With two weeks to go, Hillary
Clinton continues to hold a commanding lead in this Electoral College rack-up,
351/187 for the third consecutive week.
But there once again has been some modest shifting in several states,
and the consequence is that she now has 272 Solids, which is, of course, two
more than she needs for the presidency.
As a cushion, she continues to lead in states that comprise another 79
electoral votes, some by thin margins.
To say that Donald Trump needs a “Hail Mary” win this election is, at
this point, overstating the odds. Closer
to the mark might be the phrase with which my mother’s priest used to end confessions: he really needs “three Hail Mary’s twice.”
Trump seems to be tiring on the
road, bored with screaming about rigged elections and defending himself against
sexual assault charges from what is now 11 women. Clinton has moved on, pushing to sweep the
swing states and tout Democratic candidates in tight races. Her confident and superb performance at
Debate #3 is now translating to a smooth stage persona, not quite riveting or
moving, but certainly in command of her good material.
The polls have flattened a bit, but
she still has an astonishing 7-point margin.
Recall that in 2012, Obama and Romney see-sawed back and forth in the
national polls up to Election Day, and Obama had a day-before lead of less than
a point (although he had a somewhat more material grip on the swing states).
|
PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: NATIONAL POLLS
|
||||||
|
Week Ending
|
Sep 17
|
Sep 24
|
Oct 1
|
Oct 8
|
Oct 15
|
Oct 23
|
|
Clinton
|
45.0
|
46.5
|
47.0
|
48.3
|
49.1
|
48.6
|
|
Trump
|
43.2
|
43.3
|
42.5
|
42.7
|
40.5
|
41.7
|
|
Other/NA
|
11.8
|
10.2
|
10.5
|
9.0
|
10.4
|
10.7
|
|
Margin
|
1.8
|
3.2
|
4.5
|
5.6
|
8.6
|
6.9
|
The big change of the week was
flipping Colorado from Lean to Solid, pushing Hillary’s Solids over the 270
mark. And overall, our BTRTN
Electoral College Snapshot #8 still has Clinton up 351-187.
Despite an incredible well of
fodder, we have not had a chance to write any song parodies in this campaign
season, but almost exactly four years ago we wrote one to the tune of Simon
& Garfunkel’s classic, “I Am a Rock (I Am An Island).” The parody line went: “I Am Barack, I Need Ohio.” (It was a pretty good one, here is a link if
you want to see the whole song: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2012/10/song-parody-i-am-barack-i-need-ohio.html.)
Back then, everyone thought Obama did need Ohio, and, like every
presidential winner save one (Kennedy in 1960) since 1944, he did take it. But the fact is, he could have lost Ohio and
still won. And that is the case with
Hillary Clinton. It is darn close in
Ohio, perhaps the closest state race right now, but she can win without it, and
win easily. Ohio’s day as a bellwether
state are over.
For Trump to win….should we bother
going through this? OK, he needs to
defend his own red states (he has a 5-point-or-less lead in seven states), flip
all of the Toss-ups and Leans that Clinton is leading (another five states)
and, for good measure, then flip a Solid Blue.
Just for perspective, there have been 37 polls in those five Clinton
Lean/Toss-up states (Arizona, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio) since
October 1, and Clinton has led in 31 of them and tied two. And in the Solid blue states, she has led
in 181 out of 183 polls since August 1. Flipping all of these -- at this point, after three debates and with early voting well underway -- this is simply not happening.
One last item worthy of note is
Utah, which has suddenly turned into a close three-way race. No, it's not Gary “What is Aleppo?” Johnson making a stand, but rather a conservative Independent named Evan McMullin who
is running neck and neck and neck with Trump and Clinton (roughly 30/30/26). McMullin is a former CIA operative, Wharton
MBA and House Staffer – and a Mormom in a state that went for Romney by +48 in
2012, and appears to detest both Trump and Clinton.
