Senate 2014 Election Update: Dems 52, GOP 48...With MANY Tossups (July 21, 2014)

A few important Senate primaries remain, but we are well along in determining the candidates in the upcoming elections, and the battle for control remains remarkably close.  The bottom line:  I have the Democrats holding on, losing only 3 net seats and maintaining control of the upper chamber, 52-48.  But as I will detail, the margin is laughably tight, and of the nine battleground races, eight are literally “toss-ups.”  Keep in mind, this is not a “forecast” per se of expected results in November, but rather taking the temperature of where things stand as of today.  Much can and will happen, of course, that can alter these projections between now and Election Day.

The primary season thus far has been a far cry from 2012, when the GOP squandered race after race by nominating far right (and far out) candidates instead of more moderate, more polished and more electable alternatives.  Delaware, Indiana, Nevada and Missouri – at least – were winnable elections if not for the doomed candidacies of Christine O’Donnell, Richard Mourdock, Sharron Angle and Todd Akin.  Republicans ranging from Reince Priebus (the RNC head) to Karl Rove, neither exactly moderates, have openly sought to prevent similar doomed Tea Party candidates in 2014, and have succeeded.  But that might not be enough to take the Senate.

In March I identified 13 “battleground” states, but I have moved four into the “solid” column, three for the Republicans (West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota) and one for the Democrats (New Hampshire, where Scott Brown has been unable to get any traction).  Polls in each of these four states show consistently commanding double digit margins for the leader.

Here is how it looks at the moment, in comparison to my two earlier forecasts from last October and March.  Right now, I have the Democrats holding on by a 52-48 margin, slightly better than in March.  But the key here is not so much the apparent lead, but rather the number of battleground races that are currently within the margin of error:  eight out of the nine battlegrounds.

	Oct. 17,	Mar. 23,	Jul. 21,
	2013	2014	2014
Democrats Total	52	51	52
Dem Not Up	34	34	34
Dem Solid	11	10	11
Dem Lean	4	2	1
Dem Tossup	3	5	6
Rep Tossup	2	3	1
Rep Lean	3	3	1
Rep Solid	12	13	16
Rep Not Up	31	30	30
Republicans Total	48	49	48

The Democrats have 34 incumbents who are not up for election, and 11 more races that will almost surely stay blue in 2014, for a total of 45 “in the bag.”  The Republicans have 30 holdovers and 16 virtually certain red wins, adding up to 46 solid red.  So the real battle for control of the Senate will come among 9 battleground contests out of the 36 elections.  Republicans have to win 5 of these 9 to take control of the Senate (they need 51, while the Democrats need only 50 plus Joe Biden’s tiebreaking vote in the event of a split Senate)…and they certainly could.

But as of now, the Democrats nominally lead in 8 of them, most by quite narrow margins, in polling covering May, June and July to date.  That amounts to about 5 polls per race, though several have fewer and some have more.

Here is the full chart of every race, and the latest polling in the battleground states, and then follows a brief profile of each battleground race as it stands now.  The candidates listed are either the incumbents (unless they have announced their retirement) and the primary winners, or, if the primary has not yet been held, the leading contestant if one has emerged.  The blue rows are the solid Democratic races, the white are the 9 battlegrounds, and the red rows are solid Republican.

