Election 2014 Dashboard...Two Weeks to Go, Too Close to Call...and the Games Have Already Begun

Do you realize nearly two million votes have already been cast for the 2014 midterms?  The election season is well underway, of course, but so is the election itself.  And things are looking good for the GOP...though not the “wave” that some have predicted.  As of now, the GOP will pick up five seats in the Senate to take control, a paltry two in the House, and they will hang on to the majority of the state houses while losing a net three to the Democrats.

	Senate	House	Governors
Democrats Total	48	199	24
Dem Not Up	34	-	7
Dem Solid	10	169	8
Dem Lean	1	22	1
Dem Toss-up	3	8	8
Rep Toss-up	4	3	4
Rep Lean	3	13	2
Rep Solid	15	220	13
Rep Not Up	30	-	7
Republicans Total	52	236	26
Change from current	R+5	R+2	D + 3

Louisiana is tightening, as Mary Landrieu makes a bit of a comeback.  But unless she takes 50% or more of the vote, she is destined to lose a runoff in December when turnout will drop, hurting her chances.  And New Hampshire is also tightening, as Republican Scott Brown has pulled nearly even in his battle with incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.  And in Colorado, Corey Gardner received a little breathing room over Mark Udall, and is now a Lean versus a Toss-up.  All these close races, but little movement over the past week.  The GOP has to like that, and they are also salivating over North Carolina and Kansas, which are even closer than before.

	SENATE BATTLEGROUND RACES (11)
	Incumb.	Dem	Rep	Poll	BTRTN	Change From
State	Party	Candidate	Candidate	Margin	Projection	Last Update
Michigan	D	Peters	Land	D + 9	D Lean	n/c
New Hamp.	D	Shaheen	Brown	D + 1	D Toss-up	From D Lean
N. Carolina	D	Hagan	Tillis	D + 1	D Toss-up	n/c
Kansas	R	Orman (I)	Roberts	I + 1	I Toss-up	n/c
Georgia	R	Nunn	Perdue	Even	R Toss-up	n/c
Louisiana	D	Landrieu	Cassidy	R + 1	R Toss-up	From R Lean
Iowa	D	Braley	Ernst	R + 3	R Toss-up	n/c
Kentucky	R	Grimes	McConnell	R + 3	R Toss-up	n/c
Colorado	D	Udall	Gardner	R + 4	R Lean	From R TU
Alaska	D	Begich	Sullivan	R + 5	R Lean	n/c
Arkansas	D	Pryor	Cotton	R + 6	R Lean	n/c

Twelve Governor races are toss-ups, so many scenarios are possible.  But as of now, the Democrats will pick up a net three seats.

	TIGHEST GOVERNOR RACES (15)
	Incumb.	Dem	Rep	Poll	BTRTN	Change From
State	Party	Candidate	Candidate	Margin	Projection	Last Update
Rhode Island	D	Raimando	Fung	D + 6	D Lean	From D U
Hawaii	D	Ige	Aiona	D + 2	D Toss-up	n/c
Maine	R	Michaud	LePage	D + 2	D Toss-up	n/c
Florida	R	Crist	Scott	D + 2	D Toss-up	n/c
Illinois	D	Quinn	Rauner	D + 2	D Toss-up	n/c
Alaska	R	Walker (I)	Parnell	I + 2	D Toss-up	n/c
Mass.	D	Coakley	Baker	Even	D Toss-up	n/c
Connecticut	D	Malloy	Foley	Even	D Toss-up	n/c
Kansas	R	P. Davis	Brownback	Even	D Toss-up	n/c
Colorado	D	Hickenlooper	Beauprez	R + 1	R Toss-up	From D TU
Wisconsin	R	Burke	Walker	R + 1	R Toss-up	n/c
Georgia	R	Carter	Deal	R + 1	R Toss-up	n/c
Michigan	R	Schauer	Snyder	R + 3	R Toss-up	From R Lean
Arizona	R	DuVal	Ducey	R + 6	R Lean	n/c
Arkansas	D	Ross	Hutchinson	R + 6	R Lean	n/c

And few changes in House races.  We are now down to 46 battleground races.  The GOP will pick up only a few seats…hardly a wave but still a daunting majority.

