Hillary
Clinton certainly appears to be all but a lock for the Democratic
nomination. But how well is she really
doing in her quest for the presidency?
With this post we introduce the “Hillometer,” a measure of her strength
as a candidate that should correlate well with her chances of winning the
election. Interpreting the index is very
simple: if it is above zero, the odds are she will be elected president on
November 8, 2016. The higher it goes,
the more likely it is that she will win.
And the converse, of course, is true…a negative number indicates she
will lose.
The
Hillometer is an index of four measures, which we will track monthly until we get
closer to Election Day itself.
- Margin: this is the average margin of Hillary’s
lead or shortfall in the polls versus the GOP’s leading candidate in the
previous months’ worth of polling.
This is the most important factor, so we give it 50% weighting in
the formula. This measure captures
not only Hillary’s strength, but also that of her chief rival of the
moment.
- Favorability: this is the difference between Hillary’s
current favorability rating and the 50% mark. We’ve weighted this at 25%.
- Obama
Approval: Hillary’s fortunes are tied in part to
President Obama, and thus we include Obama’s approval rating in the
formula. Again, this measure is the
difference between Obama’s current approval rating and the 50% mark. This measure is weighted at 15%.
- Economy: Hillary’s fortunes are also tied to the
strength of the economy. President
Obama is still held accountable for the economy, by and large, and if the
economy worsens it will hurt Hillary as well. We measure the strength of the economy
using our own Econometer, which is explained in the right hand
column. As of April 2015, when
Hillary announced, the Econometer was roughly at 100, so we will use that
as a base….if it worsens, it will hurt Hillary, if it improves, it will be
a positive for Hillary – and this is reflected in the Hillometer formula.
We
calculate these measures, add them up, and then multiply the result by 10, as you see here:
Raw
|
Final
|
||||
As
of May 31, 2015
|
Measure
|
Base
|
Score
|
Weight
|
Score
|
Hillary's
margin versus GOP leader (Walker)
|
7.0%
|
0%
|
7.0%
|
50%
|
3.5
|
Hillary's
favorability rating
|
46.9%
|
50%
|
-3.1%
|
25%
|
-0.8
|
Obama's
approval rating
|
46.1%
|
50%
|
-3.9%
|
15%
|
-0.6
|
Econometer
|
100.2
|
100
|
0.2
|
10%
|
0.0
|
Sum
|
2.2
|
||||
HILLOMETER
|
22
|
Right
now, the Hillometer stands at +22. (See the Hillometer graphic at the top of the right hand column.) That
is a good, solid number; it is driven by her wide margin (47% to 40% in
national polling, +7 points) over Scott Walker, the GOP leader in the national
polls this month. Both Hillary’s
favorability rating and Obama’s approval rating are below 50% and are thus
negatives, and the Econometer indicates the economy has not changed since her
launch in mid-April.
 |
| Image from slate.com |
I
would surmise that +70 is about the highest possible score she could
achieve. For the Hillometer to reach
+70, for example, her lead would have to be 10 points; both her favorability
and Obama’s approval rating would have to hit 50%; and the Econometer would
have to climb to 120. If she attained a
+70, she would beat the GOP nominee by a landslide.
When
we get closer to the election, we will add “lead over major GOP rival in swing
states” as a new measure. At this
juncture there is simply too little head-to-head polling at the state level to
incorporate that measure. We will do so
when the GOP nominee is either established, or becomes obvious. Ultimately, the election will come down to
the usual suspects, the 12 or so swing states that have decided all recent
elections.
We
now have ten declared candidates, eight for the GOP and two Democrats. Only two potential major candidates, Mitt
Romney and Paul Ryan, have officially declared they are out. Lindsay Graham and Rick Perry are expected to
announce over the next few days. Plenty
of other leading contenders have yet to announce, including Jeb Bush, Scott
Walker and Marco Rubio – and I am sticking to my prediction that one of those
three will ultimately be the GOP nominee.
Date
|
In/Out
|
Party
|
|
Paul
Ryan
|
Jan 12
|
OUT
|
GOP
|
Mitt
Romney
|
Jan 30
|
OUT
|
GOP
|
Ted
Cruz
|
Mar 23
|
IN
|
GOP
|
Rand
Paul
|
Apr 7
|
IN
|
GOP
|
Hillary
Clinton
|
Apr 19
|
IN
|
DEM
|
Marco
Rubio
|
Apr 20
|
IN
|
GOP
|
Bernie
Sanders
|
Apr 30
|
IN
|
DEM
|
Ben
Carson
|
May 4
|
IN
|
GOP
|
Carly
Fiorina
|
May 4
|
IN
|
GOP
|
Mike
Huckabee
|
May 5
|
IN
|
GOP
|
Rick
Santorum
|
May 27
|
IN
|
GOP
|
George
Pataki
|
May 28
|
IN
|
GOP
|
Santorum
was the second leading delegate grabber in 2012, and by tradition he should be
the frontrunner for the nomination. But
his ascendance then was far more about the weakness of the field, particularly
on the far right side, than about his appeal.
In many respects, he was the last Tea Partier standing after the GOP
examined and then tossed out Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and
Rick Perry. The GOP field on the far
right is far more compelling this time around.
 |
| Image from crooksandliars.com |
George
Pataki is yet another former New York Governor who had trouble pulling the
trigger, and he picked an odd time to do so.
He might have been a serious challenger to George W. Bush in 2000, but
now his brand of moderate Republicanism is far out of favor. Oddly, Pataki is probably closer to where the
country is than any other candidate – center left on social issues and center
right on the economy – but that is not the path to the presidency these days,
or even the Senate or House.
