We are back with our projection of the Democratic South
Carolina primary, which is tomorrow, Saturday, February 27.
This race is reasonably analogous to the Republicans’ last
go-round in Nevada. That is, like Donald
Trump, Hillary Clinton has taken two out of the three initial contests. Like Trump, she had a huge scare – for Trump,
it was losing Iowa, for Clinton it was getting crushed in New Hampshire. And like Trump in South Carolina, she
recovered last week, in Nevada, with an important win. For Trump, Nevada was validation of South Carolina,
stamping him as the front runner on a seemingly inexorable pace to the GOP
nomination. South Carolina could
function similarly for Hillary Clinton.
But unlike Trump in Nevada, there is little mystery here. South Carolina has been plastered with polls
and this is indeed a primary, for which the polls are more likely to be
predictive than for a caucus. And the
facts are, through the last few months, from the squeaker Clinton win in Iowa
through the trouncing at the hands of Sanders in New Hampshire, to the comeback
win in Nevada, the South Carolina polls have been steady. Buoyed by the overwhelming support of a large
African-American community that is loyal to the Clintons, she has led Sanders
convincingly for months, with no sign of that lead narrowing:
|
South Carolina (D)
|
Jan
|
Feb 1 - 13
|
Feb 14-24
|
|
Clinton
|
62
|
61
|
60
|
|
Sanders
|
33
|
36
|
29
|
Clinton has led all 33 polls in South Carolina since last
May, all by at least 18 percentage points and most of the recent ones by 25-30,
and she led handily even when Joe Biden was still included in the polls.
Every time I start a sentence with the phrase, “like Trump,
Hillary…” I can feel the simultaneous groaning of millions of Clinton-ites. None of them want to see Hillary equated with
Donald Trump, in any way. But the
parallel is clear: if Hillary wins South
Carolina the way Trump won Nevada – that is, convincingly – she will have
enormous momentum into other Clinton-friendly states on Super Tuesday, and
could emerge on the morning of March 2nd virtually unstoppable. Just like Donald Trump.
BTRTN PREDICTION
Our
BTRTN prediction is that Hillary Clinton will win the South Carolina Democratic
primary by 26 points. Bernie
Sanders will limp on trying to figure out what he might be able to do on March
1 and beyond to turn it around. And,
seeing the math that I am certain is already being floated uncomfortably around
Sanders headquarters, finding no clear strategy to do so.
|
South Carolina (D)
|
BTRTN Prediction
|
|
Clinton
|
63
|
|
Sanders
|
37
|
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