already on the other side of the mountain, and a relic at that – a point guard
who cannot shoot the three, at 30% for his career and 24% this year, and cannot
defend.) And apart from Russell and
Schroder, there are other youngsters like Emmanuel Mudiay and Elfrid Payton
getting their shot.
In short, as Lin faced the free agent market, most NBA
teams were set at the point. Only a
handful of teams – the Knicks, Nets and Philadelphia – had gaping holes. And there were only two starting point guards
available, Mike Conley, who was almost surely going to resign with Memphis, and
Sacramento’s controversial and downward trending Rajon Rondo. Lin was clearly the next best option, have
been the top point guard in the Sixth Man of the Year Voting.
Lin fans are used to a “shadow” off-season dance, of
calibrating not only likely Lin options but also those of Mike D’Antoni, the
man who unleashed Linsanity as the Knicks’ head coach in 2011-12. D’Antoni had spent the 2015-16 season as a
rather prominent assistant with Philadelphia, in charge of the offense, and one
dream was that he would remain with Philly and unleash Lin in a pick-and-roll
feast with all those young big men that Philly has acquired in much-maligned “Process”. But D’Antoni would find himself back in the
“starting lineup” again himself, as head coach of, of all team, the Houston
Rockets, thus foreclosing the star-crossed Lin reunion (the pair has just missed
getting together in La La Land).
D’Antoni promptly installed Harden at the actual (rather than de facto)
point guard and ultimately this fueled a Rocket renaissance in 2016/17. No room for Lin in that set-up.
With D’Antoni no longer a factor in the Lin stakes, all signs
pointed to Brooklyn. The Nets were a
truly god-awful franchise, stripped of their immediate future as a consequence
of the unfortunate reign of GM Billy King.
In 2013 King, under orders from the Nets’ owner, Russian billionaire Mikhail
Prokhorov, to build an “instant winner,” traded away years of first-round
drafts picks to Boston to secure the services of aging superstars Paul Pierce
and Kevin Garnett, plugging the pair into a starting five that also included
Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and young Brook Lopez. It looked great on paper, and might have been
great three years before, but that Net team, while respectable, was no playoff
threat and built to collapse. And they
did, winning a mere 20 games in 2015-16 after all those starters save Lopez
were finally jettisoned…and the Celtics still owning most of the Nets’ future
draft picks.
Give Prokhorov credit for reassessing. Stung by the failure of his hubris, he
started over, firing King and heading to San Antonio for his next move, the
most successful NBA franchise of this century.
There he found Sean Marks and tabbed him as his GM and Marks in turn
hired Kenny Atkinson as his coach. Together
they made a plan to rebuild the Nets the old-fashioned way, through shrewd
signings of hungry young veterans, old-for-young trades, player development and
a hard-working culture that was christened “Brooklyn Grit.”
And Jeremy Lin was an absolute perfect fit for this
plan. The Nets had no point guard –
Jarrett Jack, already in the lower end of the NBA’s point guard stock, was lost
for the year to an injury, and Shane Larkin and Donald Sloan were more-suited
to end of bench status. (Remarkably,
none of the three are playing in the NBA this year, just one year later.) Lin fit the desired profile: hungry, undervalued, a high quality teammate
with a great work ethic, and, at this stage of his career, ready to lead a
young bunch.
Plus, who was it on D’Antoni’s staff on those 2011-12
Knicks that worked endlessly with the pre-Linsanity Jeremy Lin, helping him
develop and stick when no one was paying any attention at all? None other than Kenny Atkinson, himself an
unknown NBA lifer. Aside from d’Antoni,
and perhaps inclusive of him, no one valued Lin’s potential more than Atkinson,
who has seen Linsanity up close, from the bench, and had helped, perhaps more
than anyone, enable it.
