We
had a barnburner of a month in June, with the numbing number of candidate
announcements (eight more) overwhelmed by several historic Supreme Court
announcements, the demise of the Iowa Straw Poll and the forceful intrusion of
Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump into the mix.
WHO’S
IN?
There
are now 19 officially declared presidential candidates, including 5 Democrats
and 14 Republicans. Joe Biden, Scott
Walker and John Kasich are other prominent prospects yet to announce, and the
latter two are expected to do so soon.
Biden continues to play wait-and-see.
No
candidates have dropped out as yet, and no candidates who were expected to run
decided not to (at least since Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney begged off in January). We thus have an enormous field on the GOP
side, which could result in a long and meaningful primary season.
|
Republicans
|
Date
|
In/Out
|
|
Democrats
|
Date
|
In/Out
|
|
Paul
Ryan
|
Jan 12
|
OUT
|
|
Hillary
Clinton
|
Apr 19
|
IN
|
|
Mitt
Romney
|
Jan 30
|
OUT
|
|
Bernie
Sanders
|
Apr 30
|
IN
|
|
Ted
Cruz
|
Mar 23
|
IN
|
|
Martin
O'Malley
|
May 29
|
IN
|
|
Rand
Paul
|
Apr 7
|
IN
|
|
Lincoln
Chafee
|
June 3
|
IN
|
|
Marco
Rubio
|
Apr 20
|
IN
|
|
Jim
Webb
|
July 2
|
IN
|
|
Ben
Carson
|
May 4
|
IN
|
|
|
|
|
|
Carly
Fiorina
|
May 4
|
IN
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mike
Huckabee
|
May 5
|
IN
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rick
Santorum
|
May 27
|
IN
|
|
|
|
|
|
George
Pataki
|
May 28
|
IN
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lindsay
Graham
|
June 1
|
IN
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rick
Perry
|
June 4
|
IN
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jeb
Bush
|
June 15
|
IN
|
|
|
|
|
|
Donald
Trump
|
June 16
|
IN
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bobby
Jindal
|
June 24
|
IN
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chris
Christie
|
June 30
|
IN
|
|
|
|
|
ELECTION
DASHBOARD
The
latest polls on the Democratic side show Hillary Clinton still in command but
facing a real challenge by Bernie Sanders.
Both the leading issue of the day, income inequality, and the primary
schedule play to Bernie’s strengths. The
self-proclaimed socialist is wildly popular among Iowa liberals (his retail
efforts are drawing hundreds and even thousands of supporters there) while New
Hampshire, next door to his native Vermont, is long familiar with the
Independent Senator. (Yes, Bernie is not
really even a Democrat, he is registered as an Independent but caucuses with
the Democrats in the Senate.)
Bernie
has not made much of a dent in the polls on the national scene, hanging around with
Joe Biden nearly 50 points behind Hillary, but his growing presence in Iowa and
New Hampshire are apparent in the June poll numbers, where he has sliced her
lead to 29 and 15 points, respectively.
This is still a huge gap, but Clinton officials have taken notice and are
debating changes to her small-ball campaign strategy to date. Martin O’Malley has made no dent in the
proceedings, nor have Jim Webb or Lincoln Chafee.
|
NATIONAL
|
May '15
|
Jun '15
|
|
IOWA
|
May '15
|
Jun '15
|
|
NH
|
May '15
|
Jun '15
|
|
Clinton
|
61
|
61
|
|
Clinton
|
60
|
52
|
|
Clinton
|
57
|
46
|
|
Sanders
|
14
|
13
|
|
Sanders
|
15
|
23
|
|
Sanders
|
16
|
31
|
|
Biden
|
13
|
12
|
|
Biden
|
11
|
8
|
|
Biden
|
4
|
8
|
|
Webb
|
2
|
2
|
|
O'Malley
|
3
|
2
|
|
O'Malley
|
2
|
2
|
|
O'Malley
|
1
|
2
|
|
Webb
|
3
|
1
|
|
Webb
|
1
|
1
|
|
Chafee
|
n/a
|
1
|
|
Chafee
|
n/a
|
0
|
|
Chafee
|
n/a
|
1
|
|
Other/NA
|
9
|
9
|
|
Other/NA
|
8
|
14
|
|
Other/NA
|
20
|
11
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
On
the GOP side, Donald Trump entered the campaign and promptly jumped to second
in New Hampshire, dominating the headlines with his outrageous comments about
Mexican immigrants (“They’re rapists.”).
