Senate 2014 Election Update: Dems 51, GOP 49...Plenty of Toss-ups...Could Senate Control Come Down to Louisiana? In December?

As we start the post-Labor Day gallop to Election Day with just about nine weeks to go (see the chart on the right if you want the countdown down to the second), the race for control of the Senate is now, if possible, even tighter than it was in late July in my last update.  And to end the suspense, I have the Democrats holding on to the Senate by a 51-49 margin. 

But there remain nine battleground states, with a few others I am tracking closely to see if they merit a change in that status.  Of the nine battleground states, seven are toss-ups, with the average leads, based on recent polling, well within the margin of error.  Here is the high level scorecard as compared to prior updates:

	Oct 17,	Mar 23,	Jul 21,	Sep 2,
	2013	2014	2014	2014
Democrats Total	52	51	52	51
Dem Not Up	34	34	34	34
Dem Solid	11	10	11	11
Dem Lean	4	2	1	2
Dem Toss-up	3	5	6	4
Rep Toss-up	2	3	1	3
Rep Lean	3	3	1	0
Rep Solid	12	13	16	16
Rep Not Up	31	30	30	30
Republicans Total	48	49	48	49

The Democrats have 34 seats that are not up for reelection, and 11 others are solid blue.  The GOP has only 30 seats not up for reelection, but 16 solid red.  Because the Democrats need only 50 seats to retain control, while the GOP needs 51 (because the Democrats control the White House and VP Joe Biden breaks any ties in a 50-50 Senate), each side thus needs to win five of the nine battleground states to take the Senate.  And it may all come down to Louisiana, well after Election Day…read on to understand why.

What has changed in the last six weeks?  Georgia has flipped.  In July, Representative Jack Kingston seemed to be the favorite for the GOP nomination, but businessman David Perdue beat him in a squeaker on primary night.  Perdue is now riding a bit of post-primary momentum and is slightly ahead of first-time Democratic candidate Michelle Nunn in the race to replace retiring Republican Saxby Chambliss.  This was never going to be an easy race for the Democrats to turn, but Nunn has a great name (her father was Sam Nunn) and no track record to defend, and she is making it a race.  But as of now, she is coming up a bit short.

Georgia is one of five races that are now less than two points apart.  Iowa is as near a dead-heat as one can imagine.  I do feel Democrat Representative Bruce Braley will ultimately prevail over State Senator Joni Ernst, who has some under-publicized far right views that, in theory, Braley could exploit.  For example, Ernst opposes the farm bill – in Iowa! – and also opposes the minimum wage (not a potential increase in the minimum wage, but any minimum wage), and at one point she favored impeachment for President Obama.  She, in fact, draws comparisons to Sarah Palin.  But thus far, she is even with Braley.

I am keeping my eye on several other races.  New Hampshire and Kansas have both tightened and each have two recent polls that have slipped from double-digit leads for the favorites to high single digit margins.  In New Hampshire, erstwhile Massachusetts Senator “Downtown” Scott Brown may be gaining some traction against incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.  And in Kansas, the wildly unpopular incumbent Republican Pat Roberts has seen his lead narrow against Democratic unknown Chad Taylor.  I still consider them both “solid” – for now.

Also tightening is the race in Minnesota, but Democrat incumbent Al Franken still has a low double-digit lead, and South Dakota, where Republican Mike Rounds maintains a 15-point lead.  Both margins, while healthy, are lower than they were in July by a material amount.

Here is the full chart of every race, and the latest polling in the battleground states, and then follows a brief profile of each battleground race as it stands now.  The blue rows are the solid Democratic races, the white are the 9 battlegrounds, and the red rows are solid Republican.

