Senate Update Election 2014: Wake Up, Democrats, and Get Working...Republicans Lead 52-48

If you are a Democrat, you may be tired of all those desperate pleas by party stalwarts that clog your email every day.  Whether it comes from Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, or your local Congressman, each one has a subject line with some variation of: “Disaster!” or “Certain Doom!”  They sound hysterical...but actually, what they are saying is getting increasingly close to the mark when it comes to the Senate races.

In the last month the playing field has tilted to the right, and with less than five weeks to go, the GOP has a solid chance of taking the Senate.  If the election were held today, I have the Republicans gaining control of the Senate by a 52-48 margin.  It’s crunch time for Democrats:  time to wake up, pull out the wallets, and hit the phones.

There are now eleven battleground states.  I have added New Hampshire and Kansas to the group (as I previewed in my last update), along with the nine I have previously identified.  The Democrats need to win 6 of them to maintain the Senate at 50-50 plus Joe Biden.  The Republicans also need to win 6 of them to take control at 51-49.  And right now, the GOP is ahead in seven of those battleground races, their strongest position over the last year:

	Oct 17,	Mar 23,	Jul 21,	Sep 2,	Oct 2,
	2013	2014	2014	2014	2014
Democrats Total	52	51	52	51	48
Dem Not Up	34	34	34	34	34
Dem Solid	11	10	11	11	10
Dem Lean	4	2	1	2	3
Dem Toss-up	3	5	6	4	1
Rep Toss-up	2	3	1	3	2
Rep Lean	3	3	1	0	5
Rep Solid	12	13	16	16	15
Rep Not Up	31	30	30	30	30
Republicans Total	48	49	48	49	52

What has changed in the last four weeks?  It’s hard to say.  President Obama’s approval rating has not budged over the past four months, still at 43%.  But the generic ballot has shown modest movement, from the Dems being up by 0.5 points to the GOP now up by 1.4 points.  Not earth-shattering, but that is the type of modest shift than can transform borderline elections.

Of the eleven races, only one is completely unchanged:  Michigan is still a Democrat Lean for Rick Peters.  Two races have moved more in the Democrat’s direction, North Carolina, where Kay Hagan has extended her lead over Thom Tillis, and Kansas, where wildly unpopular incumbent Republican Pat Roberts is in danger of losing to Independent Greg Orman.  Orman’s cause was greatly enhanced when the Democratic candidate, Chip Taylor, dropped out the race a few weeks ago in a purposeful bid to improve the chances of unseating Roberts.  There is no guarantee that Orman will caucus with the Democrats, but I am assuming he will.

But the other eight races have all moved toward the GOP:

·        Four have “flipped” to the GOP column:  Iowa, Alaska, Colorado and Louisiana

·        Three that were “toss-ups” that I had in the GOP column have moved to be GOP Lean:  Arkansas, Georgia and Kentucky

·        And one seat the Democrats are still leading in has gotten tighter, moving from “solid” to “lean”:  New Hampshire

Here is the full chart of every race, and the latest polling in the battleground states, and then follows a brief profile of each battleground race as it stands now.  The blue rows are the solid Democratic races, the white are the 11 battlegrounds, and the red rows are solid Republican.

