Shortly
after the Democrats lost control of the House in 1994 for the first time in 40
years, Bill Clinton felt compelled to proclaim at a news conference “I’m still
relevant.”
 |
| "Who needs Congress?" |
And
guess what? Americans kind of like
it. They may not always approve of his
methods, but the needle is clearly moving up.
Obama’s approval rating, stuck at exactly 43% from June to December of
2014, is up to 46% in the last month, including several Rasmussen (which
usually notoriously favor the GOP) readings in early January showing him at
50-51%.
From
the euphoria of Election Night, when the GOP claimed both houses of Congress
for the first time in eight years, things have not gone well for the GOP. The era of good feelings that John Boehner
and Mitch McConnell have desperately tried to usher in has been derailed in
many ways. Let us count: Obama is not playing along, as per above; the
economy is suddenly roaring (5% GDP growth, 5.6% unemployment), undercutting
key GOP messages; the Tea Party wing of the party is cranky enough to have
mounted a clumsy, embarrassing (and unsuccessful) challenge to Boehner’s
leadership; the #3 ranked GOP rep Steve Scalise of Louisiana got caught in the
vortex of a scandal stemming from his decision to speak to a Klannish organization
a dozen years ago; and now the Heritage Foundation is bummed because the big
GOP lead-off issue is…drumroll… the Keystone pipeline, a largely symbolic
(rather than bold) first step, and one that Obama will veto anyway. Whew!
 |
| "Control Congress? We can't even control the GOP." |
Might
the GOP have been better positioned for 2016 had they continued as the minority
in the Senate until then? This could be
a classic case of “beware of what you wish for.” Stay tuned….
OBAMA APPROVAL RATING
As
stated, there is discernable upward movement in Obama’s approval numbers for
the first time in a very long time, and his 45.7% rating is his highest since
August, 2013. The net is down to
-5. If the trend continues, 2016
Democratic presidential contenders will have some serious thinking to do about
how far to distance themselves from the Obama presidency in the
year-and-a-half-plus-long campaign they will shortly undertake.
Obama
Approval Rating
|
Election Day 2012
|
5-Oct
|
10-Nov
|
8-Dec
|
12-Jan
|
Approve
|
49.6
|
43.4
|
43.1
|
43.8
|
45.7
|
Disapprove
|
47.4
|
52.5
|
52.4
|
52.1
|
50.7
|
Net
|
2.2
|
-9.1
|
-9.3
|
-8.3
|
-5.0
|
ECONOMETER
The
state of the economy keeps improving, with the “Econometer” rising to +99.9
from an Election Day, 2012 baseline of zero.
Every indicator has improved significantly since then, as seen below,
and that baseline itself was light-years ahead of where it was when Bush handed
Obama the baton in January, 2009 (it was at -73 then). Even other data points that pointed to less
progress, notably personal income, have started to rise. The economy usually plays a key role in any
campaign, and the GOP certainly bludgeoned Obama on the so-called tepid pace of
the recovery in 2010, 2012 and 2014. But
the Dems may fight back on this issue in 2016.
Econometer
|
Election Day 2012
|
5-Oct
|
10-Nov
|
8-Dec
|
12-Jan
|
Econometer
|
0.0
|
73.8
|
82.1
|
89.4
|
99.9
|
Unemployment Rate
|
7.9
|
5.9
|
5.8
|
5.8
|
5.6
|
Consumer Confidence
|
73.1
|
86.0
|
94.5
|
88.7
|
92.6
|
Price of Gas
|
3.71
|
3.47
|
3.29
|
2.94
|
2.52
|
Dow Jones
|
13,330
|
17,066
|
16,836
|
17,758
|
17,693
|
GDP
|
3.1
|
4.2
|
3.5
|
3.9
|
5.0
|
OBAMACARE RATINGS
The
growing strength of the economy has undercut one of the GOP’s key talking
points – that Obamacare is destroying the economy and killing jobs. Neither appear to be true, and the rate of
health care cost increases are in fact the lowest in ages. There may even be some modest upward movement
in approval of the ACA, but the numbers actually vary wildly among the few
polls that ask a variation of that question.
We’ll see how the GOP handles the ACA in Congress, but it already appears
their mode will be more “fix it” than “repeal it.” But Obama has a veto all ready to go if
Congress passes a law to raise the workweek cutoff for health benefits from 30
to 40 hours per week.
Obamacare
|
Election Day 2012
|
5-Oct
|
10-Nov
|
8-Dec
|
12-Jan
|
For/Favor
|
40.0
|
39.4
|
38.3
|
40.3
|
37.7
|
Oppose/Against
|
50.8
|
51.9
|
51.7
|
54.0
|
49.3
|
Net
|
-10.8
|
-12.4
|
-13.4
|
-13.7
|
-11.7
|
CONGRESSIONAL GENERIC
BALLOT
Our
first readings of America’s take on Congress since the election show a leveling
out of the generic ballot between Democrats and the GOP. Obviously it is way too early for this to be
a judgment on GOP control.
Generic
Ballot
|
Election Day 2012
|
5-Oct
|
10-Nov
|
8-Dec
|
12-Jan
|
Democrat
|
46.3
|
41.4
|
43.0
|
40.3
|
39.0
|
Republican
|
46.0
|
43.3
|
44.8
|
41.8
|
39.2
|
Net
|
0.3
|
-1.8
|
-1.8
|
-1.5
|
-0.2
|
2016 PRESIDENTIAL RACE
The
“silent primary” is underway as potential candidates take symbolic steps and
test the waters of donor support. Jeb
Bush quite unexpectedly made the first move, a preemptive strike in setting up
the requisite committee to explore his candidacy, designed to keep Mitt Romney
out and sew up the “mainstream” (read: establishment money) wing of the party
over Chris Christie. Romney, however,
continues to float a potential third run, and Christie continues his appeal to
the hard right by vetoing the so-called “pig bill” in New Jersey (a sop to hard
right Iowan farmers) and hobnobbing with Dallas Cowboys’ (“America’s Team”)
owner Jerry Jones through the NFL playoffs.
Why Christie wants anything to do with the brand-bruised NFL at this
particular time is beyond me, but red state politics will do that to GOP wannabees.
Hillary
still dominates the Dems, and Romney remains ahead of the passel of GOP
hopefuls. Those of you who desire new
faces will not be pleased with the two names atop each of these charts.
8-Dec
|
12-Jan
|
8-Dec
|
12-Jan
|
|||
Clinton
|
61
|
63
|
Romney
|
20
|
20
|
|
Biden
|
12
|
11
|
Bush
|
10
|
14
|
|
Warren
|
9
|
11
|
Christie
|
8
|
9
|
|
Sanders
|
5
|
4
|
Huckabee
|
6
|
7
|
|
Webb
|
1
|
2
|
Paul
|
6
|
7
|
|
Cuomo
|
1
|
2
|
Carson
|
9
|
7
|
|
O'Malley
|
1
|
1
|
Ryan
|
6
|
6
|
|
All other
|
Cruz
|
5
|
5
|
|||
Walker
|
5
|
5
|
||||
Rubio
|
3
|
4
|
||||
Perry
|
3
|
4
|
||||
Kasich
|
2
|
2
|
||||
Jindal
|
2
|
2
|
||||
Santorum
|
2
|
2
|
||||
Fiorina
|
1
|
|||||
Pence
|
1
|
|||||
All other
|
12
|
5
|
