Election 2014 Dashboard: GOP Still Leads Senate 52-48, But Races Tighten; Still No GOP "Wave" in House; Governorships Split

This week’s Election 2014 Dashboard shows minor changes versus last week.  The GOP continues to project to taking over the Senate 52/48, picking up a few seats in the House to extend their majority (though nothing resembling a “wave”), and losing four statehouses.  But there remain plenty of close races, and the Democrats could very well do better.  In the Senate, for instance, there are four races that are toss-ups – within the margin of error -- that I have in the GOP column.

	Senate	House	Governors
Democrats Total	48	199	25
Dem Not Up	34	-	7
Dem Solid	10	168	8
Dem Lean	2	22	0
Dem Toss-up	2	9	10
Rep Toss-up	4	3	2
Rep Lean	3	14	3
Rep Solid	15	219	13
Rep Not Up	30	-	7
Republicans Total	52	236	25
Change from current	R+5	R+2	D + 4

Let’s have a look at the battleground races.

No Senate races “flipped” in the last week, though four races tightened.  North Carolina moved from a Democrat Lean to a toss-up, as Kay Hagan struggles to hold on over Thom Tillis.  But three races where the GOP is ahead were also downgraded from Lean to toss-up, in Colorado, Georgia and Kentucky.  In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell is having trouble “closing down” Alison Lunderman Grimes.  The Democrat’s best hopes of holding on to the Senate ride with Bruce Braley in Iowa and Mark Udall in Colorado, who trail but within the margin of error.  Independent Independent Greg Orman still leads in Kansas by a small margin over incumbent Republican Pat Roberts.

Georgia and Louisiana remain of note since there is a requirement for the winner to gain 50% of the vote or go into a runoff.  If the Democrats rebound a bit in those races to at least deny their GOP opponent that magic threshold, the battle for control of the Senate could linger into December.

	SENATE BATTLEGROUND RACES (11)
	Incumb.	Dem	Rep	Poll	BTRTN	Change From
State	Party	Candidate	Candidate	Margin	Projection	Last Update
Michigan	D	Peters	Land	D + 8	D Lean	n/c
New Hamp.	D	Shaheen	Brown	D + 5	D Lean	n/c
Kansas	R	Orman (I)	Roberts	I + 3	I Toss-up	n/c
N. Carolina	D	Hagan	Tillis	D + 2	D Toss-up	From D Lean
Iowa	D	Braley	Ernst	R + 1	R Toss-up	n/c
Colorado	D	Udall	Gardner	R + 2	R Toss-up	From R Lean
Kentucky	R	Grimes	McConnell	R + 3	R Toss-up	From R Lean
Georgia	R	Nunn	Perdue	R + 3	R Toss-up	From R Lean
Arkansas	D	Pryor	Cotton	R + 4	R Lean	n/c
Alaska	D	Begich	Sullivan	R + 5	R Lean	n/c
Louisiana	D	Landrieu	Cassidy	R + 6	R Lean	n/c

Among the races for governor, 12 – count ‘em – 12 races are toss-ups right now.  The Democrats are projected to pick up three state houses at this point, but all ten of their battleground state leads are within the margin of error.  There were quite a few flips in the last week – five – which is a testament to the see-saw nature of these races.

	TIGHEST GOVERNOR RACES (15)
	Incumb.	Dem	Rep	Poll	BTRTN	Change From
State	Party	Candidate	Candidate	Margin	Projection	Last Update
Hawaii	D	Ige	Aiona	D + 2	D Toss-up	n/c
Maine	R	Michaud	LePage	D + 2	D Toss-up	n/c
Colorado	D	Hickenlooper	Beauprez	D + 2	D Toss-up	n/c
Mass.	D	Coakley	Baker	D + 2	D Toss-up	n/c
Florida	R	Crist	Scott	D + 2	D Toss-up	From R TU
Connecticut	D	Malloy	Foley	D + 1	D Toss-up	n/c
Alaska	R	Walker (I)	Parnell	I + 2	D Toss-up	From R TU
Kansas	R	P. Davis	Brownback	D + 1	D Toss-up	From D Lean
Illinois	D	Quinn	Rauner	D + 1	D Toss-up	From R TU
Rhode Island	D	Raimando	Fung	n/a	D Toss-up	n/c
Wisconsin	R	Burke	Walker	R + 1	R Toss-up	n/c
Georgia	R	Carter	Deal	R + 3	R Toss-up	n/c
Michigan	R	Schauer	Snyder	R + 4	R Lean	From R TU
Arizona	R	DuVal	Ducey	R + 6	R Lean	From D TU
Arkansas	D	Ross	Hutchinson	R + 6	R Lean	From D TU

There were few changes in the House, and no flips.  A few solid Democratic races crept into the Lean column.

