Our Annual (Analytically-Based) MLB Hall of Fame Predictions: Say Hello to a Deserving Trio

Here are BTRTN’s Annual Baseball Hall of Fame predictions!  The announcement will be made on January 18, a bit later than usual.

And without further ado, we predict that the Hall will welcome a trio of National Leaguers (by and large), Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines and Trevor Hoffman into the Class of 2017.  Each fell just short of the mark last year, and without a compelling first-ballot candidate in the mix, they should push through this year.  It should be noted that Raines is in his last year of eligibility, the first candidate to face that fate at the 10-year mark rather than the former 15-year cutoff.

Note:  we have made these predictions without peeking at the voting to date that is compiled annually by the Hall of Fame Vote Tracker, so this is a “clean” prediction.

Last year we did not do so well.  While we were perfect in the big picture, nailing Ken Griffey, Jr. and Mike Piazza as the inductees (and correctly calling that Bagwell, Raines and Hoffman would fall short), we generally undercalled the voting percentages for most of the holdovers.  We thought that, after aberrant years in 2014 and 2015 when voting soared to well over 8 votes per voter (and seven players were inducted), votes per voter would fall back to the 6-7 range (from 1990 to 2013, votes per voter ranged from 4.2 to 6.8).  But while that metric did fall a bit in 2016, it dropped only from 8.4 to 7.9.  That meant that collectively the candidates received almost 600 votes more than we expected, or about 1.5 per voter.

We do think votes per voter will fall again this year, with no legitimate first-ballot candidates in the mix to replace Junior Griffey last year.  We project that we will see 7.4 votes per voter.

This year there are 19 newcomers to the HOF ballot who join 15 holdovers for a field of 34.  This analysis will focus on answering three questions:  1) who will be elected to the Hall of Fame this year, 2) how many votes will everyone on the ballot receive, and 3) who should be in the Hall of Fame, regardless of how the voting goes?

To answer the first two questions, we have developed separate models for newcomers, second-year and three-year-plus candidates.  The first-year model basically relies on Wins Above Replacement value as the independent variable, while the holdover models rely primarily on prior voting history tempered by WAR (players with higher WARs tend to do better in Year 2, those with lower WARs tend to do worse).  PED-tainting is also a factor in the models. We are not ruled by the models; they get us within field goal range of our final predictions.  We then do some manual adjustments, in part to reconcile the individual vote projections with the overall vote projection, and also in individual cases to consider other factors such as outstanding postseason performances and nearing the end of the eligibility cutoff.

So, let’s break down all 29 players on the ballot:

·         As stated, there will be three new members of the Hall of Fame, and each has had to overcome some baggage.  Bagwell had a PED shadow, and this is his 7^th time on the ballot; Raines’ past included an early bout with cocaine addiction, and this is his last shot; and, in Hoffman’s case, HOF voters are still trying to figure out how to assess relievers, but they surely knew that Hoffman was not on a par with his contemporary, Mariano Rivera, particularly in the postseason, and this kept Hoffman out last year in his first ballot appearance.

·         A total of 15 players will not gain election but will surpass the 5% threshold for inclusion on next year’s ballot.  Curt Schilling will continue his climb, and come in 4^th, followed by Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina and the kings of PED, Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds.  We have been hearing that the writers might be softening on the PED era a bit, or at least for Clemens and Bonds, who were Hall-worthy before their PED years, so perhaps the notorious duo will make a larger jump.  (Their bump last year was less than the average of the other holdover candidates.)  Martinez and Mussina had the biggest increases last year, along with Fred McGriff.  Among the first-balloters, Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Jorge Posada and Vladimir Guerrero will survive, but only Rodriguez will garner significant support

·         That leaves 16 players who will miss the 5% cutoff, Sammy Sosa and 15 first-timers.  We thought Sosa would miss the cut last year but he squeaked by.  We don’t think he will survive again; he saw none of the “bump” that Clemens and Bonds (and the other holdovers) enjoyed.  The rest of the pack includes some very good players; Magglio Ordonez was an All-Star six times.  But the rest are head scratchers for HOF consideration…why does the Hall insist on loading up the ballot with clearly non-deserving players, including four (Orlando Cabrera, Casey Blake, Pat Burrell and Matt Stairs) who failed to make even one All-Star team?  How can you be considered for the HOF when you have never been selected as one of the top 60+ players in MLB in any year of your career?

