One week to go in this incredible
campaign and, on cue, the presidential is tightening, and control of the Senate is up for grabs.
BTRTN is on the record with our conviction that Hillary Clinton will win
the presidency (see our article yesterday for all that) and our final official “prediction” for all races will be published Monday night by 8 PM EST. For now, let’s dive in on the Snapshots with
six days and five hours to go before Dixville Notch weighs in. Full reports on the presidential race, all
the Senate races and our view of the House below.
Presidency
Hillary Clinton is in command. While there is evidence that Comey-Gate has
tightened the race a bit, she is not in peril.
But she does have to deliver the goods, and her vaunted ground game is
in full swing.
The race was tightening before
Comey-gate, as the last few weeks’ national polls demonstrate. Trump’s disastrous first half of October was
fading and the race had fallen back, even in the days before Comey released his
infamous letter, to the 4-6 point range that has characterized the very few
“quiet” periods when neither candidate was getting pilloried for one offense or
another.
|
PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: NATIONAL POLLS
|
||||||
|
Wk. Ending
|
Sep 24
|
Oct 1
|
Oct 8
|
Oct 15
|
Oct 24
|
Oct 31
|
|
Clinton
|
46.5
|
47.0
|
48.3
|
49.1
|
49.3
|
48.2
|
|
Trump
|
43.3
|
42.5
|
42.7
|
40.5
|
42.4
|
43.6
|
|
Other/NA
|
10.2
|
10.5
|
9.0
|
10.4
|
8.3
|
8.2
|
|
Margin
|
3.2
|
4.5
|
5.6
|
8.6
|
6.8
|
4.7
|
At the all-important state level
lies more evidence of a closer race. We
have moved Colorado from Solid to Lean for Clinton, puncturing a small hole in
her Solid Wall, which had comprised 272 Solids last week – two over the
required 270 to win – but is now back to 263.
But North Carolina has moved from a Toss-up to a Lean for Clinton. Both states are in the +4 range for Clinton
both pre- and post-Comey, and while we call that a Lean, it is awfully hard to
move the needle by that much at this stage.
All she needs is one of them to seal the deal.
We have also moved Toss-ups Ohio and
Arizona from Clinton to Trump. The
margins in all the Toss-Ups, which also include Florida, Nevada and Iowa (the
last a move from Lean R) are incredibly tight.
But Clinton does not need ANY of them to win.
Trump’s path to 270 is virtually
impossible at this point, barring the discovery of some “smoking gun” email
(which has not emerged in the massive investigation to date). He needs to hold onto to Utah and Georgia,
both of which any self-respecting GOP presidential candidate would have locked
up long ago. Then he has to sweep all
five Toss-ups, and finally somehow manage to take North Carolina and
Colorado.
So, of course, Trump is spending
some precious final weeks campaign time in, um, Washington, DC (for a hotel
opening) and Michigan. Go figure.
So, in our one-week-to-go look, our BTRTN Electoral College Snapshot #8 still has Clinton up 323-215.
|
PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: ELECTORAL COLLEGE
|
||
|
Electoral College
|
Oct 23
|
Oct 31
|
|
CLINTON - TOTAL
|
351
|
323
|
|
Clinton - Solid
|
272
|
263
|
|
Clinton - Lean
|
35
|
25
|
|
Clinton - Tossup
|
44
|
35
|
|
Trump - Tossup
|
7
|
41
|
|
Trump - Lean
|
83
|
38
|
|
Trump - Solid
|
97
|
136
|
|
TRUMP - TOTAL
|
187
|
215
|
|
|
|
|
|
Swing States (EC)
|
Latest Polls as of Oct 31
|
BTRTN Rating
|
|
Colorado (9)
|
Clinton +4
|
Lean D
|
|
N. Carolina (15)
|
Clinton +4
|
Lean D
|
|
Maine CD2 (1)
|
Clinton +3
|
Lean D
|
|
Florida (29)
|
Clinton +1
|
Toss-up D
|
|
Nevada (6)
|
Clinton +0
|
Toss-up D
|
|
Iowa (6)
|
Trump +0
|
Toss-up R
|
|
Ohio (18)
|
Trump +1
|
Toss-up R
|
|
Arizona (11)
|
Trump +1
|
Toss-up R
|
|
Utah (6)
|
Trump +3
|
Lean R
|
|
Georgia (16)
|
Trump +3
|
Lean R
|
The full 50-state rack-up is down at
the bottom, after we get through the rest.
