Suddenly
it is a lot more fun to be Barack Obama.
And it’s even a bit better to be John Boehner….in part because it is a
lot worse to be Mitch McConnell.
The
economy has officially taken off, and you don’t really need the “Econometer” to
know it. While my invented statistic has
indeed soared past 100, it does not take a fancy statistic to see that the
price of gas is down, employment is up, income is up, and America’s collective
wallet is feeling fuller.
"I've got to admit, it's getting better!" |
And
with it goes Barack Obama’s approval rating, which continues to rise and now
even tops 50 in the occasional poll, while averaging 46% for a second month and
a -3% net, a marked improvement over the 43%/-9% he was scoring in the last six
months of 2014. Those numbers led (in
part) to the thumping of the Dems in November, but since then life has been
anything but rosy for the GOP.
The
much-ballyhooed GOP-controlled Congress is having trouble getting out of the
gate. They have yet to pass a
significant piece of legislation. Only
the fabled Keystone Pipeline, a largely symbolic program, is close, and Obama
is poised to veto (with no chance for the GOP to override the veto.) A bill to ban abortions after 20-weeks,
viewed as an easy pass for the House, was canceled after GOP moderates (yes,
there are a few) revolted. And perhaps
most intriguing is the dance over funding the Department of Homeland Security,
which will put the GOP’s fissures under the national microscope soon enough.
You
will recall that in December, the lame-duck Congress managed to pass a Budget
bill that approved spending for all departments through next September, thus
avoiding a government shutdown threat.
The catch was that one department was exempted from this agreement, the
Department of Homeland Security, as the GOP scrambled for a way to protest
meaningfully Obama’s executive action on immigration. The thought was, somehow the GOP could
prevent the enforcement of the action by denying funding for it within the DHS
budget. This was a fairly far-fetched
idea to begin with, since the immigration department is self-funded through its
own fees.
The
GOP’s dubious strategy faced another challenge when the Charlie Hebdo murders
occurred – who wanted to be denying funding for Homeland Security in the face
of a huge international terrorism story?
"This is no fun at all!" |
And
now the GOP is in a box. The House
indeed passed a bill the included riders to gut the immigration action, which
has no chance of securing 60 votes in the Senate (or the 67 required to override
a certain Obama veto.) And here is where
it gets interesting. Boehner has no
interest in doing the hard labor of finding a way to water down his bill and
get it through. He wants Mitch McConnell
to experience that special pain. He
chortled mightily about McConnell: “He has
a tough job!” McConnell, of course,
wants the House to fix its own bill. At
this point, with a February 27th deadline looming, there is no path
forward to break the logjam. The
Democrats watch with mounting amusement.
Stay
tuned on this one. And on the
horizon? At some point this spring, the
Supreme Court will rule on the constitutionality of the Obamacare subsidies in
states that chose not to create their own exchange. With Obamacare firmly entrenched and millions
of Americans benefiting, the GOP has absolutely no plan to deal with the
suddenly unpalatable consequences of the Court actually ruling against
Obamacare. Already one major GOP claim –
that Obamacare was “ruining the economy” – has been completely refuted (see:
Econometer). I’m sure John Boehner is
ever so quietly rooting for the Court to let those subsidies stand.
"Bye bye!" |
In
the meantime, the initial baby steps in sorting out the 2016 field have begun,
with the only public movement being the separate announcements by the 2012 GOP
ticket -- Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan – that they are both officially out of the
race. That narrows the GOP field to
about 20! Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is
taking her sweet time to announce her own near-certain candidacy, and why not?
OBAMA APPROVAL RATING
Obama’s
momentum continues as his negative inches toward zero. A surging economy combined with ignoring a
highly unpopular Congress turns out to be a pretty strong combination. If he gets to 50%, you may actually see him
on the campaign trail for Hillary in 2016 – at her request.