So, here are my predictions for the January, 2017 Hall of Fame announcement.  The columns are:  WAR = Wins Above Replacement value, YOB = Years on Ballot, PED = steroid issue, LY% is the percentage a player received in last year’s vote, and then our projection in the last column.  That is, to be absolutely clear, we are predicting that Jeff Bagwell will receive 87% of the vote, Tim Raines 85%, and so on.

2017	WAR	YOB	PED	LY%	Final Proj.
Jeff Bagwell	79.6	7		71.6	87
Tim Raines	69.1	10		69.8	85
Trevor Hoffman	28.4	2		67.3	82
Curt Schilling	79.9	5		52.3	63
Edgar Martinez	68.3	8		43.4	53
Roger Clemens	140.3	5	1	45.2	52
Mike Mussina	83.0	4		43.0	52
Barry Bonds	162.4	5	1	44.3	51
Lee Smith	29.6	15		34.1	45
Ivan Rodriguez	68.4	1			30
Fred McGriff	52.4	8		20.9	26
Jeff Kent	55.2	4		16.6	20
Larry Walker	72.6	7		15.5	18
Manny Ramirez	69.2	1	1		15
Vladimir Guerrero	59.3	1			12
Gary Sheffield	60.3	3	1	11.6	11
Billy Wagner	28.1	2		10.5	11
Jorge Posada	42.7	1			11
Sammy Sosa	58.4	5	1	7.0	4
Edgar Renteria	32.1	1			4
Jason Varitek	24.3	1			3
Mike Cameron	46.5	1			2
J.D. Drew	44.9	1			2
Magglio Ordonez	38.5	1			1
Orlando Cabrera	21.4	1			1
Derrek Lee	34.3	1			0
Tim Wakefield	34.6	1			0
Melvin Mora	28.2	1			0
Carlos Guillen	27.7	1			0
Casey Blake	24.9	1			0
Pat Burrell	18.8	1			0
Freddy Sanchez	15.8	1			0
Arthur Rhoades	15.4	1			0
Matt Stairs	14.3	1			0
					7.41 per

Regardless of the projections and the voting, who should be in the Hall of Fame?  This analysis compares the current candidates to key statistics of three categories of comparable players:  the “Top Half” of all players at their position in the HOF (ranked by WAR), the “average” Hall of Famer at their position, and the “Bottom Half” of all players at their position in the HOF.  The “Bottom Half” is basically composed of either players who should NOT be in the Hall (the Ross Youngs type) or players who are deserving but tend to have been borderline selections.  In general, our ballot consists of candidates who are markedly better than the “Bottom Half” average.

Our ballot consists of the following 13 players (we don’t confine ourselves to the silly “Max of 10” rule):  the three projected inductees plus Ivan Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Jeff Bagwell, Fred McGriff, Larry Walker, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, Lee Smith and Billy Wagner.

Catchers

If you ignore the PED rumors, Ivan Rodriguez is a gimme, a clear HOF’er.  He has two things going for him: his longevity and his defense.  He was a good offensive catcher, but hardly a great one, as evidenced by his mere 106 OPS+.  His longevity is signaled by his accumulation of 2844 hits, unheard of for a catcher.  His 68 WAR is, as you can see from the chart below, is in line with the greatest to play the position, and makes him a lock for Halldom.  And much of that WAR is driven by exceptional defense (his dWAR is 29).

Jorge Posada was an extremely difficult call.  Viscerally, he feels like he belongs with the long list of Yankees from the modern era who won championships and earned Hall votes but ultimately fell short of induction -- great players like Bernie Williams, Thurman Munson, Graig Nettles and Ron Guidry – rather than be enshrined alongside (ultimately) Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera.  But his stats tell a different story.  Posada is simply one of the top offensive catchers of all time; statistically, he sits (squats?) squarely with the average HOF catcher, well above the bottom half.  He was no defensive whiz, but he did handle a staff that won five World Series.  We think he deserves it, though we don’t think the writers will agree, and certainly not this year.  Jorge is on our ballot.

