This was another incredibly strange
week in the annals of presidential races, to say the least. If nothing else, we are proving the wisdom of
modern campaign management, as Donald Trump continues to violate almost every
rule and, by all objective measures, is paying the price. This is a year that the White House could
have been ripe for the taking for the GOP, on the heels of eight years of
Democratic control and a candidate with clear baggage. (Only once since FDR – that’s 71 years -- has
a party controlled the White House for more than two terms, the Reagan/Bush 41
era from 1981-1993.) But that GOP opportunity
is being squandered by a series of bizarre unforced errors by Trump, and a strong
performance by Hillary Clinton when it matters most.
Clinton won the debate, hands
down. There have been four post-debate
scientific polls and they each tell the same story, albeit in somewhat
different orders of magnitude. But
clearly it was an overwhelming rout, by any standard, on average by 24 points. (Trump is fond of unscientific online polls
conducted by conservative websites. Is
it any surprise that Drudge Report readers thought Trump won?)
Percentage of debate watchers who thought each candidate won
|
|||
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Margin
|
|
Average
|
55
|
31
|
24
|
PPP
|
51
|
40
|
11
|
CNN
|
62
|
27
|
35
|
You Gov
|
57
|
30
|
27
|
Politico/Morning Consult
|
49
|
26
|
23
|
Trump has shown absolutely no
facility for learning from his own mistakes.
(That could be because he does not feel he makes them.) There is an amazing echo in his post-debate
performance from his post-convention performance, when his extended hissy-fit
with the Kahn family dominated the news cycle for a full week. And now, Trump is again keeping the focus on
his running battle with another sympathetic figure, former Miss Universe Alicia
Machado. Hillary Clinton set a marvelous
trap with the Machado story at the debate, and it has succeeded beyond her
wildest dreams, a gift that keeps on giving.
Why Donald Trump, with less than 40 days to go (and with early voting
already begun), chose to expend several of those precious days on a losing
issue is beyond me. And his unhinged
dead-of-night Twitter rant against Machado was perhaps a bigger story than the
insults themselves.
I am feeling pretty good about
this paragraph from our post just 14 days ago, at the nadir of Clinton’s
campaign, which was entitled “Why Hillary Will Win.”
And to that point,
Donald Trump, while improving as a candidate, is hardly reliable, and it is not
difficult to imagine more controversy ahead. And apart from his motor
mouth, any number of issues could move front burner again, notably his taxes,
charitable giving (or lack thereof), the outlandish math of his economic
proposals, his racist and misogynist history, Trump U, his flip-flopping on
immigration, his lies about, well, everything. Need I go on?
I would say that, off that list, the
debate set off the tax and misogynist issues to tremendous effect. And The New York Times’ piece on Trump’s $915
million tax-loss carry forward has continued with the spotlight on the taxes.
But did winning the debates help
Clinton with her standing in the election?
Actually, Clinton started reversing the momentum before the debates,
from that low point when her national lead dipped below two points during the
week ending September 17. Her lead
increased to 3 points in the week after the low point and then surged to 4.5
this past week, the week of the debate.
Week Ending
|
Aug 13
|
Aug 20
|
Aug 27
|
Sep 3
|
Sep 10
|
Sep 17
|
Sep 24
|
Oct 1
|
Clinton
|
46.7
|
45.2
|
46.5
|
45.8
|
46.2
|
45.0
|
46.5
|
47.0
|
Trump
|
39.3
|
39.0
|
40.2
|
41.8
|
42.8
|
43.2
|
43.3
|
42.5
|
Other/NA
|
14.0
|
15.8
|
13.3
|
12.3
|
11.0
|
11.8
|
10.2
|
10.5
|
Margin
|
7.3
|
6.2
|
6.3
|
4.0
|
3.4
|
1.8
|
3.2
|
4.5
|
One trend worth noting in the above
charts is the steadily falling “Other/NA” column, which has dropped from the
15-16% range to the 10-11% range. I
suspect it will fall further. We at
BTRTN have tended to ignore the “four way” polls that include Gary Johnson and
Jill Stein because they tend to exaggerate their support. Voters tend to make more serious choices as
Election Day approaches. Johnson has
received notoriety only for two enormous gaffes, not knowing what “Aleppo” is
and not being able to name a world leader he admired (echoing Sarah Palin’s inability
to name a newspaper she read). I suspect
the downward trend will continue.
But how is the Clinton rebound faring,
where it really matters? Clinton is
doing well there, too…overall, Clinton has gained about +3 points in
post-debate swing state polling.
And thus, our latest BTRTN
Electoral College Snapshot has Clinton up 322-216, with recent polling flipping
both Florida and Nevada into her column, which accounts for the
change from the 287-251 count in our last Snapshot two weeks ago. Two other states remained Blue but moved into
the Solid category for Clinton, Michigan and New Hampshire. Pennsylvania has moved the other way from two
weeks ago, when it was Solid, but it actually passed through a Toss-up phase
before U—turning after the debate into a Lean.