SENATE
The fate of the Senate continues to
spin around five races that are virtual dead-heats. This BTRTN Senate Snapshot #7 has
the Dems up 51/49, but it simply could not be any closer. Marco Rubio has locked down Florida at his
point, giving the GOP another Solid, and the Indiana race has gotten much closer,
moving from a Lean D to a Toss-up D. We
will be up all night on Election night for these, and control of the Senate
might not be understood for days…or even into December for the Louisiana
run-off election. A Democrat is
currently in second in the open primary on Election Day, meaning that we might
have a two-party match-up in the December run-off…though the GOP candidate will
certainly be favored.
|
SENATE SNAPSHOT
|
||
|
Senate
|
October 22
|
October 31
|
|
DEM TOTAL
|
50 (+4)
|
51 (+5)
|
|
Dem Holdover
|
36
|
36
|
|
Dem Solid
|
11
|
11
|
|
Dem Lean
|
1
|
1
|
|
Dem Toss-up
|
2
|
3
|
|
GOP Toss-up
|
3
|
2
|
|
GOP Lean
|
1
|
0
|
|
GOP Solid
|
16
|
17
|
|
GOP Holdover
|
30
|
30
|
|
GOP TOTAL
|
50 (-4)
|
49 (-5)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Senate By State
|
Latest Polls as of Oct 31
|
BTRTN
|
|
CA,CO,CT,HI,IL,
MD, NY,OR,VT,WA, WI
|
|
Solid D
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
McGinty (D) +5
|
Lean D
|
|
Indiana
|
Bayh (D) +1
|
Toss-up D
|
|
Nevada
|
CortezMatso (D)+0
|
Toss-up D
|
|
New Hampshire
|
Hassan (D) +0
|
Toss-up D
|
|
N. Carolina
|
Burr (R) + 1
|
Toss-up R
|
|
Missouri
|
Blunt (R) + 1
|
Toss-up R
|
|
AK,AL,AZ,FL,GA,IA,KS,KY,
LA,ND,OH, SC,SD
|
|
Solid R
|
HOUSE
The Dems’ race to take over the House appears to
have stalled, as the Generic Ballot has them up only 3.5 points, a slight
pullback from last week. Thus our proprietary
BTRTN regression model is predicting only a 13 seat pick-up for the Dems, less than half of the 30 seats they need to turn the House blue.
|
HOUSE SNAPSHOT
|
||
|
House
|
As of Oct 22
|
As of Oct 31
|
|
Generic Ballot
|
Dem + 4.1
|
Dem + 3.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats
|
204 (+16)
|
201 (+13)
|
|
Republicans
|
231 (-16)
|
234 (-13)
|
Stay tuned as we head down to the
wire…look for our Election Day official forecast on Monday, November 8th
at 8:00 PM EST.
‘***************************************
|
ELECTORAL COLLEGE SNAPSHOT
|
|||||
|
|
2016 Electoral Votes
|
2012 Margin (D-R)
|
Latest 2016 Polls as of 10/30/16
|
BTRTN Prior Rating as of 10/24/16
|
BTRTN Current Rating as of 10/31/16
|
|
DC
|
3
|
84
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Hawaii
|
4
|
43
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Maryland
|
10
|
25
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Massachusetts
|
11
|
23
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Vermont
|
3
|
36
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
California
|
55
|
21
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
New York
|
29
|
27
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Washington
|
12
|
14
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Illinois
|
20
|
16
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
New Jersey
|
14
|
17
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Delaware
|
3
|
19
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
New Mexico
|
5
|
10
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Oregon
|
7
|
12
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Connecticut
|
7
|
18
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Rhode Island
|
4
|
27
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Maine (St. & CD1)
|
3
|
15
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Minnesota
|
10
|
8
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Virginia
|
13
|
3
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Michigan
|
16
|
10
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
New Hampshire
|
4
|
6
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
20
|
5
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Wisconsin
|
10
|
7
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Colorado
|
9
|
5
|
Clinton +4
|
Solid
|
LEAN
|
|
N. Carolina
|
15
|
-2
|
Clinton +4
|
Toss-up
|
LEAN
|
|
Maine CD2
|
1
|
|
Clinton +3
|
Lean