Conley indeed re-signed the Memphis, the Knicks traded for
Rose, Rondo replaced him in Chicago and Lin signed with Brooklyn after that
midnight visit, for $36 million over three years, with a player option for the
third year. As one of the initial free
agent signings, the contract received a great deal of play both for the Lin saga
as well as what seemed to be its very generous terms. But within days, the market exploded in
enormous signings, none more lucrative than Conley’s richest-ever $154 million
deal. Ultimately, Lin’s contract was
viewed as a bargain.
Lin fans and knowledgeable Net fans began dreaming of Lin
pick and rolling all night long with Lopez, the lone remaining star and an
almost perfect complement to Lin, right on down to the remarkable coincidence
of the franchise stars’ portmanteau of a name:
“Brook-Lin.” The pieces were
fitting together. Lin would be the
engine, a perfect showcase for his talents, with a near-guaranteed 30+ minutes,
a fitting star foil in Lopez, and a roster full of eager players, many of whom
– Bogan Bogdanovic, Sean Kilpatrick and Joe Harris most prominently – could
shoot the three, hopefully nearly as well as Lin’s Knick partner, Steve
Novak. Trevor Booker would anchor the
defense from the power forward slot, Thaddeus Young was traded for a first
round pick that turned into the promising though injury-prone rookie Caris
LeVert, and other young talent – notably Rondae Hollis-Jefferson -- would vie
for rotation time. Veterans Grevis
Vasquez and Randy Foye were picked up to back up Lin at the point and provide
stability to the young Nets, as well as power forward Luis Scola. As the roster came together, an almost
complete makeover, except for Lopez, from 2014-15, ESPN revised its estimate of
Net wins upward from 20 to 28.
They looked to be a team on the rise.
The Nets
Sigh. What else can
one say?
Lin fans are a resilient bunch. And we are surely being tested yet again.
The season started off extremely well for the Nets and
Lin. The team won two of their first
five games, against Indiana and Detroit, two playoff teams as of this writing,
and took Boston (another playoff team) and Milwaukee (just out) down to the
wire. Only a blowout to Chicago was
indicative of the “old Nets.”
Lin excelled in this opening stretch, which included a near
triple-double (21/9/9) in the home opening win versus Indiana. He averaged 15 ppg and 6 apg on 45% shooting,
while playing only 27 minutes per game.
The fewer minutes than anticipated were a function of the blowout loss
to the Bulls and his injury in the fifth game versus Detroit, when he played
only 15 minutes. On a per-36 basis, he
was averaging 20 ppg and 8 apg, clearly a stellar pace. And the eye test was convincing as well. The Nets functioned smoothly with Lin on the
court, his confidence was high and the team responded to his leadership. And
his defense was strong.
But then he was injured, pulling a left hamstring versus
Detroit. The Nets quickly announced that
Lin would sit two weeks and then be evaluated, and the two weeks came and went
without a word, ultimately stretching to five.
The Nets responded well initially, splitting the next four games
(beating weak Minnesota and Phoenix teams), but then the bottom dropped out,
with seven straight losses by an average margin of 19 points per loss. The Nets won two of the next six before Lin
returned, thereby going 4-13 in the 17 games he missed.
Lin returned on December 12, on a 20-minute per game
restriction (lasting three games), which Atkinson chose to deploy in the last
five minutes of each quarter. The Nets
played competitively against Houston, Orlando and Philadelphia, losing by
single digits in games that Lin fans would argue could have been won but for
the minutes restriction. (The Nets also
managed to beat the Lakers when Lin sat out with back pain during this
stretch.) A loss to tough Toronto was
followed by a cruel quirk in the NBA schedule that saw the Nets face the Cavs
and Warriors, NBA finalists last year, on successive nights, and the Nets lost
both (although they outplayed the Warriors handily in the first half.) And then Lin was in the midst of exploding
versus Charlotte, with 17 points in 22 minutes, when he injured his left
hamstring yet again.
The second Lin stretch was remarkably similar to the first.
