It is, to
be sure, a slow month when the top political story is a Senate fight over the
fate of the filibuster. But such is life
in July in Washington
·
The
filibuster process indeed remained intact (that is, the so-called “nuclear
option” was avoided) through a deal that allowed passage of a number of major President
Obama appointments that the Republicans were heretofore refusing to
consider. (An editorial comments: this is not the type of news that
penetrates the national consciousness, but I, for one, am glad the filibuster
rules remained in place. They do
contribute to the glacial congressional pace, but I’d hate to think of what
could happen without it if the Republicans won the presidency and control of
both houses of Congress, hardly an unlikely possibility).
·
The
wheel of fortune spun once again in the Middle East ,
where the “coup-that-isn’t-a-military-coup-because-if-it-was-we’d-have-to-cut-off-$1.5
billion-in-foreign-aid-to-Egypt” occurred, tossing Morsi and Islamic
Brotherhood out of power. The U.S.
·
President
Obama spoke out on the Trayvan Martin case, an unannounced drop-by the press
room in the White House (virtually unprecedented for this President) on a
Friday afternoon, after much pressure from the African-American community. Obama spoke eloquently and mostly off the
cuff in expressing his view that Martin “could have been me 30 years ago,” and
offering a litany of everyday slights faced by African-American males that he
himself has experienced.
But perhaps
the biggest news of the month was related to the tortured path of immigration
legislation, and the (underreported) effect it might be having on Marco Rubio’s
potential presidential run. In June the
Senate passed a sweeping immigration reform bill by an overwhelming margin with
full bi-partisan support (68-32, including 14 Republicans). The bill featured a pathway to citizenship
for the 13+ million undocumented immigrants in our country.
The House
refused to take up this specific bill, instead beginning work on their own, a
piecemeal effort (rather than comprehensive reform) that appears to be
cynically motivated – that is, the objective is to get Democrats to record a
“Nay” vote on popular subsets of the issue (such as a path to immigration for undocumented
children) rather than actually achieve any reform at all. Democrats and their supporters (including big
business) know that only comprehensive reform will begin to meet the need. But the Republican House seems intent on
continuing their path of principle over compromise. And thus the Republicans are in real danger
of cementing their status as a minority party and jeopardizing their ability to
ever win a Presidency that could have otherwise been within their grasp. You just can’t win the White House by
capturing only 27% of the Hispanic vote, a la Mitt Romney.
This makes
for quite a difficult time for Marco Rubio, whether the Senate bill becomes law
or not. The promise of his rise rested
on his ability to walk the tightrope, as he is, of course, a deeply
conservative Hispanic, and a youthful, savvy and telegenic one at that. But now that he has voted for the Senate bill
– indeed he was one of the “Gang of Eight” that crafted it – he is seeing his
popularity erode among Republicans in the 2016 polls. Below is a series of polls from Public Policy
Polling (PPP), which show that Rubio is now in sixth – sixth -- in the
Republican polls, after leading in every poll since the November, 2012
election. His support is now half of
what it was – which was hardly dominant to begin with – and Rand Paul and Ted
Cruz are the purest voices on the right (both voted “Nay” on the Senate bill). Rand Paul now leads the polls.
Dec
|
Jan
|
Feb
|
Apr
|
May
|
Jun
|
Aug
|
|
Paul
|
7
|
5
|
10
|
17
|
16
|
14
|
16
|
Christie
|
14
|
14
|
13
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
13
|
Bush
|
12
|
14
|
13
|
12
|
11
|
15
|
13
|
Ryan
|
12
|
16
|
15
|
12
|
15
|
9
|
13
|
Cruz
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
12
|
Rubio
|
18
|
21
|
22
|
21
|
20
|
16
|
10
|
Other/DK
|
37
|
30
|
27
|
23
|
24
|
31
|
23
|
Digging
deeper into the PPP data (and I believe I may be the only one who has done so,
since you have to get into the cross-tabs!), the divisions along the Republican
spectrum are clear (below). The
Republicans have six bona-fide (if unannounced as yet) candidates, and they put
the 2012 primary field to shame. It is
simply a much stronger field…every candidate is arguably stronger than Mitt
Romney, and while Ted Cruz is a right-wing nut, he is far more articulate and commanding
than say, Rick Santorum, or (trying not to snicker) Rick Perry, Herman Cain or
Michelle Bachmann.
Chris
Christie and Jeb Bush represent the moderate wing of the party – such as it is
– and Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Rubio and Cruz are the arch-conservatives. The only good news for Chris Christie is that
there are so many of them on the far right, they could divide their votes
enough for Christie to squeak through the primaries to the nomination. (The idea of the New Jersey Governor squeaking
through anything, even with his somewhat reduced girth, is quite an image.)