Obama
Approval Rating
|
Election Day 2012
|
10-Nov
|
8-Dec
|
12-Jan
|
10-Feb
|
Approve
|
49.6
|
43.1
|
43.8
|
45.7
|
46.3
|
Disapprove
|
47.4
|
52.4
|
52.1
|
50.7
|
49.3
|
Net
|
2.2
|
-9.3
|
-8.3
|
-5.0
|
-3.1
|
ECONOMETER
Nothing
like gas prices dropping like a stone and another solid (if not spectacular)
GDP report to propel the Econometer ever northward. Consumer confidence is soaring as well. Do you remember that Mitt Romney promised to
get the unemployment rate down below 6% within two years? Great job, Mitt, you did it, even faster than
promised! Who knew that your secret
plan was to lose?
Econometer
|
Election Day 2012
|
10-Nov
|
8-Dec
|
12-Jan
|
10-Feb
|
Econometer
|
0.0
|
82.1
|
89.4
|
99.9
|
108.8
|
Unemployment Rate
|
7.9
|
5.8
|
5.8
|
5.6
|
5.7
|
Consumer Confidence
|
73.1
|
94.5
|
88.7
|
92.6
|
102.9
|
Price of Gas
|
3.71
|
3.29
|
2.94
|
2.52
|
2.17
|
Dow Jones
|
13,330
|
16,836
|
17,758
|
17,693
|
17,543
|
GDP
|
3.1
|
3.5
|
3.9
|
5.0
|
2.6
|
OBAMACARE RATINGS
What
if it turns out that America actually comes to like Obamacare? That may happen sooner than you think. After all, the net negative is down to a -7%,
a marked jump in the last month. Will it
continue?
Obamacare
|
Election Day 2012
|
10-Nov
|
8-Dec
|
12-Jan
|
10-Feb
|
For/Favor
|
40.0
|
38.3
|
40.3
|
37.7
|
42.0
|
Oppose/Against
|
50.8
|
51.7
|
54.0
|
49.3
|
49.0
|
Net
|
-10.8
|
-13.4
|
-13.7
|
-11.7
|
-7.0
|
CONGRESSIONAL GENERIC
BALLOT
Should
we really be surprised that the Dems are now ahead of the GOP in the generic
ballot? That didn’t take very long.
Generic
Ballot
|
Election Day 2012
|
10-Nov
|
8-Dec
|
12-Jan
|
10-Feb
|
Democrat
|
46.3
|
43.0
|
40.3
|
39.0
|
39.3
|
Republican
|
46.0
|
44.8
|
41.8
|
39.2
|
37.8
|
Net
|
0.3
|
-1.8
|
-1.5
|
-0.2
|
1.5
|
2016 PRESIDENTIAL RACE
Mitt
Romney’s brief flirtation with a third run for the presidency jolted the GOP
race for an instant, as reflected in his standing in these very early
polls. Jeb Bush will likely ascend to
the top of the charts over the next month, but the field remains the very
definition of “wide open.” The
Democrats, on the other hand, are poised for the opposite, a “coronation” of
Hillary.
12-Jan
|
10-Feb
|
12-Jan
|
10-Feb
|
|||
Clinton
|
63
|
59
|
Romney
|
20
|
25
|
|
Warren
|
11
|
13
|
Bush
|
14
|
13
|
|
Biden
|
11
|
11
|
Carson
|
7
|
10
|
|
Cuomo
|
2
|
4
|
Huckabee
|
7
|
9
|
|
Sanders
|
4
|
3
|
Paul
|
7
|
8
|
|
Webb
|
2
|
2
|
Walker
|
5
|
8
|
|
O'Malley
|
1
|
1
|
Cruz
|
5
|
7
|
|
Schweitzer
|
1
|
Christie
|
9
|
5
|
||
All other
|
Rubio
|
4
|
4
|
|||
Ryan
|
6
|
3
|
||||
Perry
|
4
|
3
|
||||
Jindal
|
2
|
2
|
||||
Kasich
|
2
|
1
|
||||
Santorum
|
2
|
1
|
||||
All other
|
6
|
1
|
A different perspective: "Booming" for Wall Street, .01%, corps et al-Not so much for the 99.9%, imo/observation
ReplyDeleteYou are correct. Tell me how we have a booming economy when nearly 50 % of Americans are still on food stamps. Retail stores are closing by the dozens all over the country. Now that is what I would call not booming.
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