Hall of Fame Prediction, 2014: The Protest is Over, Let the Good Guys In! (December 29, 2013)

Last year the verdict was rendered on the Steroid Era and it was a resounding thumbs down.  It did not matter if you were totally clean (Craig Biggio), an apparently innocent victim of whisper campaigns (Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza) or outright guilty-as-charged (Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa) – no one from the Steroids Era was going to make the Hall of Fame in January, 2013.

A year has passed, and I suspect these lines of demarcation have become important.  The voting patterns established over a few years now for the truly guilty (such as Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmiero) suggest that none of the scoundrels will ever see Cooperstown.  But I think the Good Guys from the Steroids Era (or at least the ones who never failed a test) will achieve success in time – even a few this year.

The latest problem of the Hall for Fame is, in my view, the maximum of 10 votes allowed that each voter will labor under.  There are a glut of truly deserving candidates on the ballot now, and next year those that fall short will be joined by Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz, with many more first-ballot entry contenders to come in the years after that.

But…it is what it will be…so in the meantime here is my fearless prediction of who will be elected, and also who I think is deserving…sadly those will continue to be two different lists for years to come.

Who will be elected to the HOF this year (results to be announced on January 8, 2014)?  My answer:  Greg Maddux , Craig Biggio and Jack Morris will make the Hall of Fame this year.  I actually don’t think Jack Morris quite deserves it, but more on that later.  And a whole bunch of deserving candidates will fall short.

Who should be in the Hall?  Maddux, Biggio and Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Lee Smith, Curt Schilling, Edgar Martinez, Alan Trammell, Fred McGriff, Frank Thomas, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine and Jeff Kent.  Whew!  That’s 14 deserving players from where I sit.

Who is left out?  They come in three groupings:

·        The “deserves to be on the ballot, but not in the Hall” group includes Morris along with Don Mattingly, Larry Walker, Kenny Rogers, Luis Gonzalez and Moises Alou

·        The “steroid guys” are Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmiero and Sammy Sosa, all of whom will see their vote totals decline in the face of all these clean, deserving candidates. 

·        And the “never should have been on the ballot to begin with” group, for whom I will limit their space to their last names:  Durham, Nomo, Sexton, LoDuca, Benitez, Timlin, Casey, Gagne, Snow and the Jones boys (Jacque and Todd).

Below is my prediction on how the vote will go.  There are a ton of votes here…almost 8 per ballot.  The highest votes-per-ballot since 1990 was 6.9 in 1990, so I may be overstating it.  But when you consider the backlog from last year’s shutout and the number of deserving new candidates, I do see a votes-per-ballot record in the making.

	Proj.	Proj
	%	Votes
	2014	2014
Greg Maddux	97%	552
Craig Biggio	76%	432
Jack Morris	76%	432
Jeff Bagwell	57%	324
Mike Piazza	55%	313
Frank Thomas	55%	313
Tim Raines	50%	285
Tom Glavine	45%	256
Lee Smith	40%	228
Curt Schilling	36%	205
Edgar Martinez	30%	171
Alan Trammell	30%	171
Roger Clemens (st)	28%	159
Barry Bonds (st)	27%	154
Mike Mussina	25%	142
Larry Walker	15%	85
Fred McGriff	14%	80
Mark McGwire (st)	11%	63
Don Mattingly	9%	51
Jeff Kent	5%	28
Sammy Sosa (st)	4%	23
Rafael Palmiero (st)	3%	17
Luis Gonzalez	2%	11
Kenny Rogers	1%	6
Moises Alou	0%	0
Ray Durham	0%	0
Hideo Nomo	0%	0
Mike Timlin	0%	0
Paul Lo Duca	0%	0
Richie Sexson	0%	0
Armando Benitez	0%	0
Sean Casey	0%	0
Eric Gagne	0%	0
Jacque Jones	0%	0
J.T.Snow	0%	0
Todd Jones	0%	0

Before we get into it in detail, here’s a note.  You will see references below to a “Tom Gardner Score” or “TG Score”?  What is it?  I have developed a regression equation that “predicts” whether one will/should make the Hall of Fame.  The independent variables for hitters are hits and OPS+, and there are additional bumps for being a catcher, second baseman or shortstop.  For pitchers, the independent variables are ERA+ and innings pitched.  Essentially, both equations have one measure for “longevity” and another for “excellence” and no other variable entered the equation. 

That is, with one exception:  there is a variable called “Problem” which is a rather tame reference to a player who has been tainted in some way, whether via gambling (e.g., Shoeless Joe Jackson, Pete Rose, Eddie Cicotte), steroids/HGH (the gang mentioned above) or some other strange issue (like Carl Mays, who killed Ben Chapman with a beanball).  It is an amazingly powerful variable, in that it discounts an affected player so much his TG Score drops below the key level of 50….a score above 50 is usually “Hall Worthy.”

