Here
are BTRTN’s Annual Baseball Hall of Fame predictions! The announcement will be made on January 18,
a bit later than usual.
And
without further ado, we
predict that the Hall will welcome a trio of National Leaguers (by and large), Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines and Trevor Hoffman into the Class of 2017. Each fell just short of the mark last year,
and without a compelling first-ballot candidate in the mix, they should push
through this year. It should be noted
that Raines is in his last year of eligibility, the first candidate to face
that fate at the 10-year mark rather than the former 15-year cutoff.
Note: we have made these predictions without
peeking at the voting to date that is compiled annually by the Hall of Fame
Vote Tracker, so this is a “clean” prediction.
Last
year we did not do so well. While we were
perfect in the big picture, nailing Ken Griffey, Jr. and Mike Piazza as the
inductees (and correctly calling that Bagwell, Raines and Hoffman would fall
short), we generally undercalled the voting percentages for most of the
holdovers. We thought that, after
aberrant years in 2014 and 2015 when voting soared to well over 8 votes per
voter (and seven players were inducted), votes per voter would fall back to the
6-7 range (from 1990 to 2013, votes per voter ranged from 4.2 to 6.8). But while that metric did fall a bit in 2016,
it dropped only from 8.4 to 7.9. That
meant that collectively the candidates received almost 600 votes more than we
expected, or about 1.5 per voter.
We
do think votes per voter will fall again this year, with no legitimate
first-ballot candidates in the mix to replace Junior Griffey last year. We project that we will see 7.4 votes per
voter.
This
year there are 19 newcomers to the HOF ballot who join 15 holdovers for a field
of 34. This analysis will focus on answering
three questions: 1) who will be elected to the Hall of Fame this
year, 2) how many votes will everyone
on the ballot receive, and 3) who should
be in the Hall of Fame, regardless of how the voting goes?
To
answer the first two questions, we have developed separate models for
newcomers, second-year and three-year-plus candidates. The first-year model basically relies on Wins
Above Replacement value as the independent variable, while the holdover models rely
primarily on prior voting history tempered by WAR (players with higher WARs
tend to do better in Year 2, those with lower WARs tend to do worse). PED-tainting is also a factor in the models. We
are not ruled by the models; they get us within field goal range of our final
predictions. We then do some manual
adjustments, in part to reconcile the individual vote projections with the overall
vote projection, and also in individual cases to consider other factors such as
outstanding postseason performances and nearing the end of the eligibility
cutoff.
So,
let’s break down all 29 players on the ballot:
·
As
stated, there will be three new members of the Hall of Fame, and each has had
to overcome some baggage. Bagwell had a
PED shadow, and this is his 7th time on the ballot; Raines’ past
included an early bout with cocaine addiction, and this is his last shot; and,
in Hoffman’s case, HOF voters are still trying to figure out how to assess
relievers, but they surely knew that Hoffman was not on a par with his
contemporary, Mariano Rivera, particularly in the postseason, and this kept
Hoffman out last year in his first ballot appearance.
·
A
total of 15 players will not gain election but will surpass the
5% threshold for inclusion on next year’s ballot. Curt Schilling will continue his climb, and
come in 4th, followed by Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina and the kings
of PED, Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds.
We have been hearing that the writers might be softening on the PED era
a bit, or at least for Clemens and Bonds, who were Hall-worthy before their PED
years, so perhaps the notorious duo will make a larger jump. (Their bump last year was less than the average
of the other holdover candidates.)
Martinez and Mussina had the biggest increases last year, along with
Fred McGriff. Among the first-balloters,
Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Jorge Posada and Vladimir Guerrero will survive,
but only Rodriguez will garner significant support
·
That
leaves 16 players who will miss the 5% cutoff, Sammy Sosa and 15 first-timers. We thought Sosa would miss the cut last year
but he squeaked by. We don’t think he
will survive again; he saw none of the “bump” that Clemens and Bonds (and the
other holdovers) enjoyed. The rest of
the pack includes some very good players; Magglio Ordonez was an All-Star six
times. But the rest are head scratchers
for HOF consideration…why does the Hall insist on loading up the ballot with
clearly non-deserving players, including four (Orlando Cabrera, Casey Blake,
Pat Burrell and Matt Stairs) who failed to make even one All-Star team? How can you be considered for the HOF when
you have never been selected as one of the top 60+ players in MLB in any year
of your career?
