Donald Trump was the big winner in Nevada, crushing Marco
Rubio by 22 points in an unpredictable state where Rubio once lived and where
both he and Ted Cruz were well organized.
I have a decision on my hands, which is when to “call” the nomination
for Donald Trump. I am mighty tempted to
do it right now, because I fail to see a viable path to derailing him. The only possible path – the abrupt departure
of Ted Cruz, John Kasich and Ben Carson from the field, which would give Marco
Rubio a clear shot at Trump and test Trump’s much-hypothesized “40% ceiling” --
is not going to happen. (By the way,
Trump reached 45% in Nevada, cruising past that ceiling for his highest vote
total yet.)
Apart from the fact that each of Cruz, Rubio and Kasich sees
winning states for them in the near future (their home states, Texas, Florida and
Ohio, respectively – and only Cruz is beating Trump in these home states),
there is one other reason they won’t drop out soon. With few exceptions (and this year is one of
them) in modern times the GOP candidate who won the second most delegates in a
given year has gone on to secure the nomination in the following election
cycle. The exceptions to that: incumbent years and Bush in 2000. (Romney finished a close third to Huckabee in
2008, but Huckabee did not run in 2012).
So (despite losing some cache this year) the second place prize, the
unofficial title of “next in line,” is not going to be easily abandoned.
There is not a bevy of Super Tuesday (March 1) polling as
yet – and maybe there won’t be – but what is out there is solid for Trump,
except for Texas, in places as varied as Georgia, Virginia and
Massachusetts. What can change that in
the next week? Trump commits a
gaffe? Loses the debate on Thursday night? Sprouts horns? I just can’t see it. For my GOP friends out there, the ones who
are mighty uncomfortable with Trump, you need to start facing up to what you
will do in November – when you will almost certainly be staring at a choice
between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
BTRTN PREDICTION
We did keep our streak alive in Nevada and correctly
predicted Donald Trump would be the winner, and we were pretty close on the
percentages, but in truth this was not our best forecast. We had plenty of excuses: Nevada is a caucus state, notoriously
difficult to poll; there were only two polls, none in the crucial last few
days; there was little history to go on, as Mitt Romney, with his strong
neighborly ties to Utah, easily won in 2008 and 2012.
But we should have sensed that the flap over Cruz firing a
top aide over the Rubio Bible video would have hurt Cruz, yet we still had Cruz
in second. Rubio ended up nosing him out. Less consequentially, we also had Kasich
ahead of Carson in the nether region of the results. So we missed by an average of 3.6 percentage points per
candidate, and got the ranking wrong by 0.8 per candidate. Still, not a terrible night for BTRTN.
|
Nevada GOP
|
BTRTN
Prediction
|
Actual
|
Absolute
Difference
|
Predicted Rank
|
Actual Rank
|
Abs Rank Difference
|
|
Trump
|
40
|
46
|
6
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Rubio
|
21
|
24
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
|
Cruz
|
23
|
21
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
|
Carson
|
7
|
5
|
2
|
4
|
5
|
1
|
|
Kasich
|
9
|
4
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
1
|
|
3.6
|
0.8
|
*************************************
Here is BTRTN’s prediction record for the 37 projections we
have made in 2016, one for each competing candidate across the seven races that
have occurred. We have called the winner
of all seven races correctly (better than Nate Silver!) and are off an average
of a mere 2.2 percentage points per candidate projection. And we’ve also done well on rankings, off a
half a rank on average. Here are each of
the 37 projections, if you care to peruse them.
|
State
|
Party
|
Candidate
|
Predict.
|
Actual
|
Abs. Diff
|
Pred. Rank
|
Act. Rank
|
Abs Rk Diff
|
|
ALL
|
|
ALL 37
|
|
|
2.2
|
|
|
0.5
|
|
IOWA
|
DEM
|
|
|
|
2.7
|
|
|
0.0
|
|
Iowa
|
Dem
|
Clinton
|
50
|
50
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Iowa
|
Dem
|
Sanders
|
46
|
50
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
|
Iowa
|
Dem
|
O'Malley
|
4
|
0
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
|
IOWA
|
GOP
|
|
|
|
1.0
|
|
|
0.7
|
|
Iowa
|
GOP
|
Cruz
|
25
|
28
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Iowa
|
GOP
|
Trump
|
24
|
24
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
|
Iowa
|
GOP
|
Rubio
|
22
|
23
|
1
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
|
Iowa
|
GOP
|
Carson
|
7
|
9
|
2
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
|
Iowa
|
GOP
|
Paul
|
5
|
5
|
0
|
5
|
5
|
0
|
|
Iowa
|
GOP
|
Bush
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
6
|
6
|
0
|
|
Iowa
|
GOP
|
Fiorina
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
10
|
7
|
3
|
|
Iowa
|
GOP
|
Kasich
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
|
Iowa
|
GOP
|
Huckabee
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
6
|
9
|
3
|
|
Iowa
|
GOP
|
Christie
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
8
|
10
|
2
|
|
Iowa
|
GOP
|
Santorum
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
11
|
11
|
0
|
|
NH
|
DEM
|
|
|
|
3.5
|
|
|
0.0
|
|
NH
|
Dem
|
Sanders
|
57
|
60
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
NH
|
Dem
|
Clinton
|
43
|
39
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
|
NH
|
GOP
|
|
|
|
2.0
|
|
|
0.6
|
|
NH
|
GOP
|
Trump
|
32
|
35
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
NH
|
GOP
|
Kasich
|
16
|
16
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
|
NH
|
GOP
|
Cruz
|
14
|
11
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
|
NH
|
GOP
|
Bush
|
12
|
11
|
1
|
5
|
4
|
1
|
|
NH
|
GOP
|
Rubio
|
15
|
11
|
4
|
3
|
5
|
2
|
|
NH
|
GOP
|
Christie
|
4
|
8
|
4
|
6
|
6
|
0
|
|
NH
|
GOP
|
Fiorina
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
6
|
7
|
1
|
|
NH
|
GOP
|
Carson
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
|
NEVADA
|
DEM
|
|
|
|
0.8
|
|
|
0.0
|
|
Nevada
|
Dem
|
Clinton
|
52
|
53
|
0.7
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Nevada
|
Dem
|
Sanders
|
48
|
47
|
0.8
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
|
SC
|
GOP
|
|
|
|
3.2
|
|
|
0.3
|
|
S. Carolina
|
GOP
|
Trump
|
29
|
33
|
4
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
S. Carolina
|
GOP
|
Rubio
|
22
|
22
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
|
S. Carolina
|
GOP
|
Cruz
|
18
|
22
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
|
S. Carolina
|
GOP
|
Bush
|
12
|
8
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
1
|
|
S. Carolina
|
GOP
|
Kasich
|
13
|
8
|
5
|
4
|
5
|
1
|
|
S. Carolina
|
GOP
|
Carson
|
6
|
7
|
1
|
6
|
6
|
0
|
|
Nevada
|
GOP
|
|
|
|
3.6
|
|
|
0.8
|
|
Nevada
|
GOP
|
Trump
|
40
|
46
|
6
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Nevada
|
GOP
|
Rubio
|
21
|
24
|
3
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
|
Nevada
|
GOP
|
Cruz
|
23
|
21
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
|
Nevada
|
GOP
|
Carson
|
7
|
5
|
2
|
5
|
4
|
1
|
|
Nevada
|
GOP
|
Kasich
|
9
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
5
|
1
|
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