	HOUSE BATTLEGROUND RACES (48)
	Incumb.	Dem	Rep	Expert Avg.	BTRTN	Change From
State	Party	Cand.	Cand.	(1=D, 8=R)	Projection	Last Update
Conn 5	D	Esty	Greenberg	D Lean	2.0	n/c
Ill 11	D	Foster	Senger	D Lean	2.0	From D Solid
Iowa 2	D	Loebsack	Miller-Meeks	D Lean	2.0	From D Solid
Haw 1	D	Takai	Djou	D Lean	2.2	n/c
Ariz 9	D	Sinema	Rogers	D Lean	2.4	n/c
Fla 18	D	Murphy	Domino	D Lean	2.4	n/c
Cal 36	D	Ruiz	Nestande	D Lean	2.6	n/c
Cal 31	R	Aguilar	Chabot	D Lean	2.8	n/c
Ill 17	D	Bustos	Schilling	D Lean	2.8	n/c
Iowa 1	D	Murphy	Blum	D Lean	2.8	n/c
NY 18	D	Maloney	Heyworth	D Lean	2.8	n/c
NY 24	D	Maffei	Maffei	D Lean	2.8	n/c
Minn 7	D	Peterson	Westrom	D Lean	3.0	n/c
NH 2	D	Kuster	Garcia	D Lean	3.0	n/c
Tex 23	D	Gallego	Canseco	D Lean	3.0	n/c
Ga 12	D	Barrow	Allen	D Lean	3.2	n/c
Mass 6	D	Tierney	Tisei	D Lean	3.2	n/c
Maine 2	D	Cain	Polinquin	D Lean	3.3	n/c
NY 1	D	Bishop	Zeldin	D Lean	3.5	n/c
Cal 26	D	Brownley	Gorell	D Lean	3.8	n/c
Cal 7	D	Bera	Ose	D Lean	3.9	n/c
NY 11	R	Recchia	Grimm	D Lean	3.9	n/c
Minn 8	D	Nolan	Mills	D Toss-up	4.0	From D Lean
Fla 26	D	Garcia	Curbilo	D Toss-up	4.2	n/c
Ariz 1	D	Kirkpatrick	Tobin	D Toss-up	4.3	n/c
Ariz 2	D	Barber	McSally	D Toss-up	4.3	n/c
Cal 52	D	Peters	DeMaio	D Toss-up	4.3	n/c
Ill 10	D	Schneider	Dold	D Toss-up	4.3	n/c
Ill 12	D	Enyart	Bost	D Toss-up	4.3	n/c
NH 1	D	Shea-Porter	Guinta	D Toss-up	4.3	n/c
WV 3	D	Rahall	Jenkins	D Toss-up	4.3	n/c
Fla 2	R	TBD	Southerland	R Toss-up	4.7	n/c
Iowa 3	R	Appel	Young	R Toss-up	4.7	n/c
Col 6	R	Romanoff	Coffman	R Toss-up	5.0	n/c
Neb 2	R	Ashford	Terry	R Lean	5.3	From R  TU
NJ 3	R	Belgard	MacArthur	R Lean	5.5	n/c
Va 10	R	Foust	Comstock	R Lean	5.7	n/c
WV 2	R	Casey	Mooney	R Lean	5.7	n/c
Ark 2	R	Hays	Hill	R Lean	6.0	n/c
NY 21	D	Woolf	Stefanik	R Lean	6.0	n/c
Mich 1	R	Cannon	Benishek	R Lean	6.4	n/c
Ill 13	R	Callis	Davis	R Lean	6.6	n/c
NY 19	R	Eldridge	Gibson	R Lean	6.6	n/c
NY 23	R	Robertson	Reed	R Lean	6.6	n/c
Cal 21	R	Renteria	Valadao	R Lean	6.8	n/c
Mon AL	R	Lewis	Zynke	R Lean	7.0	n/c
Nev 3	R	Bilbray-Cohn	Heck	R Lean	7.0	n/c
Penn 6	R	Trivedi	Costello	R Lean	7.0	n/c