2015 Hall of Fame Predictions: Three Will Get In and Ten Worthies Will Be Denied, Crowded Out by Steroid Abusers and a Silly "Max Ten" Voting Rule

It seems quite clear by now exactly how Hall of Fame voters will deal with the steroids era, and the answer is:  “harshly.”  While there is a subset of voters for whom all that matters is what happened “between the lines,” the majority are quite willing to penalize the known abusers and deny them admission to the Hall of Fame.  While many (including me) find this stance admirable, one unintended consequence is that the abusers with the gaudiest stats will remain on the ballot, in some cases quite possibly for another decade.

And that creates a major problem for the Hall of Fame given the limit of 10 votes per voter.  With Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa still on the ballot (Rafael Palmiero was ejected last year), and now joined by Gary Sheffield, hundreds of votes will be cast for many years for these tainted candidates who have no chance of making the Hall.  And those votes create a logjam.  This year’s ballot contains 34 names, and excluding the steroids gang, at least 13 candidates who are worthy Hall of Famers (and several others that deserve some consideration).  Over the next five years, 11 more deserving candidates will become eligible.  Barring a rules change eliminating the 10-max cap, I can’t see how these 24 players will all find their rightful place in the Hall.

We can’t do much about that except lobby for such a change.  For now, this analysis will focus on answering two questions:  who will be elected to the Hall of Fame this year, and who should be elected?

So let’s break down all 34 players on the ballot:

·         Group 1 answers the first question:  “Who Will Be Elected”:  My assessment is that the newest members of the Hall of Fame will be Craig Biggio and first-balloters Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez.  Biggio just missed last year and Johnson and Martinez are both nearly as certain as Greg Maddux was last year, and even stronger candidates than Tom Glavine, who also made it in on the first ballot in 2014.

·         Group 2 answers the second question:  “Who (Else) Should be Elected But Will Be Passed Over”:  Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Lee Smith, Curt Schilling, Edgar Martinez, Alan Trammell, Mike Mussina, Jeff Kent and newcomer John Smoltz.  This exceptional group is the one being punished most by the steroid guys. 

·         Group 3 players are “Ballot-Worthy, But Not Hall-Worthy”:  Fred McGriff, Don Mattingly, Larry Walker and newcomers Carlos Delgado, Brian Giles, Nomar Garciaparra, Tom Gordon and Troy Percival.  McGriff is the quintessential borderline candidate – in fact, last year I thought he was worthy – but at this point in time, you have to be better than borderline-plus to get in.  The others are excellent players, at times even dominant at times.  But not quite good enough.

·         Group 4 is comprised of “The Steroid Guys/Ballot Cloggers”:  Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and newcomer Gary Sheffield.  The first four will continue to see a slow decline in their totals, and McGwire will almost fall off the ballot (but not quite).  But this group will collectively claim over 500 votes.  Some voters may even put all five on their ballot…if you overlook the steroids, all have compelling stats.

·         Group 5 members “Never Should Have Been on the Ballot to Begin With”: Darin Erstad, Jason Schmidt, Cliff Floyd, Jermaine Dye, Rich Aurilia, Tony Clark, Aaron Boone and Eddie Guardado.  All of them made at least one All-Star team, and thus experienced at least a modicum of greatness, but none of them will even come close to getting 5% of the vote to keep them on the ballot another year, and several will get no votes at all.  Why a clogged ballot should even contain these names is a mystery to me.

Not surprisingly, last year set a record with 8.36 votes per voter.  I cannot fathom why the average was not 10.0.  I envision another year with 8+ votes, and here is my view on how it will shake out on Tuesday.