Catchers	Avg.	Hits	HR	RBI	OPS+	WAR
Top Half	0.287	2052	307	1256	127	62
Average HOF	0.287	1798	214	1036	121	50
Bottom Half	0.287	1544	121	816	115	38
Ivan Rodriguez	0.296	2844	311	1332	106	68
Jorge Posada	0.273	1664	275	1065	121	43

First Basemen

Jeff Bagwell’s stats are extraordinary, basically in line with the stats of the top half of Hall of Fame first baseman, a heady group that includes legends like Lou Gehrig, Jimmy Foxx, Frank Thomas, Eddie Murray, Johnny Mize and Willie McCovey.  There is no question that he is a HOF’er and has been punished for the PED shadow for years. 

Fred McGriff has always been a very tough call for us, but we have convinced ourselves that he belongs in the HOF.  His home run and RBI totals alone make a strong case – right with the giants of the position.  And while his WAR and OPS+ are a little on the tepid side for first basemen, they are still better than those of the bottom half.  Fred makes our 2017 ballot.

First Basemen	Avg.	Hits	HR	RBI	OPS+	WAR
Top Half	0.296	2578	347	1580	152	82
Average HOF	0.291	2402	296	1434	142	66
Bottom Half	0.286	2210	239	1274	131	49
Jeff Bagwell	0.297	2314	449	1529	149	80
Fred McGriff	0.284	2490	493	1550	134	51

Second Basemen

Jeff Kent is the all-time leading home run hitter among second baseman, and is third in RBIs behind Rogers Hornsby and Napoleon Lajoie.  He was simply one of the greatest power-hitting second basemen ever and the greatest of modern times.  There is no question he deserves to be in the HOF, and he is on our ballot.

Second Basemen	Avg.	Hits	HR	RBI	OPS+	WAR
Top Half	0.314	2780	181	1259	132	90
Average HOF	0.298	2442	160	1089	120	69
Bottom Half	0.283	2103	139	920	107	48
Jeff Kent	0.290	2461	377	1518	123	55

Shortstops

Edgar Renteria will be forever known as a World Series Game 7 wunderkind, the author of not one but two game-winning, series-ending, series-winning hits, in 1997 with Florida and in 2014 with the Red Sox, neatly bookending a fine career.  His stats generally hold up with the bottom half of HOF second basemen, but his WAR and OPS+ are below that standard.  We had to think twice about him, but decided he falls a bit short.  It is a tough era to be a borderline case.

Shortstops	Avg.	Hits	HR	RBI	OPS+	WAR
Top Half	0.290	2617	172	1261	117	77
Average HOF	0.286	2320	113	1035	108	62
Bottom Half	0.282	1997	49	789	99	46
Edgar Renteria	0.286	2327	140	923	94	32

Third Basemen

There are no third basemen worth mentioning are on the ballot, unless you think Casey Blake (and his 25 WAR) is worthy of a few sentences.  We don’t.

Outfielders/Designated Hitters

Tim Raines is undervalued as a speedster; his 808 steals, and 85% success rate (highest among those with 300+ attempts) do not get incorporated well into the advanced stats.  The cocaine rap doesn’t help him either.  But Rock has a WAR of 65 and easily deserves to be in the HOF.

Larry Walker suffers from “Coors Field Syndrome,” with an otherworldly home OPS of 1.068 and a merely very good .865 on the road.  It has been noted in Walker’s defense that players generally do better at home than on the road (even if not quite to Walker’s extent.)  But his 73 WAR is already park-adjusted and his overall stats are pretty much on the mark of an average HOF outfielder.  Walker is on our ballot.

Vladimir Guerrero brings his monster stats to the ballot for the first time and if Walker is deserving, so is Guerrero.  Vladdy’s WAR is lower than Walker’s, but he hit many more homers and had nearly 200 more RBIs, and without the Coors effect.  He’s on our ballot, too.

Magglio Ordonez does not make it, though.  While his power stats are in line with the average HOF outfielder, his WAR and OPS+ trail the bottom halfers. 

Edgar Martinez gets dissed because he was mostly a full-time DH (68% of his games), but with an extremely healthy WAR of 68 and OPS+ of 147, he deserves to be in the HOF.  There are not enough DH’s at this point to compare him to, but in comparing him to the outfielders, you can see that his stats dominate those of the bottom half in every respect.  He’s on our ballot.

