BTRTN Snapshot: GOP Improves Position in Senate and House Races

Tom sneaks in a Senate and House Snapshot update to kill time in the run-up to the Big Debate.

Both the Senate and the House races have moved somewhat rightward over the last month.  The Senate has moved by just enough to tip the BTRTN Snapshot in favor of the GOP, while the House now sees a lesser Dem pick-up than a month ago.

SENATE

The race to control the Senate is at a razor thin margin, with nine races “in play” among the 34 elections.  As of this moment, the BTRTN Senate Snapshot has the GOP retaining control of the Senate, regardless of who wins the presidential election, by a 51-49 margin. 

The nine races in play break down like this:

·         There are Democrat Lean races, in Wisconsin, which is a near Solid, Indiana and Illinois.  The Dem candidates, Russ Feingold, Evan Bayh and Tammy Duckworth, respectively, all have leads in the 4-8 point range and have led their races fairly consistently.  All three are “flips” where the current office-holder is Republican.

·         There are two GOP Lean races, Florida (with Marco Rubio) and Nevada (Joe Heck).  Rubio is a near Solid at this point, and Heck is moving in that direction.  Nevada would be a flip of Minority Leader Harry Reid’s seat (Reid is retiring).

·         And that leaves the four toss-ups:  Pennsylvania, which is ever-so-slightly tilting Blue, and North Carolina, New Hampshire and Missouri, which all slightly favor the GOP candidate.

Since our last view on August 28, only one state has shifted from one party to the other:  New Hampshire, where incumbent Kelly Ayotte has moved ahead in her race with Maggie Hassan.  We have also changed the BTRTN rating on four other states:  Pennsylvania (Lean D to Toss-up D), Nevada (Toss-up R to Lean R), Ohio (Lean R to Solid R) and North Carolina (Lean R to Toss-up R), the only one of the five changes that moved leftward, that is, in the Democrat’s direction.  North Carolina has become an utterly crucial battleground state.

For the Dems to regain control of the Senate, they have to win two of the four toss-up states, assuming everyone holds their “Leans” and Hillary Clinton wins the White House.

SENATE SNAPSHOT
Senate	August 28	September 25
DEM TOTAL	50 (+4)	49 (+3)
Dem Holdover	36	36
Dem Solid	9	9
Dem Lean	5	3
Dem Toss-up	0	1
GOP Toss-up	2	3
GOP Lean	3	2
GOP Solid	15	16
GOP Holdover	30	30
GOP TOTAL	50 (-4)	51 (-4)
Senate By State	Latest Polls                   as of Aug 28	BTRTN
CA,CO,CT,HI,MD,     NY,OR,VT,WA		Solid D
Wisconsin	Feingold (D) + 8	Lean D
Indiana	Bayh (D) + 4	Lean D
Illinois	Duckworth (D) + 4	Lean D
Pennsylvania	McGinty (D) + 0.3	Toss-up D
North Carolina	Burr (R) + 1	Toss-up R
New Hampshire	Ayotte (R) + 2	Toss-up R
Missouri	Blunt (R) + 3	Toss-up R
Nevada	Heck (R) + 4	Lean R
Florida	Rubio (R) + 6	Lean R
AK,AL,AZ,GA,IA,KS,KY, LA,ND,OH, SC,SD		Solid R

HOUSE

The House race has also drifted rightward, using the Generic Ballot and the BTRTN proprietary regression model.  The Dems lead in the Generic Ballot has fallen from 6.1 points to 3.6 points, and thus the model is predicting only a 14 seat pick-up for the Dems, leaving the Dems still considerably in the minority by a 233/202 margin.

HOUSE SNAPSHOT
House	As of Aug 29	As of Sep 25
Generic Ballot	Dem + 6.1	Dem + 3.6
Democrats	210 (+22)	202 (+14)
Republicans	225 (-22)	233 (-14)

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Below are all of the Senate races.  In the BTRTN Rating column, BOLD indicates a change in the rating.  As stated, all five changes except North Carolina have been in the GOP's direction.

SENATE SNAPSHOT
State	Inc. Party	Incumbent	Dem	GOP	BTRTN  Rating as of 9/25	Hold/    Flip
Not running		46-54
California	D	Boxer	Harris	Sanchez (D)	Solid D	Hold
New York	D	Schumer	Schumer	Long	Solid D	Hold
Maryland	D	Mikulski *	Van Hollen	Szeliga	Solid D	Hold
Hawaii	D	Schatz	Schatz	Carroll	Solid D	Hold
Oregon	D	Wyden	Wyden	Callaghan	Solid D	Hold
Vermont	D	Leahy	Leahy	Milne	Solid D	Hold
Connecticut	D	Blumenthal	Blumenthal	Carter	Solid D	Hold
Washington	D	Murray	Murray	Vance	Solid D	Hold
Colorado	D	Bennet	Bennet	Glenn	Solid D	Hold
Wisconsin	R	Johnson	Feingold	Johnson	Lean D	Flip
Indiana	R	Coats	Bayh	Young	Lean D	Flip
Illinois	R	Kirk	Duckworth	Kirk	Lean D	Flip
Pennsylvania	R	Toomey	McGinty	Toomey	TOSS-UP D	Flip
North Carolina	R	Burr	Ross	Burr	TOSS-UP R	Hold
Missouri	R	Blunt	Kander	Blunt	Toss-up R	Hold
New Hamp.	R	Ayotte	Hassan	Ayotte	TOSS-UP R	Hold
Nevada	D	Reid *	Cortez Masto	Heck	LEAN R	Flip
Florida	R	Rubio	(Murphy)	Rubio	Lean R	Hold
Kentucky	R	Paul	Gray	Paul	Solid R	Hold
Ohio	R	Portman	Strickland	Portman	SOLID R	Hold
Arkansas	R	Boozman	Eldridge	Boozman	Solid R	Hold
Iowa	R	Grassley	Judge	Grassley	Solid R	Hold
Georgia	R	Isakson	Barksdale	Isakson	Solid R	Hold
Kansas	R	Moran	Wiesner	Moran	Solid R	Hold
S. Carolina	R	Scott	Dixon	Scott	Solid R	Hold
Arizona	R	McCain	Kirkpatrick	McCain	Solid R	Hold
Utah	R	Lee	Snow	Lee	Solid R	Hold
North Dakota	R	Hoeven	Grassheim	Hoeven	Solid R	Hold
Oklahoma	R	Lankford	Workman	Lankford	Solid R	Hold
South Dakota	R	Thune	Williams	Thune	Solid R	Hold
Alabama	R	Shelby	Crumpton	Shelby	Solid R	Hold
Alaska	R	Murkowski	TBD	Murkowski	Solid R	Hold
Idaho	R	Crapo	Sturgill	Crapo	Solid R	Hold
Louisiana	R	Vitter	24 candidates	Runoff  Dec.	Solid R	Hold