In the past few years, Wins Above Replacement Value (WAR) has soared in popularity.  As it happens, WAR and the TG Score are highly correlated (excluding the “Problem” variable, which WAR of course does not have), even though they are calculated very differently.  I include WAR scores in the analysis below as well…a WAR score of 50+ is also basically HOF-worthy.

So let’s take it position by position.

CATCHERS

I’m going to reference the chart below, and a similar one for each position.  I’ve compared the two catchers on the ballot (Mike Piazza and Paul Lo Duca)  with three groupings:  all Hall of Fame catchers (the line labeled “HOF”), catchers who are in the HOF that I consider “borderline” (by virtue of having a TG Score of around 50) and other catchers who are NOT in the HOF who were also borderline (also by having a TG Score of around 50; I used Ted Simmons, Lance Parrish, Thurmon Munson and Bill Freehan).

Mike Piazza is clearly a HOFer.  He is perhaps the greatest hitting catcher of all time, as his stats dwarf those of the average catcher in the HOF.  This one is not even close.  Equally clear is the case against Paul Lo Duca.  Lo Duca was a decent hitter for a catcher but his stats fall well below the group that is not in the HOF.

Catchers	OPS+	Hits	Avg.	HR	RBI	WAR	Hall Score	TG Vote
Piazza	142	2127	0.308	427	1335	59	93	Yes
HOF	119	1773	0.285	94	1013	49	55
TG borderline HOF (41-62)	127	1558	0.301	113	890	45	51
Borderline not in HOF*	113	1851	0.273	23	980	43	51
Lo Duca	97	1112	0.286	80	481	18	10	No

* Simmons, Parrish, Munson, Freehan

FIRST BASEMEN

First-timer Frank Thomas joins Jeff Bagwell in the camp of “certain.”  Like Piazza, their stats are a cut above the average first base HOFer, and way ahead of the borderline groups.

Fred McGriff is also an “up” vote for me.  His stats generally fall safely between the average and borderline HOF groups for first basemen, and his power stats are up there with Bagwell and Thomas (493 homers!).  Rafael Palmiero and Mark McGwire would have been Hall-worthy, but the steroids rap voids them.  You can see their TG Score before and after the “problem”…Palmiero was a particularly solid case with a score of 73, but it drops all the way to minus 10 with his failed drug test (shortly after his finger-wagging claim of innocence in testimony to Congress).

Don Mattingly was effectively robbed of the second half of his career with a bad back, and as a consequence all his numbers fall short of the mark.  But at least he is worthy of consideration.  I can’t say the same for Richie Sexson, Sean Casey or J.T. Snow, who collectively managed five All-Star game appearances but little else to warrant inclusion on the ballot…they all have negative TG scores.

First Basemen	OPS+	Hits	Avg.	HR	RBI	WAR	Hall Score	TG Vote
Bagwell	149	2314	0.297	449	1529	80	63	Yes
Thomas, Frank	156	2468	0.301	521	1704	74	75	Yes
HOF	142	2399	0.308	284	1421	66	59
Palmiero	132	3020	0.288	569	1835	66	73/(10)	No
McGriff	134	2490	0.284	493	1550	51	56	Yes
McGwire	163	1626	0.263	583	1414	63	51/(32)	No
TG borderline HOF (46-53)	138	2198	0.297	363	1391	54	49
Borderline not in HOF*	131	2248	0.297	250	1180	53	44
Mattingly	128	2153	0.307	222	1099	40	38	No
Sexson	120	1286	0.261	306	943	18	-1	No
Casey	109	1531	0.302	130	735	16	-2	No
Snow	105	1509	0.268	189	877	11	-7	No

* D. Allen, W. Clark, Garce, Garvey, Olerud, Hernandez

** Steroids tainted

SECOND BASEMEN

Jeff Kent is the first-time candidate of note here, and his stats line up well with the HOF groups.  He was simply one of the greatest power-hitting second basemen ever.  I’ve often thought that Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich were HOF-worthy and Kent’s stats exceeds theirs.

Craig Biggio should have been a first ballot HOFer last year, a clear victim of his era.  He certainly deserves entry, with a WAR and TG Score well ahead of Kent and each above 65, which is terrific.  His OPS+ is only average but his consistent excellence over a long career gives him a leg up on most second basemen in the Hall.