So,
here are my predictions for the January, 2017 Hall of Fame announcement. The columns are: WAR = Wins Above Replacement value, YOB =
Years on Ballot, PED = steroid issue, LY% is the percentage a player received
in last year’s vote, and then our projection in the last column. That is, to be absolutely clear, we are predicting
that Jeff Bagwell will receive 87% of the vote, Tim Raines 85%, and so on.
2017
|
WAR
|
YOB
|
PED
|
LY%
|
Final
Proj.
|
79.6
|
7
|
71.6
|
87
|
||
69.1
|
10
|
69.8
|
85
|
||
Trevor
Hoffman
|
28.4
|
2
|
67.3
|
82
|
|
79.9
|
5
|
52.3
|
63
|
||
68.3
|
8
|
43.4
|
53
|
||
140.3
|
5
|
1
|
45.2
|
52
|
|
83.0
|
4
|
43.0
|
52
|
||
162.4
|
5
|
1
|
44.3
|
51
|
|
29.6
|
15
|
34.1
|
45
|
||
Ivan
Rodriguez
|
68.4
|
1
|
30
|
||
Fred
McGriff
|
52.4
|
8
|
20.9
|
26
|
|
55.2
|
4
|
16.6
|
20
|
||
Larry
Walker
|
72.6
|
7
|
15.5
|
18
|
|
Manny
Ramirez
|
69.2
|
1
|
1
|
15
|
|
Vladimir
Guerrero
|
59.3
|
1
|
12
|
||
Gary
Sheffield
|
60.3
|
3
|
1
|
11.6
|
11
|
Billy
Wagner
|
28.1
|
2
|
10.5
|
11
|
|
Jorge
Posada
|
42.7
|
1
|
11
|
||
Sammy
Sosa
|
58.4
|
5
|
1
|
7.0
|
4
|
Edgar
Renteria
|
32.1
|
1
|
4
|
||
Jason
Varitek
|
24.3
|
1
|
3
|
||
Mike
Cameron
|
46.5
|
1
|
2
|
||
J.D.
Drew
|
44.9
|
1
|
2
|
||
Magglio
Ordonez
|
38.5
|
1
|
1
|
||
Orlando
Cabrera
|
21.4
|
1
|
1
|
||
Derrek
Lee
|
34.3
|
1
|
0
|
||
Tim
Wakefield
|
34.6
|
1
|
0
|
||
Melvin
Mora
|
28.2
|
1
|
0
|
||
Carlos
Guillen
|
27.7
|
1
|
0
|
||
Casey
Blake
|
24.9
|
1
|
0
|
||
Pat
Burrell
|
18.8
|
1
|
0
|
||
Freddy
Sanchez
|
15.8
|
1
|
0
|
||
Arthur
Rhoades
|
15.4
|
1
|
0
|
||
Matt
Stairs
|
14.3
|
1
|
0
|
||
7.41 per
|
Regardless
of the projections and the voting, who should
be in the Hall of Fame? This analysis
compares the current candidates to key statistics of three categories of comparable
players: the “Top Half” of all players at
their position in the HOF (ranked by WAR), the “average” Hall of Famer at their position, and
the “Bottom Half” of all players at their position in the HOF. The “Bottom Half” is basically composed of either
players who should NOT be in the Hall (the Ross Youngs type) or players who are
deserving but tend to have been borderline selections. In general, our ballot consists of candidates
who are markedly better than the “Bottom Half” average.
Our ballot consists of the following 13 players (we don’t
confine ourselves to the silly “Max of 10” rule): the three projected inductees plus Ivan
Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Jeff Bagwell, Fred McGriff, Larry Walker, Edgar
Martinez, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, Lee Smith and Billy Wagner.
