Senate Not An Easy "Hold" for Democrats in 2014 (October 27, 2013)

The Republicans’ dream scenario is this:  hold the House in 2014, win the Senate in 2014, and take the Presidency in 2016.  And even with the backlash from the government shutdown disproportionately falling on Republicans…even with a growing Hispanic population that is increasingly Democratic…it is not as far-fetched a dream as you might think.  In fact, it is alarmingly possible.

With Election Day 2014 roughly a year away, this is the first of several posts over the next month that will take the latest look at the Senate, the House, the GOP Presidential field, the Democratic field and the 2016 race itself.   First up, the Senate, and it’s simply not as safe as you might think.

With the recent election of Cory Booker as the Democratic Senator from New Jersey (replacing a Republican appointee who in turn had replaced the late Democrat Fran Lautenberg), the Dems hold a commanding 55-45 margin in the Senate (including the two independents that sit with the Democrats in caucus).  Based on my analysis of recent polling, the following chart summarizes where we stand.  (Note that most of the Senate polling has been conducted by Public Policy Polling.)

Democrats Total	52
Dem Not Up	34
Dem Solid	11
Dem Lean	4
Dem Tossup	3
Rep Tossup	2
Rep Lean	3
Rep Solid	12
Rep Not Up	31
Republicans Total	48

The Democrats have 34 incumbents not up for election, and 11 more races that will almost surely stay blue in 2014, for a total of 45 “in the bag.”  The Republicans have 31 holdovers and 12 certain red wins, adding up to 43 solid red.  So the real battle for control of the Senate will come among 12 “battleground” contests.  Republicans have to win 8 of these 12 to take the Senate…and they could.

But at this point, with one year to go, I see seven of them going to the Democrats, meaning the Democrats will hold the Senate by a reduced margin, only 52-48. 

Here is the full chart of every race, and the latest polling in the battleground states, and then follows a brief profile of each battleground race as it stands now.  The blue rows are the solid Democratic races, the white are the battlegrounds, and the red rows are solid Republican.

	Incumb.		Retiring/	Dem	Rep	Poll	Current
State	Party	Incumb.	Running	Cand.	Cand.	Margin	Status
Colorado	D	Udall	Running	Udall			Solid Dem
Delaware	D	Coons	Running	Coons			Solid Dem
Hawaii	D	Schatz	Running	Schatz			Solid Dem
Illinois	D	Durbin	Running	Durbin			Solid Dem
Massachusetts	D	Markey	Running	Markey			Solid Dem
Minnesota	D	Franken	Running	Franken			Solid Dem
New Mexico	D	Udall	Running	Udall			Solid Dem
Oregon	D	Merkley	Running	Merkley			Solid Dem
Rhode Island	D	Reed	Running	Reed			Solid Dem
Virginia	D	Warner	Running	Warner			Solid Dem
New Jersey	D	Booker	Running	Booker			Solid Dem
Michigan	D	Levin	Retiring	Peters	Land	Dem +7	Lean Dem
Alaska	D	Begich	Running	Begich	Palin/Treadwell	Dem +6	Lean Dem
North Carolina	D	Hagan	Running	Hagan	(Generic)	Dem +5	Lean Dem
New Hampshire	D	Shaheen	Running	Shaheen	Brown	Dem +4	Lean Dem
Iowa	D	Harkin	Retiring	Braley	(Generic)	Dem +4	Tossup Dem
Louisiana	D	Landrieu	Running	Landrieu	Cassidy	Dem +4	Tossup Dem
Arkansas	D	Pryor	Running	Pryor	Cotton	Dem +2	Tossup Dem
Kentucky	R	McConnell	Running	Grimes	McConnell	Dem +2	Tossup Rep
Georgia	R	Chambliss	Retiring	Nunn	Generic	Even	Tossup Rep
South Dakota	D	Johnson	Retiring	Weiland	Rounds	Rep + 6	Lean Rep
West Virginia	D	Rockefeller	Retiring	Tennant	Capito	Rep + 14	Lean Rep
Montana	D	Baucus	Retiring	Juneau/Lindeen	Racicot	Rep +15	Lean Rep
Alabama	R	Sessions	Running		Sessions		Solid Rep
Idaho	R	Risch	Running		Risch		Solid Rep
Kansas	R	Roberts	Running		Roberts		Solid Rep
Maine	R	Collins	Running		Collins		Solid Rep
Mississippi	R	Cochran	?		?		Solid Rep
Nebraska	R	Johanns	Retiring		?		Solid Rep
Oklahoma	R	Inhofe	Running		Inhofe		Solid Rep
South Carolina	R	Graham	Running		Graham		Solid Rep
South Carolina	R	Scott	Running		Scott		Solid Rep
Tennessee	R	Alexander	Running		Alexander		Solid Rep
Texas	R	Cornyn	Running		Cornyn		Solid Rep
Wyoming	R	Enzi	Running		Enzi		Solid Rep

You will note that most of the battleground states are now held by Democrats, ten of them, versus only two by Republicans.  Five Democrats are retiring, versus only one Republican.