Ray Durham had a fine career, but his trip to Cooperstown will come as a visitor if it comes at all.  Jose Vidro is not on the ballot, but he had 1500 hits, which is the minimum for consideration for a non-catcher (in my view), so I threw him on the chart.  He certainly is more worthy than the Sexson, Casey, Snow trio at first base, with a positive TG Score, and he made three All-Star teams – one more than Durham!

Second Basemen	OPS+	Hits	Avg.	HR	RBI	WAR	Hall Score	TG Vote
Biggio	111	3060	0.281	291	1175	66	72	Yes
Kent	123	2461	0.290	377	1518	55	57	Yes
HOF	120	2405	0.299	152	1084	69	54
TG borderline HOF (44-62)	113	2584	0.301	161	1070	64	54
Borderline not in HOF*	116	2137	0.273	174	878	46	40
Durham	104	2054	0.277	192	875	34	27	No
Vidro	108	1524	0.298	128	654	17	10	No

* Whitaker, Grich, Randolph

SHORTSTOPS

Alan Trammell is the only shortstop on the ballot, now for the 13^th time.  I’ve long thought he was worthy.  His stats are practically identical with the average shortstop HOFer, except for those 185 homers which are nearly double his HOF peers.  Trammell was outshone in his career by Cal Ripken, Jr., and then eclipsed by the Jeter/A.Rod/Nomar trio of outstanding hitting shortstops.  But he belongs, for sure.  It’s quite a statement that no other shortstops are even on the ballot, and none are on the horizon either among recent retirees, unless you get excited by a David Eckstein candidacy (actually, Nomar is up in 2016 and Edgar Renteria in 2018).

Shortstops	OPS+	Hits	Avg.	HR	RBI	WAR	Hall Score	TG Vote
Trammell	110	2365	0.285	185	1003	67	58	Yes
HOF	109	2335	0.286	117	1056	63	54
TG borderline HOF (43-53)	105	2248	0.284	59	939	54	49
Borderline not in HOF*	103	2143	0.283	129	887	39	42

* Bartels, Stephens, Fernandez, Dark, Concepcion

THIRD BASEMEN

Did anyone notice there are no third basemen on the ballot this year?  Thirty-six players on the ballot, and no one from the hot corner?  The HOF is very tough on third basemen…the position with the fewest members.  And that is obviously not changing anytime soon…until Chipper Jones and Scott Rolen come on the ballot….in 2018! (And Rolen is hardly a shoo-in.)

OUTFIELDERS/DHs

This is not a good year for these traditional power positions.  The two best candidates here are not homer run types, but they still get my vote:  Edgar Martinez and Tim Raines.  Martinez gets dissed as a full-time DH, and Raines is undervalued as a speedster, but both have WAR’s and TG Scores well above the borderline HOFers and stack up well with the average outfield HOFer.

Larry Walker is a borderline candidate…he has a high WAR and an on-the-cusp TG score of 49.  But he suffers from “Coors Field Syndrome,” with an otherworldly home OPS of 1.068 and a merely very good .865 on the road.  Good…not good enough.  Face it, it’s not a good time to be a borderline candidate.

Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa…deservedly shunned again…and again…and will be for another decade.

This year’s first-time candidates are not HOF caliber.  Luis Gonzalez and Moises Alou had very good careers…the former made five All-Star teams, the latter six.  Gonzalez’s OPS+ of 118 hurt him relative to the borderline groups, and Alou simply had a relatively short career and only 2,134 hits, and not enough “excellence” to offset that lack of “longevity.”

Jacque Jones is one of the most absurd ballot selections in years.  I cannot remember a lower TG score that was not a “Problem”-tainted score.  His former Twin teammate Shannon Stewart is not on the ballot, but he did get to the magic 1500-hit level and certainly is a better ballot contender than Jones!  But neither of them even made one All-Star team.

Outfielders/DH	OPS+	Hits	Avg.	HR	RBI	WAR	Hall Score	TG Vote
Bonds**	182	2935	0.298	762	1996	158	1.16/33	No
HOF	137	2566	0.314	240	1288	70	61
Martinez, Edgar	147	2247	0.312	309	1261	64	59	Yes
Raines	123	2605	0.294	170	980	65	50	Yes
TG borderline HOF (48-52)	130	2448	0.309	198	1165	51	50
Borderline not in HOF*	126	2527	0.286	310	1352	49	50
Walker, Larry	140	2160	0.313	383	1311	67	49	No
Sosa**	128	2408	0.273	609	1667	55	47/-36	No
Gonzalez, Luis	118	2591	0.283	354	1439	52	45	No
Alou, Moises	128	2134	0.303	332	1287	40	37	No
Stewart, Shannon	105	1653	0.297	115	580	25	-1	No
Jones, Jacques	98	1272	0.277	165	630	12	-22	No

* Staub. Oliver, Parker, Evans, R. Smith

**  Steroids tainted

STARTING PITCHERS

Starting pitchers are the most fascinating category this year. 