Catchers
If
you ignore the PED rumors, Ivan
Rodriguez is a gimme, a clear HOF’er. He has two things going for him: his
longevity and his defense. He was a good
offensive catcher, but hardly a great one, as evidenced by his mere 106
OPS+. His longevity is signaled by his
accumulation of 2844 hits, unheard of for a catcher. His 68 WAR is, as you can see from the chart
below, is in line with the greatest to play the position, and makes him a lock
for Halldom. And much of that WAR is
driven by exceptional defense (his dWAR is 29).
Jorge Posada was an extremely
difficult call. Viscerally, he feels
like he belongs with the long list of Yankees from the modern era who won
championships and earned Hall votes but ultimately fell short of induction -- great
players like Bernie Williams, Thurman Munson, Graig Nettles and Ron Guidry –
rather than be enshrined alongside (ultimately) Derek Jeter and Mariano
Rivera. But his stats tell a different
story. Posada is simply one of the top
offensive catchers of all time; statistically, he sits (squats?) squarely with
the average HOF catcher, well above the bottom half. He was no defensive whiz, but he did handle a
staff that won five World Series. We
think he deserves it, though we don’t think the writers will agree, and
certainly not this year. Jorge is on our
ballot.
Catchers
|
Avg.
|
Hits
|
HR
|
RBI
|
OPS+
|
WAR
|
Top
Half
|
0.287
|
2052
|
307
|
1256
|
127
|
62
|
Average
HOF
|
0.287
|
1798
|
214
|
1036
|
121
|
50
|
Bottom
Half
|
0.287
|
1544
|
121
|
816
|
115
|
38
|
Ivan
Rodriguez
|
0.296
|
2844
|
311
|
1332
|
106
|
68
|
Jorge
Posada
|
0.273
|
1664
|
275
|
1065
|
121
|
43
|
First
Basemen
Jeff Bagwell’s stats are extraordinary,
basically in line with the stats of the top half of Hall of Fame first baseman,
a heady group that includes legends like Lou Gehrig, Jimmy Foxx, Frank Thomas,
Eddie Murray, Johnny Mize and Willie McCovey.
There is no question that he is a HOF’er and has been punished for the
PED shadow for years.
Fred McGriff has always been a very
tough call for us, but we have convinced ourselves that he belongs in the
HOF. His home run and RBI totals alone
make a strong case – right with the giants of the position. And while his WAR and OPS+ are a little on
the tepid side for first basemen, they are still better than those of the
bottom half. Fred makes our 2017 ballot.
First Basemen
|
Avg.
|
Hits
|
HR
|
RBI
|
OPS+
|
WAR
|
Top
Half
|
0.296
|
2578
|
347
|
1580
|
152
|
82
|
Average
HOF
|
0.291
|
2402
|
296
|
1434
|
142
|
66
|
Bottom
Half
|
0.286
|
2210
|
239
|
1274
|
131
|
49
|
Jeff
Bagwell
|
0.297
|
2314
|
449
|
1529
|
149
|
80
|
Fred
McGriff
|
0.284
|
2490
|
493
|
1550
|
134
|
51
|
Second
Basemen
Jeff Kent is the all-time
leading home run hitter among second baseman, and is third in RBIs behind
Rogers Hornsby and Napoleon Lajoie. He
was simply one of the greatest power-hitting second basemen ever and the
greatest of modern times. There is no
question he deserves to be in the HOF, and he is on our ballot.