Check out
this chart. Republican voters
self-report into three groups….about a quarter of them describe themselves as
“liberal” or “moderate,” 40% as “somewhat conservative” and 35% as “very
conservative.” Predictably, Chris
Christie leads the moderate group, with Jeb Bush right behind him. But look at the “very conservatives”: Ted Cruz is top of the heap, closely trailed
by Rand Paul and Paul Ryan. Marco
Rubio? Down at 8%. That’s in Chris Christie land. Is Rubio being squeezed out, essentially on
his immigration stand?
Liberal/
|
Somewhat
|
Very
|
||
Total
|
Moderate
|
Conserv.
|
Conserv.
|
|
100
|
25
|
40
|
35
|
|
Paul
|
16
|
11
|
16
|
18
|
Bush
|
13
|
17
|
13
|
12
|
Christie
|
13
|
21
|
13
|
7
|
Ryan
|
13
|
10
|
13
|
17
|
Cruz
|
12
|
10
|
7
|
20
|
Rubio
|
10
|
5
|
14
|
8
|
Other/DK
|
20
|
15
|
22
|
18
|
PPP also did
a recent (July 11) poll in Iowa Iowa
Paul
|
18
|
Christie
|
16
|
Ryan
|
15
|
Bush
|
14
|
Rubio
|
11
|
Cruz
|
10
|
Other/DK
|
16
|
Another not
widely known, fascinating tidbit: Rubio
may be a budding rock star for the diversity play he seems to bring to the GOP,
but among Hispanics, he is just another Republican candidate. On the basic “favorable/unfavorable”
question, he is middle of the pack at best among Hispanics, a net negative on
balance, and far less favorably viewed than Chris Christie. (Note this data includes both Democrats and
Republicans.)
Favorable/Unfavorable
|
||
Total
|
Hispanics
|
|
Paul
|
33/39
|
31/43
|
Bush
|
33/41
|
37/41
|
Christie
|
42/28
|
48/31
|
Ryan
|
35/40
|
30/50
|
Cruz
|
15/27
|
25/36
|
Rubio
|
32/33
|
34/41
|
The rest of
the monthly data shows little change from June…
ECONOMETER
The
Econometer continues to move favorably, inching upward from 27.5 to 32.5 on the
strength of a rising stock market and falling unemployment, solidly in the blue. (If you are new to the site, see the far
right column toward the bottom for an explanation of the “Econometer.”)
Econometer
|
7-Nov
|
8-May
|
8-Jun
|
8-Jul
|
5-Aug
|
Econometer
|
0.0
|
12.8
|
23.9
|
27.5
|
30.3
|
Unemployment Rate
|
7.9
|
7.5
|
7.6
|
7.6
|
7.4
|
Consumer Confidence
|
73.1
|
68.1
|
76.2
|
81.4
|
80.3
|
Price of Gas
|
3.71
|
3.62
|
3.70
|
3.64
|
3.72
|
Dow Jones
|
13,330
|
14,747
|
15,230
|
15,013
|
15,506
|
GDP
|
3.1
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
1.7
|
OBAMA
APPROVAL RATING
There were
28 new polls in July, but no change in Obama’s approval rating numbers. He remains in net negative land despite
continued economic uplift.
Obama
Approval Rating
|
7-Nov
|
8-May
|
8-Jun
|
8-Jul
|
5-Aug
|
Approve
|
49.6
|
50.9
|
48.0
|
46.0
|
46.0
|
Disapprove
|
47.4
|
48.0
|
47.1
|
48.7
|
48.8
|
Net
|
2.2
|
2.9
|
1.0
|
-2.7
|
-2.3
|
GENERIC
CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT
The Democrats
have inched back in the lead in the so-called Congressional Generic Ballot.
Republicans, but their ballot position has held steady throughout that battle
and others. It has also held steady
through the improving economy and the growing impatience with the Republican
“debt-first” economic theory.
Generic
Congressional Ballot
|
7-Nov
|
8-May
|
8-Jun
|
8-Jul
|
5-Aug
|
Democrat
|
46.3
|
40.7
|
42.0
|
39.3
|
40.5
|
Republican
|
46.0
|
38.3
|
40.0
|
41.3
|
39.5
|
Net
|
0.3
|
2.4
|
2.0
|
-2.0
|
1.0
|
2016
PRESIDENTIAL POLLS
We have
reviewed the Republican side of the race already. The Democratic side remains as it was, with
Hillary Clinton easily lapping the field.
She did take a few body blows over Benghazi
Presidential
Preference - Dem.
|
7-Dec
|
8-May
|
8-Jun
|
8-Jul
|
5-Aug
|
61
|
64
|
63
|
63
|
52
|
|
Biden
|
12
|
18
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
4
|
5
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
|
Gillebrand
|
5
|
||||
Booker
|
3
|
||||
Cuomo
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
2
|
Schweitzer
|
2
|
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