If Ted Cruz is going to mount a serious “alternative”
challenge to Donald Trump, the four March 8 GOP primaries and caucuses are a
good place to start. To date Cruz had
generally shown regional strength, winning home state Texas, neighbor Oklahoma
and near-neighbor Kansas. He has also
done well in caucuses, winning three of those smaller contests that reward
passionate ideology and strong organizations, Iowa, Alaska and Maine.
But for Cruz to truly challenge Trump, he has to start winning races not
as narrowly defined. So, races that are primaries in non-Texas-neighbor states would be a fair gauge of whether Cruz is
“catching on” and can catch Trump over the long haul. Michigan is a perfect test case for Cruz, a primary
with 59 delegates at stake. Also on tap
tomorrow are primaries in Mississippi (40) and Idaho (32), as well as a caucus
in Hawaii (19).
Winning any of these will be a challenge for Cruz. Polling has been extensive in Michigan, and
Trump is leading Cruz and Kasich by a two-to-one margin, with Marco
Rubio fading behind. Mississippi, a
Texas neighbor, looks no better. There
is only one poll there, from late February, but Cruz trailed Trump by two-to-one
in that one as well. Cruz is fairing
slightly better in the one poll in Idaho, but still trails by 10. There had been no polling in Hawaii at all.
On the Democratic side, there are only two races, primaries
in Michigan (147 delegates) and Mississippi (40). Both are shaping up (given the polls) to be
Clinton routs, and the Bernie faithful, hopes raised after a weekend with three
victories out of four (but a net gain of a piddling three delegates), may
become a bit demoralized when the counting is done tomorrow.
BTRTN PROJECTIONS
This is a day when the leaders will show no mercy and sweep.
BTRTN projects that Donald Trump will win all four GOP contests and
Hillary Clinton will win both Democratic primaries.
March 8 GOP
|
Michigan
|
Mississippi
|
Idaho
|
Hawaii
|
Delegates >>
|
59
|
40
|
32
|
19
|
Primary/Caucus
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
C
|
Trump
|
42
|
46
|
43
|
39
|
Cruz
|
22
|
28
|
28
|
25
|
Rubio
|
12
|
17
|
19
|
22
|
Kasich
|
24
|
10
|
10
|
14
|
March 8 DEM
|
Michigan
|
Mississippi
|
Delegates >>
|
147
|
41
|
Primary/Caucus
|
P
|
P
|
Clinton
|
63
|
75
|
Sanders
|
37
|
25
|
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