Second Basemen
|
Avg.
|
Hits
|
HR
|
RBI
|
OPS+
|
WAR
|
Top
Half
|
0.314
|
2780
|
181
|
1259
|
132
|
90
|
Average
HOF
|
0.298
|
2442
|
160
|
1089
|
120
|
69
|
Bottom
Half
|
0.283
|
2103
|
139
|
920
|
107
|
48
|
Jeff
Kent
|
0.290
|
2461
|
377
|
1518
|
123
|
55
|
Shortstops
Edgar Renteria will be forever known
as a World Series Game 7 wunderkind, the author of not one but two game-winning, series-ending,
series-winning hits, in 1997 with Florida and in 2014 with the Red Sox, neatly
bookending a fine career. His stats
generally hold up with the bottom half of HOF second basemen, but his WAR and
OPS+ are below that standard. We had to
think twice about him, but decided he falls a bit short. It is a tough era to be a borderline case.
Shortstops
|
Avg.
|
Hits
|
HR
|
RBI
|
OPS+
|
WAR
|
Top
Half
|
0.290
|
2617
|
172
|
1261
|
117
|
77
|
Average
HOF
|
0.286
|
2320
|
113
|
1035
|
108
|
62
|
Bottom
Half
|
0.282
|
1997
|
49
|
789
|
99
|
46
|
Edgar
Renteria
|
0.286
|
2327
|
140
|
923
|
94
|
32
|
Third
Basemen
There
are no third basemen worth mentioning are on the ballot, unless you think Casey
Blake (and his 25 WAR) is worthy of a few sentences. We don’t.
Outfielders/Designated
Hitters
Tim Raines is undervalued as a
speedster; his 808 steals, and 85% success rate (highest among those with 300+
attempts) do not get incorporated well into the advanced stats. The cocaine rap doesn’t help him either. But Rock has a WAR of 65 and easily deserves
to be in the HOF.
Larry Walker suffers from “Coors
Field Syndrome,” with an otherworldly home OPS of 1.068 and a merely very good
.865 on the road. It has been noted in
Walker’s defense that players generally do better at home than on the road (even
if not quite to Walker’s extent.) But
his 73 WAR is already park-adjusted and his overall stats are pretty much on
the mark of an average HOF outfielder.
Walker is on our ballot.
Vladimir Guerrero brings his monster
stats to the ballot for the first time and if Walker is deserving, so is
Guerrero. Vladdy’s WAR is lower than
Walker’s, but he hit many more homers and had nearly 200 more RBIs, and without
the Coors effect. He’s on our ballot,
too.
Magglio Ordonez does not make it,
though. While his power stats are in
line with the average HOF outfielder, his WAR and OPS+ trail the bottom
halfers.
Edgar Martinez gets dissed because he
was mostly a full-time DH (68% of his games), but with an extremely healthy WAR
of 68 and OPS+ of 147, he deserves to be in the HOF. There are not enough DH’s at this point to
compare him to, but in comparing him to the outfielders, you can see that his
stats dominate those of the bottom half in every respect. He’s on our ballot.
Outfielders/DHs
|
Avg.
|
Hits
|
HR
|
RBI
|
OPS+
|
WAR
|
Top
Half
|
0.318
|
2932
|
314
|
1513
|
145
|
93
|
Average
HOF
|
0.314
|
2566
|
240
|
1288
|
137
|
70
|
Bottom
Half
|
0.309
|
2175
|
161
|
1047
|
127
|
46
|
Larry
Walker
|
0.313
|
2160
|
383
|
1311
|
140
|
73
|
Tim
Raines
|
0.294
|
2605
|
170
|
980
|
123
|
69
|
Vladimir
Guerrero
|
0.318
|
2147
|
449
|
1496
|
140
|
59
|
Magglio
Ordonez
|
0.309
|
2156
|
294
|
1236
|
125
|
39
|
Edgar
Martinez
|
0.312
|
2247
|
309
|
1261
|
147
|
68
|
Starting
Pitchers
Curt Schilling’s ERA+ is a sterling 127
and his WAR is a hefty 81. And if you
like postseason performances, his stats are phenomenal: 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA. We’re not fans of his off the field, but he’s
on our Hall of Fame ballot.
Mike Mussina, in our view, was a
stronger candidate than Tom Glavine when they were both on the ballot together
in 2014, each for the first time.