His genius for headline-grabbing extends well beyond his name and wealth
alone – he has the knack for selecting issues that are vitriolic in nature and
wildly popular among the far, far right (see:
birther issue in 2012). Thus the
headlines, and the nightmare-by-association for the GOP as a party and its
candidates.
The
June polls showed good news for Jeb Bush, who seems to have regained his
footing and, despite (or because of?) The Donald’s presence, has jumped in all
polls. Ben Carson is also hanging in,
but Scott Walker and Marco Rubio slowed perceptible slippage. A raft of “top tier” candidates from the Tea
Party side either held ground or slipped in June, including Ted Cruz, Mike
Huckabee and Rand Paul. But, of course,
the race is as wide open as can be.
|
NATIONAL
|
May '15
|
Jun '15
|
|
IOWA
|
May '15
|
Jun '15
|
|
NH
|
May '15
|
Jun '15
|
|
Bush
|
11
|
14
|
|
Walker
|
21
|
18
|
|
Bush
|
13
|
16
|
|
Walker
|
14
|
11
|
|
Carson
|
7
|
10
|
|
Trump
|
7
|
11
|
|
Rubio
|
13
|
10
|
|
Bush
|
5
|
10
|
|
Walker
|
12
|
10
|
|
Carson
|
10
|
10
|
|
Paul
|
13
|
9
|
|
Paul
|
11
|
9
|
|
Paul
|
8
|
9
|
|
Huckabee
|
11
|
8
|
|
Rubio
|
12
|
8
|
|
Huckabee
|
10
|
7
|
|
Rubio
|
13
|
7
|
|
Carson
|
5
|
6
|
|
Trump
|
n/a
|
6
|
|
Cruz
|
12
|
6
|
|
Christie
|
5
|
5
|
|
Cruz
|
7
|
6
|
|
Trump
|
n/a
|
5
|
|
Fiorina
|
4
|
5
|
|
Christie
|
5
|
4
|
|
Perry
|
3
|
5
|
|
Cruz
|
6
|
4
|
|
Perry
|
3
|
4
|
|
Christie
|
3
|
4
|
|
Huckabee
|
4
|
4
|
|
Santorum
|
1
|
3
|
|
Santorum
|
2
|
4
|
|
Perry
|
3
|
3
|
|
Kasich
|
3
|
2
|
|
Fiorina
|
2
|
3
|
|
Kasich
|
1
|
2
|
|
Fiorina
|
2
|
2
|
|
Kasich
|
2
|
2
|
|
Santorum
|
2
|
1
|
|
Graham
|
1
|
2
|
|
Jindal
|
1
|
2
|
|
Pataki
|
2
|
1
|
|
Jindal
|
1
|
1
|
|
Graham
|
0
|
1
|
|
Graham
|
1
|
1
|
|
Other/NA
|
11
|
9
|
|
Other/NA
|
5
|
6
|
|
Bolton
|
2
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jindal
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other/NA
|
10
|
14
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
THE
HILLOMETER
Our
new BTRTN measure of Hillary Clinton’s electability, the “Hillometer,” fell
marginally from 22 to 19, still solid turf for her. Assuming she can get past Bernie – and I
think she will even if she loses to him in Iowa, given her money and his basic
unelectability – she continues to poll very well head-to-head versus the GOP
leader (6.2 points ahead of this month’s leader, Jeb Bush), and, despite a lack
of good news and some bad news (Bernie and more emails), has shown only minor
slippage in her approval rating (now 45.4%, down a point). The economy is on the rise again (Econometer
of 105.2, up 5 points) and President Obama maintained his 46% approval rating. Weight these factors as per the below chart
and, voila, 19 – still in very good shape (a negative number means she will
likely lose in the general election).