Once again he was limited in minutes
played by the intentional restrictions, the blowout games and the final injury
game, averaging only 24 minutes in those seven games. But he averaged 13 ppg and 3 asp, shooting a
superb 49% from the field an improved 35% from the three. On a per-36, once again it added up to 20 and
8.
And he has sat since.
About a month into his rehab, the Nets announced that he had reinjured
the hamstring yet again, a third time, and would be out another 3-5 weeks. And just
before the All-Star break, they announced that Lin would return on February 24
against Denver.
In that time, the Nets have nosedived. It is worth mentioning that the intended
back-up point guard, Grevis Vasquez, played only three games before it was
clear that his injured ankle was far from ready for NBA action, and the Nets
were forced to cut him. Since then,
rookie Isaiah Whitehead and D-League vet Spencer Dinwiddie have largely played
the point, with some help from the aging Randy Foye and shooting guard Sean Kilpatrick. To say the Nets have suffered is a gross
understatement. They have played 26
games since his last game, the Lin-inspired win in Charlotte, and have lost –
wait for it – 25 of them. While their
record with Lin is nothing to shout about, at 3-9, a .250 won/loss percentage,
without him they are 6-38, or .136.
And thus the frustration.
Lin finally gets his opportunity, to run his own show, under the coach
that understands him best, with complementary teammates, and he has played just
12 out of 56 games to date. And while he
has played well, he has convinced none of his detractors, who point to his
inability to stay on the floor as a sign he does not belong there, and dismiss
his impressive stats as just another “small base.” Of course, even if he succeeded, these
critics would point out that his stats, even if sustained over time, were
inflated because the Nets had few other offensive options.
The stats are
good. Only twelve games of promise, but
what promise! Let’s compare his career
stats before Brooklyn with those 12 games in Brooklyn, on both a per-game and
per-36 minute basis.
Per
Game
|
MIN
|
FG%
|
3P%
|
FT%
|
REB
|
AST
|
STL
|
BLK
|
TOV
|
PTS
|
Career
|
26.8
|
0.432
|
0.346
|
0.803
|
2.8
|
4.4
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
2.4
|
11.7
|
Brooklyn
|
25.1
|
0.469
|
0.333
|
0.707
|
3.3
|
5.8
|
1.3
|
0.5
|
2.7
|
13.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Per-36 Min
|
MIN
|
FG%
|
3P%
|
FT%
|
REB
|
AST
|
STL
|
BLK
|
TOV
|
PTS
|
Career
|
26.7
|
0.432
|
0.346
|
0.803
|
3.7
|
5.9
|
1.6
|
0.5
|
3.2
|
15.7
|
Brooklyn
|
36.0
|
0.469
|
0.333
|
0.707
|
4.7
|
8.3
|
1.9
|
0.7
|
3.8
|
20.0
|
Despite playing fewer minutes per game, Lin has scored more
and shot better (overall), and upped his totals across the board. As mentioned, his per-36 stats approached All
Star levels at 20/8.
How else do you measure progress? Lin’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 20.0
would rank 14th among starting NBA point guards (if he was eligible). The PER, which is strictly a measure of
offensive prowess, seems to pass the smell test: the top five guards are Russell Westbrook,
Isiah Thomas, James Harden, Chris Paul and Stephen Curry. Can’t really argue with that, or with the
rest of the rankings, for that matter. Everyone seems to be ranked more or less
where they “should” be.
