One can
only imagine what the political landscape might have looked like had Ted Cruz
not hatched his ill-fated “Shutdown Over Obamacare” plan, a plan that not only
squandered the government funding negotiating leverage for Republicans but
torpedoed the debt ceiling deadline as well.
The
shutdown, of course, not only failed, but more importantly, from the Republican
perspective, it also deflected attention from the Obamacare website launch
fiasco for a solid 17 days. Obama is
under direct fire now for the sloppy launch, but the fixes will come soon and
the “front page” nature of the ongoing struggle to fix it was reduced
dramatically.
Republicans
must be in agony, imagining what might have happened if the shutdown had never
occurred…
·
They
might have Republican Governor Ken Cuccinelli of Virginia right now, instead of
Hillary Clinton-surrogate Democrat Terry McAuliffe, who hung on to win by only three
points on Election Day, and who now commands the state apparatus in a crucial
swing state
·
The
Republicans might well be ahead in the “Generic Ballot” instead of a whopping
six points behind, leaving far less realistic their dreams of holding the House
and taking the Senate…and closer to losing the House
·
The
impetus to create a true “Grand Bargain” might have been ever-rising, front and
center for 2014, instead of being virtually dead. This helps no one.
This is a
classic case of overplaying one’s hand, and the amazing thing is that John
Boehner, Mitch McConnell, John McCain and the other nominal party leaders all
could see it coming, yet were powerless to stop it. I believe John Boehner and Barack Obama saw
the whole battle the same way: as a
chance to humiliate the Tea Party faction of the House, with the hope of
weakening if not destroying it. Boehner
knew that he if he offered full support of the Tea Party, he would survive as
Leader regardless of the outcome, whereas if he opposed them he risked his
position. And so he allowed Ted Cruz and
the House fanatics to take the wheel for a while, in their quest to "defund" Obamacare, and see how the test drive
went, knowing full well they would total the car.
What does
this portend for the upcoming deadlines in January (expiration of temporary government
funding) and February (debt ceiling)?
The conventional wisdom is that Congress will actually come to an
agreement in December to shift around the sequester savings, with no grand
bargain, no further spending cuts, and no tax increases, and this will be
enough to avoid any shutdown/debt ceiling messiness in early 2014. However, the cynic in me believes that the
Republicans have every incentive to continue to slow an economic rebound; they
thus may bring us to the brink once again as a means of sowing economic
uncertainty throughout 2014, and then blaming Obama for the continued
lackluster recovery into the 2014 elections.
Just a cynical thought.
And so the
shutdown battle featured no winners but the Republicans emerged as clear losers…
President
Obama’s popularity, based on 37 polls over the course of the month, dropped a
bit more, down to a net negative 6.9…the shutdown did not help him, and the website
disaster has hurt him, but on balance the net was remarkably steady.
|
Obama
Approval Rating
|
Election Day 2012
|
5-Aug
|
5-Sep
|
5-Oct
|
8-Nov
|
|
Approve
|
49.6
|
46.0
|
45.1
|
45.3
|
45.5
|
|
Disapprove
|
47.4
|
48.8
|
49.6
|
51.5
|
52.5
|
|
Net
|
2.2
|
-2.7
|
-4.5
|
-6.2
|
-6.9
|
But the
Republicans have indeed lost dramatically in terms of the generic ballot, and
the nearly 6-point margin would be enough to swing enough “in play” House districts
to give the Democrats a majority if it held through Election Day 2014.
|
Generic
Congressional Ballot
|
Election Day 2012
|
5-Aug
|
5-Sep
|
5-Oct
|
8-Nov
|
|
Democrat
|
46.3
|
40.5
|
38.4
|
41.9
|
45.2
|
|
Republican
|
46.0
|
39.5
|
38.8
|
38.4
|
39.5
|
|
Net
|
0.3
|
1.0
|
-0.4
|
3.4
|
5.7
|
The
Affordable Care Act is actually rising a bit in popularity, despite the website
disaster. Opposition has dipped below
50% and the “net negative” is down into the single digits. Imagine if the website actually worked! (Keep in mind that virtually every state
website actually does work, just
fine.)
|
Obamacare
|
Election Day 2012
|
5-Aug
|
5-Sep
|
5-Oct
|
8-Nov
|
|
For/Favor
|
40.0
|
39.7
|
41.0
|
39.8
|
41.6
|
|
Oppose/Against
|
50.8
|
51.6
|
52.0
|
51.7
|
49.3
|
|
Net
|
-10.8
|
-11.9
|
-11.0
|
-11.8
|
-7.6
|
And the
Econometer suffered a modest setback, driven entirely by sinking consumer confidence,
which in turn was driven by the chaos in Washington
|
Econometer
|
Election Day 2012
|
5-Aug
|
5-Sep
|
5-Oct
|
8-Nov
|
|
Econometer
|
0.0
|
33.3
|
32.1
|
34.0
|
27.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unemployment Rate
|
7.9
|
7.4
|
7.3
|
7.2
|
7.3
|
|
Consumer Confidence
|
73.1
|
80.3
|
81.5
|
79.7
|
71.2
|
|
Price of Gas
|
3.71
|
3.72
|
3.65
|
3.59
|
3.40
|
|
Dow Jones
|
13,330
|
15,506
|
15,098
|
15,308
|
15,395
|
|
GDP
|
3.1
|
2.5
|
2.5
|
2.5
|
2.8
|
Obviously
we are a full year from Election Day 2014 and much can change. But this month was a clear win for the
Democrats, against all odds, as the Republicans squandered an opportunity to
use the Obamacare launch as a gigantic springboard but instead overshadowed the
launch with the shutdown – ironically, over a last gasp attempt to “defund”
Obamacare.