	Inc.		Retiring/	Dem	Rep	Poll	Current
State	Party	Incumbent	Running	Candidate	Candidate	Margin	Status
Delaware	D	Coons	Running	Coons	tbd		Solid Dem
Hawaii	D	Schatz	Running	Schatz	Cavasso		Solid Dem
Illinois	D	Durbin	Running	Durbin	Oberweis		Solid Dem
Massachusetts	D	Markey	Running	Markey	Herr		Solid Dem
Minnesota	D	Franken	Running	Franken	tbd		Solid Dem
New Hampshire	D	Shaheen	Running	Shaheen	Brown		Solid Dem
New Jersey	D	Booker	Running	Booker	tbd		Solid Dem
New Mexico	D	Udall	Running	Udall	tbd		Solid Dem
Oregon	D	Merkley	Running	Merkley	Wehby		Solid Dem
Rhode Island	D	Reed	Running	Reed	McKay		Solid Dem
Virginia	D	Warner	Running	Warner	Gillespie		Solid Dem
Michigan	D	Levin	Retiring	Peters	Land	Dem +6	Lean Dem
Iowa	D	Harkin	Retiring	Braley	Ernst	Dem +1	Tossup Dem
Colorado	D	Udall	Running	Udall	Gardner	Dem + 2	Tossup Dem
Georgia	R	Chambliss	Retiring	Nunn	Kingston	Dem +2	Tossup Dem
Alaska	D	Begich	Running	Begich	Sullivan	Dem +5	Tossup Dem
North Carolina	D	Hagan	Running	Hagan	Tillis	Dem +1	Tossup Dem
Louisiana	D	Landrieu	Running	Landrieu	Cassidy	Dem +1	Tossup Dem
Kentucky	R	McConnell	Running	Grimes	McConnell	Dem +2	Tossup Rep
Arkansas	D	Pryor	Running	Pryor	Cotton	Rep +4	Lean Rep
Alabama	R	Sessions	Running	none	Sessions		Solid Rep
Idaho	R	Risch	Running	Mitchell	Risch		Solid Rep
Kansas	R	Roberts	Running	Taylor	Roberts		Solid Rep
Maine	R	Collins	Running	Bellows	Collins		Solid Rep
Mississippi	R	Cochran	Running	Childers	Cochran		Solid Rep
Montana	D	Baucus	Retiring	Walsh	Daines		Solid Rep
Nebraska	R	Johanns	Retiring	Domina	Sasse		Solid Rep
Oklahoma	R	Inhofe	Running	Silverstein	Inhofe		Solid Rep
Oklahoma	R	Coburn	Retiring	Johnson	Lankford		Solid Rep
South Carolina	R	Graham	Running	Hutto	Graham		Solid Rep
South Carolina	R	Scott	Running	Dickerson	Scott		Solid Rep
South Dakota	D	Johnson	Retiring	Weiland	Rounds		Solid Rep
Tennessee	R	Alexander	Running	tbd	Alexander		Solid Rep
Texas	R	Cornyn	Running	Alameel	Cornyn		Solid Rep
West Virginia	D	Rockefeller	Retiring	Tennant	Capito		Solid Rep
Wyoming	R	Enzi	Running	tbd	Enzi		Solid Rep

You will note that most of the battleground states are now held by Democrats, seven of them, versus only two by Republicans.  And three Democrats are retiring, versus only one Republican.

I am keeping an eye on Montana.  That remains a solid red, but a brand new poll shows that current Democratic Senator John Walsh, appointed last year to fill the seat of Max Baucus (when he was named Ambassador to China), now trails challenger Representative Steve Daines by only 7 points.   Previous polling had Daines up by double digits.  We’ll see if a race emerges here that is close enough to label a battleground.

BATTLEGROUND STATES

Here is a brief review of the 9 battleground Senate elections in 2014:

·        Alaska:  Democratic incumbent Mark Begish will likely face former Attorney General Daniel S. Sullivan, with the primaries upcoming on August 19.  Sullivan has a reasonably healthy lead over other GOP contenders in recent polls.  There has been little head-to-head polling to date between Begich and Sullivan, and the latest poll has Begich up by 5 points.  Prior polls, quite old now, were not as favorable to Begich, thus I am reluctant to call this anything other than a tossup favoring the incumbent.  Tossup Democrat.

·        Arkansas:  Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor will face Representative Tom Cotton in a red state the GOP considers among the most likely for it to swipe. Cotton has a steady four point lead in each of the last three polls.  I have this in the GOP column.  Lean Republican.