	Proj.	Proj
	%	Votes
	2015	2015
Randy Johnson	96%	548
Pedro Martinez	95%	542
Craig Biggio	83%	474
Mike Piazza	68%	388
Jeff Bagwell	65%	371
John Smoltz	65%	371
Tim Raines	50%	286
Barry Bonds (st)	33%	188
Roger Clemens (st)	33%	188
Curt Schilling	30%	171
Lee Smith	30%	171
Edgar Martinez	27%	154
Mike Mussina	25%	143
Alan Trammell	24%	137
Jeff Kent	23%	131
Gary Sheffield (st)	18%	103
Fred McGriff	14%	80
Carlos Delgado	14%	80
Larry Walker	12%	69
Mark McGwire (st)	9%	51
Don Mattingly	7%	40
Sammy Sosa	4%	23
Brian Giles	3%	17
Nomar Garciaparra	3%	17
Tom Gordon	0.5%	3
Troy Percival	0.5%	3
Darin Ersted	0.1%	1
Aaron Boone	0.1%	1
Jason Schmidt	0.0%	0
Cliff Floyd	0.0%	0
Jermaine Dye	0.0%	0
Rich Aurilia	0.0%	0
Tony Clark	0.0%	0
Eddie Guardado	0.0%	0
# Votes		4752
# Voters		571
Votes per voter		8.32

Before we get into it in detail, here’s a note.  You will see references below to a “TG Score.”  What is it?  I (I am “TG”) have developed a regression equation that “predicts” whether one will/should make the Hall of Fame.  The independent variables for hitters are hits and OPS+, and there are additional positive bumps for being a catcher, second baseman or shortstop.  For pitchers, the independent variables are ERA+ and innings pitched.  Essentially, both equations have one measure for “longevity” and another for “excellence” and no other variable entered the equation. 

That is, with one exception:  there is a variable called “Problem” which is a rather tame reference to a player who has been tainted in some way, whether via gambling (e.g., Shoeless Joe Jackson, Pete Rose, Eddie Cicotte), steroids/HGH (the gang mentioned above) or some other strange issue (like Carl Mays, who killed Ben Chapman with a beanball).  It is an amazingly powerful variable, in that it discounts an affected player so much his TG Score invariably drops below the key level of 50….a score above 50 is usually “Hall Worthy.”

In the past few years, Wins Above Replacement Value (WAR) has soared in popularity.  As it happens, WAR and the TG Score are highly correlated (excluding the “Problem” variable, which WAR of course does not have), even though they are calculated very differently.  I include WAR scores in the analysis below as well…a WAR score of 50+ is also basically HOF-worthy.

So let’s take it position by position.

CATCHERS

I’m going to reference the chart below, and a similar one for each position.  I’ve compared the only catcher on the ballot, Mike Piazza, with three groups of catchers:  1) all Hall of Fame catchers (the line labeled “HOF”), 2)  catchers who are in the HOF that I consider “borderline” (by virtue of having a TG Score of around 50) and 3)  other catchers who are NOT in the HOF who were also borderline (also by having a TG Score of around 50; I used Ted Simmons, Lance Parrish, Thurmon Munson and Bill Freehan).

Mike Piazza is clearly a HOF’er.  He is perhaps the greatest hitting catcher of all time, as his stats dwarf those of the average catcher in the HOF.  This one is not even close.

Catchers	OPS+	Hits	Avg.	HR	RBI	WAR	Hall Score	TG Vote
Piazza	142	2127	0.308	427	1335	59	93	Yes
HOF	119	1773	0.285	94	1013	49	55
TG borderline HOF (41-62)	127	1558	0.301	113	890	45	51
Borderline not in HOF*	113	1851	0.273	23	980	43	51

 * Simmons, Parrish, Munson, Freehan

FIRST BASEMEN

Jeff Bagwell in the camp of “certain.”  Like Piazza among catchers, his stats are a cut above the average first base HOFer, and way ahead of the borderline groups.

Fred McGriff is a very tough call for me.  His stats generally fall in line with the “borderline” groups, with both a WAR and TG Hall Score just above 50.  He does have homer and RBI stats in line with Bagwell, but his 134 OPS+ is below average for an HOF’er and well below Bagwell’s.  Bagwell has an 80 WAR, McGriff 51.  But this was my toughest call.

Carlos Delgado is similar to McGriff in many ways, but below him on every stat.  Which makes it easier to say “no” to him.

