Tom is back with a look at some numbers, the Trump "convention bounce"...
We have enough information to assess the “convention bounce”
for Donald Trump, and the answer is: just under 4 points, a little less than the 5-point norm for a “challenger.” We compared the three polls (Economist, CBS
and CNN) that were taken over the weekend between the GOP and Democratic
conventions with their pre-GOP convention counterparts, and found the following:
|
Head-to-Head
|
Pre-GOP Convention
|
Post-GOP Convention
|
Change
|
|
Clinton
|
44.7
|
45.0
|
0.3
|
|
Trump
|
41.0
|
44.7
|
3.7
|
|
N/A
|
14.3
|
10.3
|
-4.0
|
|
Margin
|
3.7
|
0.3
|
-3.3
|
What is interesting about these results is that the 3.7-point gain by Trump did not come at the expense of Hillary Clinton, who held
ground. Rather, Trump appeared to win
over some uncommitteds.
Trump is generally receiving low marks for his convention,
with loads of black marks, from Melania Trump’s plagiarism of Michelle Obama; a
slew of D-List celebrities including Scott Baio and Natalie Gulbis; the lack of
any entertainment value whatsoever from a man who promised the same, and Ted
Cruz’s very prime-time display of disunity.
The only theory for the positive bounce that makes sense is that some undecideds were quite
taken with the Trump kids, who performed well, and Trump himself, who, in a scripted speech complete with teleprompters, did a marginally passable imitation of an actual candidate. But note again that,
despite four days of relentless assaults, Hillary Clinton’s numbers were
unchanged.
Keep in mind that these polls preceded the highly-acclaimed Democratic Convention. I am quite certain – and will be back in a
few days with the analytics once enough polls come in – that Hillary will be
rewarded with a serious bump for her efforts.
The DemCon was an amazing show, full of A-List politicians at the top of
their rhetorical games, the Murderer’s Row of Barack Obama, Bill Clinton,
Michael Bloomberg, Joe Biden; strong endorsements from the leaders of the
disaffected left-wing, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren; the remarkable
Michelle Obama; and memorable moments from unexpected sources, most notably rising
star Senator Cory Booker, General John Allen, activist Anastasia Somoza and the
indomitable Khizr Khan.
“Indomitable” literally means “impossible to subdue or
defeat,” and yet Donald Trump is now attempting to diminish the Khan’s with
vitriol that represents, almost impossibly, a new low for him. He has attacked Ghazala Kahn for not speaking
while at the convention podium, and said, in response to Khizr Kahn’s charge that he
had made no sacrifices for this country, that he indeed had, by “working very,
very hard” – as if that somehow paralleled the loss of a child. As this is written, he is being excoriated
for attacking the Kahn’s, and Khizr Kahn himself has challenged Paul Ryan and Mitch
McConnell to renounce him – a challenge currently being met with an
uncomfortable silence.
The DemCon even had the type of star power that Trump had
promised and failed to deliver, with Paul Simon, Katy Perry and Demi Lovato all
performing topical hits live for the adoring crowd, typical of a convention
that was expertly choreographed, perfectly prime-timed and brilliantly executed.
And, of course, Hillary Clinton herself knocked it out of
the park, receiving strong marks for her own persuasive case for her
presidency, a confidently delivered pitch that was grounded in her long-standing
values and extraordinary track record.
If you want to learn more about why she was so effective, read Steve’s
piece, the best of the many that dissected Hillary’s valedictory:
The early post-DemCon polling has been strong. RABA has Hillary up +15, and PPP has her
+5. We’ll wait until we have a full set
of “bounce” results and report back then.
Expect her to have retaken a solid lead.
What are RABA and PPP?
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