|
|
|
Raw
|
|
Final
|
|
As
of June 30, 2015
|
Measure
|
Base
|
Score
|
Weight
|
Score
|
|
Hillary's
margin versus GOP leader (Bush)
|
6.2%
|
0%
|
6.2%
|
50%
|
3.1
|
|
Hillary's
favorability rating
|
45.4%
|
50%
|
-4.6%
|
25%
|
-1.2
|
|
Obama's
approval rating
|
46.0%
|
50%
|
-4.0%
|
15%
|
-0.6
|
|
Econometer
|
105.2
|
100
|
5.2
|
10%
|
0.5
|
|
Sum
|
|
|
|
|
1.9
|
|
HILLOMETER
|
|
|
|
|
19
|
TOP
CAMPAIGN NEWS
·
IOWA STRAW POLL. The big news in June was the demise of the
Iowa Straw Poll, an institution that since 1979 has kicked off the electoral
season, albeit with a rather skewed methodology. The first nail in the coffin came from Michele
Bachmann’s 2012 win and subsequent rapid flame-out (the day after she won the
poll, she made some rather silly remarks about the HPV vaccine and ultimately
finished sixth in the Iowa caucus and dropped out). And then Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee and Marco
Rubio declined to participate. So,
wisely, the Iowans decided to cancel what would have been a sham.
This means there will be no early winnowing of
the field. You will recall Tim Pawlenty
dropping out after a poor Straw Poll showing in 2012. With no such even quasi-electoral mechanism,
and the rise of Super PACs by which a single wealthy mentor can keep a
candidate afloat (see: 2012, Shelley
Adelson and Newt Gingrich), the GOP gang of 14-16 will be hanging around for a
while.
·
NATIONAL DEBATE
CRITERION: The first event on the
calendar now becomes the first GOP debate, on August 6th. The networks have announced that they will
only allow the top 10 candidates in the national polls to appear on stage. By the current polls (above), that would
leave Rick Santorum, John Kasich (if he runs), Carly Fiorina, Bobby Jindal and
Lindsey Graham on the sideline, watching The Donald. This would be particularly galling for
Santorum, who won the Iowa caucus in 2012 and was the runner-up in total
delegates to Mitt Romney, but also to the others, two sitting Governors, a
prominent Senator, and the former CEO of a major global corporation (albeit
with a rather dubious stint). But the
story here is that these rules are forcing candidates to “go national” in their
campaigning to try to gain precious points in the polls rather than focusing
exclusively on the early states.
·
SUPREME COURT AND THE
FLAG: This has been a momentous month for the
Democrats and civil rights advocates, with the Supreme Court upholding
Obamacare once again and legalizing gay marriage in all 50 states, and the
killings in South Carolina leading straight down a path toward eradicating the
Confederate flag in all public venues save museums. While it is beyond sobering that it took the
Charlotte church massacre to get the South to move forward on the flag issue,
it was a progressive month for the country.
But the politico in me has to note that the
resolution of these issues more or less lets the GOP candidates off the hook on
each one. Now Jeb Bush can simply say, “these
are settled issues, let’s talk about the economy or foreign policy.” But I bet these issues will all come up at
the debates, and it will be interesting to see who stands firm (against these
advances) and who wiggles.
·
MONEY. Hillary raised $45 million in the second
quarter. That’s pretty darn good. Ben Carson also did well, but his number was
$8 million. More filings will be made by
July 15, although keep in mind these numbers only reflect fundraising since the
official announcements, thus Jeb Bush will only report a few weeks of numbers.