Mark McGwire has Hall-worthy stats (some out there think not, but the 163 OPS+ and 63 WAR are superb), but the steroids rap voids them and him from consideration.

Don Mattingly was effectively robbed of the second half of his career with a bad back, and as a consequence all his numbers fall short of the mark.  But at least he is worthy of consideration.  I can’t say the same for first-timer Tony Clark.

First Basemen	OPS+	Hits	Avg.	HR	RBI	WAR	Hall Score	TG Vote
Bagwell	149	2314	0.297	449	1529	80	63	Yes
HOF	142	2402	0.308	296	1434	66	60
McGwire**	163	1626	0.263	583	1414	63	51/(32)	No
TG borderline HOF (46-53)	138	2198	0.297	363	1391	54	49
Borderline not in HOF*	131	2248	0.297	250	1180	53	44
McGriff	134	2490	0.284	493	1550	51	56	Yes
Delgado	138	2038	0.280	473	1512	44	43	No
Mattingly	128	2153	0.307	222	1099	40	38	No
Clark, T.	112	1188	0.262	251	824	16	2	No

 * D. Allen, W. Clark, Grace, Garvey, Olerud, Hernandez

** Steroids tainted

SECOND BASEMEN

Craig Biggio has been passed over twice now for no good reason.  Last year he missed by two votes.  He certainly deserves entry, with a WAR and TG Score each above 65, which is terrific.  His OPS+ is only average but his consistent excellence over a long career gives him a leg up on most second basemen in the Hall.

Jeff Kent is another tough call but I give him the nod.  It is hard to deny his feat of being the all-time leading home run hitter among second baseman, and he is third in RBI behind Hornsby and Lajoie.  He was simply one of the greatest power-hitting second basemen ever.  I’ve often thought that Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich were HOF-worthy and Kent’s stats exceeds theirs.

Second Basemen	OPS+	Hits	Avg.	HR	RBI	WAR	Hall Score	TG Vote
HOF	120	2405	0.299	152	1084	69	54
Biggio	111	3060	0.281	291	1175	66	72	Yes
TG borderline HOF (44-62)	113	2584	0.301	161	1070	64	54
Kent	123	2461	0.290	377	1518	55	57	Yes
Borderline not in HOF*	116	2137	0.273	174	878	46	40

* Whitaker, Grich, Randolph

SHORTSTOPS

Alan Trammell is on the ballot for the 14^th time.  I’ve long thought he was worthy.  His stats are practically identical with the average shortstop HOF’er, except for those 185 homers which are nearly double his HOF peers.  Trammell was outshone in his career by Cal Ripken, Jr., and then eclipsed by the Jeter/A.Rod/Nomar trio of outstanding hitting shortstops.  But he belongs, for sure. 

There was a time when Nomar Garciaparra looked like a certain Hall of Famer.  He outshone Derek Jeter offensively in those early years.  But like Don Mattingly, injuries robbed him of the second half of his career and put him short of the mark for both WAR and TG Hall Score.

Rich Aurilia should not be on the ballot.

Shortstops	OPS+	Hits	Avg.	HR	RBI	WAR	Hall Score	TG Vote
Trammell	110	2365	0.285	185	1003	67	58	Yes
HOF	109	2335	0.286	117	1056	63	54
TG borderline HOF (43-53)	105	2248	0.284	59	939	54	49
Garciaparra	124	1747	0.313	229	936	44	31	No
Borderline not in HOF*	103	2143	0.283	129	887	39	42
Aurilio	99	1576	0.275	186	756	18	22	No

* Bartels, Stephens, Fernandez, Dark, Concepcion

THIRD BASEMEN

The Hall of Fame has always been tough on third basemen, with only 11 inductees, the fewest of any position.  But Aaron Boone is a head-scratcher for being on the ballot.  He was a below average hitter who had a short career.  I’ll always love him for that magical night in October, 2004 when he ended one of the greatest games I have ever seen, but he is simply not worthy of serious consideration.