It isn’t all bad news for
Trump. Recent polling has pushed Texas
and Mississippi into Solid for him, but of course that is where they always
should have been.
But the race may be even more
favorable to Clinton than these results show.
There has been no post-debate polling in a number of battleground states
that are in the red column – Ohio, South Carolina, Iowa, Georgia and South
Carolina. If you tack on that same +3
that Clinton saw in swing states that have new polls, that would flip Ohio and
perhaps even Arizona.
PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: ELECTORAL COLLEGE
|
||
Electoral College
|
September 19
|
October 3
|
CLINTON - TOTAL
|
287
|
322
|
Clinton - Solid
|
233
|
233
|
Clinton - Lean
|
35
|
35
|
Clinton - Tossup
|
19
|
54
|
Trump - Tossup
|
86
|
29
|
Trump - Lean
|
54
|
32
|
Trump - Solid
|
111
|
155
|
TRUMP - TOTAL
|
251
|
216
|
Swing States (EC)
|
Latest Polls
as of Oct 3
|
BTRTN Rating
|
Nevada (6)
|
Clinton +6
|
Lean D
|
Colorado (9)
|
Clinton +5
|
Lean D
|
Pennsylvania (20)
|
Clinton +4
|
Lean D
|
N. Carolina (15)
|
Clinton +4
|
Toss-up D
|
Florida (29)
|
Clinton +3
|
Toss-up D
|
Wisconsin (10)
|
Clinton +2
|
Toss-up D
|
Ohio (18)
|
Trump +1
|
Toss-up R
|
Arizona (11)
|
Trump +3
|
Toss-up R
|
S. Carolina (9)
|
Trump +4
|
Lean R
|
Georgia (16)
|
Trump +5
|
Lean R
|
Iowa (6)
|
Trump +5
|
Lean R
|
‘*******************************
Here is the 50-state Snapshot. Note that one Maine electoral vote is in the Lean
GOP camp, while the other three are Solid Blue.
Rating changes are noted in CAPS in the last column.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE SNAPSHOT
|
|||||
2016 Electoral Votes
|
2012 Margin (D-R)
|
Latest 2016 Polls as
of 10/1/16
|
BTRTN Rating as of 9/19
|
BTRTN Current Rating
|
|
DC
|
3
|
84
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Hawaii
|
4
|
43
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Maryland
|
10
|
25
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Massachusetts
|
11
|
23
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Vermont
|
3
|
36
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
California
|
55
|
21
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
New York
|
29
|
27
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Washington
|
12
|
14
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Illinois
|
20
|
16
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
New Jersey
|
14
|
17
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Delaware
|
3
|
19
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
New Mexico
|
5
|
10
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Oregon
|
7
|
12
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Connecticut
|
7
|
18
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Rhode Island
|
4
|
27
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Maine
|
4
|
15
|
Solid*
|
Solid*
|
|
Minnesota
|
10
|
8
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Virginia
|
13
|
3
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Michigan
|
16
|
10
|
Lean
|
SOLID
|
|
New Hampshire
|
4
|
6
|
Toss-up
|
SOLID
|
|
Nevada
|
6
|
7
|
Clinton +6
|
Toss-up
|
LEAN
|
Colorado
|
9
|
5
|
Clinton +5
|
Lean
|
Lean
|
Pennsylvania
|
20
|
5
|
Clinton +4
|
Solid
|
LEAN
|
N. Carolina
|
15
|
-2
|
Clinton +4
|
Toss-up
|
Toss-up
|
Florida
|
29
|
1
|
Clinton +3
|
Toss-up
|
TOSS-UP
|
Wisconsin
|
10
|
7
|
Clinton +2
|
Lean
|
TOSS-UP
|
Ohio
|
18
|
2
|
Trump +1
|
Toss-up
|
Toss-up
|
Arizona
|
11
|
-11
|
Trump +3
|
Toss-up
|
Toss-up
|
S. Carolina
|
9
|
-11
|
Trump +4
|
Lean
|
Lean
|
Georgia
|
16
|
-8
|
Trump +5
|
Toss-up
|
LEAN
|
Iowa
|
6
|
6
|
Trump +5
|
Lean
|
Lean
|
Missouri
|
10
|
-10
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Mississippi
|
6
|
-12
|
Toss-up
|
SOLID
|
|
Indiana
|
11
|
-11
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Alaska
|
3
|
-13
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Montana
|
3
|
-14
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Texas
|
38
|
-16
|
Lean
|
SOLID
|
|
Utah
|
6
|
-48
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Louisiana
|
8
|
-17
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
S. Dakota
|
3
|
-18
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
N. Dakota
|
3
|
-20
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Tennessee
|
11
|
-21
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Kansas
|
6
|
-22
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Alabama
|
9
|
-22
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Nebraska
|
5
|
-23
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Kentucky
|
8
|
-23
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Arkansas
|
6
|
-24
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
W. Virginia
|
5
|
-27
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Idaho
|
4
|
-32
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Oklahoma
|
7
|
-34
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
Wyoming
|
3
|
-41
|
Solid
|
Solid
|
|
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