On
the Trail and the Latest National, Iowa and New Hampshire Polls
Hillary
Clinton announced in mid-April and promptly disappeared. Not exactly, of course, but she has yet to stage
a major rally, yet to take a strong position on a leading issue of the day
(e.g., the trade bill), yet to confront directly the issues hanging over her
head (e.g., the Clinton Foundation funding controversies) and indeed, she is
largely ignoring the national media. She
is making appearances in early primary states with small groups of voters,
bantering with them easily, and parrying with the national media as it hovers
nearby. All of this is intentional, of
course, as the Clinton campaign sees no reason to engage more deeply, with no
competition in sight.
Bernie
Sanders entered the Democratic race at the end of April, and while his
announcement was enough to push him into double digits, this news, in reality,
barely registered a ripple. No
Democratic contender can make a dent in this race unless Elizabeth Warren does
a complete about face and enters. Warren
is no longer even included in most polling, and Clinton continues to dominate.
NATIONAL
|
Apr '15
|
May '15
|
IOWA
|
Apr '15
|
May '15
|
NH
|
Apr '15
|
May '15
|
||
Clinton
|
63
|
61
|
Clinton
|
60
|
60
|
Clinton
|
45
|
57
|
||
Sanders
|
6
|
14
|
Sanders
|
8
|
15
|
Sanders
|
12
|
16
|
||
Biden
|
10
|
13
|
Biden
|
6
|
11
|
Biden
|
7
|
4
|
||
Webb
|
1
|
2
|
O'Malley
|
4
|
3
|
O'Malley
|
4
|
2
|
||
O'Malley
|
3
|
1
|
Webb
|
0
|
3
|
Webb
|
2
|
1
|
||
Other/NA
|
17
|
9
|
Other/NA
|
22
|
8
|
Other/NA
|
30
|
20
|
On
the GOP side, Jeb Bush is taking a beating for being unable to answer smoothly the
most basic questions tossed his way, the ones to which, in theory, he should be
able to recite a safe answer in mantra form, such as, “Based on what you know
today, would you have gone to war with Iraq in 2003?” He bungled this one not once, but twice, and,
for good measure, threw in that the voice he listens to the most on Middle Eastern
affairs is none other than his brother.
And I don’t mean Neil.
 |
| Image from The Washington Post |
This
has hurt him, raising questions about his judgment, his acumen and his ability
on his feet. Not to mention in the
polls, where he has never caught fire, either nationally or in Iowa. And his limited presence in the latter is
causing the inevitable question of whether he is, in effect, skipping it for
the friendlier terrain of New Hampshire.
He is denying that, but the lack of Iowa action thus far is speaking
much louder.
Marco
Rubio continues to rise, Scott Walker has opened up some space in Iowa, and New
Hampshire is a flat-out horse race. Jeb
Bush has dropped mightily in Iowa, putting him in a precarious position. If Rubio thrashes him in Iowa – even if he
loses to Walker – it will position him well for New Hampshire and the home
state showdown in Florida.
ATIONAL
|
Apr '15
|
May '15
|
IOWA
|
Apr '15
|
May '15
|
NH
|
Apr '15
|
May '15
|
||
Walker
|
13
|
14
|
Walker
|
16
|
21
|
Bush
|
14
|
13
|
||
Rubio
|
9
|
13
|
Rubio
|
12
|
13
|
Walker
|
20
|
12
|
||
Bush
|
14
|
11
|
Paul
|
8
|
13
|
Rubio
|
10
|
12
|
||
Huckabee
|
8
|
10
|
Cruz
|
7
|
12
|
Paul
|
14
|
11
|
||
Carson
|
7
|
10
|
Huckabee
|
9
|
11
|
Trump
|
0
|
7
|
||
Paul
|
10
|
8
|
Carson
|
7
|
7
|
Cruz
|
12
|
6
|
||
Cruz
|
10
|
7
|
Bush
|
13
|
5
|
Christie
|
7
|
5
|
||
Christie
|
5
|
5
|
Christie
|
5
|
3
|
Carson
|
6
|
5
|
||
Perry
|
3
|
3
|
Perry
|
4
|
3
|
Huckabee
|
5
|
4
|
||
Kasich
|
2
|
3
|
Santorum
|
3
|
2
|
Fiorina
|
3
|
4
|
||
Fiorina
|
1
|
2
|
Fiorina
|
2
|
2
|
Perry
|
4
|
3
|
||
Santorum
|
2
|
1
|
Kasich
|
1
|
2
|
Santorum
|
1
|
2
|
||
Jindal
|
1
|
1
|
Jindal
|
1
|
1
|
Bolton
|
0
|
2
|
||
Graham
|
1
|
1
|
Graham
|
0
|
0
|
Pataki
|
0
|
2
|
||
Other/NA
|
15
|
11
|
Other/NA
|
12
|
5
|
Kasich
|
0
|
1
|
||
Graham
|
0
|
1
|
||||||||
Jindal
|
0
|
0
|
||||||||
Other/NA
|
6
|
10
|
Here
are two dates for your election calendar, and they are fast approaching. August 6th will be the very first
GOP debate. The interesting fight, such
as it is, involves who will make the stage.
The GOP poo-bahs are limiting it to the top ten in the field by the
polls, which actually might bump a name or three off, depending on who finally
ends up declaring.
The
other date is August 8, the date of the Iowa straw poll. Do you remember who won in 2012? Yes, it was Michelle Bachmann. Jeb Bush has already declared he will not
participate, leaving the field to the Tea Party candidate of its choice. Bachmann ended up sixth in the Iowa caucus
five months after the straw poll, and dropped out the day after. So that gives you some idea of the predictive
power of the straw poll.