There are two states that can barely be considered “battleground,” since Republicans have large leads in West Virginia and Montana, where two long-serving Democrats are retiring, Jay Rockefeller and Max Baucus.  Both of these races have been closer at times than now, and neither have recent polls reflecting the anti-Republican backlash from the shutdown battle, which is a real factor – for now.  So it is too soon to let them slip into the “certain red” category.

When looking at the “generic ballot” – when pollsters ask voters whether they would vote for a nameless Democrat or Republican in a congressional election -- you can see the strength of that backlash.  The Democrats are now up 5.6 points, a sharp change from the relative evenness of this measure since Election Day 2012.  That kind of swing is of a “sea change” magnitude and would have profound implications on the 2014 elections if it holds.

Generic Congressional Ballot	7-Nov	5-Aug	5-Sep	5-Oct	5-Nov
Democrat	46.3	40.5	38.4	41.9	45.4
Republican	46.0	39.5	38.8	38.4	39.8
Net	0.3	1.0	-0.4	3.4	5.6

BATTLEGROUND STATES

Here is a brief review of the 12 battleground Senate elections in 2014:

·        Alaska:  Democratic incumbent Mark Begish has a relatively secure lead over several potential Republican challengers, including Sarah Palin.

·        Arkansas:  Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor is barely ahead (within the margin of error) in a red state the GOP would love to swipe.  Representative Tom Cotton is the likely Republican candidate in a race that has been very close in every poll.

·        Georgia:  A fascinating race to replace the retiring Republican Saxby Chambliss features Democrat Michelle Nunn, daughter of Sam, a political neophyte (she runs a “Points of Light” volunteer organization) versus several potential Republican candidates who are currently representatives (e.g., Phil Gingrey).  These House members have just cast very unpopular pro-shutdown votes that are already hurting them in the polls, a trend hardly unique to Georgia.

·        Iowa:  Democratic Representative Bruce Braley seems to be on fairly solid footing to retain the seat currently held by retiring Democrat Tom Harkin.  No frontrunner has emerged yet for the Republicans.

·        Kentucky:  Is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell really in trouble?  At this juncture, yes.  Alison Lunderman Grimes is running a strong campaign and is now neck-and-neck in the polls, but McConnell sure knows how to get down and dirty down the stretch.  I can’t see him losing, but this will be a barnburner.

·        Louisiana:  Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu is looking reasonably strong in a tight race with Republican Representative Bill Cassidy, another race where a pro-shutdown vote could hurt the challenger.

·        Michigan:  Democratic Representative Gary Peters has taken a relatively commanding lead over former state Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land in the race to replace yet another retiring Democratic incumbent, Carl Levin.  Land had been ahead in this race in earlier polling, but a post-shutdown poll showed a big swing to Peters.

·        Montana:  Democratic hopes for holding onto retiring incumbent Max Baucus’s seat in this red state took a hit when popular former Governor Brian Schweitzer decided to sit this one out (perhaps while testing Presidential ambitions).  That leaves an unknown field to do battle (potentially) with another former governor, Republican Mark Racicot or Representative Steve Daines.

·        New Hampshire:  The only reason for designating this as a “battleground” state is the potential entry of former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown into the race.  Brown has a residence in New Hampshire and has been making many appearances.  Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaneen handles the rest of the field handily but is only up four points on Brown.

·        North Carolina:  Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan caught a break when Republican Representative Virginia Foxx decided not to run, leaving the Republicans scrambling to find a candidate.  Hagan leads a generic opponent by five.

·        South Dakota:  Democratic incumbent Tim Johnson is also retiring, and former Governor Mike Rounds has a decent lead over former Tom Daschle staffer Rick Weiland in this red state.  An easy switch for the Republicans.

·        West Virginia:  Democratic incumbent Jay Rockefeller is also retiring.  Republican representative Shirley Moore Capito has a huge lead over state Democratic Secretary of State Natalie Tennant.  That lead was only five points a few months ago but now it is up to 15.

While we are only a year away, it is still early.  We are months away from declarations of intentions (by and large), primaries and campaigns.  But make no mistake, despite many Republican self-inflicted wounds, there is no easy path to keeping the Senate in Democrat control at his juncture.