The political
landscape during December and into early January was dominated by twin ongoing
sagas…the fate of Obamacare and the struggle for control of the Republican
Party. Both may be pivoting, but it is
way too early to see their endpoints.
And the “Trafficgate” drama of Chris Christie has thrown a huge monkeywrench
into a potential resurgence for the so-called moderate wing of the GOP – with
the fate of Christie’s presidential ambitions also with an unclear outcome.
December
began with John Boehner’s declaration of war (more or less) on the far right
wing of the GOP. With an eye clearly
fixed on the 2014 midterms – and the need to hold those few remaining swing
districts -- and the sinking polls of the Tea Party, Boehner used the budget
compromise crafted by Democratic Senator Patty Murphy and Republican Reprehensive
Paul Ryan as a vehicle to lambaste the Tea Party. He referred to Tea Party PAC’s as “outside
groups” who are “misleading their followers” and have “lost all
credibility.” This long-awaited pushback
followed Boehner’s crafty move (in my view) of giving Ted Cruz the keys to the
car for the October budget shutdown, which was an unmitigated disaster for the
party, thereby weakening Cruz and the Tea Party considerably.
Meanwhile,
the fixes to the health.gov website appeared to have worked, and the enrollment
numbers trended up sharply in November (we await December figures) to 365,000
for private insurance and 803,000 eligible through Medicaid. The Obama Administration risked continued
confusion with numerous short-term enrollment extensions for January 1 coverage
and other changes, in the hope of avoiding “horror stories” in implementation
and stimulating further acceleration of enrollment. Obamacare is in a precarious state now, as
some measure of viability is a
requirement for 2014. Republicans will
run against it, and if they win the Senate, would vote to repeal it – and
Democrats may find filibustering that outcome to be politically risky, thus
leaving it to Obama to veto Congressional wishes.
But while
an enrollment of 7 million may be difficult by May 1 – the original goal – a
smaller number would certainly work if the mix of old and young is sufficient to
make the coverage economically viable for the insurance carriers.
“Viability”
is the word of the day…and of course now it is now being used in the context of
Chris Christie’s unannounced Presidential candidacy. He would have been the primary beneficiary of
a swinging of the pendulum in a moderate direction, as running uphill against
the Tea Party dominated GOP primary machine would be a brutal challenge. But many have stated that Christie’s biggest
challenge is not the primary obstacle course – tough as it would be – but rather
surviving three years of intense scrutiny, certain to expose more of his own
skeletons and test his brutally hard-edged personality. “Trafficgate” plays into both, the type of
gaffe that reinforces the worst suspicions about Christie…much like Mitt
Romney’s “47%” and “$10,000 bet” gaffes reinforced his elitist, out-of-touch
imagery. Christie did a brilliant job of
very public mea culpa, but I do not see that as putting the issue to bed, any
more than Hillary’s testimony on Benghazi
One person
clearly benefits most from the Boehner War and Trafficgate – Jeb Bush. As a moderate (or what passes for a moderate
these days), he benefits from Tea Party pushback. And Christie is the only other moderate candidate. So he wins two ways. Plus, the Republican field may be talented,
but compared to Ryan, Rubio, Paul, Cruz, Jindal, Walker, you name it, he looks
like the only adult in the room.
OBAMA APPROVAL RATING
As expected,
Obama’s approval rating bounced back a little with the absence of negative
Obamacare news. Note the high-level
correlation of the two charts below over the last two months. Obama’s net negative improved by 2 points,
from -12 to -10 points, and Obamacare’s net negative improved by 3 points, from
-18 to -15 points. Unfortunately for
Obama, as Obamacare goes, so goes his approval rating.
|
Obama
Approval Rating
|
Election Day 2012
|
5-Oct
|
8-Nov
|
8-Dec
|
10-Jan
|
|
Approve
|
49.6
|
45.3
|
45.5
|
39.9
|
42.6
|
|
Disapprove
|
47.4
|
51.5
|
52.5
|
51.8
|
52.6
|
|
Net
|
2.2
|
-6.2
|
-6.9
|
-11.9
|
-10.0
|
|
Obamacare
|
Election Day 2012
|
5-Oct
|
8-Nov
|
8-Dec
|
10-Jan
|
|
For/Favor
|
40.0
|
39.8
|
41.6
|
38.4
|
38.2
|
|
Oppose/Against
|
50.8
|
51.7
|
49.3
|
56.6
|
53.4
|
|
Net
|
-10.8
|
-11.8
|
-7.6
|
-18.2
|
-15.1
|
And that is
frustrating for him because his economic story continues to strengthen.
ECONOMETER
Most
Presidents are rewarded over time for “peace” and “prosperity,” but Obama is getting
absolutely nothing for ending (more or less) two wars (or at least sharply
reducing America’s military involvement
in them) or for improvements in the economy.
His legacy may hinge on Obamacare
remaining the law of the land, and for that to happen, it has to actually work
in some measurable way…higher levels of coverage, reduced escalation of health
care costs, etc.
But his
economic story, as stated, is quite good and, even Republicans would have to
admit, it’s getting better all the time.
The Econometer now stands at +50.5 versus where it stood on Election Day
2012, the day of Obama’s re-election.
And, it is well over 100 points better than where it stood on the date
of his inauguration in January, 2009 (these figures are indexed to the measure
as of Election Day, 2012). And to some
extent this is actually understated because gas prices skidded dramatically for
a short time due to the recession in 2008/9, and the unemployment rate would
soar to over 10% in the early months of Obama’s first term, which can hardly be
blamed on Obama.
And yet he
gets no credit for a doubled stock market and consumer confidence rate, a
10-point swing in the GDP (from -6% to +4%) and a 1.2 reduction in the
unemployment rate. Sure Ben Bernanke
should get a great deal of credit, and we are still a ways from full employment
(generally viewed as 5.5%). But the
economic picture is light year’s better than what he inherited in 2009, and the
Administration should be receiving more credit for a steadily proceeding
turnaround of epic proportions. Stare at
this chart for a while.
|
|
Obama
|
Obama
|
|
|
|
Inauguration
|
Reelection
|
Today
|
|
|
1/20/09
|
11/6/2012
|
1/10/2014
|
|
Econometer
|
-72.5
|
0.0
|
50.5
|
|
Unemployment
Rate
|
7.8
|
7.9
|
6.7
|
|
Consumer
Confidence
|
38.0
|
73.1
|
78.1
|
|
Price of
Gas
|
1.84
|
3.71
|
3.37
|
|
Dow Jones
|
8,554
|
13,330
|
16,242
|
|
GDP
|
-6.2
|
3.1
|
4.1
|
GENERIC BALLOT
The
Democrats shaved a few tenths of a point off the “generic ballot,” leaving
things pretty much at a dead heat as we head into a major congressional
election year, when the full House and about one-third of the Senate (35 races)
are contested. We will be tracking those
races in great detail as the year goes on, so stay tuned…
|
Generic
Congressional Ballot
|
Election Day 2012
|
5-Oct
|
8-Nov
|
8-Dec
|
10-Jan
|
|
Democrat
|
46.3
|
41.9
|
45.2
|
40.7
|
41.4
|
|
Republican
|
46.0
|
38.4
|
39.5
|
41.9
|
41.9
|
|
Net
|
0.3
|
3.4
|
5.7
|
-1.1
|
-0.5
|