PLAYER EFFICIENCY RATING NBA STARTING POINT GUARDS
|
RANK
|
PLAYER
|
|
1
|
Westbrook
|
29.5
|
2
|
Thomas
|
27.7
|
3
|
Harden
|
27.7
|
4
|
Paul
|
27.3
|
5
|
Curry
|
24.0
|
6
|
Wall
|
23.1
|
7
|
Lowry
|
23.0
|
8
|
Lillard
|
22.2
|
9
|
Conley
|
22.1
|
10
|
Irving
|
21.7
|
11
|
Bledsoe
|
21.5
|
12
|
Walker
|
20.8
|
13
|
Hill
|
20.2
|
14
|
Lin
|
20.0
|
15
|
Teague
|
19.7
|
16
|
Dragic
|
19.4
|
17
|
Holiday
|
18.6
|
18
|
Schroder
|
16.6
|
19
|
Rose
|
16.4
|
20
|
Jackson
|
15.8
|
21
|
Payton
|
15.5
|
22
|
Williams
|
15.4
|
23
|
Russell
|
15.3
|
24
|
Collison
|
15.2
|
25
|
Rubio
|
15.2
|
26
|
Parker
|
13.9
|
27
|
McConnell
|
13.4
|
28
|
Rondo
|
11.4
|
29
|
Mudiay
|
10.3
|
30
|
Delladova
|
10.1
|
Of course, many people would see Lin as the outlier on the
list. His career PER is 15, and the 20.0
is based, of course, on only the 12 games.
“Let’s see where he ends up”, they would say. And Lin fans would accept that challenge.
Of course, Lin fans would take it further. Lin has played most of his games while still
getting back into playing shape, with the stop and start of reduced minutes,
with still-brand-new teammates and no semblance of a set rotation. If anything,
his chances of playing better are higher than playing worse.
In addition, many Lin fans decry Atkinson’s particular
choice of offense. For, much to the
surprise of just about everyone, Atkinson has chosen to go with the “motion”
offense, with the pick-and-roll as a secondary option rather than the focus.
This choice is consistent with the Marks/Atkinson plan to focus on “player
development,” because, with its emphasis on the spreading of opportunities, the
motion offense does give Atkinson an opportunity to see what his has with the
rest of the team. I’m certain he would argue that he needs Hollis-Jefferson,
Lavert, Kilpatrick and others to develop and he wants to accelerate that
progress. And the motion offense more often puts the ball in their hands. But there is little doubt that if the Nets
were playing to win flat-out, they would have installed a pick-and-roll-first
offense, and both Lin and Lopez would have benefited and excelled even more
than in the motion.
But as it is, even with the limitations Lin has faced, his
play to date is exactly what we would have predicted: based on PER, he is ranked outside the Top
Ten, in line with Dragic and Teague, and certainly justifying his starter role.
What is clear is that even with the herky-jerky start, he
is playing with greater consistency. One
way to measure this is to use basketball-reference.com’s “Game Score.” The website notes that Game Score was created
by John Hollinger to give a rough
measure of a player's productivity for a single game. Of the 12 games Lin has played so far,
three-quarters of them were “scored” above 10 and none below 5, the best of his
career in each category. Those games
where Lin gets off to a slow start and never clicks, or spends most of his time
standing in a corner as the fifth option, appear to be history. Being a starter has given him the confidence
to slow down and play his game, not worried that his initial performance will
dictate his ensuing minutes.
Game
Score
|
2011/12
|
2012/13
|
2013/14
|
2014/15
|
2015/16
|
2016/17
|
20+
|
19%
|
7%
|
4%
|
7%
|
4%
|
8%
|
10-19.9
|
54%
|
41%
|
39%
|
40%
|
32%
|
67%
|
5 - 9.9
|
8%
|
32%
|
24%
|
27%
|
29%
|
25%
|
<5
|
19%
|
20%
|
32%
|
25%
|
35%
|
0%
|
This series of articles has, as its central thesis, that
Lin, if given the chance, would prove himself to be a solid NBA starting point
guard – not a superstar, as perhaps a few believe, but certainly not simply a
role player/substitute, as many more appear to believe. I have argued that Lin is probably a 15/6
player (with upside, in the right system, to 18/8) as a starter, and that would
put him in the upper half of NBA starting guards.
