Barack
Obama is officially in “legacy” mode.
And that means making bold moves with little regard for short-term
political consequences, including the mid-terms. His GOP critics continue to heap on scorn, and
this has been coupled with a heavy dose of dismay from Obama’s own party, but for
this president, there clearly is no more “leading from behind.”
VA
scandal? Fire the responsible Cabinet
member. Congressional inaction on
climate change? Issue an aggressive executive
order on CO2 emissions. Got a POW still
in Afghanistan
This was a
consequential month, though in what direction remains unclear in the early days
of these fresh controversies. At first
it seemed the lead story for the month would be revelations of poor patient care
at federal VA hospitals, a disaster that cost General Eric Shinseki his job as
Secretary of Veterans Affairs (no matter that Shinseki had actually improved
upon the historically terrible track record of predecessors of prior
administrations, both Republican and Democratic).
This
“scandal” had already eclipsed the big news of Obama’s most muscular use yet of
executive authority, his call for a 30% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions
from coal plants under the authority granted him in the provisions of the Clean
Air Act of 1971. Tired of Congressional
inaction and fully aware that no November outcome will propel legislative
solutions forward, Obama chose an aggressive path to signal the world that the
U.S. would become a pacesetter in attacking global warming. Time will tell if the courts allow his
actions to remain the law of the land.
But all of
that was overshadowed by the surprise announcement that Obama had authorized a
trade of five Gitmo-based Taliban prisoners for PWO Sargeant Bowe Bergdahl, and
the firestorm that ensued. Not only were
the five Gitmo POW’s highly-placed “assets” within the Taliban, and not only did Obama ignore a federal law
requiring 30-day Congressional notice of any Gitmo releases, but reports
quickly surfaced that Bergdahl was a possible deserter and could be subject to
a court-martial investigation.
I know this
much: Democrats are by and large not
thrilled with Obama’s “legacy push.”
Incumbents up for re-election in coal states are running from his
climate change action, party leaders of all stripes are grumbling about the POW
deal, and these along with the VA mess will give the GOP potentially stronger
issues than Benghazi
My sense is
that Obama’s approval rating can ride these out with a major blip, though a few
points may be shaved and that would certainly hurt midterm prospects for the
Democrats if it persisted. Firing
Shinseki and the Bergdahl deal pushed the VA debacle off the media cycle, and
my sense is that Obama’s talking points on Bergdahl will carry the court of
public opinion among those in the middle.
That is: 1) we do everything we can to bring our soldiers
home, 2) such trades are common and are
not tantamount to “negotiating with terrorists” (as Israel has proven time and
again), and 3) if Bergdahl needs to face
any justice, better it be in U.S. courts than in Taliban prisons. As for Congress, annoying an institution that
has a 13% approval rating should not have any political consequences.
For months
now Obama has been riding the twin-wins of the 8+ million Obamacare signups and
steady improvement in the job market to a modest rise in his approval
ratings. That has continued this
month….but we will see if that holds -- that is, whether these new issues have
staying power and cause major damage.
OBAMA APPROVAL RATING
There have
been 32 polls in the last month, but virtually none reflect the trifecta of the
VA mess, the climate change action and the Bergdahl deal. Obama’s approval rating in May inched up
another two points to 46%, and his net negative dropped to -5. Every point matters in the mid-term equation,
because each point represents movement among “the middle” and is also a factor
in shoring up the base. That means money
and resources for the ground game come the fall. An upward approval rating is one of those
rising tides that lift all boats.
|
Obama
Approval Rating
|
Election Day 2012
|
10-Mar
|
6-Apr
|
4-May
|
8-Jun
|
|
Approve
|
49.6
|
44.6
|
44.2
|
44.5
|
45.6
|
|
Disapprove
|
47.4
|
51.7
|
51.9
|
51.4
|
50.5
|
|
Net
|
2.2
|
-7.0
|
-7.7
|
-6.9
|
-4.9
|
OBAMACARE RATINGS
There were
few new polls this month on Obamacare, an indicator in and of itself of how the
issue is losing steam for the fall. Now
that the GOP has a few new cards to play, it is entirely possible that the ACA
will receive even less attention. But for
now, at a steady 40% approval level, it is still an albatross for the
Democrats.
|
Obamacare
|
Election Day 2012
|
10-Mar
|
6-Apr
|
4-May
|
8-Jun
|
|
For/Favor
|
40.0
|
40.0
|
39.8
|
41.0
|
40.1
|
|
Oppose/Against
|
50.8
|
55.2
|
52.0
|
50.0
|
51.7
|
|
Net
|
-10.8
|
-15.2
|
-12.2
|
-9.0
|
-11.6
|
ECONOMETER
Meanwhile,
the economy continues to show signs of recovery. Another strong job report (217, 000 new jobs)
followed a rise in consumer confidence and a good month for the stock
market. This tear’s spring surge appears
to have more lasting power than in prior years and the expectation is for
strong GDP growth in the second quarter.
Certainly the very strong auto industry sales numbers last month give
rise to that expectation.
|
Econometer
|
Election Day 2012
|
10-Mar
|
6-Apr
|
4-May
|
8-Jun
|
|
Econometer
|
0.0
|
48.1
|
53.3
|
52.5
|
56.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unemployment Rate
|
7.9
|
6.7
|
6.7
|
6.3
|
6.3
|
|
Consumer Confidence
|
73.1
|
78.6
|
83.9
|
82.3
|
84.8
|
|
Price of Gas
|
3.71
|
3.48
|
3.62
|
3.74
|
3.75
|
|
Dow Jones
|
13,330
|
16,208
|
16,339
|
16,339
|
16,617
|
|
GDP
|
3.1
|
2.6
|
2.6
|
0.1
|
-1.0
|
CONGRESSIONAL GENERIC BALLOT
The
Democrats hold a slim lead in the generic ballot, under a point.
|
Generic
Ballot
|
Election Day 2012
|
10-Mar
|
6-Apr
|
4-May
|
8-Jun
|
|
Democrat
|
46.3
|
41.0
|
41.0
|
38.0
|
42.2
|
|
Republican
|
46.0
|
39.2
|
39.4
|
40.0
|
41.5
|
|
Net
|
0.3
|
1.8
|
1.6
|
-2.0
|
0.7
|