|
Lean
|
|
Florida
|
29
|
1
|
Clinton +1
|
Lean
|
TOSS-UP
|
|
Nevada
|
6
|
7
|
Clinton +0
|
Lean
|
TOSS-UP
|
|
Iowa
|
6
|
6
|
Trump +0
|
Lean
|
TOSS-UP
|
|
Ohio
|
18
|
2
|
Trump +1
|
Toss-up
|
Toss-up
|
|
Arizona
|
11
|
-11
|
Trump +1
|
Toss-up
|
Toss-up
|
|
Utah
|
6
|
-48
|
Trump +3
|
Toss-up
|
Toss-up
|
|
Georgia
|
16
|
-8
|
Trump +3
|
Lean
|
Lean
|
|
Alaska
|
3
|
-13
|
|
Lean
|
SOLID
|
|
Texas
|
38
|
-16
|
|
Lean
|
SOLID
|
|
S. Carolina
|
9
|
-11
|
|
Lean
|
SOLID
|
|
Missouri
|
10
|
-10
|
|
Solid
|
SOLID
|
|
Indiana
|
11
|
-11
|
|
Lean
|
SOLID
|
|
Mississippi
|
6
|
-12
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Montana
|
3
|
-14
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Louisiana
|
8
|
-17
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
S. Dakota
|
3
|
-18
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
N. Dakota
|
3
|
-20
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Tennessee
|
11
|
-21
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Kansas
|
6
|
-22
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Alabama
|
9
|
-22
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Nebraska
|
5
|
-23
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Kentucky
|
8
|
-23
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Arkansas
|
6
|
-24
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
W. Virginia
|
5
|
-27
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Idaho
|
4
|
-32
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Oklahoma
|
7
|
-34
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Wyoming
|
3
|
-41
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
SENATE SNAPSHOT
|
|||||||
|
State
|
Inc. Party
|
Incumbent
|
Dem
|
GOP
|
Poll Margin as of 10/30
|
BTRTN Rating as of
10/30
|
Hold/ Flip
|
|
Not running
|
|
46-54
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
California
|
D
|
Boxer
|
Harris
|
Sanchez (D)
|
|
Solid
D
|
Hold
|
|
New York
|
D
|
Schumer
|
Schumer
|
Long
|
|
Solid
D
|
Hold
|
|
Maryland
|
D
|
Mikulski *
|
Van Hollen
|
Szeliga
|
|
Solid
D
|
Hold
|
|
Hawaii
|
D
|
Schatz
|
Schatz
|
Carroll
|
|
Solid
D
|
Hold
|
|
Oregon
|
D
|
Wyden
|
Wyden
|
Callaghan
|
|
Solid
D
|
Hold
|
|
Vermont
|
D
|
Leahy
|
Leahy
|
Milne
|
|
Solid
D
|
Hold
|
|
Connecticut
|
D
|
Blumenthal
|
Blumenthal
|
Carter
|
|
Solid
D
|
Hold
|
|
Washington
|
D
|
Murray
|
Murray
|
Vance
|
|
Solid
D
|
Hold
|
|
Colorado
|
D
|
Bennet
|
Bennet
|
Glenn
|
|
Solid
D
|
Hold
|
|
Wisconsin
|
R
|
Johnson
|
Feingold
|
Johnson
|
|
Solid
D
|
Flip
|
|
Illinois
|
R
|
Kirk
|
Duckworth
|
Kirk
|
|
Solid
D
|
Flip
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
R
|
Toomey
|
McGinty
|
Toomey
|
D +
5
|
LEAN
D
|
Flip
|
|
Indiana
|
R
|
Coats
|
Bayh
|
Young
|
D +
1
|
TOSS-UP
D
|
Flip
|
|
Nevada
|
D
|
Reid *
|
Cortez Masto
|
Heck
|
D +
0
|
Toss-up
D
|
Hold
|
|
New Hamp.
|
R
|
Ayotte
|
Hassan
|
Ayotte
|
D +
0
|
Toss-up
D
|
Hold
|
|
N. Carolina
|
R
|
Burr
|
Ross
|
Burr
|
R +
1
|
Toss-up
R
|
Hold
|
|
Missouri
|
R
|
Blunt
|
Kander
|
Blunt
|
R +
1
|
Toss-up
R
|
Hold
|
|
Florida
|
R
|
Rubio
|
Murphy
|
Rubio
|
|
SOLID
R
|
Hold
|
|
Kentucky
|
R
|
Paul
|
Gray
|
Paul
|
|
Solid
R
|
Hold
|
|
Ohio
|
R
|
Portman
|
Strickland
|
Portman
|
|
Solid
R
|
Hold
|
|
Arkansas
|
R
|
Boozman
|
Eldridge
|
Boozman
|
|
Solid
R
|
Hold
|
|
Iowa
|
R
|
Grassley
|
Judge
|
Grassley
|
|
Solid
R
|
Hold
|
|
Georgia
|
R
|
Isakson
|
Barksdale
|
Isakson
|
|
Solid
R
|
Hold
|
|
Kansas
|
R
|
Moran
|
Wiesner
|
Moran
|
|
Solid
R
|
Hold
|
|
S. Carolina
|
R
|
Scott
|
Dixon
|
Scott
|
|
Solid
R
|
Hold
|
|
Arizona
|
R
|
McCain
|
Kirkpatrick
|
McCain
|
|
Solid
R
|
Hold
|
|
Utah
|
R
|
Lee
|
Snow
|
Lee
|
|
Solid
R
|
Hold
|
|
N. Dakota
|
R
|
Hoeven
|
Grassheim
|
Hoeven
|
|
Solid
R
|
Hold
|
|
Oklahoma
|
R
|
Lankford
|
Workman
|
Lankford
|
|
Solid
R
|
Hold
|
|
S. Dakota
|
R
|
Thune
|
Williams
|
Thune
|
|
Solid
R
|
Hold
|
|
Alabama
|
R
|
Shelby
|
Crumpton
|
Shelby
|
|
Solid
R
|
Hold
|
|
Alaska
|
R
|
Murkowski
|
Metcalfe
|
Murkowski
|
|
Solid
R
|
Hold
|
|
Idaho
|
R
|
Crapo
|
Sturgill
|
Crapo
|
|
Solid
R
|
Hold
|
|
Louisiana
|
R
|
Vitter
|
24 cand's.
|
runoff Dec 3
|
|
Solid
R
|
Hold
|
No comments:
Post a Comment
Leave a comment