But when you look at the body of his work thus far in his
career, and compare it – unadjusted in any way – with the players that are
currently in that “top half” category, it is clear that he is already a comparable player. It is hard to separate this group of eight players
– the next tier after the Elite 11 – on the basis of their current career
stats. And all of them, with the
exception of Jackson and Lin, have started at least 60% of their games, some
far more. And, unlike Lin, when they
have started, they have usually been the unquestioned point guard. Certainly at times they have had to share the
ball (Dragic and Bledsoe come to mind), but they have all played more pure
point than Lin. They have not had to
deal with some of the biggest usage-suckers on the NBA, no Melo, no Harden and
no Kobe.
Career
|
Age
|
%
Starts
|
MIN
|
FG%
|
3P%
|
FT%
|
REB
|
AST
|
STL
|
BLK
|
TOV
|
PTS
|
Holiday
|
27
|
85%
|
32.2
|
0.442
|
0.371
|
0.789
|
3.6
|
6.2
|
1.5
|
0.4
|
2.7
|
14.3
|
Dragic
|
30
|
62%
|
27.4
|
0.472
|
0.363
|
0.753
|
2.9
|
4.8
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
2.3
|
13.1
|
Bledsoe
|
27
|
60%
|
26.9
|
0.446
|
0.333
|
0.799
|
3.8
|
4.5
|
1.4
|
0.5
|
2.7
|
13.0
|
Collison
|
29
|
66%
|
29.6
|
0.469
|
0.379
|
0.852
|
2.6
|
4.8
|
1.1
|
0.1
|
2.1
|
12.7
|
Teague
|
28
|
77%
|
26.7
|
0.448
|
0.354
|
0.840
|
2.3
|
5.4
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
2.2
|
12.5
|
Jackson
|
26
|
49%
|
24.5
|
0.432
|
0.320
|
0.858
|
3.1
|
4.3
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
1.9
|
12.2
|
Lin
|
28
|
50%
|
26.7
|
0.433
|
0.345
|
0.800
|
2.8
|
4.4
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
2.4
|
11.8
|
Hill
|
30
|
61%
|
28.9
|
0.452
|
0.378
|
0.801
|
3.2
|
3.3
|
0.9
|
0.3
|
1.3
|
11.6
|
And if you put these stats on more equal footing, on a per-36 minute basis, they tighten even further. Lin and Holiday, just to pick a pair, become indistinguishable.
And the upside? I
point to the set of games I identified last year – the games Lin started and “had
the ball” – that is, games when Lin started and Melo, Harden and Kemba were
injured and did not play, and to them I have added the 12 Brooklyn games in
(even though he did not start in several of them solely due to the minutes
restriction). They point to a level of
performance that would move Lin up the list were he to achieve and sustain that
level as a starter in Brooklyn. There
are now 40 such games in his career, and Lin is an 18 ppg, 6.5 apg player with
excellent shooting percentages.
|
G
|
MIN
|
FG%
|
3FG%
|
FT%
|
REB
|
ASS
|
ST
|
TO
|
PTS
|
TOTAL
|
40
|
32
|
46%
|
40%
|
77%
|
3.5
|
6.5
|
1.3
|
3.8
|
17.7
|
And so we await the second “half” of the season, which is
actually only 26 games for the Nets. The
Nets are clearly a better team with Lin. They must show progress with his return, to
give free agents something to consider in the offseason. The Nets must attract a few more useful
parts, and they have the salary cap space to do it. They cannot rely on the draft, although over
this All Star break they managed to turn Bogan Bogdanovic into a late first
round pick in the next draft. The last
third of a season awaits them, beginning with a killer 8-game road trip (circus
time at the Barclay Center) but then a final 18 game stretch which features 12
opponents who are currently under .500.
There is an opportunity to finish strong and turn a few heads.
And so another chapter lies ahead in the strange and
unusual career of Jeremy Lin. Will he consistently
excel, earning his place with the group above – and rising within it? Or will he shrink in the role?
That chapter begins tonight.
********************************************
Here are links to the earlier parts of the sage:
Part I: The Strange
and Badly Misunderstood Career of Jeremy Lin
Part II: The Jeremy Lin Saga
Continues...JLin Strikes Back as a Hornet
