Election 2014 Dashboard: New Weekly Update of Senate, House and Governor Races

Welcome to the BTRTN Election Dashboard, you summary guide to the state of the elections.  We are now four weeks from Election Day, and I will be updating this dashboard each week on Tuesday.  As of now, as you can see in the chart below, the projections are a mixed bag, with the big news being, barring changes in the next month, the Republicans taking control of the Senate by a 52-48 margin.  But I am still foreseeing only a two seat pick-up in the House, and the Democrats actually picking up three state houses. 

	Senate	House	Governors
Democrats Total	48	199	24
Dem Not Up	34	-	7
Dem Solid	10	170	8
Dem Lean	3	21	1
Dem Toss-up	1	8	8
Rep Toss-up	1	3	6
Rep Lean	6	16	0
Rep Solid	15	217	13
Rep Not Up	30	-	7
Republicans Total	52	236	26
Change from current	R+5	R+2	D + 3

The “battleground” races, those that are either leaning or toss-ups in the chart, are detailed in the charts that follow.

	SENATE BATTLEGROUND RACES (11)
	Incumb.	Dem	Rep	Poll	BTRTN
State	Party	Candidate	Candidate	Margin	Projection
New Hampshire	D	Shaheen	Brown	Dem +6	D Lean
Michigan	D	Peters	Land	Dem +5	D Lean
North Carolina	D	Hagan	Tillis	Dem +4	D Lean
Kansas	R	Orman (I)	Roberts	Ind +3	IND Toss-up
Iowa	D	Braley	Ernst	Rep +3	R Toss-up
Alaska	D	Begich	Sullivan	Rep +4	R Lean
Colorado	D	Udall	Gardner	Rep +4	R Lean
Louisiana	D	Landrieu	Cassidy	Rep +4	R Lean
Arkansas	D	Pryor	Cotton	Rep +4	R Lean
Georgia	R	Nunn	Perdue	Rep +5	R Lean
Kentucky	R	Grimes	McConnell	Rep +5	R Lean
	TIGHEST GOVERNOR RACES (16)
	Incumb.	Dem	Rep	Poll	BTRTN
State	Party	Candidate	Candidate	Margin	Projection
Kansas	R	P. Davis	Brownback	D + 4	D Lean
Arizona	R	DuVal	Ducey	D + 2	D Toss-up
Hawaii	D	Ige	Aiona	D + 2	D Toss-up
Maine	R	Michaud	LePage	D + 2	D Toss-up
Colorado	D	Hickenlooper	Beauprez	D + 1	D Toss-up
Arkansas	D	Ross	Hutchinson	D + 1	D Toss-up
Connecticut	D	Malloy	Foley	D + 1	D Toss-up
Mass.	D	Coakley	Baker	Even	D Toss-up
Rhode Island	D	Raimando	Fung	n/a	D Toss-up
Alaska	R	Walker (I)	Parnell	n/a	R Toss-up
Florida	R	Crist	Scott	Even	R Toss-up
Wisconsin	R	Burke	Walker	Even	R Toss-up
Illinois	D	Quinn	Rauner	R + 1	R Toss-up
Georgia	R	Carter	Deal	R + 2	R Toss-up
Michigan	R	Schauer	Snyder	R + 2	R Toss-up
	HOUSE BATTLEGROUND RACES (48)
	Incumb.	Dem	Rep	Expert Avg.	BTRTN
State	Party	Cand.	Cand.	(1=D, 8=R)	Projection
Conn 5	D	Esty	Greenberg	2.0	D Lean
Iowa 1	D	Murphy	Blum	2.2	D Lean
Haw 1	D	Takai	Djou	2.2	D Lean
Ariz 9	D	Sinema	Rogers	2.4	D Lean
Cal 36	D	Ruiz	Nestande	2.6	D Lean
NY 24	D	Maffei	Maffei	2.6	D Lean
Fla 18	D	Murphy	Domino	2.7	D Lean
Cal 31	R	Aguilar	Chabot	2.8	D Lean
Ill 17	D	Bustos	Schilling	2.8	D Lean
NY 18	D	Maloney	Heyworth	2.8	D Lean
Minn 7	D	Peterson	Westrom	3.0	D Lean
NH 2	D	Kuster	Garcia	3.0	D Lean
Tex 23	D	Gallego	Canseco	3.0	D Lean
Ga 12	D	Barrow	Allen	3.2	D Lean
Mass 6	D	Tierney	Tisei	3.2	D Lean
Maine 2	D	Cain	Polinquin	3.3	D Lean
NY 18	D	Bishop	Zeldin	3.6	D Lean
Cal 26	D	Brownley	Gorell	3.8	D Lean
Cal 7	D	Bera	Ose	3.9	D Lean
NY 11	R	Recchia	Grimm	3.9	D Lean
Minn 8	D	Nolan	Mills	4.0	D Lean
Fla 26	D	Garcia	Curbilo	4.2	D Toss-up
Ariz 1	D	Kirkpatrick	Tobin	4.3	D Toss-up
Ariz 2	D	Barber	McSally	4.3	D Toss-up
Cal 52	D	Peters	DeMaio	4.3	D Toss-up
Ill 12	D	Enyart	Bost	4.3	D Toss-up
Ill 10	D	Schneider	Dold	4.3	D Toss-up
NH 1	D	Shea-Porter	Guinta	4.3	D Toss-up
WV 3	D	Rahall	Jenkins	4.3	D Toss-up
Fla 26	R	TBD	Southerland	4.7	R Toss-up
Iowa 3	R	Appel	Young	4.7	R Toss-up
Col 6	R	Romanoff	Coffman	5.0	R Toss-up
Neb 2	R	Ashford	Terry	5.3	R Toss-up
NJ 3	R	Belgard	MacArthur	5.5	R Lean
Va 10	R	Foust	Comstock	5.7	R Lean
WV 2	R	Casey	Mooney	5.7	R Lean
Mich 1	R	Cannon	Benishek	5.8	R Lean
Ark 2	R	Hays	Hill	6.0	R Lean
NY 21	D	Woolf	Stefanik	6.0	R Lean
Ill 13	R	Callis	Davis	6.4	R Lean
Cal 21	R	Renteria	Valadao	6.6	R Lean
NY 23	R	Robertson	Reed	6.6	R Lean
NY 19	R	Eldridge	Gibson	6.6	R Lean
Mich 8	R	Schertzing	Bishop	6.8	R Lean
Mich 7	R	Byrnes	Walberg	6.8	R Lean
Penn 6	R	Trivedi	Costello	6.8	R Lean
Mon AL	R	Lewis	Zynke	7.0	R Lean
Nev 3	R	Bilbray-Cohn	Heck	7.0	R Lean