First of all, it is a banner year for first-time candidates.  Greg Maddux deserves 100% of the vote (he won’t get it, though he’ll come close, I bet) as simply one of the greatest pitchers of all time.  Mike Mussina and Tom Glavine are also worthy.  Mussina, in my view, is the stronger candidate, with a higher ERA+, won-loss percentage, WAR and TG Score, but Glavine will get more votes simply because of the mystical power of the 300-win mark. 

(At this point, I should reference my post from last summer that sought to answer the question, “What is the new ‘automatic ticket’ to the HOF if 300 wins is nearing extinction?”  Here’s the post where you can find the answer:  http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2013/07/automatic-ticket-for-starting-pitchers.html)

This is Jack Morris’s last year on the ballot, and I think he will get in.  He received 68% of the votes last year and usually if you achieve that level close to the end of your time on the ballot, you get the nod.  But I simply don’t view him as a HOFer.  Morris’s ERA+ of 105 is way substandard – that means his ERA was only 5% better than the league average over his entire career!  The pitchers on both sides of the HOF borderline are at a whopping 122/123.  Morris is not even close to that.  He also does not have the 270 wins that I posit is the new “automatic” standard (in case you did not read my article!).  And both his WAR and TG Score are below 50.  What he does have is an incredible Game 7 performance in the 1991 World Series, the famous 10-inning-complete-game-shutout of the Braves that gave the Twins the series.  A great Game 7 worked for Bill Mazeroski, but Joe Carter’s Game 6 walk-off Series winning homer in 1993 did not do it for him.  We’ll see about Morris.

Curt Schilling may not know how to do a video game start up, but he IS deserving of the Hall of Fame.  His OPS+ is a sterling 128 and his WAR is 76, along with a TG Score of 51.  And if you like postseason performances, his stats are far superior to Morris’s:  11-2 with a 2.23 ERA versus 7-4 with a 3.80.

Kenny Rogers picked the wrong year to retire, but he would be a substandard candidate even if the competition was not so stiff.  And Hideo Nomo is not worthy of a ballot slot, unless you consider his four strong seasons in Japan.

	W	L	PCT.	ERA+	WAR	TG Score	TG Vote
Clemens	354	184	0.658	143	134	122/77	No
Maddux	355	227	0.610	132	107	103	Yes
Mussina	270	153	0.638	123	83	77	Yes
Glavine	305	203	0.600	118	81	76	Yes
HOF	266	184	0.596	122	65	64
My borderline HOF (48-52)	219	154	0.599	123	57	50
Schilling	216	146	0.597	128	76	51	Yes
Morris	254	168	0.602	105	39	45	No
Borderline not in HOF*	195	124	0.612	117	51	42
Rogers	219	156	0.584	108	51	37	No
Nomo	123	109	0.530	97	21	-16	No

* Tiant, Guidry, Gooden, Cone, Key

RELIEF PITCHERS

I do not have a model for relief pitchers, so no TG Score here.  There have simply not been enough of them to comprise a good data set for regression modeling.  But I do give you the stats below, ranking the Top 10 relievers of all-time by WAR.  If you ever wondered if Mariano Rivera was truly the best reliever of all time, stare at this chart awhile. 

I think Lee Smith makes the grade based on this information.  He has nearly 500 saves, which is 3^rd all-time, a 132 ERA+ which is better than Gossage or Fingers.  His WAR of 30 exceeds Sutter and Fingers.  He should be in.

I don’t see Eric Gagne, Mike Timlin, Armando Benitez or Todd Jones on this list, nor should the be in the HOF.

Relief Pitchers	Saves	ERA	ERA+	WAR	HOF
Mariano Rivera	652	2.06	205	57	Not Yet Eligible
Rich Gossage	310	2.77	126	40	Yes
Hoyt Wilhelm	227	2.49	147	40	Yes
Trevor Hoffman	601	2.87	141	31	Not Yet Eligible
Lee Smith	478	2.98	132	30	On Ballot
Billy Wagner	422	2.31	187	30	Not Yet Eligible
John Franco	424	2.89	137	26	No
Bruce Sutter	300	2.83	136	25	Yes
Rollie Fingers	341	2.73	120	24	Yes
Dan Quisenberry	244	2.76	146	24	No

So, the boycott is over, the protest against the Steroid Era is by the books.  And just in time, because the floodgates are about to open, with a slew of entries in the coming years…for the Good Guys of the Steriods Era.