	Inc.		Retiring/	Dem	Rep	Poll	Current
State	Party	Incumbent	Running	Candidate	Candidate	Margin	Status
Delaware	D	Coons	Running	Coons	9/9 primary		Solid Dem
Hawaii	D	Schatz	Running	Schatz	Cavasso		Solid Dem
Illinois	D	Durbin	Running	Durbin	Oberweis		Solid Dem
Massachusetts	D	Markey	Running	Markey	9/9 primary		Solid Dem
Minnesota	D	Franken	Running	Franken	McFadden		Solid Dem
New Hampshire	D	Shaheen	Running	Shaheen	Brown (9/9 pri)		Solid Dem
New Jersey	D	Booker	Running	Booker	Bell		Solid Dem
New Mexico	D	Udall	Running	Udall	Weh		Solid Dem
Oregon	D	Merkley	Running	Merkley	Wehby		Solid Dem
Rhode Island	D	Reed	Running	Reed	Zaccaria (9/9 pri)		Solid Dem
Virginia	D	Warner	Running	Warner	Gillespie		Solid Dem
Alaska	D	Begich	Running	Begich	Sullivan	Dem +5	Lean Dem
Michigan	D	Levin	Retiring	Peters	Land	Dem +4	Lean Dem
North Carolina	D	Hagan	Running	Hagan	Tillis	Dem +2	Tossup Dem
Colorado	D	Udall	Running	Udall	Gardner	Dem +1	Tossup Dem
Louisiana	D	Landrieu	Running	Landrieu	Cassidy	Dem +1	Tossup Dem
Iowa	D	Harkin	Retiring	Braley	Ernst	Dem+0.2	Tossup Dem
Georgia	R	Chambliss	Retiring	Nunn	Perdue	Rep +1	Tossup Rep
Arkansas	D	Pryor	Running	Pryor	Cotton	Rep +3	Tossup Rep
Kentucky	R	McConnell	Running	Grimes	McConnell	Rep +3	Tossup Rep
Alabama	R	Sessions	Running	none	Sessions		Solid Rep
Idaho	R	Risch	Running	Mitchell	Risch		Solid Rep
Kansas	R	Roberts	Running	Taylor	Roberts		Solid Rep
Maine	R	Collins	Running	Bellows	Collins		Solid Rep
Mississippi	R	Cochran	Running	Childers	Cochran		Solid Rep
Montana	D	Walsh	Retiring	Curtis	Daines		Solid Rep
Nebraska	R	Johanns	Retiring	Domina	Sasse		Solid Rep
Oklahoma	R	Inhofe	Running	Silverstein	Inhofe		Solid Rep
Oklahoma	R	Coburn	Retiring	Johnson	Lankford		Solid Rep
South Carolina	R	Graham	Running	Hutto	Graham		Solid Rep
South Carolina	R	Scott	Running	Dickerson	Scott		Solid Rep
South Dakota	D	Johnson	Retiring	Weiland	Rounds		Solid Rep
Tennessee	R	Alexander	Running	Ball	Alexander		Solid Rep
Texas	R	Cornyn	Running	Alameel	Cornyn		Solid Rep
West Virginia	D	Rockefeller	Retiring	Tennant	Capito		Solid Rep
Wyoming	R	Enzi	Running	Hardy	Enzi		Solid Rep

BATTLEGROUND STATES

Here is a brief review of the nine battleground Senate elections in 2014:

·        Alaska:  Democratic incumbent Mark Begish will likely face former Attorney General Daniel S. Sullivan, who won the August 19 primary.  Sullivan has a reasonably healthy lead over other GOP contenders in recent polls.  There has been little head-to-head polling to date between Begich and Sullivan, but the last three polls on average have Begish up by 5 points.  Lean Democrat.

·        Arkansas:  Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor will face Representative Tom Cotton in a red state the GOP considers among the most likely for it to swipe. Cotton’s lead has narrowed in the past month and this one is now a toss-up, still in the GOP column.  Toss-up Republican.

·        Colorado. Incumbent Democrat Mark Udall is being challenged by Republican Representative Cory Gardner.  There has been no polling in August, and Pryor holds a slight edge on average from five July polls.  Toss-up Democrat.

·        Georgia:  As noted above, Republican David Perdue has a slim lead over Democrat Michelle Nunn. I flipped this to the GOP based on recent polling but this one remains extremely close. Toss-up Republican.

·        Iowa:  As noted, Democratic Representative Bruce Braley is in a tough race to inherit the seat currently held by retiring Democrat Tom Harkin, with a microscopic lead over State Senator Joni Ernst.  Tossup Democrat.

·        Kentucky:  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell continues to struggle to put away Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lunderman Grimes, but he appears to have established minor momentum and a three-point lead.  That lead is still within the margin of error, so this race is still a toss-up.  I will be shocked if McConnell loses, though.  Toss-up Republican.

·        Louisiana:  Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu is embroiled in a back-and-forth race with GOP challenger Representative Bill Cassidy.  Louisiana has an odd format…Election Day is more or less an open primary, requiring the winner to attain at least 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff.  Landrieu may win the election but be forced into the runoff, and head-to-head she is only a point ahead of Cassidy, on average, in three polls in June/July (no new polls in August).  And if, on election night, the GOP is up 50-49 and neither Louisianan achieves 50%, we will all have our eyes glued on the run-off to see which party takes the Senate; the run-off will be on December 6, 2014.  Toss-up Democrat.

·        Michigan:  Democratic Representative Gary Peters’ has a decent lead over former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land in the race to replace retiring Democratic incumbent, Carl Levin.   There have been many polls here, 10 in the last two months, and Peters has led in nine of them.  Lean Democrat.

·        North Carolina:  Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan continues to lead a very close race with Thom Tillis, Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, holding on to a two-point lead.  Toss-up Democrat.

I have the Democrats up 51-49, but, with seven toss-up races, any outcome including GOP control is still a possibility.  And now as we celebrate Labor Day, let the games begin in earnest.