|
PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: ELECTORAL COLLEGE
|
||
|
Electoral College
|
Oct 16
|
Oct 23
|
|
CLINTON - TOTAL
|
351
|
351
|
|
Clinton - Solid
|
263
|
272
|
|
Clinton - Lean
|
59
|
35
|
|
Clinton - Tossup
|
29
|
44
|
|
Trump - Tossup
|
1
|
7
|
|
Trump - Lean
|
93
|
83
|
|
Trump - Solid
|
93
|
97
|
|
TRUMP - TOTAL
|
187
|
187
|
|
|
|
|
|
Swing States (EC)
|
Latest Polls
as of Oct 9
|
BTRTN Rating
|
|
Nevada (6)
|
Clinton +5
|
Lean D
|
|
Florida (29)
|
Clinton +4
|
Lean D
|
|
N. Carolina (15)
|
Clinton +2
|
Toss-up D
|
|
Ohio (18)
|
Clinton +1
|
Toss-up D
|
|
Arizona (11)
|
Clinton +0
|
Toss-up D
|
|
Utah (6)
|
Trump +1
|
Toss-up R
|
|
Alaska (3)
|
Trump +3
|
Lean R
|
|
Texas (38)
|
Trump +3
|
Lean R
|
|
Georgia (16)
|
Trump +3
|
Lean R
|
|
S. Carolina (9)
|
Trump +4
|
Lean R
|
|
Iowa (6)
|
Trump +4
|
Lean R
|
|
Indiana (11)
|
Trump +5
|
Lean R
|
‘***************************
Here is the full 50-state
Snapshot. Note that Maine is split
(hence the asterisk), with 3 Solid electoral votes for Clinton and one Toss-up
R for Trump (Maine CD 2). Changed
ratings are in CAPS.
|
ELECTORAL COLLEGE SNAPSHOT
|
|||||
|
|
2016 Electoral Votes
|
2012 Margin (D-R)
|
Latest 2016 Polls as
of 10/23/16
|
BTRTN Prior Rating as of 10/16/16
|
BTRTN Current Rating as of 10/23/16
|
|
DC
|
3
|
84
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Hawaii
|
4
|
43
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Maryland
|
10
|
25
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Massachusetts
|
11
|
23
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Vermont
|
3
|
36
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
California
|
55
|
21
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
New York
|
29
|
27
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Washington
|
12
|
14
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Illinois
|
20
|
16
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
New Jersey
|
14
|
17
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Delaware
|
3
|
19
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
New Mexico
|
5
|
10
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Oregon
|
7
|
12
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Connecticut
|
7
|
18
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Rhode Island
|
4
|
27
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Maine
|
4
|
15
|
|
Solid*
|
Solid*
|
|
Minnesota
|
10
|
8
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Virginia
|
13
|
3
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Michigan
|
16
|
10
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
New Hampshire
|
4
|
6
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
20
|
5
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Wisconsin
|
10
|
7
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Colorado
|
9
|
5
|
|
Lean
|
SOLID
|
|
Nevada
|
6
|
7
|
Clinton +5
|
Lean
|
Lean
|
|
Florida
|
29
|
1
|
Clinton +4
|
Lean
|
Lean
|
|
N. Carolina
|
15
|
-2
|
Clinton +2
|
Lean
|
TOSS-UP
|
|
Ohio
|
18
|
2
|
Clinton +1
|
Toss-up
|
Toss-up
|
|
Arizona
|
11
|
-11
|
Clinton +0
|
Toss-up
|
Toss-up
|
|
Utah
|
6
|
-48
|
Trump +1
|
Solid
|
Toss-up
|
|
Alaska
|
3
|
-13
|
Trump +3
|
Lean
|
Lean
|
|
Texas
|
38
|
-16
|
Trump +3
|
Lean
|
Lean
|
|
Georgia
|
16
|
-8
|
Trump +3
|
Lean
|
Lean
|
|
S. Carolina
|
9
|
-11
|
Trump +4
|
Lean
|
Lean
|
|
Iowa
|
6
|
6
|
Trump +4
|
Lean
|
Lean
|
|
Indiana
|
11
|
-11
|
Trump +5
|
Lean
|
Lean
|
|
Missouri
|
10
|
-10
|
|
Lean
|
SOLID
|
|
Mississippi
|
6
|
-12
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Montana
|
3
|
-14
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Louisiana
|
8
|
-17
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
S. Dakota
|
3
|
-18
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
N. Dakota
|
3
|
-20
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Tennessee
|
11
|
-21
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Kansas
|
6
|
-22
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Alabama
|
9
|
-22
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Nebraska
|
5
|
-23
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Kentucky
|
8
|
-23
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Arkansas
|
6
|
-24
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
W. Virginia
|
5
|
-27
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Idaho
|
4
|
-32
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Oklahoma
|
7
|
-34
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Wyoming
|
3
|
-41
|
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
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