Second
terms are often a time for restless presidents to turn their attention to
foreign affairs. Often mired in scandal,
with slipping poll numbers and reduced political capital to further their domestic
agendas, overseas becomes the only venue in which presidents can flex their
muscles, demonstrate their acumen and burnish their legacies. They are not always successful (Clinton failed to win a new Middle East
peace treaty, and Reagan bumbled his way into Iran-Contra), but that is where
they want to play.
President
Obama has not followed this approach, but it has found him anyway. Obama was itching for immigration reform,
eager to take on the GOP in the next round of deficit/budget wars, and kick-off
what he hoped would be a successful start of state health care exchanges to
seal his legacy, when all hell broke loose in the Middle
East. First, Egypt melted
down yet again, catching the Administration with a no-win position – back a
coup, or cut off military aid to an old ally?
But then
Assad decided to dump a load of chemical weapons on civilians, and the world
was a witness to the unspeakable horror of irrefutable pictures and videos of
the victims, including over 400 children.
And everything changed. This is now
the biggest story of 2013.
Much is
being made of Obama’s supposed self-inflicted wound of drawing a “red line” for
use of chemical weapons in an apparently unscripted moment in 2012. But I feel quite certain that we would be in
the exact same place even if Obama had never uttered those words. The universal revulsion of the use of
chemical weapons both in concept and in fact – as evidenced by those gruesome
pictures alone – would have demanded this dialogue. And Obama was correct in asserting that the
“red line” was actually drawn in various international treaties ratified by the
U.S. Congress.
Parliament’s
rejection of David Cameron’s call for action and Russia’s unwillingness to back U.N.
Security Council resolutions isolated Obama internationally, and basically forced
him into the position of seeking allies somewhere, anywhere – even the U.S.
Congress, of all places. And there the
terrain is fraught with peril, albeit along rather unusual lines, with John
Boehner and John McCain supporting him (presuming tougher language in the
authorization) while liberal Democrats, fearful of a “yes” vote post-Iraq and
pre-2014 elections (with their constituents opposed), are torn. And House Republicans, toughest of all to win
support for anything Obama, seem to be
shrugging, “not my fight, man.”
The
political implications of all of this are fairly clear. Win or lose, Obama is spending the political
capital he was saving for the deficit/debt ceiling/budget fights, which are set
to occur in October. And the calendar
for the Syria
vote is crowding out and delaying all other domestic priorities. If Obama wins Congress, we head off into
uncharted waters, and if he loses, his influence dwindles all the more. Heads I lose, tails….
Obama’s
popularity ratings continue to decline, still modestly but materially, and he
is now a net -4.5 from a +2.2 on Election Day 2012. Gallup
points out that all recent Presidents showed “summer slumps” but that is small
comfort. Apart from a steadily improving
economy there has been little good news for Obama in the face of NSA, IRS, AP
and no good options in Egypt
and Syria. Even fighting with Putin has not looked
particularly good, though I did like the Obama quote that Putin’s body language
looks like the “bored kid in the back of the classroom.” I gather Putin was quite enraged by that dig.
Obama
Approval Rating
|
7-Nov
|
8-Jun
|
8-Jul
|
5-Aug
|
5-Sep
|
Approve
|
49.6
|
48.0
|
46.0
|
46.0
|
45.1
|
Disapprove
|
47.4
|
47.1
|
48.7
|
48.8
|
49.6
|
Net
|
2.2
|
1.0
|
-2.7
|
-2.7
|
-4.6
|
The
Econometer continues to look good, weighing in at a +32.1 versus Election Day
2012. Friday’s unemployment figures
continued at their consistently positive-but-not-good-enough rate, and the
unemployment rate itself dipped to 7.3%.
The Dow took a tumble with continued threats of money tightening by the
Fed, but that was offset by lower gas prices and slight upticks in consumer
confidence and the aforementioned jobs numbers, as well as a healthier GDP
number (2.5%).
Econometer
|
7-Nov
|
8-Jun
|
8-Jul
|
5-Aug
|
5-Sep
|
Econometer
|
0.0
|
23.9
|
27.5
|
33.3
|
32.2
|
Unemployment Rate
|
7.9
|
7.6
|
7.6
|
7.4
|
7.3
|
Consumer Confidence
|
73.1
|
76.2
|
81.4
|
80.3
|
81.5
|
Price of Gas
|
3.71
|
3.70
|
3.64
|
3.72
|
3.65
|
Dow Jones
|
13,330
|
15,230
|
15,013
|
15,506
|
15,105
|
GDP
|
3.1
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
2.5
|
2.5
|
We have no
new numbers on the 2016 Presidential race, so Hillary and Rand Paul continue to
be the frontrunners. Shortly I will do a
complete Senate update but here is the word:
Democrats, get ready to do some work, because it is entirely within the
realm of possibility that we could lose the Senate in 2014. You may hate the far right, and the
stalemates that have characterized Washington
of late, correctly attributed to the Republicans. But the election map is NOT, I repeat NOT
favorable. Stay tuned!