	HOUSE BATTLEGROUND RACES (46)
	Incumb.	Dem	Rep	Expert Avg.	BTRTN	Change From
State	Party	Cand.	Cand.	(1=D, 8=R)	Projection	Last Update
Ill 11	D	Foster	Senger	D Lean	2.0	n/c
Iowa 2	D	Loebsack	Miller-Meeks	D Lean	2.0	n/c
Haw 1	D	Takai	Djou	D Lean	2.2	n/c
Ariz 9	D	Sinema	Rogers	D Lean	2.4	n/c
Fla 18	D	Murphy	Domino	D Lean	2.4	n/c
Cal 36	D	Ruiz	Nestande	D Lean	2.6	n/c
Cal 31	R	Aguilar	Chabot	D Lean	2.8	n/c
Ill 17	D	Bustos	Schilling	D Lean	2.8	n/c
Iowa 1	D	Murphy	Blum	D Lean	2.8	n/c
NY 18	D	Maloney	Heyworth	D Lean	2.8	n/c
NY 24	D	Maffei	Maffei	D Lean	2.8	n/c
Minn 7	D	Peterson	Westrom	D Lean	3.0	n/c
NH 2	D	Kuster	Garcia	D Lean	3.0	n/c
Tex 23	D	Gallego	Canseco	D Lean	3.0	n/c
Ga 12	D	Barrow	Allen	D Lean	3.2	n/c
Mass 6	D	Tierney	Tisei	D Lean	3.2	n/c
Maine 2	D	Cain	Polinquin	D Lean	3.3	n/c
NY 1	D	Bishop	Zeldin	D Lean	3.5	n/c
Cal 26	D	Brownley	Gorell	D Lean	3.8	n/c
Cal 7	D	Bera	Ose	D Lean	3.9	n/c
NY 11	R	Recchia	Grimm	D Lean	3.9	n/c
Minn 8	D	Nolan	Mills	D Lean	4.0	From D TU
Fla 26	D	Garcia	Curbilo	D Toss-up	4.2	n/c
Ariz 1	D	Kirkpatrick	Tobin	D Toss-up	4.3	n/c
Ariz 2	D	Barber	McSally	D Toss-up	4.3	n/c
Cal 52	D	Peters	DeMaio	D Toss-up	4.3	n/c
Ill 10	D	Schneider	Dold	D Toss-up	4.3	n/c
Ill 12	D	Enyart	Bost	D Toss-up	4.3	n/c
NH 1	D	Shea-Porter	Guinta	D Toss-up	4.3	n/c
WV 3	D	Rahall	Jenkins	D Toss-up	4.3	n/c
Fla 2	R	TBD	Southerland	R Toss-up	4.7	n/c
Iowa 3	R	Appel	Young	R Toss-up	4.7	n/c
Col 6	R	Romanoff	Coffman	R Toss-up	5.0	n/c
Neb 2	R	Ashford	Terry	R Lean	5.3	n/c
NJ 3	R	Belgard	MacArthur	R Lean	5.5	n/c
Va 10	R	Foust	Comstock	R Lean	5.7	n/c
WV 2	R	Casey	Mooney	R Lean	5.7	n/c
Ark 2	R	Hays	Hill	R Lean	6.0	n/c
NY 21	D	Woolf	Stefanik	R Lean	6.0	n/c
Mich 1	R	Cannon	Benishek	R Lean	6.4	n/c
Ill 13	R	Callis	Davis	R Lean	6.6	n/c
NY 19	R	Eldridge	Gibson	R Lean	6.6	n/c
NY 23	R	Robertson	Reed	R Lean	6.6	n/c
Cal 21	R	Renteria	Valadao	R Lean	6.8	n/c
Mon AL	R	Lewis	Zynke	R Lean	7.0	n/c
Nev 3	R	Bilbray-Cohn	Heck	R Lean	7.0	n/c