Mussina has a better ERA+, won-loss percentage and WAR than Glavine, but
the votes for Glavine demonstrated the mystical power of the 300-win mark. It was ludicrous that Glavine received 92% of
the votes to Mussina’s 20%. It is
entirely possible that no one will ever win more than Moose’s total of 270
again. Moose is on our ballot.
Starting
Pitchers
|
W
|
W-L %
|
ERA+
|
IP
|
SO
|
WAR
|
Top Half
|
314
|
0.592
|
124
|
4735
|
2603
|
89
|
Average HOF
|
267
|
0.598
|
123
|
3998
|
2210
|
70
|
Bottom Half
|
221
|
0.605
|
122
|
3260
|
1817
|
50
|
Mike Mussina
|
270
|
0.638
|
123
|
3562
|
2813
|
83
|
Curt Schilling
|
216
|
0.597
|
127
|
3261
|
3116
|
81
|
Relief
Pitchers
I could go on about relief pitchers for a
while. I’ll start with the chart below. Here I compare the four HOF “pure”
relievers(Gossage, Fingers, Sutter and Wilhelm) with the 13 relievers who
reached 300 or more saves but were turned aside on the first ballot by HOF
voters (none met the 5% threshold).
Relief Pitchers
|
Saves
|
IP
|
ERA+
|
WHIP
|
WAR
|
Games
|
IP/G
|
Yr 1 Vote%
|
Average HOF (ex-Eck)*
|
335
|
1702
|
131
|
1.16
|
35
|
919
|
1.9
|
41%
|
Non-HOF 300+ Saves
|
334
|
1017
|
130
|
1.26
|
18
|
817
|
1.2
|
1%
|
Trevor Hoffman
|
601
|
1089
|
141
|
1.06
|
28
|
1035
|
1.1
|
67%
|
Billy Wagner
|
422
|
903
|
187
|
1.00
|
28
|
853
|
1.1
|
11%
|
478
|
1289
|
132
|
1.26
|
30
|
1022
|
1.3
|
42%
|
|
* Gossage, Fingers, Sutter,
Wilhelm
|
||||||||
What is interesting is that both groups
averaged around 335 saves and both had identical ERA+. Three things distinguish the HOF quartet: their lower WHIP (1.16 versus 1.26), WARs and,
perhaps most revealing, their innings pitcher per game. The HOF relievers were NOT one inning
wonders, they averaged nearly two innings per outing.
Hall voters seemed to be saying that the
one-inning wonders need to do much more than merely reach 300+ saves to warrant
HOF status. They want more saves (many
more) and lower WHIPs than the two-inning legends.
Against that backdrop, let’s evaluate our three
candidates.
Trevor
Hoffman. So you want more saves? How about over 600? Lower WHIP?
How is 1.06? Hoffman received 67%
of the vote last year, his first, so his accomplishments were noted. He’s on our ballot.
Lee Smith is a trickier
story. Sure he has plenty of saves, at
478, but his WHIP is back with the ones who have been rejected, at 1.26. Our view is, those are a ton of saves, his
ERA+ is the same as the HOF’ers and his WAR is slightly better than Hoffman’s,
so he is on our ballot.
Which
brings us to Billy Wagner. We have to confess that before Wagner was on
the ballot last year, we would not have believed he was Hall-worthy. But his statistics are incredible. He has well over 400 saves and a WHIP that is
equal to that of the hallowed Mariano Rivera, 1.00. His WAR is the same as Hoffman’s. The writers were not too impressed last year
–he received only 11% of the votes – but we are. He’s on our ballot, too.
The
Others
As
for the PED gang…nobody doubts the
statistical HOF credentials of Roger
Clemens, Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Sammy Sosa and Gary Sheffield. But the
steroids rap voids them all from consideration, in our view.
And
for the rest…the others are fairly forgettable by Hall of Fame standards, with
WARS between 14 and 47. We are not going
to devote any more time to making the case against them.
So, look for smiles from Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines and Trevor
Hoffman, with many of the rest being content with upticks in their
progress.