Third Basemen	OPS+	Hits	Avg.	HR	RBI	WAR	Hall Score	TG Vote
HOF	124	2352	0.296	228	1203	67	41
TG borderline HOF (28-37)	121	2313	0.284	235	1225	66	37
Borderline not in HOF*	115	2223	0.273	290	1155	55	28
Boone, A.	94	1017	0.263	126	555	14	-30	No

* B. Bell, D. Evans, Madlock, Nettles, Boyer

OUTFIELDERS/DHs

The two best candidates in the traditional power positions are not traditional at all, but they still get my vote:  Edgar Martinez and Tim Raines.  Martinez gets dissed as a full-time DH, and Raines is undervalued as a speedster, but both have WAR’s and TG Scores well above the borderline HOFers and stack up well with the average outfield HOFer.

Larry Walker is a borderline candidate…he has a high WAR and an on-the-cusp TG score of 49.  But he suffers from “Coors Field Syndrome,” with an otherworldly home OPS of 1.068 and a merely very good .865 on the road.  Good…not good enough.  Face it, with so many derserving candidates, this is not a good time to be a borderline candidate.

Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa…deservedly shunned again…and again…and will be for another decade.  Welcome, Gary Sheffield, to this misbegotten steroid club.  Sheffield will get his share of votes, and never exceed that total again.

Cliff Floyd, Jermaine Dye and Darin Erstad should not be on the ballot.

Bonds**	182	2935	0.298	762	1996	158	1.16/33	No
HOF	137	2566	0.314	240	1288	70	61
Walker, Larry	140	2160	0.313	383	1311	67	49	No
Raines	123	2605	0.294	170	980	65	50	Yes
Martinez, Edgar	147	2247	0.312	309	1261	64	59	Yes
Sheffield**	140	2689	0.292	509	1676	60	68/-15	No
Sosa**	128	2408	0.273	609	1667	55	47/-36	No
TG borderline HOF (48-52)	130	2448	0.309	198	1165	51	50
Giles	136	1847	0.291	287	1078	51	36	No
Borderline not in HOF*	126	2527	0.286	310	1352	49	50
Erstad	93	1697	0.282	124	699	32	-11	No
Floyd	119	1479	0.278	233	865	26	10	No
Dye	111	1779	0.274	325	1072	20	8	No

* Staub. Oliver, Parker, Evans, R. Smith

**  Steroids tainted

STARTING PITCHERS

This is a wonderful time to be celebrating the great starting pitchers of the 1990/2000 era.  Last year Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine received first ballot nods, and this year Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez will receive the same.  So should John Smoltz and Mike Mussina, but they will likely be shut out again.

Randy Johnson may be the last pitcher to make the Hall with 300 wins.  And he sustained a 135 ERA+ over this career and a 102 WAR, amazing figures.  I never saw Walter Johnson pitch, but in my lifetime no pitcher ever struck more fear into batters than Johnson.  (Remember John Kruk in the 1993 All Star Game?)  He’s a shoo-in.

(At this point, I should reference my post from 2013 that sought to answer the question, “What is the new ‘automatic ticket’ to the HOF if 300 wins is nearing extinction?”  Here’s the post where you can find the answer:  http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2013/07/automatic-ticket-for-starting-pitchers.html)

Pedro Martinez falls in the “Koufax” category of a relatively short career but an overwhelming one, as evidenced by his 154 ERA+.  That number is, quite simply, higher than any other Hall of Famer’s.  Among eligible pitchers, only Mariano Rivera has a higher one (205).  Pedro is a shoo-in as well.

Mike Mussina, in my view, is a stronger candidate than was Tom Glavine; he has a better ERA+, won-loss percentage, WAR and TG Score, but Glavine got in in 2013 simply because of the mystical power of the 300-win mark.  It was ludicrous that he received 525 votes to Mussina’s 113.  Moose should make it, but he will be denied for some time to come.