	Inc.		Retiring/	Dem	Rep	Poll	Current
State	Party	Incumbent	Running	Candidate	Candidate	Margin	Status
Delaware	D	Coons	Running	Coons	Wade		Solid Dem
Hawaii	D	Schatz	Running	Schatz	Cavasso		Solid Dem
Illinois	D	Durbin	Running	Durbin	Oberweis		Solid Dem
Massachusetts	D	Markey	Running	Markey	Herr		Solid Dem
Minnesota	D	Franken	Running	Franken	McFadden		Solid Dem
New Jersey	D	Booker	Running	Booker	Bell		Solid Dem
New Mexico	D	Udall	Running	Udall	Weh		Solid Dem
Oregon	D	Merkley	Running	Merkley	Wehby		Solid Dem
Rhode Island	D	Reed	Running	Reed	Zaccaria		Solid Dem
Virginia	D	Warner	Running	Warner	Gillespie		Solid Dem
New Hampshire	D	Shaheen	Running	Shaheen	Brown	Dem +6	Lean Dem
Michigan	D	Levin	Retiring	Peters	Land	Dem +5	Lean Dem
North Carolina	D	Hagan	Running	Hagan	Tillis	Dem +4	Lean Dem
Kansas	R	Roberts	Running	Orman (I)	Roberts	Ind +3	Tossup Ind
Iowa	D	Harkin	Retiring	Braley	Ernst	Rep +3	Tossup Rep
Alaska	D	Begich	Running	Begich	Sullivan	Rep +4	Lean Rep
Colorado	D	Udall	Running	Udall	Gardner	Rep +4	Lean Rep
Louisiana	D	Landrieu	Running	Landrieu	Cassidy	Rep +4	Lean Rep
Arkansas	D	Pryor	Running	Pryor	Cotton	Rep +4	Lean Rep
Georgia	R	Chambliss	Retiring	Nunn	Perdue	Rep +5	Lean Rep
Kentucky	R	McConnell	Running	Grimes	McConnell	Rep +5	Lean Rep
Alabama	R	Sessions	Running	none	Sessions		Solid Rep
Idaho	R	Risch	Running	Mitchell	Risch		Solid Rep
Maine	R	Collins	Running	Bellows	Collins		Solid Rep
Mississippi	R	Cochran	Running	Childers	Cochran		Solid Rep
Montana	D	Walsh	Retiring	Curtis	Daines		Solid Rep
Nebraska	R	Johanns	Retiring	Domina	Sasse		Solid Rep
Oklahoma	R	Inhofe	Running	Silverstein	Inhofe		Solid Rep
Oklahoma	R	Coburn	Retiring	Johnson	Lankford		Solid Rep
South Carolina	R	Graham	Running	Hutto	Graham		Solid Rep
South Carolina	R	Scott	Running	Dickerson	Scott		Solid Rep
South Dakota	D	Johnson	Retiring	Weiland	Rounds		Solid Rep
Tennessee	R	Alexander	Running	Ball	Alexander		Solid Rep
Texas	R	Cornyn	Running	Alameel	Cornyn		Solid Rep
West Virginia	D	Rockefeller	Retiring	Tennant	Capito		Solid Rep
Wyoming	R	Enzi	Running	Hardy	Enzi		Solid Rep

BATTLEGROUND STATES

Here is a brief review of the nine battleground Senate elections in 2014.  In general, I use the last five non-partisan polls, using only polls in the last month, with a minimum of three.

·        Alaska:  Democratic incumbent Mark Begish will face former Attorney General Daniel S. Sullivan.  Polling in Alaska is very tough for a variety of reasons, and this makes it tough to call.  What polls exist, however, are consistent, with Sullivan leading by 4 points on average.  Lean Republican.

·        Arkansas:  Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor will face Representative Tom Cotton in a red state the GOP considers among the most likely for it to swipe. Cotton’s lead is up to four points in recent polling.  Lean Republican.

·        Colorado. Incumbent Democrat Mark Udall is being challenged by Republican Representative Cory Gardner. Udall did well in polls from the summer, but Gardner has been the consistent leader in September, on average by – yet again – four points.  Lean Republican.

·        Georgia:  Republican David Perdue’s lead over Democrat Michelle Nunn has grown to five points. Lean Republican.

·        Iowa:  Democratic Representative Bruce Braley is in a tough race to inherit the seat currently held by retiring Democrat Tom Harkin, and now trails State Senator Joni Ernst by three points on average.  Toss-up Republican.

·        Kansas.  Independent Greg Orman, as stated, has cleared the field in opposition in incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, and leads by three points on average.  Lean Independent; I’m assuming Orman would caucus with the Democrats..

·        Kentucky:  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has opened up a five point lead over Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lunderman Grimes.  Lean Republican.

·        Louisiana:  Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu is embroiled in a back-and-forth race with GOP challenger Representative Bill Cassidy, with Cassidy now ahead by four points on average.  Louisiana has an odd format…Election Day is more or less an open primary, requiring the winner to attain at least 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff.  Cassidy has cracked the 50% mark in two of the last five polls.  Note:  If on election night, the GOP is up 50-49 and neither Louisianan achieves 50%, we will all have our eyes glued on the run-off to see which party takes the Senate; the run-off will be on December 6, 2014.  Lean Republican.

·        Michigan:  Democratic Representative Gary Peters’ has a growing lead over former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land in the race to replace retiring Democratic incumbent, Carl Levin.   Peters is up by five points on average, and more so in the most recent polls.  Lean Democrat.

·        New Hampshire:  Former Masschusetts Senator Scott Brown has made up some ground in this race, where Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen used to have a double-digit lead; now it is six points.  Lean Democrat.

·        North Carolina:  Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan has expanded her lead over Thom Tillis, Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, now up to a four-point lead.  Lean Democrat.

I have the GOP up 52-48, but most of the races are still in play.  It may come down to the ground game…so get on those phones.