Here
is a summary of the pre/post debate polls. The chart below compares national and Iowa polls
before the debate on August 6 with those conducted after the debate. (There were 13 national polls in the week
before the debate and three after; in
Iowa we compare two polls in July with two conducted after the debate). In a nutshell:
·
The two indisputable winners in both the
national and Iowa polls are Carly Fiorina, who rose 4-5 points in each and
jumped considerably in the rankings, and Donald Trump, who remains ahead
nationally and jumped into first in Iowa.
o
Carly Fiorina who was not even on the “big
stage,” but by all accounts she won the “kiddie table” debate and the noise
from that was clearly louder than expected
o
With respect to Trump, while the polls were conducted
after the debate, it is not clear whether they captured the impact of the Megyn
Kelly statements (the implication by Trump that she was hormonal in asking
tough questions of him at the debate) that has ruled the media in the immediate
aftermath.
·
The biggest losers appear to have been the two
non-Trump frontrunners, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, who both played it safe and
paid the price. Bush lost ground
nationally (though held it in Iowa) while Walker lost major points in each. Walker had been in first in Iowa in every poll
since May, but dropped sharply and is now in second.
·
The media spin focused a great deal on John Kasich
(a “winner”) and Rand Paul (“a loser”); these opinions have been borne out
modestly by the polls in Iowa, but not at all nationally.
·
Ben Carson also picked up ground nationally,
presumably on the strength of his closing statement, which was more hilarious
than any other desired attribute (e.g., “statesmanlike”). Marco Rubio gained some minor ground
nationally, but not in Iowa. Ted Cruz
and Bobby Jindal seem to have moved up a bit in Iowa.
|
NATIONAL
|
Pre-Aug 6
|
Post-Aug 6
|
Change
|
IOWA
|
Pre-Aug 6
|
Post-Aug 6
|
Change
|
|
|
Trump
|
25
|
26
|
2
|
Trump
|
15
|
25
|
10
|
|
|
Bush
|
13
|
10
|
-3
|
Walker
|
21
|
14
|
-7
|
|
|
Carson
|
6
|
9
|
3
|
Bush
|
10
|
11
|
1
|
|
|
Rubio
|
5
|
7
|
2
|
Carson
|
8
|
9
|
1
|
|
|
Cruz
|
6
|
7
|
1
|
Cruz
|
6
|
8
|
2
|
|
|
Walker
|
11
|
7
|
-4
|
Fiorina
|
2
|
7
|
5
|
|
|
Fiorina
|
1
|
6
|
4
|
Huckabee
|
7
|
6
|
-1
|
|
|
Huckabee
|
6
|
5
|
0
|
Rubio
|
5
|
5
|
0
|
|
|
Paul
|
5
|
4
|
-1
|
Jindal
|
3
|
5
|
2
|
|
|
Kasich
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
Kasich
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
|
|
Christie
|
3
|
2
|
-1
|
Santorum
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
|
|
Graham
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
Paul
|
5
|
2
|
-3
|
|
|
Perry
|
2
|
1
|
-1
|
Perry
|
3
|
2
|
-1
|
|
|
Jindal
|
2
|
1
|
-1
|
Christie
|
2
|
1
|
-1
|
|
|
Santorum
|
1
|
1
|
-1
|
Graham
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
|
Pataki
|
1
|
0
|
-1
|
Pataki
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
Gilmore
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Gilmore
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
Other/NA
|
10
|
8
|
-2
|
Other/NA
|
12
|
1
|
-11
|
Awesome News!!!
ReplyDelete