Curt Schilling is deserving of the Hall of Fame.  His OPS+ is a sterling 128 and his WAR is 76, along with a TG Score of 51.  And if you like postseason performances, his stats are far phenomenal:  11-2 with a 2.23 ERA.

John Smoltz is kind of in the Dennis Eckersley mold, a big-time starter who became a reliever later in his career.  (And, unlike Eck, returned to being a starter and seamlessly reached 200+ innings from ages 38 to 40.)  He excelled at both roles, though that very success diminished his statistical case for the Hall, “limiting” him to 213 wins and 154 saves.  But you can’t deny that 70 WAR, and if it is your pleasure, consider his versatility, willingness to do what was best for the team, and excellent post-season stats (15-4 with a 2.67).  He should be in, but I doubt he will make it on the first ballot.

Roger Clemens…nope.

And Jason Schmidt does not belong on the ballot.

	W	L	PCT.	ERA+	WAR	TG Score	TG Vote
Clemens**	354	184	0.658	143	134	122/77	No
Johnson, R.	303	166	0.646	135	102	98	Yes
Martinez, P.	219	100	0.687	154	84	91	Yes
Mussina	270	153	0.638	123	83	77	Yes
Schilling	216	146	0.597	128	76	51	Yes
Smoltz	213	155	0.579	125	70	44	Yes
HOF	269	185	0.596	122	69	65
HOF	266	184	0.596	122	65	64
My borderline HOF (48-52)	219	154	0.599	123	57	50
Borderline not in HOF*	195	124	0.612	117	51	42
Schmidt	130	96	0.575	110	30	6	No

* Tiant, Guidry, Gooden, Cone, Key

** Steriods tainted

RELIEF PITCHERS

I do not have a model for relief pitchers, so no TG Score here.  There have simply not been enough of them to comprise a good data set for regression modeling.  But I do give you the stats below, ranking the Top 10 relievers of all-time by WAR.  (At the bottom of the chart, I’ve added the three other relievers who are on the ballot as first-timers, Troy Percival, Tom Gordon and Eddie Guardado.)  If you ever wondered if Mariano Rivera was truly the best reliever of all time, stare at this chart awhile. 

I think Lee Smith makes the grade based on this information.  He has nearly 500 saves, which is 3^rd all-time, a 132 ERA+ which is better than Gossage or Fingers.  His WAR of 30 exceeds Sutter and Fingers.  He should be in.

Troy Percival was a fine reliever and Tom Gordon did well as another combo reliever and starter.  But it is hard to build a case for either of them, which becomes clear when look at the chart.  Percival’s WAR was lower than any of them by a good margin.  Gordon has a decent WAR but much of that was generated as a starter.  He’s no Eckersley or Smoltz.  Eddie Guardado is one of the weaker candidates ever to appear on a ballot….he was an okay reliever but had a career 4.31 ERA!

Relief Pitchers	Saves	ERA	ERA+	WAR	HOF
Mariano Rivera	652	2.06	205	57	Not Yet Eligible
Rich Gossage	310	2.77	126	40	Yes
Hoyt Wilhelm	227	2.49	147	40	Yes
Trevor Hoffman	601	2.87	141	31	Not Yet Eligible
Lee Smith	478	2.98	132	30	Yes
Billy Wagner	422	2.31	187	30	Not Yet Eligible
John Franco	424	2.89	137	26	No
Bruce Sutter	300	2.83	136	25	Yes
Rollie Fingers	341	2.73	120	24	Yes
Dan Quisenberry	244	2.76	146	24	No
Troy Percival	358	3.17	146	18	No
Tom Gordon	158	3.96	113	35	No
Eddie Guardado	187	4.31	109	-3	No

And so, I give you a sorting out of a ballot clogged with too many worthy candidates chasing too few slots, further clogged by steroid abusers and a bunch of players who have no business being on the ballot.  Let us hope the HOF cleans up this mess soon enough by ridding itself of the 10-vote max cap and not going through the lunacy of the Aaron Boone’s and the Eddie Guardado’s.

And then we’d see a parade of terrific candidates take their rightful place in Cooperstown.