Outfielders/DHs	Avg.	Hits	HR	RBI	OPS+	WAR
Top Half	0.318	2932	314	1513	145	93
Average HOF	0.314	2566	240	1288	137	70
Bottom Half	0.309	2175	161	1047	127	46
Larry Walker	0.313	2160	383	1311	140	73
Tim Raines	0.294	2605	170	980	123	69
Vladimir Guerrero	0.318	2147	449	1496	140	59
Magglio Ordonez	0.309	2156	294	1236	125	39
Edgar Martinez	0.312	2247	309	1261	147	68

Starting Pitchers

Curt Schilling’s ERA+ is a sterling 127 and his WAR is a hefty 81.  And if you like postseason performances, his stats are phenomenal:  11-2 with a 2.23 ERA.  We’re not fans of his off the field, but he’s on our Hall of Fame ballot.

Mike Mussina, in our view, was a stronger candidate than Tom Glavine when they were both on the ballot together in 2014, each for the first time.  Mussina has a better ERA+, won-loss percentage and WAR than Glavine, but the votes for Glavine demonstrated the mystical power of the 300-win mark.  It was ludicrous that Glavine received 92% of the votes to Mussina’s 20%.  It is entirely possible that no one will ever win more than Moose’s total of 270 again.  Moose is on our ballot.

Starting Pitchers	W	W-L %	ERA+	IP	SO	WAR
Top Half	314	0.592	124	4735	2603	89
Average HOF	267	0.598	123	3998	2210	70
Bottom Half	221	0.605	122	3260	1817	50
Mike Mussina	270	0.638	123	3562	2813	83
Curt Schilling	216	0.597	127	3261	3116	81

Relief Pitchers

I could go on about relief pitchers for a while.  I’ll start with the chart below.  Here I compare the four HOF “pure” relievers(Gossage, Fingers, Sutter and Wilhelm) with the 13 relievers who reached 300 or more saves but were turned aside on the first ballot by HOF voters (none met the 5% threshold). 

Relief Pitchers	Saves	IP	ERA+	WHIP	WAR	Games	IP/G	Yr 1 Vote%
Average HOF (ex-Eck)*	335	1702	131	1.16	35	919	1.9	41%
Non-HOF 300+ Saves	334	1017	130	1.26	18	817	1.2	1%
Trevor Hoffman	601	1089	141	1.06	28	1035	1.1	67%
Billy Wagner	422	903	187	1.00	28	853	1.1	11%
Lee Smith	478	1289	132	1.26	30	1022	1.3	42%
* Gossage, Fingers, Sutter, Wilhelm

What is interesting is that both groups averaged around 335 saves and both had identical ERA+.  Three things distinguish the HOF quartet:  their lower WHIP (1.16 versus 1.26), WARs and, perhaps most revealing, their innings pitcher per game.  The HOF relievers were NOT one inning wonders, they averaged nearly two innings per outing.

Hall voters seemed to be saying that the one-inning wonders need to do much more than merely reach 300+ saves to warrant HOF status.  They want more saves (many more) and lower WHIPs than the two-inning legends.

Against that backdrop, let’s evaluate our three candidates.

Trevor Hoffman.  So you want more saves?  How about over 600?  Lower WHIP?  How is 1.06?  Hoffman received 67% of the vote last year, his first, so his accomplishments were noted.  He’s on our ballot.

Lee Smith is a trickier story.  Sure he has plenty of saves, at 478, but his WHIP is back with the ones who have been rejected, at 1.26.  Our view is, those are a ton of saves, his ERA+ is the same as the HOF’ers and his WAR is slightly better than Hoffman’s, so he is on our ballot.

Which brings us to Billy Wagner.  We have to confess that before Wagner was on the ballot last year, we would not have believed he was Hall-worthy.  But his statistics are incredible.  He has well over 400 saves and a WHIP that is equal to that of the hallowed Mariano Rivera, 1.00.  His WAR is the same as Hoffman’s.  The writers were not too impressed last year –he received only 11% of the votes – but we are.  He’s on our ballot, too.

The Others

As for the PED gang…nobody doubts the statistical HOF credentials of Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Sammy Sosa and Gary Sheffield.  But the steroids rap voids them all from consideration, in our view.

And for the rest…the others are fairly forgettable by Hall of Fame standards, with WARS between 14 and 47.  We are not going to devote any more time to making the case against them.

So, look for smiles from Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines and Trevor Hoffman, with many of the rest being content with upticks in their progress.