·        Colorado. Incumbent Democrat Mark Udall is now being challenged by Republican Representative Cory Gardner and Gardner has emerged as a strong opponent.  Udall holds a slight edge overall, though the most recent poll has Gardner up by two (it was a Quinnipiac poll, though, and they often lean a bit incorrectly toward the GOP).  Tossup Democrat.

·        Georgia:  A fascinating race to replace the retiring Republican Saxby Chambliss features Democrat Michelle Nunn, daughter of Sam, a political neophyte (she runs a “Points of Light” volunteer organization) who will be the Democrat nominee.  The Republican primary in May resulted in a runoff, as no one claimed more than 50% of the vote.  U.S. Representative Jack Kinston is leading the polls, not far ahead of fellow Representative Phil Gingery.  Nunn has led in head-to-head polls over Kinston until the last poll which swung to Kingston.  I still have this in the Democrat camp although Nunn has a long way to go to swipe a red state seat.  Tossup Democrat.

·        Iowa:  Democratic Representative Bruce Braley is in a tough race to inherit the seat currently held by retiring Democrat Tom Harkin.  Republican State Senator Joni Ernst won the GOP nomination, and is within the margin of error of Braley, who has proven to be a bit gaffe-prone, at one time (in May) appearing to mock longtime Republican Senator Chuck Grassley as follows:  "You might have a farmer from Iowa who never went to law school, never practiced law, serving as the next chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee." Perhaps Braley has not noticed that Iowa has a few farmers here and there.  Tossup Democrat.

·        Kentucky:  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, at this juncture, is still in a dogfight.  He managed to easily crush his own party’s Tea Party challenger businessman Matt Bevin, in the primary.  But Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lunderman is not only hanging in there against him, but is ahead in the polls, albeit within the margin of error., though their polling is as close as can be.  I’m still calling this for McConnell, but, as in sports, the longer the challenger remains in the game, the more credibility she has – and the money will roll in.  By the way, have you seen Mitch’s “happy footage” yet?  Check it out at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6x_pjKkYBAk).  Tossup Republican.

·        Louisiana:  Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu is embroiled in a back-and-forth race with GOP challenger Representative Bill Cassidy.  Louisiana has an odd format…Election Day is more or less an open primary, requiring the winner to attain at least 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff.  Landrieu will likely win the election but be forced into the runoff, and head-to-head she is only a point ahead of Cassidy, on average, in three polls in the last 6 weeks…and the most recent one had Cassidy ahead.  I’ve got this one with Landrieu as of now.  Tossup Democrat.

·        Michigan:  Democratic Representative Gary Peters’s has a healthy lead over former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land in the race to replace retiring Democratic incumbent, Carl Levin.   Peters appears to have taken control of this race in late February and has been  ahead in the last 10 polls since then by an average of 6 points.  Lean Democrat.

·        North Carolina:  Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan is locked in a close race with Thom Tillis, Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives.  Tillis survived a very tough primary season against a wide field, and this is one place where the Tea Party failed to beat Tillis, the establishment candidate.  Hagan leads by less than a point, but the last two polls have her up by four.  Tossup Democrat.

While the Democrats hold the advantage, these races are so close that the Democrats could end up with anywhere from 45 to 54 seats.  They are thus almost certain to lose ground from their current 55 (including the two independents)…the only question is…how much?

One thing that has not made much of a dent in the mainstream news is the characterization of the 2016 Senate race.  Republicans may win control in 2014, but if they do, it will almost certainly be a short reign.  In 2016, 34 seats will be up for reelection, and 23 or 24 of them will feature GOP incumbents (depending on South Carolina; one of this year’s South Carolina Senate election is a special election that will be up for grabs again in 2016).  With a presidential election drawing a far bigger turnout, and one far more advantageous for the Democrats, it is highly likely the Democrats will return to the majority in 2016.  Illinois, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin hold GOP seats that could be turnable, and perhaps there will be others if the Democrats field a strong presidential candidate.